I still have hope for Perfetti, but his development has been slightly disappointing. As a team that can't rely on bringing in top Free Agents or trading for a lot of top guys (NMCs) we have to do better at the draft/develop than we have the past half of the Jets' existence.
Looking specifically at the first round, there are really 3 "eras" of draft picks for us.
The most recent years 2022-present don't really count since those guys are still just starting to become full time pros and have a crack at the NHL roster.
The first group of picks 2011 up to the first half of 2016 are all the core of our team and top level contributors. Scheifele, Trouba (traded for Pionk + Heinola), Morrissey, Ehlers, Connor were all hits.
Average draft position = 11th overall. Next came Laine 2nd overall, who was turned into Vilardi, Iafallo, and Kupari as well as another 2nd rd pick in the too early to call category. These were still wins and acceptable outcomes from the prospects' values and the resulting trades we recouped.
2011 - 7th Overall - Mark Scheifele - Hit
2012 - 9th Overall - Jacob Trouba - Hit
2013 - 13th Overall - Josh Morrissey - Hit
2014 - 9th Overall - Nikolaj Ehlers - Hit
2015 - 17th Overall - Kyle Connor - Hit
2015 - 25th Overall - Jack Roslovic - Hit?
2016 - 2nd Overall - Patrik Laine - Hit
The real let down has begun at everyone's favourite Stanley as the 2nd 1st rounder of 2016 and everyone else up until the 2022 draft.
2016 - 18th Overall - Logan Stanley - Miss
2017 - 24th Overall - Kristian Vesalainen - Miss
2018 - No First Round Pick (Stastny)
2019 - 20th Overall - Ville Heinola - Miss
2020 - 10th Overall - Cole Perfetti - Hit (but jury is still out)
2021 - 18th Overall - Chaz Lucius - Miss
Thats 5 picks made that resulted in 1 NHL player (Perfetti). Granted the average draft spot is way down for those at 18th overall, but for basically being the middle of the 1st round on average, we need to have at least 2-3 of those picks cash in in our market, or at the very least be tradeable prospect assets to make solid returns like Laine and Trouba.
If Perfetti "hits" as a solid middle 6er that's great, but the root of the Jets' lack of oomph to get over the hump in the first round - aside from a lot of draft capital burnt on rentals to varying success - is that after our first handful of drafts our 1st round drafting and developing has been abysmal. Perfetti still has a chance to be a success story in the middle of that, but he needs to show more and has even more pressure to succeed on him given the void of talent we've drafted in years all around him.
Someone once upon a time did a summary of the Jets drafting - From 2011-2016 the Jets had the 3rd highest average first pick in the league. Higher pick = higher chance of getting a quality player evidently, plus the Jets depth chart was opening up.
Isolate your draft picks into PO team picks (16th-32nd) vs non-PO team (1-15) and the player quality is a big difference evidently.
Just looking at 1sts from pick 16th onward (excluding Barlow): Connor, Roslovic, Stanley, Vesalainen (Samberg a few picks later was a hit though), Heinola, and Lucius. So on the 1sts: one legit top 6er and the rest is a whole lotta meh/replacement talent or worse. I think that's essentially what you can expect (aka Average) for picks in that range over that amount of years.
The Jets usually need to do better than average on drafting since FA and trades aren't typically fruitful... However they have done pretty well in finding trades as of late compared to the early Jets 2.0 days. Vilardi, Nino, DeMelo, and Names (even with his gripes this season) were v good trade acquisitions. I'll say Stastny too a couple years ago. But I'd still they're really have been lacking on the Defensive side in my view, and developing Centers.
I think the Jets have been doing better in trades which offsets some of their draft and develop woes. And when a well-respected player like Dillon was hoping to sign back here, and was displeased that he was not signed earlier by the team, i think that speaks to the progress that the organization has made around the league, and that goodwill may open up more FA or players waiving to come to Winnipeg.
So, in short, I agree the Jets haven't been as good at drafting/develop, their pick quality has changed, and they have found other ways to fill the roster like alot of other nhl teams.
Back to the discussion on this year, the Jets imo need a top 6 upgrade on either Perfetti or Namestnikov. I think you can get by with 1 of them in a top 6 scoring line, but not both.
