Blue Jays Discussion: Confirmed: Vladimir Guerrero Jr is still good at baseball

[dredeye]

Don't know you can blame Montoyo for the losses right now. If your gonna lay the hitting on him then he deserves credit for the pitching which is fabulous. I think the hitting coach needs to figure this out or he's out soon.

The jays need to find a way to get Dante Bichette back as the hitting coach role he had. Montoyo use of players and the lineups he puts together is a huge part of the problem. Obviously, the players and injuries aren’t helping but we got through most of the injuries with a strong record on the backs of pitching.

One element of hitting that I think ends up on Montoyo's lap is lineup creation, and in turn what batters are up with RISP. He has made such backwards lineups that I think some of our productivity can be blamed on him.

At the same time, hitters have to hit obviously.

Should have multi quoted as this is very similar to my response. But the risp stats are insane

 

[Canada4Gold]

Danny Jackson is so good

 

[canucksfan]

Danny Jackson is so good

Hopefully, he's batting higher in the lineup next game.

 

[Eyedea]

How Jansen's highest prospect ranking was #42 I'll never understand. Plus hit, above average power, solid framing and game calling. Maybe his arm is weak but he's maintained average CS% rates in the majors. He might not be as athletic but he was scorching the ball akin to Moreno and was outperforming guys ranked ahead of him (Bart, Ruiz, Mejia).

 

[Discoverer]

Given all the discussions we've had about Jansen the last couple years, I think it's hilarious that he's having this kind of start with an even worse BABIP than normal. It's currently at .200.

Since the start of 2021, 58 catchers have at least 200 PA. Jansen's 124 wRC+ is 5th (though Posey is #1, so I guess we can bump everyone up a spot... that would make Smith 1st at 130). Jansen has managed 2.1 fWAR in exactly half a season in that time (81 games) and he's actually 2nd to Zunino in WAR/PA.

I can't keep track of how many times I said Jansen is going to be a star, but it's looking like I might actually be right about something for once!

 

[Discoverer]

One element of hitting that I think ends up on Montoyo's lap is lineup creation, and in turn what batters are up with RISP. He has made such backwards lineups that I think some of our productivity can be blamed on him.

At the same time, hitters have to hit obviously.

There were some weird things going on when Teoscar and Jansen were out, but having to have two of Tapia/Zimmer/Collins in the lineup every day while most of the top guys were struggling was always going to lead to some bad-looking lineups. When the team is healthy, I think the lineup has looked great most nights.

But I'm curious how they could optimize a lineup to give the top guys more RISP opportunities. Logically, the most likely to get those kinds of chances are in the middle of the lineup - in the 4-5-6 spots or so - when the top hitters are getting on base. With the injuries they've had, that means guys like Gurriel, Kirk, and Chapman would have a ton of opportunities (and Tapia and Collins once in a while when Montoyo does something dumb/weird there). That's not a bad situation since those three are generally solid hitters... the problem is they have wRC+ of 1, 44, and 51 respectively with RISP. (Teoscar is also at 44, which hasn't helped either).

Getting more RISP chances for Springer/Bo/Vlad would mean moving them lower in the lineup, which would generally be a bad decision, though I don't hate that they're given Espinal a chance up near the top. He's one of the few who's earned that kind of opportunity this year.

 

[SDig14]

I could see them going underslot in the 1st round and then overpaying for some fallers with those other 4 picks in the top 100. I could also see them going overshot in 1st round if someone bigger falls knowing they can make it up later. All the options are still options, ha. I'd love Dylan Lesko to fall after his TJS, but even being hurt I dount he falls past 10-12 or so considering where Gunnar Hoglund still went last year. There are some potentially interesting OFs and pitchers in our range, just no catcher or IFs please unless clear BPA.

On another note, I'm in LA for the week and going to Thursday night game. Ohtani vs. Ryu it seems. Bokked the tickets months ago so hopefully the bats from yesterday show up and get to see Ohtani and a Jays win! Still trying to convince wife to go again Friday or Saturday, ha.

 

[Eyedea]

Batting order ranks in wRC+

1st - 6th
2nd - 20th
3rd - 8th
4th - 26th
5th - 22nd
6th - 15th
7th - 16th
8th - 5th
9th - 23rd

Dead last with men in scoring position. Why? Let's take a look at the PA breakdown:

1. Vladdy (46 PA) - 123 wRC+
2. Chapman (45 PA) - 51 wRC+
3. Springer (42 PA) - 109 wRC+
4. Bichette (41 PA) - 64 wRC+
5. Espinal (39 PA) - 58 wRC+
6. Kirk (33 PA) - 44 wRC+
7. Gurriel (33 PA) - 1 wRC+
8. Tapia (33 PA) - -42 wRC+
9. Hernandez (20 PA) - 44 wRC+
10. Collins (14 PA) - 179 wRC+
11. Zimmer (9 PA) - -7 wRC+
12. Jansen (7 PA) - 95 wRC+

Optimally, right now I'd structure the lineup as:

