Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[DRW204]

Scheif has 10 points in his last10 games.
We should hope that most of the rest of the team should go on such a slump...

Scheifele has become a weird reference point and a smidge of condescending hate from Perfetti stans over the past little while. At this stage of his career Scheifele was a ~top 30 nhl scorer, and bonafide 1C for us as one of the most important players on the team.

 

[ps241]

Not really directly Perfetti or Ehlers related, but I have a bit of bad news about the powerplay...it's gone from running hot to running cold.

	Pre 4Nations / 56 games	Post 4Nations / 16 games
PP%	33.3%, 1st	16.7%, 24th, -16.6
CF/60	99.49, 22nd	99.67, 19th, +0.18
FF/60	77.47, 12th	78.55, 13th, +1.08
GF/60	13.21, 1st	5.91, 24th, -7.30
xGF/60	8.73, 11th	8.24, 15th, -0.49
SCF/60	54.93, 17th	54.90, 17th, -0.03
HDCF/60	27.98, 8th	21.12, 17th, -6.86

Regression is here. The Jets have gone from outshooting xG by 4.48 to undershooting xG by 2.33 - a 6.81 swing. Most metrics line up pretty closely except for HDCF/60 which is down 25% (but actual goals are down 55% and xGF/60 isn't down that much).

Be interesting to see their PP team shooting % pre and post 4Nations.

 

[Gm0ney]

Be interesting to see their PP team shooting % pre and post 4Nations.

	Pre 4Nations / 56 games	Post 4Nations / 16 games	Total / 72 games
Jets PP SH%	23.83% (1st)	11.86% (22nd)	21.25% (2nd)

Chicago's now ranked 1st with 21.29%.

The league average is 15.21%.

 

[ps241]

	Pre 4Nations / 56 games	Post 4Nations / 16 games	Total / 72 games
Jets PP SH%	23.83% (1st)	11.86% (22nd)	21.25% (2nd)

Chicago's now ranked 1st with 21.29%.

The league average is 15.21%.

Yea that explains allot. Thanks

 

[Jet]

Yea that explains allot. Thanks

The question is:

Have teams figured out the Jets PP to some extent, causing less dangerous shots?
Have the players on the PP gone into a SH% slump??
Has the PP regressed a bit from the dynamic movement that made them so successful?

I feel like its a bit of all TBH. Teams are really protecting against the 1T to Connor. I don't see quite as much dynamic movement. Vilardi also stopped forcing his way to the front of the net from the side as much. Also shots that were going in aren't as much - maybe a release or accuracy thing.

I'd like to see the PP introduce a new wrinkle to give PKs something else to worry about, that could open up some of our money plays a bit more.

 

[Gm0ney]

The question is:

Have teams figured out the Jets PP to some extent, causing less dangerous shots?
Have the players on the PP gone into a SH% slump??
Has the PP regressed a bit from the dynamic movement that made them so successful?

I feel like its a bit of all TBH. Teams are really protecting against the 1T to Connor. I don't see quite as much dynamic movement. Vilardi also stopped forcing his way to the front of the net from the side as much. Also shots that were going in aren't as much - maybe a release or accuracy thing.

I'd like to see the PP introduce a new wrinkle to give PKs something else to worry about, that could open up some of our money plays a bit more.

Maybe some teams have been planning for it a bit more, but I think this is mostly SH% regression to the mean. They're still shooting 21.25% overall which is 6.04 over the league average of 15.21%.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Not really directly Perfetti or Ehlers related, but I have a bit of bad news about the powerplay...it's gone from running hot to running cold.

	Pre 4Nations / 56 games	Post 4Nations / 16 games
PP%	33.3%, 1st	16.7%, 24th, -16.6
CF/60	99.49, 22nd	99.67, 19th, +0.18
FF/60	77.47, 12th	78.55, 13th, +1.08
GF/60	13.21, 1st	5.91, 24th, -7.30
xGF/60	8.73, 11th	8.24, 15th, -0.49
SCF/60	54.93, 17th	54.90, 17th, -0.03
HDCF/60	27.98, 8th	21.12, 17th, -6.86

Regression is here. The Jets have gone from outshooting xG by 4.48 to undershooting xG by 2.33 - a 6.81 swing. Most metrics line up pretty closely except for HDCF/60 which is down 25% (but actual goals are down 55% and xGF/60 isn't down that much).

By my eye test, we are going back to static, pass around the perimeter play. Until we decide to make a very low percentage pass to lose possession.

Ehlers still the only one throwing a little chaos into the PP and getting the opposition unsettled.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think the PP comes to life tonight.

 

[ps241]

The question is:

Have teams figured out the Jets PP to some extent, causing less dangerous shots?
Have the players on the PP gone into a SH% slump??
Has the PP regressed a bit from the dynamic movement that made them so successful?

I feel like its a bit of all TBH. Teams are really protecting against the 1T to Connor. I don't see quite as much dynamic movement. Vilardi also stopped forcing his way to the front of the net from the side as much. Also shots that were going in aren't as much - maybe a release or accuracy thing.

I'd like to see the PP introduce a new wrinkle to give PKs something else to worry about, that could open up some of our money plays a bit more.

Probably allot shooting % which impacts confidence then they start to overthink it a bit. The good news is according to Murat the Jets PK has been the best in the NHL since the 4Nations in goals against per 60 minutes.

Our PK shooting % overcorrected a bit and my guess is we will find a bit more balance soon.

 

[Jet]

Probably allot shooting % which impacts confidence then they start to overthink it a bit. The good news is according to Murat the Jets PK has been the best in the NHL since the 4Nations in goals against per 60 minutes.

Our PK shooting % overcorrected a bit and my guess is we will find a bit more balance soon.

Well we know pk will be more important as the nhl seems to hate giving us pps

 

[Buffdog]

Probably allot shooting % which impacts confidence then they start to overthink it a bit. The good news is according to Murat the Jets PK has been the best in the NHL since the 4Nations in goals against per 60 minutes.

Our PK shooting % overcorrected a bit and my guess is we will find a bit more balance soon.

Chicken and egg, no?

If the PP isn't executing as well as they were prior to getting a shot off, it's probably less likely to go in - resulting in a lower shooting percentage

I think people are mixing up the lower shooting percentage as being the cause of a less effective power play, rather than the result of it

 

[ps241]

Chicken and egg, no?

If the PP isn't executing as well as they were prior to getting a shot off, it's probably less likely to go in - resulting in a lower shooting percentage

I think people are mixing up the lower shooting percentage as being the cause of a less effective power play, rather than the result of it

Watching shooting % over the years there is a randomness to it, it can run hot and cold for sure. I certainly would not concede its (mostly) because we are running a less effective power play. Some of the shooting % dip could be that we are getting less high danger chances (running a less effective power play) but it wouldn’t explain away such a huge drop in shooting %. More likely a regression to the mean or at least that is my opinion.

23.83 shooting % was not sustainable. Nor will we keep shooting 11.86% like we have since the 4 Nations.

 

[Hobble]

Haven’t seen the Vilardi dipsy doodle in front of the net goal on PP in awhile. Feel teams may have found tape on that one.

 

[Jet]

Haven’t seen the Vilardi dipsy doodle in front of the net goal on PP in awhile. Feel teams may have found tape on that one.

For me though, even if it doesn't work, it draws the D closer to the side of the net which should open up that mid ice seam.