Cole Perfetti RFA contract

[KingBogo]

My guess is it's extremely close to being finalized. They wouldn't be sending him next week if it wasn't. He also wouldn't agree to go.

The way the Chevy likes to keep things tight to the vest I wouldn't be surprised if something was already in place and it was now just a matter of the official signing and timing of the announcement.

 

[KingBogo]

I agree with what you’re saying re: difficulty in evaluating. That’s the risk-reward component with going long term vs bridge in these situations. Personally, I think a careful evaluation of his progression from 2022-23 to 2023-24 and the factors that played out last year (the point of this post isn’t to start a big coaching debate, but rather just to point to the facts): games played, games in the box, minutes played per game and usage not always in a top-6 role, and amount of PP minutes… combined with his current age and age at the time… I think the benefits outweigh the risks and Cole will be a great top 6 player with lots of upside

For me it is how do you maximize the next 4-5 years for the organization. Getting long term stability with Perfetti at a fair price allows Chevy to layer in other contracts as they come up, rather than have a big unknown 2 years from now.

 

[Jet]

Perfetti isn't eligible for arbitration coming off his ELC.

Arbitration wasn't an option as Perfetti doesn't have arbitration rights yet.

Well, shows you what I know!

I guess I'm nervous now haha

 

[KingBogo]

Well, shows you what I know!

I guess I'm nervous now haha

I'm not. The kid is in town with his team mates for informal skates. He spent time training with the team's leadership over the summer and it has leaked he is interested in a long term deal. Arniel has also been in close contact with him over the summer. More and more I'm leaning towards there being a long term deal in place soon.

 

[Jet]

I'm not. The kid is in town with his team mates for informal skates. He spent time training with the team's leadership over the summer and it has leaked he is interested in a long term deal. Arniel has also been in close contact with him over the summer. More and more I'm leaning towards there being a long term deal in place soon.

And now I'm not nervous anymore. WHAT A ROLLERCOASER RIDE!

Oh, just as a completely unrelated aside - I played hockey at TGH Iceplex in Tampa yesterday, and guess who was on the ice right before me? Mark Scheifele.

I didn't see him myself (unfortunately) but one of my buddies saw me wearing his jersey in the skate and asked me if I knew him lol.

 

[BoneDocUK]

And now I'm not nervous anymore. WHAT A ROLLERCOASER RIDE!

Oh, just as a completely unrelated aside - I played hockey at TGH Iceplex in Tampa yesterday, and guess who was on the ice right before me? Mark Scheifele.

I didn't see him myself (unfortunately) but one of my buddies saw me wearing his jersey in the skate and asked me if I knew him lol.

Well now I'm nervous.

OMG Sheifs to the Bolts argh???!!!

Perfetti is in the club. I think the Jets have him firmly in their leadership group and longterm plans and, like @KingBogo, I wonder if the deal is basically done and waiting on the announcement now. Would be a nice fillip for TC week.

 

[surixon]

The way the Chevy likes to keep things tight to the vest I wouldn't be surprised if something was already in place and it was now just a matter of the official signing and timing of the announcement.

I wouldn't be surprised either. I'm sure Chevy leaked something to Dregar to get him to write that piece in order to key everyone in on what's coming.

I'd guess we see something early next week. They will likely wait until after the funeral out of respect.

 

[TS Quint]

I'm not. The kid is in town with his team mates for informal skates. He spent time training with the team's leadership over the summer and it has leaked he is interested in a long term deal. Arniel has also been in close contact with him over the summer. More and more I'm leaning towards there being a long term deal in place soon.

I would think a two year deal would be pretty simple and done fast. I agree the fact it's taken long has me thinking (maybe I'm just hoping) it's a long term deal. And as someone said Dreger is talking about Perfetti and Dreger is Chipman's leak. The deal is probably done and they are just being showmen for the timing of the announcement.

 

[Weezeric]

I would think a two year deal would be pretty simple and done fast. I agree the fact it's taken long has me thinking (maybe I'm just hoping) it's a long term deal. And as someone said Dreger is talking about Perfetti and Dreger is Chipman's leak. The deal is probably done and they are just being showmen for the timing of the announcement.

I don’t think Perfetti is representing the Jets at the media day if he is only in on a 2 year bridge. I think it’s long term. 6-7 years

 

[KingBogo]

I don’t think Perfetti is representing the Jets at the media day if he is only in on a 2 year bridge. I think it’s long term. 6-7 years

That's how I see it as well. I think this is a typical timed Chevy announcement to get a feel good PR bounce. Of course we all could be wrong, but it is something upbeat to discuss and hope for.

 

[surixon]

That's how I see it as well. I think this is a typical timed Chevy announcement to get a feel good PR bounce. Of course we all could be wrong, but it is something upbeat to discuss and hope for.

Agreed. As I said in the middle of summer that they would time it for close to the start of camp.

