Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[DRW204]

He went a month - 14 games - with only 2 points while playing on the 2nd line and the 2nd powerplay unit...and he'd had a similar dry spell the previous season. It wasn't an insane take to think he had been overestimated. I didn't agree with that take, but I can see where people were coming from.

his 5v5 points trend up until Feb was similar to last year if you look at in a monthly segmentation, however you can see the clear divergence after that which he deserve props for turning around and producing. the big downward trend and rock bottom February in 23-24 probably triggered Chevy to spend to get top-6 help last year.

imo & i missed last night's game, but moreso over the past few weeks, he's been much more assertive offensively compared to earlier this season (the recent Rangers game comes to mind instantly as an example), which bodes well for the Jets in the POs. if the Jets can get that level over ~3/4's of a season rather than ~1/3 as we've been accustomed to over the past 2 seasons, that'd be a big boost to the fwd group into the future.

 

[Gm0ney]

Scheifele hasn't scored in 9 games and plays 6-8 more mins than Perfetti and is on the number #1 PP does that mean Scheifele is bad?
It's called a slump but if the team is winning why is he judged on his scoring?
I don't look at last year's stats for players who are up coming players ... I look at how they improve their game from game to game. And yes they are allowed a stinker here and there.

Not sure that's a good comparison - Scheifele's got 7 points in the last 9 games and a 12 season track record to judge him by, so to say Scheifele's bad because of his last 9 games would, in fact, be an insane take.

But I don't even know if anyone was saying Perfetti was bad - just that maybe he wasn't going to be as good as expected.

 

[Gm0ney]

his 5v5 points trend up until Feb was similar to last year if you look at in a monthly segmentation, however you can see the clear divergence after that which he deserve props for turning around and producing. the big downward trend and rock bottom February in 23-24 probably triggered Chevy to spend to get top-6 help last year.

imo & i missed last night's game, but moreso over the past few weeks, he's been much more assertive offensively compared to earlier this season (the recent Rangers game comes to mind instantly as an example), which bodes well for the Jets in the POs. if the Jets can get that level over ~3/4's of a season rather than ~1/3 as we've been accustomed to over the past 2 seasons, that'd be a big boost to the fwd group into the future.


View attachment 999926

Right at that point in January where the lines diverge is where Bones elected to bust Perfetti down the lineup and healthy scratch him here and there, where this year Arniel left him in place to work through it on the ice.

And surixon's points about differing offense vs. defense focus seem to make sense. Although Scheifele seemed more of a 200-foot center prior to 2018 than after...but maybe that was just Prime Wheeler pushing the play on that CSW line until he started to lose a step.

 

[DRW204]

Not sure that's a good comparison - Scheifele's got 7 points in the last 9 games and a 12 season track record to judge him by, so to say Scheifele's bad because of his last 9 games would, in fact, be an insane take.

But I don't even know if anyone was saying Perfetti was bad - just that maybe he wasn't going to be as good as expected.

it's one of the more ridiculous comparisons i see on here. i've seen it brought up with even crosby by a ceratin poster.

"look at sidney crosby he hasn't scored in x games and y amount of points in that time frame" meanwhile he's posting PPG+ numbers for the season as opposed to hovering around 40 pts. like there's levels to it. not to mention the larger onus & value in playing center.

Right at that point in January where the lines diverge is where Bones elected to bust Perfetti down the lineup and healthy scratch him here and there, where this year Arniel left him in place to work through it on the ice.

And surixon's points about differing offense vs. defense focus seem to make sense. Although Scheifele seemed more of a 200-foot center prior to 2018 than after...but maybe that was just Prime Wheeler pushing the play on that CSW line until he started to lose a step.

January was his highest 5v5 TOI/gp by month that season. and still played 11gp in Feb, roughly around the same TOI/gp he was averaging for the year. but toward the end of Feb was when he started getting demoted for not producing and the Jets brought in reinforcements which ultimately led to being scratched. ideally i would have had him on a line similar to how Roslovic was used in 17-18 with Little and Perreault.

not sure if i agree with the offense/defense thing fully scheifele was fine in 2-way play up until 2019 iirc. the line is perfetti-namestnikov-ehlers, @voyageur often points this out and i believe it too, namestnikov does alot of the 2-way support things really well while the other 2 who are top-of-the-draft picks are a bit more shifted towards producing and being the offensive catalysts as top-6ers. tbh i don't think any of the Forwards on the Jets this year have been bad in 2-way play.

 

[Jet]

I don't know why people were so hard on Perfetti ... yes he had a scoring slump. In that slump how many goalposts did he hit or was part of a goalie highlight save. I only recall one bad game this year where he was off ... he ended up with -3. People always look at the scoresheet and make assumptions he's no good because he not scoring. Keeping the opposing team off the scoresheet is a good thing not bad.

I think it was more than a scoring slump. He was pretty ineffective for over a month, and that coupled with his swoon last year at the same time was legitimate cause for concern. You have to wonder if a player has what it takes to perform when the games get more important and the opposition more desperate.

Coel is starting to prove he has what it takes. I really can't wait to see how he plays in the playoffs.

 

[Jet]

He went a month - 14 games - with only 2 points while playing on the 2nd line and the 2nd powerplay unit...and he'd had a similar dry spell the previous season. It wasn't an insane take to think he had been overestimated. I didn't agree with that take, but I can see where people were coming from.

What have you done with the real Gm0ney?

 

[Jet]

Scheifele hasn't scored in 9 games and plays 6-8 more mins than Perfetti and is on the number #1 PP does that mean Scheifele is bad?
It's called a slump but if the team is winning why is he judged on his scoring?
I don't look at last year's stats for players who are up coming players ... I look at how they improve their game from game to game. And yes they are allowed a stinker here and there.

