Speculation: Copp's future?

[KingBogo]

Well the assumption is that we would trade Copp and get something in return, not just throw him into the wind.

I’ve seen people mostly promoting getting players or picks we won’t need to protect so we can keep Apples. No one is going to trade a difference maker that doesn’t need to protected as those are like gold.

 

[Mathil8]

Assuming Copp won't sign, its a simple matter of determining his trade value and weighing that against the players you want to keep.

A lot of posters think Copp is worth a 2nd. Would you trade Appleton, Demelo or Stanley for a 2nd? If not, we should expose Copp assuming no mutually agreeable side deals.

I think most posters have been valuing him as a late 1st, or two 2nds. At that price, yes I would trade Appleton, DeMelo, or Stanley for that.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I think most posters have been valuing him as a late 1st, or two 2nds. At that price, yes I would trade Appleton, DeMelo, or Stanley for that.

Appleton DeMelo Stanley all appear to want to be here. Apples and Stan in particular did time on the Moose. Copp? Does he want to be here? Is he pricing himself out? Is he a top 6 or a 3rd line guy who did most of his scoring early on pp2. How much is he worth long term when Perfetti is a dude who will be top 6. I guarantee the forward we take at 17 if we go that route is top 6 in a couple years too. Jets draft well. Apples is a solid bottom 6 guy who seems to mesh with Lowry and is cheaper and will be and also pk and pp also. They like him. I wouldn't be shocked honestly if Appleton is protected over Copp but Copp isn't taken.. niku or ahl contract is and Copp goes to Seattle for either picks or a D man. Miller Murphy types.

 

[Mathil8]

Appleton DeMelo Stanley all appear to want to be here. Apples and Stan in particular did time on the Moose. Copp? Does he want to be here? Is he pricing himself out? Is he a top 6 or a 3rd line guy who did most of his scoring early on pp2. How much is he worth long term when Perfetti is a dude who will be top 6. I guarantee the forward we take at 17 if we go that route is top 6 in a couple years too. Jets draft well. Apples is a solid bottom 6 guy who seems to mesh with Lowry and is cheaper and will be and also pk and pp also. They like him. I wouldn't be shocked honestly if Appleton is protected over Copp but Copp isn't taken.. niku or ahl contract is and Copp goes to Seattle for either picks or a D man. Miller Murphy types.

Copp's value is simply higher than that of an Appleton/Stanley/DeMelo. I get where you're coming from, and maybe they will expose Copp if they can't get expected value for him (if it comes down to trading him). Otherwise, it would be bad asset management to let someone of Copp's value go in the expansion draft. What I could see happening is Seattle paying us a 2nd rounder to expose Copp, in that scenario we lose Copp but gain a 2nd and get to keep Appleton/Stanley/DeMelo. Then it's like we've lost a 2nd round pick in the expansion draft, which is about the value you would expect.

 

[schmockeyknife]

Copp's value is simply higher than that of an Appleton/Stanley/DeMelo. I get where you're coming from, and maybe they will expose Copp if they can't get expected value for him (if it comes down to trading him). Otherwise, it would be bad asset management to let someone of Copp's value go in the expansion draft. What I could see happening is Seattle paying us a 2nd rounder to expose Copp, in that scenario we lose Copp but gain a 2nd and get to keep Appleton/Stanley/DeMelo. Then it's like we've lost a 2nd round pick in the expansion draft, which is about the value you would expect.

for sure if the kraken heads agree to those terms

 

[GaryPoppins]

Nice thread team, good healthy discussion.

Zero idea where this is going with Copp.

This.

 

[Guffman]

I think most posters have been valuing him as a late 1st, or two 2nds. At that price, yes I would trade Appleton, DeMelo, or Stanley for that.

I doubt we would get 2 2nds before the expansion draft since that would eat another team’s protected slots. So, if we are forced to protect Copp, we’re losing another roster player.

Great, we’re one man down and now we’re looking to trade Copp. Overcharge might play the same game he did with Trouba to limit trade destinations. What are we getting for Copp at this point? Whatever we get, will we then be able to peddle that to fill the hole left at expansion draft?

It just seems to cause a lot of uncertainty just to try and squeeze a tiny bit of trade juice out of Copp.