Announcing it early next week gets some excitement going that will be further built on with the prospect tourney happening right after. That would then lead us right into camp.

 

[KingBogo]

Agreed. As I said in the middle of summer that they would time it for close to the start of camp.

Announcing it early next week gets some excitement going that will be further built on with the prospect tourney happening right after. That would then lead us right into camp.

Yeah, after a bad playoffs and then a relatively quiet summer I think we see a lead up to the season trying to promote as much excitement as possible.

 

[Jets 31]

Honestly i'm not worried at all, Perfetti will sign a 7 year deal.

 

[jetsfan15]

For me it is how do you maximize the next 4-5 years for the organization. Getting long term stability with Perfetti at a fair price allows Chevy to layer in other contracts as they come up, rather than have a big unknown 2 years from now.

Yes. And I think with “potential” star players like perfetti, who isn’t currently the 60, 70, 80 point forward, the timing doesn’t always line up the way it currently is, such that there is that “do you take that calculated chance/risk”. The timing was there with Scheifele. He hadn’t yet been the 70-85pts player when the discussions were taking place. I just feel like the uncertainty is there to have a price that is less than what Cole will be worth - and when I say “will be worth”, I don’t mean in 5 years, but in perhaps just one or two years. Interesting times. because if Chevy gets this right, it creates that interesting cap space in a year or two to really build a genuine contender window

 

[voyageur]

And now I'm not nervous anymore. WHAT A ROLLERCOASER RIDE!

Oh, just as a completely unrelated aside - I played hockey at TGH Iceplex in Tampa yesterday, and guess who was on the ice right before me? Mark Scheifele.

I didn't see him myself (unfortunately) but one of my buddies saw me wearing his jersey in the skate and asked me if I knew him lol.

You helped coach one of his summer hockey camps if I am not mistaken. Those were great, every kid left the rink with a big smile.

 

[voyageur]

Yes. And I think with “potential” star players like perfetti, who isn’t currently the 60, 70, 80 point forward, the timing doesn’t always line up the way it currently is, such that there is that “do you take that calculated chance/risk”. The timing was there with Scheifele. He hadn’t yet been the 70-85pts player when the discussions were taking place. I just feel like the uncertainty is there to have a price that is less than what Cole will be worth - and when I say “will be worth”, I don’t mean in 5 years, but in perhaps just one or two years. Interesting times. because if Chevy gets this right, it creates that interesting cap space in a year or two to really build a genuine contender window

If there is a significant change in one or two years then a bridge makes sense for both sides to reevaluate worth. You'd hope that Chevy has a long term plan with him, but it wouldn't surprise me if the number he bargains with is lower, based on a mediocre season, without a top impact that players before him had at the end of their ELCs.

Chevy has to be mindful of what the future contracts of Vilardi and Samberg look like in a longer term scenario, Vilardi's ceiling as a top PP contributor might be high. Then you have to sign or replace Pionk with more than a prospect who likely has to develop into a 3rd pairing NHL d-man before climbing the ranks. And Ehlers if he gets re-signed. The number for the 4, including Perfetti, is probably the mid 20 millions. Pionk or a Pionk replacement is another $5-$6 million, unless you go prospective in a trade. So there's going to be some movement to stay within the Cap, with core players.

 

[DRW204]

Yes. And I think with “potential” star players like perfetti, who isn’t currently the 60, 70, 80 point forward, the timing doesn’t always line up the way it currently is, such that there is that “do you take that calculated chance/risk”. The timing was there with Scheifele. He hadn’t yet been the 70-85pts player when the discussions were taking place. I just feel like the uncertainty is there to have a price that is less than what Cole will be worth - and when I say “will be worth”, I don’t mean in 5 years, but in perhaps just one or two years. Interesting times. because if Chevy gets this right, it creates that interesting cap space in a year or two to really build a genuine contender window

scheifele was far closer to that bench-mark than perfetti. the year prior scheifele signed his 1st long-term deal, he finished 35th in the league in scoring at 61pts & one of the top Fwds in the NHL in pts/60 (5v5). that's not far off the low value of your range (70 pts). for comparison sake - 35th in scoring this past year was 76 pts.

if a bridge deal is in the 3.5-4m range for perfetti, and a long-term deal by some of the contract-projections are in the 5-5.5m range, for ~1.5m more id rather lock him up for longer-term rather than see the price increase quite a bit 2 years from now as he's closer to UFA, and hopefully much improved as a player. this isn't a late 20s UFA guy so i think there's higher chance of him meeting or surpassing that contract value rather than under-performing.

 

[surixon]

If there is a significant change in one or two years then a bridge makes sense for both sides to reevaluate worth. You'd hope that Chevy has a long term plan with him, but it wouldn't surprise me if the number he bargains with is lower, based on a mediocre season, without a top impact that players before him had at the end of their ELCs.