That's pretty disingenuous. Mark Scheifele has years of demonstrated ability - you can look back on his body of work and easily recognize that its a slump (or as I believe, playing through something).

All we had on Cole is that he slumped post Christmas last year too so it wasn't unreasonable to wonder if this was a more serious limitation in his game (endurance, mental fortitude, etc.)

I know I was worried and I'm so glad that my worrying was for nothing.

 

[NA Hockey]

Interesting thread on twitter comparing players across the league assuming they played 20 mins a game

 

[surixon]

Interesting thread on twitter comparing players across the league assuming they played 20 mins a game

Good post. Minutes play a role in points and moving forward if we want him to be a first line 60 plus point guy he's going to need a couple more minutes a game starting next year.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think

Good post. Minutes play a role in points and moving forward if we want him to be a first line 60 plus point guy he's going to need a couple more minutes a game starting next year.

and he’ll get them next year after ehlers is gone.

 

[Gm0ney]

I think

and he’ll get them next year after ehlers is gone.

They play on the same line, so I don't know how that's going to work. They could put him on PP1 in Ehlers' spot, but I'm not sure if that's as effective a unit if you make that change.

 

[Gm0ney]

What have you done with the real Gm0ney?

I always look at both sides of the argument. Sometimes the other side makes sense, sometimes I think it's unreasonable.

 

[Adam da bomb]

They play on the same line, so I don't know how that's going to work. They could put him on PP1 in Ehlers' spot, but I'm not sure if that's as effective a unit if you make that change.

I think, sadly that Ehlers is going to want out. Therefore, I am suggesting he will Ehlers pp1 time whether it's as effective or not.

 

[surixon]

They play on the same line, so I don't know how that's going to work. They could put him on PP1 in Ehlers' spot, but I'm not sure if that's as effective a unit if you make that change.

He'd also get his rotation 4 on 4 and 3 on 3. But really what should happen is line 1 should get a few less minutes per game.

 

[raideralex99]

That's pretty disingenuous. Mark Scheifele has years of demonstrated ability - you can look back on his body of work and easily recognize that its a slump (or as I believe, playing through something).

All we had on Cole is that he slumped post Christmas last year too so it wasn't unreasonable to wonder if this was a more serious limitation in his game (endurance, mental fortitude, etc.)

I know I was worried and I'm so glad that my worrying was for nothing.

My point was it was a player's slump. Perfetti was playing good just was not scoring THIS year. People were not watching his whole game but now they are finally noticing it more because he is also scoring again.
Last year was a learning experience its a long season and that was the most games he played and he got benched.
Don't forgot the covid year Perfetti lost one year of development.
Some people think a rookie should just step in and be a star.
First 3 seasons Scheifele only play 74 games and scored 14 goals ... 35 points playing 16.30 mins
First 2 seasons Perfetti play 69 games and scored 10 goals ... 37 points playing 14 mins.
I'm only comparing Perfetti to Scheifele in development time not talent at this point.

 

[raideralex99]

I think, sadly that Ehlers is going to want out. Therefore, I am suggesting he will Ehlers pp1 time whether it's as effective or not.

How soon they forget ... everybody thought Scheifele and Hellebuyck were gone too.
Why worried about it ... the Jets are having a great season right now enjoy it ... no need to bring in the doom and gloom stuff.

 

[10Ducky10]

Scheif has 10 points in his last10 games.
We should hope that most of the rest of the team should go on such a slump...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They play on the same line, so I don't know how that's going to work. They could put him on PP1 in Ehlers' spot, but I'm not sure if that's as effective a unit if you make that change.

Its not as effective a unit, but if you can't have Ehlers who else do you go to?

 

[surixon]

Its not as effective a unit, but if you can't have Ehlers who else do you go to?

It also very well could be if our coach can design a custom role for Cole's skill set.

 

[Bob E]

Really liking Cole's game right now. If he can continue to build on his last 20+ games, then he definitely becomes a core player with this group.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It also very well could be if our coach can design a custom role for Cole's skill set.

Not impossible but that is asking a lot.

 

[surixon]

Not impossible but that is asking a lot.

I mean I don't expect it to be as good as it was this year even with Ehlers back next year.

 

[winnipegger]

Much like Scheifele development. Struggled until he was strong enough to create space for himself. Puck protection is one of the things that separates top offensive players from everyone else. They give themselves time to look around and think. If you are easily pushed over you can't do it. I was hoping Laine would be like Jagr and be impossible to move. But he never developed this skill and it's the reason he flamed out. It's just too easy to crowd his space and take away his time to think.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I mean I don't expect it to be as good as it was this year even with Ehlers back next year.

Fair enough. It already isn't as good as it was. Been in a coma recently.

 

[Gm0ney]

Its not as effective a unit, but if you can't have Ehlers who else do you go to?

Not really directly Perfetti or Ehlers related, but I have a bit of bad news about the powerplay...it's gone from running hot to running cold.

	Pre 4Nations / 56 games	Post 4Nations / 16 games
PP%	33.3%, 1st	16.7%, 24th, -16.6
CF/60	99.49, 22nd	99.67, 19th, +0.18
FF/60	77.47, 12th	78.55, 13th, +1.08
GF/60	13.21, 1st	5.91, 24th, -7.30
xGF/60	8.73, 11th	8.24, 15th, -0.49
SCF/60	54.93, 17th	54.90, 17th, -0.03
HDCF/60	27.98, 8th	21.12, 17th, -6.86

Regression is here. The Jets have gone from outshooting xG by 4.48 to undershooting xG by 2.33 - a 6.81 swing. Most metrics line up pretty closely except for HDCF/60 which is down 25% (but actual goals are down 55% and xGF/60 isn't down that much).