1. Springer - CF (second best hitter)
2. Vladdy - 1B (best hitter, say no more)
3. Bichette - SS (Career 143 with men on base, 127 in scoring)
4. Jansen - C (best RBI spot, for his career he's significantly better with men on base)
5. Hernandez - RF (Better with runners on base, still solid with bases empty)
6. Kirk - DH (Better with bases empty, elite discipline/bat to ball skills)
7. Chapman - 3B (Above average career numbers in all situations)
8. Gurriel - LF (Average with men in scoring, above average with men on base/bases empty)
9. Espinal - 2B (138 wRC+ bases empty, stats tank hard with men on base/in scoring)

 

[tmlfan98]

Any idea when/if Samad Taylor and Nathan Lukes will get looks on this team? I'm tired of seeing Tapia and Zimmer play when Springer/Vlad/Gurriel get DH rest days. Both can hit left (Taylor bats switch) and are playing very well in AAA so far. According to fangraphs, Lukes can play all 3 outfield positions and Taylor plays LF.

 

[Eyedea]

Any idea when/if Samad Taylor and Nathan Lukes will get looks on this team? I'm tired of seeing Tapia and Zimmer play when Springer/Vlad/Gurriel get DH rest days. Both can hit left (Taylor bats switch) and are playing very well in AAA so far. According to fangraphs, Lukes can play all 3 outfield positions and Taylor plays LF.

Taylor has cooled down significantly this month and I'd imagine Biggio gets first looks over someone like Lukes.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

The jays need to find a way to get Dante Bichette back as the hitting coach role he had. Montoyo use of players and the lineups he puts together is a huge part of the problem. Obviously, the players and injuries aren’t helping but we got through most of the injuries with a strong record on the backs of pitching.


Should have multi quoted as this is very similar to my response. But the risp stats are insane

That or hire Jesse Barfield as some kind of hitting consultant role where he can talk to the guys without breaking the rules. Snapped a few of our big guys out of slumps just picking things up on tv.

 

[Bjindaho]

Some defensive updates:

Espinal is the 2nd best 2B in baseball. Unfortunately, Schoop (not known for his defense) has arguably been playing the best D of any player in baseball regardless of position.

Chapman is the 2nd best defensive 3B so far in the AL (behind Kevin Smith).

Bo is in the bottom 5 but has been significantly better of late.

Tapia's defense has dramatically improved to the point where he's doing about as well in LF as Zimmer is in CF (for the record, Tapia isn't a significantly worse option than Gurriel right now because Gurriel is an albatross when he isn't hitting.

And then there is the captain. He's current 8th in catcher defense. This is why Heineman had no business being anywhere near our roster (it should be noted that Kirk has actually posted better numbers than McGuire so far this year). With this massive improvement, the Kirk to DH train becomes more of a Kirk or Jansen should be DHing a lot of days that they aren't catching.

Here's the catcher stats:

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Fielding | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Note: I filtered all positions to minimum 100 innings to take out noise.

 

[tmlfan98]

Some defensive updates:

Espinal is the 2nd best 2B in baseball. Unfortunately, Schoop (not known for his defense) has arguably been playing the best D of any player in baseball regardless of position.

Chapman is the 2nd best defensive 3B so far in the AL (behind Kevin Smith).

Bo is in the bottom 5 but has been significantly better of late.

Tapia's defense has dramatically improved to the point where he's doing about as well in LF as Zimmer is in CF (for the record, Tapia isn't a significantly worse option than Gurriel right now because Gurriel is an albatross when he isn't hitting.

And then there is the captain. He's current 8th in catcher defense. This is why Heineman had no business being anywhere near our roster (it should be noted that Kirk has actually posted better numbers than McGuire so far this year). With this massive improvement, the Kirk to DH train becomes more of a Kirk or Jansen should be DHing a lot of days that they aren't catching.

In theory the bolded makes sense, but with all the days that Springer/Vlad/Gurriel/sometimes Teoscar get DH rest I doubt we ever see this happen.

 

[Eyedea]

Some defensive updates:

Espinal is the 2nd best 2B in baseball. Unfortunately, Schoop (not known for his defense) has arguably been playing the best D of any player in baseball regardless of position.

Chapman is the 2nd best defensive 3B so far in the AL (behind Kevin Smith).

Bo is in the bottom 5 but has been significantly better of late.

Tapia's defense has dramatically improved to the point where he's doing about as well in LF as Zimmer is in CF (for the record, Tapia isn't a significantly worse option than Gurriel right now because Gurriel is an albatross when he isn't hitting.

And then there is the captain. He's current 8th in catcher defense. This is why Heineman had no business being anywhere near our roster (it should be noted that Kirk has actually posted better numbers than McGuire so far this year). With this massive improvement, the Kirk to DH train becomes more of a Kirk or Jansen should be DHing a lot of days that they aren't catching.

Here's the catcher stats:

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Fielding | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Note: I filtered all positions to minimum 100 innings to take out noise.

Which is odd because he leads 2Bs in OAA and DRS since he debuted in 2013. He might not be the greatest on any single year (probably should've won in 2016) but he's consistently above average with a sprinkle of elite seasons earlier on during his Orioles days.

 

[theaub]

The Jays 4-5-6 this year has been...suboptimal.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[kb]

The Jays 4-5-6 this year has been...suboptimal.

