I got this from the user u/hockeyyy for the r/leafs sub on reddit.
This is a list based on all of his contemporaries dating back to 2007-08.
The following players have been added:
It focuses on three things
Why is this important to know? By comparing Matthews against his contemporaries, we can see what kind of player he is going to be. Moreover, we will be able to determine what kind of finish he will likely have. Bear in mind though, I don't anticipate we are going to find a worthwhile comparison -- the way Matthews has adjusted to the league and at the rate he is shooting is something only seen once in a decade.
Notes:
So what does this all tell us?
This is a list based on all of his contemporaries dating back to 2007-08.
The following players have been added:
- Toews/Mueller (2007-08)
- Stamkos (2008-09)
- Tavares/Duchene (2009-10)
- RNH/Couturier (2011-12)
- Galchenyuk/Huberdeau (2012-13)
- MacKinnon/Lindholm (2013-14)
- McDavid/Eichel/Larkin/Bennett (2015-16)
It focuses on three things
- They must be 18-19
- Must be playing their rookie season
- Predominantly playing centre
Why is this important to know? By comparing Matthews against his contemporaries, we can see what kind of player he is going to be. Moreover, we will be able to determine what kind of finish he will likely have. Bear in mind though, I don't anticipate we are going to find a worthwhile comparison -- the way Matthews has adjusted to the league and at the rate he is shooting is something only seen once in a decade.
Notes:
- Approximately 44% of RNH's points in his rookie season came on the power-play. This should be taken into context for what it is -- it was a bit of a fluky season for him. He's a great player, but not the one as indicated by his rookie season. A lot of what he did was unsustainable.
- Similar to RNH, Tavares had a disproportionately large chunk of his points throughout his rookie season built off the power-play. Approximately 40% of his points came with the man-advantage. Sidenote: I find his career progression to be disappointing for what he was supposed to be.
- Stamkos was poorly treated in his rookie season and it wasn't until Melrose was fired that he suddenly turned on the jets -- a supremely talented player suppressed by a supremely moronic coach. He should have had at least twice the points he had in his first 31 games. He was stuck in a very difficult situation.
So what does this all tell us?
- Matthews is on a level only reached by McDavid.
- Matthews' 13.1 scoring chances for per 60 at evens is more than just ridiculous, it's unprecedented. Of all rookies recorded since 2007 -- none have reached his current level of chances generated after 31 games. None.
- Matthews' shots for per 60 is also exceptional. Playing on a line with Hyman and Brown / Nylander, we shouldn't have expected very much, but this is clearly not the case. McDavid had the luxury of playing with two veterans in Eberle and Pouliot. This shouldn't take anything away from him -- he's still the next one.
- Why aren't the points on the same level of McDavid / Malkin? The point is that they will be. With the extreme rate of shots that Matthews generating on his line, in addition to the fact that scoring chances generated have produced a strong correlated with expected goals for, the points aren't just going to come, but come in very variable clusters -- as soon.
- I feel that Matthews doesn't have a strong similarity with any of these players. He's a very new breed of player. Or is he? Based on Matthews' performance using his number of shots, shots per game, and points, his historical contemporaries are since 1918 pretty uh... elite. Perhaps we're underselling what Matthews is capable of doing.