I’d really consider just exposing Copp and move on.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Comparing copp to trouba? Why? Trouba is a top 4 rhd. Copp is 3rd line ideally for most teams

 

[Adam da bomb]

Copp's value is simply higher than that of an Appleton/Stanley/DeMelo. I get where you're coming from, and maybe they will expose Copp if they can't get expected value for him (if it comes down to trading him). Otherwise, it would be bad asset management to let someone of Copp's value go in the expansion draft. What I could see happening is Seattle paying us a 2nd rounder to expose Copp, in that scenario we lose Copp but gain a 2nd and get to keep Appleton/Stanley/DeMelo. Then it's like we've lost a 2nd round pick in the expansion draft, which is about the value you would expect.

How is a 3rd liner worth more than a top 4 d which demelo is?

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I could see him getting taken by the Kraken and signs a contract long-term there.

But unless Winnipeg comes to terms with Copp I see him getting traded to a contender or a team with lots of cap room. If he's traded to a contender I see him headed to the Islanders, if he's taking the money I see him heading to the Red Wings.

 

[Yogi141]

But is he really a traditional 3rd liner? He took a big step last year with a career year.. And the "3rd line" is often first off the bench and often matches with other teams best players. Major reason Jets were able to shut down McDavid.

I think we as fans sometimes get hung up on perceived labels. 2nd line, 3rd line, 1A,1B, etc. Our 3rd line is better than alot of other teams 2nd lines IMO.

So question for you, if Copp ends up in the top 6 in SEA or on another team, is he then "suddenly" worth 5 million?

I wasn't suggesting that he wasn't worth $5 million, I was just stating that we would have to believe that he would slot into the open second line spot if we sign him for that. The salary cap means that we can only spend so much and if we spend $5 million on Copp, then somewhere else on the roster we have to spend less. Maybe that less is on the second line. If Perfetti or Vesalainen can take Stastny's place then maybe we can afford to pay Copp that much, but don't expect to pay Copp $5 million and then resign Stastny or sign two to 4 defensemen.

 

[Whileee]

So, by this time tomorrow, we might find that 34% of voters were wrong (including me).

But, Chevy does tend to grind everything to a deadline, so...

 

[Jetsfan79]

I wasn't suggesting that he wasn't worth $5 million, I was just stating that we would have to believe that he would slot into the open second line spot if we sign him for that. The salary cap means that we can only spend so much and if we spend $5 million on Copp, then somewhere else on the roster we have to spend less. Maybe that less is on the second line. If Perfetti or Vesalainen can take Stastny's place then maybe we can afford to pay Copp that much, but don't expect to pay Copp $5 million and then resign Stastny or sign two to 4 defensemen.

I'm a Copp fan so I'm admittedly biased. If the difference is 1 million, I make it work. Even if means trading away Brossoit who makes 1.5 and getting a young or veteran backup at minimum salary.

 

[KingBogo]

The majority of picks still on a Copp trade by July 17. I guess it will be a busy day around here.

 

[GreenLine]

I'd rather lose Copp for nothing and keep Appleton (who I think is ready for a breakout season) than overpay Copp and lose Appleton or Demelo.

Losing Copp for nothing is not that bad. Trading him before the expansion draft clearly wasn't an option because most teams had their own protection issues to consider, so the return would've been terrible and then the Jets still would've lost someone else for nothing.

Every team has to lose someone.

 

[GumbyCan2]

If Jets lose Demelo, that is totally on Chevy, his decisions exposing him. I take it he must have a plan for a new rhs top-4 RD in the works some where, some how? Not like Chevy, especially after 2 years of failed attempts to upgrade the defense core since a mass exodus, to expose a viable rhs Dman without plans in place in case of such players departure.
Who is in the works, hmmm...? And I don't mean a resigning of Tucker Poolman either. May happen but not relevant to this.

 

[voyageur]

Wouldn't it surprise people if Copp signed long term? Not expecting it, but that would be a key piece of our forward group. My inclination is the Jets are going to start him out top 6, maybe alternate him with Vesalainen at times, because Lowry-Copp anybody is a good checking line. But the eventual end game is for Perfetti to join the top 6, and I think the Jets would be comfortable with that by the time he is 20 (the age Scheifele became a regular). That would allow Copp to walk, and the Jets to replace him.

In the meantime you can have Toninato/Harkins play wing with Lowry, and have Vesalainen and Gustafsson together (hopefully because they work well together), and you are trying to fill in a couple of spots, that aren't big game hunting. More role players, special teamers.