Chevy has to be mindful of what the future contracts of Vilardi and Samberg look like in a longer term scenario, Vilardi's ceiling as a top PP contributor might be high. Then you have to sign or replace Pionk with more than a prospect who likely has to develop into a 3rd pairing NHL d-man before climbing the ranks. And Ehlers if he gets re-signed. The number for the 4, including Perfetti, is probably the mid 20 millions. Pionk or a Pionk replacement is another $5-$6 million, unless you go prospective in a trade. So there's going to be some movement to stay within the Cap, with core players.

The Jets will have well over 20 million coming off the cap next summer. A long term deal to Cole won't impact what he's able to do all that much. He has more then enough to keep the key players he'll want to keep.

Moreover we really have no idea if Vilardi is willing to reup for the long haul at this point.

 

[KingBogo]

The Jets will have well over 20 million coming off the cap next summer. A long term deal to Cole won't impact what he's able to do all that much. He has more then enough to keep the key players he'll want to keep.

Moreover we really have no idea if Vilardi is willing to reup for the long haul at this point.

I think the Jets need to treat Perfetti as a long term part of their core. If you can sign him long term for a fair contract you do it just as they have done with most of their core players over the years. Gives them cost certainty going forward with a player who should be in the top 6 for many years.

 

[surixon]

I think the Jets need to treat Perfetti as a long term part of their core. If you can sign him long term for a fair contract you do it just as they have done with most of their core players over the years. Gives them cost certainty going forward with a player who should be in the top 6 for many years.

Yup, it also gives them a potential long term value contract that can offset some of the legacy contracts they have signed. As they age out and are worth less of their deals, Cole should get better and outperform his.

 

[LowLefty]

scheifele was far closer to that bench-mark than perfetti. the year prior scheifele signed his 1st long-term deal, he finished 35th in the league in scoring at 61pts & one of the top Fwds in the NHL in pts/60 (5v5). that's not far off the low value of your range (70 pts). for comparison sake - 35th in scoring this past year was 76 pts.

if a bridge deal is in the 3.5-4m range for perfetti, and a long-term deal by some of the contract-projections are in the 5-5.5m range, for ~1.5m more id rather lock him up for longer-term rather than see the price increase quite a bit 2 years from now as he's closer to UFA, and hopefully much improved as a player. this isn't a late 20s UFA guy so i think there's higher chance of him meeting or surpassing that contract value rather than under-performing.

If long term is 5/5.5M, I can see that making some sense and might offset some of the risk.
I'd still rather see a bridge - I'm not as confident in his potential as some (or maybe even most) - I wish we had one more year before this contract was due.
But we don't and thus the higher risk in my view.

 

[10Ducky10]

38m over 6 years.

 

[DRW204]

If long term is 5/5.5M, I can see that making some sense and might offset some of the risk.
I'd still rather see a bridge - I'm not as confident in his potential as some (or maybe even most) - I wish we had one more year before this contract was due.
But we don't and thus the higher risk in my view.

A 5-5.5m fwd is what around 45-55 pts around the league on average? Idk I see him in that range next year, and a good chance of higher.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I think the Jets need to treat Perfetti as a long term part of their core. If you can sign him long term for a fair contract you do it just as they have done with most of their core players over the years. Gives them cost certainty going forward with a player who should be in the top 6 for many years.

We can’t afford to have people we draft leaving at their first opportunity.
Hopefully Cole and the organization can find a mutual solution long term.

 

[voyageur]

The Jets will have well over 20 million coming off the cap next summer. A long term deal to Cole won't impact what he's able to do all that much. He has more then enough to keep the key players he'll want to keep.

Moreover we really have no idea if Vilardi is willing to reup for the long haul at this point.

Fair enough, but locking up a PP producer who takes some of the physical offensive burden from Scheifele seems like a priority. . Or you have to trade for a similar role again to what Dubois's was on the PP. I'd think that renegotiation number starts with a 6 annually. Re-signing Samberg has to be a priority And that number to me has to be higher than Vlasic's contract in Chicago or Samuelsson's in Buffalo. If the Jets want to re-sign Ehlers that number is probably around $7 million AAV. That's probably $18 million used up without Perfetti signed or a proven capable top 4 d-man. Perfetti long term has to be in the 5s . Pionk is not likely replaced by Salomonsson in a year realistically. Especially in a top 4 shutdown role. I think you'd want him to beat out Miller for a job to maintain depth. So shop around for a top 4 d...prices do vary. Replacing existing role players through free agency agency hasn't panned out, so you need someone on the farm who can step up. None of the guys in the ranks of our top prospects have any significant experience killing penalties so that's work to be done in one year. The chances of re-signing Lowry goes up with capable linemates, so you have to be careful not to invest strictly top heavy.

I still think the bridge is best for both sides at this point. Gives GM room to manouver, by the end of the bridge KC might be gone, so there's an opportunity to put more money into a top player, that Perfetti hasn't arrived at yet. For Perfetti it's a chance to prove he is more valuable than past results.