Hockey Outsider
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- Jan 16, 2005
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I looked at their scoring breakdowns and that doesn't seem to be case.Kuznetsov may have put up more points but he was inconsistent and a more one dimensional player. Kuznetsov looked great when the team was rolling, as in he'd put he'd put up 3-4 points in games where the Caps dominated. But in tight games Ovechkin was the main guy dragging the team to victory. It was like Marner leading the Leafs in playoff points last year, because he piled up points in blowout games.
In the 2018 playoffs, Ovechkin and Kuznetsov scored/assisted on the go-ahead goal 14 times each. They scored/assisted on the goal that gave Washington a two goal lead 7 times each. They scored/assisted on the goal that gave the Capitals a three goal lead 3 times each. That's 24-24, exactly even.
The difference in their production is due to:
- Kuznetsov cutting an opponent's lead twice vs Ovechkin doing so once
- Game 3 vs Tampa - Kuznetsov scored goal to cut lead to 4-2 16:58 3rd period (loss)
- Game 5 vs Tampa - Kuznetsov scored goal to cut lead to 3-1 04:21 2nd period (loss)
- Game 5 vs Tampa - Ovechkin scored goal to cut lead to 3-2 18:24 3rd period (loss)
- Kuznetsov tying the game 4 times vs Ovechkin doing so once
- Game 4 vs Pittsburgh - Kuznetsov assisted on tying goal 12:55 2nd period (loss)
- Game 5 vs Pittsburgh - Kuznetsov assisted on tying goal 18:22 1st period (win)
- Game 5 vs Pittsburgh - Kuznetsov assisted on tying goal 00:52 3rd period (win)
- Game 4 vs Tampa - both players scored/assisted tying goal 05:18 2nd period (loss)
- Kuznetsov getting a point in a blowout (+4 goal lead) twice vs Ovechkin doing so once
- Game 2 vs Tampa - both players scored/assisted to make it 5-2 03:34 3rd period (win)
- Game 4 vs Vegas - Kuznetsov assisted to make it 6-2 18:51 3rd period (win)
Otherwise, the data indicates that the difference in production is because Kuznetsov was scoring/assisting on meaningful goals. Of the extra five points he scored, three of them were because he helped Washington tie the game, one of them was because he cut into the opponent's lead, and one of them was because of a meaningless blowout point. Drop the final point, and he still contributed to four additional meaningful goals.
Overall Kuznetsov scored more points in total, more primary points, more points in the third period, and more points in close situations (ie after that goal, it was either a tie game or a one-goal game for either team). He may have been one dimensional, but he was on the ice for the same number of goals as Ovechkin at ES (but played more minutes, and this was in front of worse goaltending). Kuznetsov had better plus/minus (a dubious stat, but people keep bringing it up). He had much less favourable zone starts. Ovechkin outscored Kuznetsov in only one of the four series (one was tied).
I don't think Ovechkin was a bad choice for the Smythe. He was pretty clearly one of the Washington's top three players. But, like with Crosby in 2016, I think it was the name and reputation that sealed the deal.