Comparing Ben Scrivens to Ryan Miller

[alissa]

Ryan Miller First Full NHL Season was after a lockout, at age 25
30-14-3, 2.60, 0.914%
Ben Scrivens First Full NHL Season after a lockout, at age 26
???

R Miller
6'2", 175lb - Tall, lanky, aggressive on shooters
B Scrivens
6'2", 190lb - Tall, lanky, aggressive on shooters

Ryan Miller
AHL Career: 92-61-16, 2.34, 0.922%, 15 SO (9% of total GP)
Ben Scrivens
AHL Career: 49-34-7, 2.19, 0.922%, 8 SO (9% of total GP)

Ryan Miller as an NHL Rookie at 22/23 years old
6-11-1, 3.02, 0.886%
Ben Scrivens as an NHL Rookie at 25 years old
4-5-2, 3.13, 0.903%

Ryan Miller in the CCHA
Career Michigan State: 73-19-12, 1.54, 0.941%, 26 SO
Ben Scrivens in the ECAC
Career Cornell: 65-37-13, 1.93, 0.930%, 19 SO

Ryan Miller Career AHL Playoffs (24 and 25 year old)
13-13, 2.37, 0.916%, 2SO
Ben Scrivens Career AHL Playoffs (25 year old)
11-6, 1.92, 0.935%, 3SO

Click to read more...

 

[613Leafer]

I don't know what team Miller played for back when he was in the AHL. But Scrivens has played for the Marlies, a Calder Cup contender / probably the best defensive team in the entire league. It definitely pads the stats. + he's quite a few years older than Miller was when Miller was in the A.

There's zero reason based on stats to expect Scrivens to become a Miller calibre goaltender.

 

[alissa]

I bring this up because:
-Both went college to AHL to NHL
-Both come to the NHL full-time after a lockout season
-Both come to the NHL full-time in their mid 20's
-Both are tall, lanky goalies
-Miller was drafted 5th round, Scrivens was signed (low expectations)
-They have posted eerily similar numbers along a very similar path

Ryan Miller came into Buffalo after the 2004-05 lockout as a 25 year old and stole the starting job from Martin Biron.

The Sabres went 52-24-6 finishing with 110 points as a team that year. The year before the lockout Buffalo finished last in the division with 85 points.

They were also very young led by balanced scoring from Afinogenov (26), Drury (29), Kotalik (27), Briere (28), Connolly (24), Vanek (22) and Roy (22).

 

[TOGuy14]

Personally having watched both I feel that Rynnas is the better goalie than Scrivens, but that could just be me.

 

[613Leafer]

Yea, there's just a lot of context when it comes to judging goalies at lower levels. Stats can be very team dependent.

And then certain flaws in their game can be acceptable at lower levels, but essentially fatal at the NHL level and lead to no continuity of good numbers. With skaters for example, skating/size are two big things that can hold people back, even if they put up great numbers at lower levels.

With goalies I'm not quite as sure what they'd be, but I'm guessing inability to read plays, bad glove hand, so-so lateral movement, size, etc.

 

[alissa]

I don't know what team Miller played for back when he was in the AHL. But Scrivens has played for the Marlies, a Calder Cup contender / probably the best defensive team in the entire league. It definitely pads the stats. + he's quite a few years older than Miller was when Miller was in the A.

There's zero reason based on stats to expect Scrivens to become a Miller calibre goaltender.

It was Rochester.

And if you watched the Marlies at all, you would know that Ben Scrivens is the biggest reason why the Marlies were contending for the Calder.

And if by 'quite a few years older' you mean one year older then you're correct. Ryan Miller's last season in the AHL was 2004-05, at age 24. He's born in July while Scrivens is born in September.

 

[alissa]

Yea, there's just a lot of context when it comes to judging goalies at lower levels. Stats can be very team dependent.

And then certain flaws in their game can be acceptable at lower levels, but essentially fatal at the NHL level and lead to no continuity of good numbers. With skaters for example, skating/size are two big things that can hold people back, even if they put up great numbers at lower levels.

With goalies I'm not quite as sure what they'd be, but I'm guessing inability to read plays, bad glove hand, so-so lateral movement, size, etc.

For sure. We have yet to see what Ben can do at the NHL level. But if he's going to ever establish himself, this is going to be the year.

 

[zeke]

no question scrivens has some real upside, but plenty of question marks on him, especially that weird glove hand of his.

 

[613Leafer]

It was Rochester.

And if you watched the Marlies at all, you would know that Ben Scrivens is the biggest reason why the Marlies were contending for the Calder.

And if by 'quite a few years older' you mean one year older then you're correct. Ryan Miller's last season in the AHL was 2004-05, at age 24. He's born in July while Scrivens is born in September.