Positively Dodger-like!

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

The Jays 4-5-6 this year has been...suboptimal.

Detroit's 1-6

And my goodness. Ward and Trout are destroying everything. I'm hoping we can avoid Ward at least in this series (currently injured)

 

[BertCorbeau]

Read that the Jays are third in the number of hard hit balls in the majors but rank 25th in OPS on those hard hit balls.

Something’s gotta give sooner or later.

 

[Discoverer]

Detroit's 1-6

And my goodness. Ward and Trout are destroying everything. I'm hoping we can avoid Ward at least in this series (currently injured)

Ward is so weird. Absolutely awful at 24-25, acceptable 4th-OF type at 26, solid regular at 27, best player on a team with Trout and Ohtani so far at 28. Crazy.

If nothing else, he's a good example of why the Jays (and most teams, really) aren't nearly as quick as some fans would like to give up on the Derek Fishers and Billy McKinneys and Socrates Britos or the world.

 

[Eyedea]

Read that the Jays are third in the number of hard hit balls in the majors but rank 25th in OPS on those hard hit balls.

Something’s gotta give sooner or later.

Yes, they're in the top 3 for EV and hard hit % but their barreled balls (minimum .500 xBA) are ranked 12th. Still, both them and the White Sox have been two of the more unlucky ball clubs offensively.

Three notable cases:

Vladdy: xStats - .306/.396/.556 / Actual stats: .263/.356/.447
Chapman: xStats - .254/.343/.513 / Actual stats: .192/.283/.356
Bichette: xStats - .289/.323/.478 / Actual stats: .240/.277/.391

On the bright side, Bo has been playing up to that level this month. Vladdy hasn't due to the lack of loft (needs to figure out how to lift balls in lower third of zone), while Chapman is striking out less, walking more, and hitting hard flyballs, but just hasn't been hitting that sweet spot.

 

[Morgs]

Ward is so weird. Absolutely awful at 24-25, acceptable 4th-OF type at 26, solid regular at 27, best player on a team with Trout and Ohtani so far at 28. Crazy.

If nothing else, he's a good example of why the Jays (and most teams, really) aren't nearly as quick as some fans would like to give up on the Derek Fishers and Billy McKinneys and Socrates Britos or the world.

Reminds me of this catcher you and I hyped for years.

Yes, they're in the top 3 for EV and hard hit % but their barreled balls (minimum .500 xBA) are ranked 12th. Still, both them and the White Sox have been two of the more unlucky ball clubs offensively.

Three notable cases:

Vladdy: xStats - .306/.396/.556 / Actual stats: .263/.356/.447
Chapman: xStats - .254/.343/.513 / Actual stats: .192/.283/.356
Bichette: xStats - .289/.323/.478 / Actual stats: .240/.277/.391

On the bright side, Bo has been playing up to that level this month. Vladdy hasn't due to the lack of loft (needs to figure out how to lift balls in lower third of zone), while Chapman is striking out less, walking more, and hitting hard flyballs, but just hasn't been hitting that sweet spot.

Great post. I feel like i can count on two hands the number of times I've thought Chapman had a HR that ended up as an easy fly out. I think the ball is effecting the perception of him more than any other player on this team and its not close.

 

[Discoverer]

Yes, they're in the top 3 for EV and hard hit % but their barreled balls (minimum .500 xBA) are ranked 12th. Still, both them and the White Sox have been two of the more unlucky ball clubs offensively.

Three notable cases:

Vladdy: xStats - .306/.396/.556 / Actual stats: .263/.356/.447
Chapman: xStats - .254/.343/.513 / Actual stats: .192/.283/.356
Bichette: xStats - .289/.323/.478 / Actual stats: .240/.277/.391

On the bright side, Bo has been playing up to that level this month. Vladdy hasn't due to the lack of loft (needs to figure out how to lift balls in lower third of zone), while Chapman is striking out less, walking more, and hitting hard flyballs, but just hasn't been hitting that sweet spot.

Chapman in particular feels like he's on the verge of breaking out.

In May, he has a 13.9% walk rate, 21.5% K rate, and he's one of just 4 players with a 60%+ Hard Hit rate. Lots of walks, limited Ks, and smashing the ball is about the best thing you can ask for from a player. And yet he has a 66 wRC+ for the month.

 

[Eyedea]

Ward is so weird. Absolutely awful at 24-25, acceptable 4th-OF type at 26, solid regular at 27, best player on a team with Trout and Ohtani so far at 28. Crazy.

If nothing else, he's a good example of why the Jays (and most teams, really) aren't nearly as quick as some fans would like to give up on the Derek Fishers and Billy McKinneys and Socrates Britos or the world.

I remember there was a point in time that Houston just had so much talent in their system they were essentially giving it for free. Most burned out but it's fun looking back at the deals being made (or just straight up cutting guys like JD Martinez).

 

[lebdafor norris]

Detroit's 1-6

And my goodness. Ward and Trout are destroying everything. I'm hoping we can avoid Ward at least in this series (currently injured)

Ward on track to win the Chris Collabello BABIP hitter award