 

[10Ducky10]

Wouldn't it surprise people if Copp signed long term? Not expecting it, but that would be a key piece of our forward group. My inclination is the Jets are going to start him out top 6, maybe alternate him with Vesalainen at times, because Lowry-Copp anybody is a good checking line. But the eventual end game is for Perfetti to join the top 6, and I think the Jets would be comfortable with that by the time he is 20 (the age Scheifele became a regular). That would allow Copp to walk, and the Jets to replace him.

In the meantime you can have Toninato/Harkins play wing with Lowry, and have Vesalainen and Gustafsson together (hopefully because they work well together), and you are trying to fill in a couple of spots, that aren't big game hunting. More role players, special teamers.

If Copper is still here, I see KV playing with Lowry and Copper.

 

[surixon]

Well I hope we either see a contract for Copp today or he is dealt. I'm not going to be happy if Chevy allows this to drag into the summer. It gives Copp 100% of the leverage.

 

[Daximus]

Well I hope we either see a contract for Copp today or he is dealt. I'm not going to be happy if Chevy allows this to drag into the summer. It gives Copp 100% of the leverage.

I think the return for Copp would be similar to the return for Buchnevic. 26 year old winger, 1 year away from UFA, RFA this summer, really broke out in the covid shortened season, looking for a big raise. If we can get a 2nd today and a younger replacement winger for him that could be the best we get if we don't keep him.

 

[surixon]

I think the return for Copp would be similar to the return for Buchnevic. 26 year old winger, 1 year away from UFA, RFA this summer, really broke out in the covid shortened season, looking for a big raise. If we can get a 2nd today and a younger replacement winger for him that could be the best we get if we don't keep him.

Difference is that Copp can also play C which adds some value imo. Still last thing you want is him arbing his way to UFA.

 

[Daximus]

Difference is that Copp can also play C which adds some value imo. Still last thing you want is him arbing his way to UFA.

Yeah that might bump his value to upgrading that replacement player but I don't think by much.

 

[Krauser]

I wonder if the Jets will be more willing to pay up to keep Copp long-term as a middle-6 forward ($5M per year or so) now that they've drafted more players who may be able to contribute in the top 6 while on their ELCs.

Over the long run, the top 6 can be projected to include Scheifele, Ehlers, Connor and Dubois, plus 2 of Perfetti, Lucius and maybe Torgersson or Chibrikov.

Wheeler will probably spend 1-2 more years in the top 6 (whether he deserves to or not, he will). With Perfetti, Lucius and others likely 1-3 years away, the Jets need another forward who can play top 6 in the short term and push down to the 3rd line in the longer term.

Copp would be a good fit for that role. They could pay him for 2nd line usage for the next 2-3 years, which would leave him slightly overpaid beyond that, assuming he'd be dropping down to the 3rd line by that point.

But with a top 6 that's signed to reasonable deals (until Scheifele gets an expensive extension) including a couple of cheap young players, the Jets could afford to to pay both Lowry and Copp well to play on the 3rd line -- especially if they're joined in the bottom 6 by other cheap young forwards on ELCs (including Gustafsson, Vesalainen, Torgersson, and Chibrikov).

Connor - Scheifele - Ehlers
Perfetti - Dubois - Lucius
Copp - Lowry - Torgersson
Vesalainen - Gustafsson - Chibrikov

If the Jets don't extend Copp, they'll probably need to pay a similar price to add a 2nd line winger for the next couple of years, as Wheeler is aging out and the recent draft picks are still developing.

So if Copp wants to stay, I think they might as well pay him and give him that role. They know he can be effective with 2nd line usage and he'll make a good 3rd liner in the latter years of his contract once the young guys push him out of the top 6.

 

[GumbyCan2]

So, after the Sam Bennett signing, equalling 4.4$ mil per year, Jets need to start at 4.5 $mil per for Copp.
Or, its straight to arbitration and ovef 4$mil on a 1 year and he will walk for zippo back, into UFA.
If not valued higher by Chevy/ownership/TNSE, he will hold out and walk away, hurting the Jets present and future. Nobody to blame except Jets org, "acting like they listen to sorrowful, unaware "Winnipeg bargain- beater" fans."

 

[ps241]

I am a bit surprised the vast majority of our board thinks he’s being traded? That may well happen for many of the good reasons laid out but I am way less sure he is moving than most. Copp is a heck of a two way forward on a team where too many of our guys don’t defend well enough.

we shall see I guess.