Um. We're comparing AHL career stats. Not comparing Millers oldest age to Scrivens youngest... thanks for trying to skew/bias things

Miller essentially played in the AHL between ages ~21-24, and arguably the last year was because of the lockout, he had played in the NHL the previous year. Scrivens ~24-26. .... that's not a 1 year difference... comparing the averages it's a 2.5 year difference. aka "quite a few years older". And 2.5 years when you're talking about prospects, is a big difference.

 

[DogsFan*]

Miller was a stand out goalie in the AHL, always was. I don't feel the same way about Scrivens, but it could happen.

 

[alissa]

Um. We're comparing AHL career stats. Not comparing Millers oldest age to Scrivens youngest... thanks for trying to skew/bias things

Miller essentially played in the AHL between ages ~21-24, and arguably the last year was because of the lockout, he had played in the NHL the previous year. Scrivens ~24-26. .... that's not a 1 year difference... comparing the averages it's a 2.5 year difference. aka "quite a few years older". And 2.5 years when you're talking about prospects, is a big difference.

Scrivens in AHL at age 25.08 to 25.58:
22-15-1, 2.04, 0.926%, 4 SO (10% of GP)

Miller in AHL at age 24.25 to 24.75:
41-17-4, 2.45, 0.922%, 8 SO (13% of GP)

And don't tell me Ryan Miller only played in the AHL that year because of the lockout. He played 3 NHL games the season before that, and his GAA was 5.06 and his save percentage was 0.795%. Biron was their undisputed starter and there's nothing to say Ryan Miller would have been in the NHL otherwise.

MOD

 

[Frankie]

so what's the point of this? ben scrivens will be as good as ryan miller? the leafs should make plans going forward based on the notion that scrivens will be as good as miller?

or, we simply should just be hoping that scrivens will be as good as miller?

 

[alissa]

there's no question about that.

so what's the point of this? ben scrivens will be as good as ryan miller? the leafs should make plans going forward based on the notion that scrivens will be as good as miller?

or, we simply should just be hoping that scrivens will be as good as miller?

I think we are so focused on Luongo, and Reimer. But looking at the way Ryan Miller came into the league, we should absolutely be hoping that Scrivens continues to follow Ryan's path.

After seeing Ben play in the AHL a lot the last two years, I am more excited about Scrivens getting his chance than I am about Reimer or about Luongo possibly coming.

 

[SteveV*]

I can't wait for "Comparing Ben Scrivens to Patrick Roy"!

 

[zeke]

the thing is that Miller is an overrated goalie, with only one elite year under his belt, which looks more and more like a fluke career year.

 

[stanleyorbust]

I get the point... Miller's climb to the top (top 5 to 10) was not forecast by anyone, so we shouldn't write off Scrivens or Reimer yet. Yes both could turn out to be very good goaltenders... this position is exceptionally hard to predict.

I agree staying away from Loungo is needed, but we need a contingency plan for if one or both of our current goaltenders fail miserably. I would say there is 100% chance that one of these two wont be in the NHL 5 years from now..

 

[613Leafer]

the thing is that Miller is an overrated goalie, with only one elite year under his belt, which looks more and more like a fluke career year.

He doesn't play for the best team. He's Buffalos best player and has been for a while. He was absolutely dominant in the Olympics. It's like Cam Ward, his stats aren't the best either, but he plays for a pretty sub-par team (historically, Carolina obviously looks better this year).

 

[KingBuzzo]

Scrivens may be a good goalie, but I just don't ever see him being an elite one.

 

[Auston Marlander]

I don't know what team Miller played for back when he was in the AHL. But Scrivens has played for the Marlies, a Calder Cup contender / probably the best defensive team in the entire league. It definitely pads the stats. + he's quite a few years older than Miller was when Miller was in the A.

There's zero reason based on stats to expect Scrivens to become a Miller calibre goaltender.

Not saying Scrivens will be great, but no one expect Miller to be a star back then either. Just like the rest of the ever growing list of goalies to come out of nowhere.

 

[Schenn]

MOD

All the OP is saying is that Ben Scrivens has comparable numbers to Ryan Miller at a comparable ago. That's it. I mean what are the chances Scrivens turns out like Miller? Likely not the best, but there is that possibility based on stats and play time.

No need to rip on the topic, because it is actually a viable topic to discuss.

 

[Pi]

Why are people being snide?

I don't see the OP saying "Ben Scrivens is the next Ryan Miller," it's a very good comparison of their goaltending numbers.

As Leaf fans..I think we've become a little too negative.

 

[Hockeylaw]

I think Scrivens has the potential to grow. Some goalies bloom a bit later in their career (as the comparison with Miller suggests). Don't like his glove hand though.

 

[Jerkini]

the thing is that Miller is an overrated goalie, with only one elite year under his belt, which looks more and more like a fluke career year.

I don't know if I can agree with that. He may be overrated in the sense he's not the best goalie, but he's definitely in the upper echelon of goaltenders in the NHL.

 

[ULF_55]

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Juli...ake-An-Impact-This-Year/99/48513#.UPbhfG9qbw0

Ben Scrivens, Goalie, Toronto:
This is his third professional season, but with only 12 NHL games played, he's still a rookie according to the NHL. Some argue that his numbers could be better, but others would argue that the same could be said about the play in front of him. Unless a trade is made, he and James Riemer should be in a heated battle for Toronto's starting spot and if I know anything about Scrivens, I know he's as competitive as they come so don't let the calm demeanor fool you. In fact it's his cool and collected attitude and sound positioning that give him the confidence needed to succeed in this position.

Ben Scrivens
Born Sep 11 1986

To be eligible for the award, a player cannot have played any more than 25 games previously in any single season, nor have played in more than six games in two separate preceding seasons in any major professional league.

Hmm, anyone know if Scrivens is eligible for the Calder?

 

[zeke]

I don't know if I can agree with that. He may be overrated in the sense he's not the best goalie, but he's definitely in the upper echelon of goaltenders in the NHL.

I think that belief is why the Sabres are overrated every year. Miller is a solid average to slightly above average starting goalie.

1. T.Thomas (38): 2yrs -116gms, .930 (career - 378gms, .921)
2. P.Rinne (30): 2yrs - 137gms, .926 (career - 250gms, .921)
3. H.Lundqvist (30): 2yrs - 130gms, .926 (career - 468gms, .920)
4. R.Luongo (33): 2yrs - 115gms, .924 (career - 727gms, .919)
5. J.Quick (27): 2yrs - 130gms, .924 (career - 249gms, .916)
6. M.Smith (30): 2yrs - 89gms, .924 (career - 229gms, .914)
7. C.Price (25): 2yrs, 137gms, .920 (career - 271gms, .916)
8. T.Vokoun (36): 2yrs - 105gms, .920 (career - 680gms, .917)
9. C.Ward (28): 2yrs - 142gms, .919 (career - 414gms, .910)
10. K.Lehtonen (29): 2yrs - 128gms, .918 (career - 344gms, .914)
11. S.Varlamov (24): 2yrs - 80gms, .918 (career - 112gms, .915)
12. A.Niemi (29): 2yrs - 128gms, .917 (career - 170gms, .915)
13. J.Halak (27): 2yrs - 103gms, .917 (career - 204gms, .918)
14. N.Backstrom (34): 2yrs - 97gms, .917 (career - 327gms, .918)
15. J.Theodore (36): 2yrs - 85gms, .917 (career - 633gms, .909)
16. J.Hiller (30): 2yrs - 122gms, .916 (career - 250gms, .918)
17. R.Miller (32): 2yrs - 127gms, .916 (career - 460gms, .915)
18. I.Bryzgalov (32): 2yrs - 127gms, .916 (career - 385gms, .915)
19. M.Fleury (28): 2yrs - 132gms, .916 (career - 434gms, .909)
20. D.Dubnyk (26): 2yrs - 82gms, .915 (career - 101gms, .910)
21. J.Howard (28): 2yrs - 120gms, .914 (career - 192gms, .917)
22. M.Kiprusoff (36): 2yrs - 141gms, .914 (career - 599gms, .914)
23. C.Anderson (31): 2yrs - 114gms, .914 (career - 294gms, .913)
24. E.Nabokov (37): 2yrs - 42gms, .914 (career - 605gms, .912)
25. J.Reimer (24): 2yrs - 71gms, .911 (career - 71gms, .911)
26. C.Crawford (28): 2yrs - 114gms, .910 (career - 122gms, .910)
27. O.Pavelec (25): 2yrs - 126gms, .910 (career - 187gms, .907)
28. S.Bobrovsky (24): 2yrs - 83gms, .909 (career - 83gms, .909)
29. M.Brodeur (40): 2yrs - 115gms, .906 (career - 1191gms, .913)
30. M.Garon (35): 2yrs - 84gms, .901 (career - 323gms, .904)

and then you have backups who could be good starters in Rask, Schneider, Lindback, Holtby, Neuvirth, etc.


Of course you take Ryan Miller ahead of less proven guys or older guys with smaller sample sizes listed ahead of him in that list, but even then, he's more of a "solid average" guy than an "elite" one.