last 3 years lorwy cf/60 55.46, copp 57.05.....ehlers leads the team at cf/60 of 61. most of the team is in lowry and copp's range so they seem to be fine.
Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA Pick - signed ELC 9/11
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They generate decent shot volumes but fall fairly far back in terms of scoring chances created xgf per 60 though. They shine in XGA/60 stat though.
I'm not saying they don't create some chance but their primary focus is in limiting the oppositons chances and as a result they don't create a lot of chances and don't score that much as a result.
- Mar 10, 2010
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Thank you that is a thoughtful post. Very sorry you lost a friend to Covid that is brutal. My condolences to you, your friend, and your buddies other friends and family.
Covid has certainly kicked the shit out of my livelihood but it’s just money. I have been fortunate to have not lost a loved one or friend yet. I truly feel for those who have been taken down and their friends and family. Tough way to go often alone in a hospital.
This too shall pass.
When it comes to the world juniors I was just questioning if the political will was going to remain there to follow through on this. At the end of the days it’s just a kids tournament and there are no livelihoods at stake. Are all the countries going to follow through and send their teams? Is Canada still cool to open the borders? Will rinks stay open in Alberta? I know there are TV obligations and this is a big deal in Canada but I would think with numbers heading in the wrong direction this seems like low hanging fruit.
When Lowry or Copp start a shift in their own zone, they limit shots against and end up generating more shots for than the rest of their team or the NHL after.
The opposite is true for Scheifele or Connor.
Well Hockey Canada's VP was on yesterday and he indicated that support was still very high from both the Provincial and Federal Governments.
They would have to pull the plug on it pretty soon if they were going to do that though as teams are scheduled to arrive in just over 2 weeks.
My guess is they continue with it as the bubble worked just great for the NHL playoffs so no reason why it wouldn't work just as well for a junior tournament.
I think its also about giving the country something to cheer about over what is likely to be a very lonely holiday season.
exactly, so i am not sure how players forget offense when they play with them. more times than not, the play is going the other way when they're on the ice which is more shooting opportunities.
- Mar 10, 2010
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Well onward tally-Ho I guess
I certainly will watch away more junior hockey this holiday season if everyone is good to go?
- Mar 10, 2010
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Seems like allot of fans and the market are blinded by offensive numbers and massively undervalue forwards defensive impact. Actual net impact is so critical. It’s also a lot more cap efficient. Seems like simple logic but who am I to say?? As long as you can score 30 goals who cares if you give up 30 I guess? I realize these charts are more a measurement of shot generation but my point stands.
They are an effective line. I would like to keep them together. Its the function of the fourth line that pisses me off with Mauroce. No reason not to have a 3b offensive line that can outscore the opposition in a different manner.
you would think so. however his scoring efficiency when ever he's in the top 6 is actually worse than when he's in the bottom 6.
he played with Laine and Little in 2018 and put up 2 pts in ~20 gp (outside of the PP). 0.66 EV Points/60
he played with Ehlers and Wheeler last season and put up 7 pts in ~40 gp (outside of PP). 1.23 EV Points/60
his best year as far as scoring efficiency is still 17-18 when he played mostly with Perreault and Little.
Laine struggled that season and i remember Roslovic setting him up with passes in the slot and Laine not finishing. It was great passes and this year Laine would have finished them but it went down as a goose egg for both of them. Also Wheeler and Roslovic are both playmakers and need that snippity, sniper. Ehlers can snipe but plays better as a playmaker and line-driver.
I can see him playing well with Perrault and Little as all 3 of them are very North to south. Roslovic looked best last year with Harkins and appleton also North to South guys. Also playing centre.
Second question, isn't 1.23 ev an acceptable number?
To tie it back with cole, I think Maurice is reluctant to give young guys a shot at centre and whether Roslovic would have looked better if Wheeler had just been the winger so Roslovic could maintain the centre duties such as playing lower in their end and not chasing as much.
1.23 are fourth line rates so not very good. But it is a bit misleading as he didn't collect very many secondary assists. In terms of primary points per 60 his production was okish.
Thank you for correcting. anyway how did we get to talking about Roslovic? I just hope Cole is properly developed and given the opportunities to reach his full potential.
I think Roslovic was brought up as a potential skilled C that some feel hasn't been developed properly and worry if Cole might be developed similarly.
for the entire year roslovic was 1.69 ev points/60, so his scoring efficiency in the top 6 actually drags that down.
convo about drafted prospects and development
the jets haven't developed at top 6 c outside of scheifele.
is this b/c prospects are not good enough? or flaw in the coach/development?
- Mar 10, 2010
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I don't really think Perfetti falls into Roslo's category. Up until last season Jack would have had to usurp Little and hes just not there yet. Last season Jack left me wanting and I just don't think he punched to the weight of a 2nd line centre yet. Any coach can only do so much and playing Jack at 2nd line center for a team chasing the playoffs where every game counts wasn't the right play especially with how weak the D core was and how poor our top 6 forward were at defense. Whatever sheltered is that would have been the exact opposite.
For Perfetti some of this is going to come down to the situation. How long do the Jets commit to Paul S? Is this a one and done stop gap thing or do we squeeze another season out of Paul? Who goes to Seattle who stays? What assets come back if Laine is traded? The laundry list of what if's is significant but to tell you the truth none of it matters if Cole is good enough at center. Cole is a extremely gifted kid with decent enough defensive instincts that when he gets a shot and holds his own they will be in no rush to move him out. The org is waiting for Jack to take the next step but it hasn't happened at any position YET let alone center. My belief is Cole will be a very different situation in every way.
I think the org has moved has moved past Jack being a future piece here myself. I just found his development at the NHL level interesting. Here's a kid that shot out lights at every level until he reached the NHL were he has spent a lot of time in the bottom 6 with muckers and grinders and hasn't been able transition to a top 6 role in the few chances he's gotten. Jack is still a solid third line RW though so he's not a failed pick in the least but I think many feel he could have been more then that.
I agree that Cole is of a much higher pedigree but I would like to see Mauroce trust the kid at center right off the bat. Give him a Copp as one linemate and a skilled player as another and let him develop. That wouldn't be consistent with how he's handled other centers in the org though so we will just have to wait and see.
As for Stastney I can see them brining him back for a year after this one as they slowly transition Cole into that 2C hole, much like how Olie was the stop gap for Mark.
Perfetti has a clearer path to top 6 C than what Roslovic had a few years ago. So i think he'll get that opportunity faster than Roslovic comparatively.
Roslovic at C was not superior to Little or Scheifele. He was never going to play over them. Probably not superior to Wheeler either. This org is in love with Lowry, so he'll never play over Lowry. So he could play "4C" getting 5ish mins a night?
Perfetti on the other hand; Little likely gone, so a 2C spot is up for grabs, and he should be better than all the other Cs on the roster within the first 2 years.....this is assuming Stastny is a one-and-done. Also Lowry is a UFA next year, and Copp - who knows if he is here long-term
Roslovic at C was not superior to Little or Scheifele. He was never going to play over them. Probably not superior to Wheeler either. This org is in love with Lowry, so he'll never play over Lowry. So he could play "4C" getting 5ish mins a night?
Perfetti on the other hand; Little likely gone, so a 2C spot is up for grabs, and he should be better than all the other Cs on the roster within the first 2 years.....this is assuming Stastny is a one-and-done. Also Lowry is a UFA next year, and Copp - who knows if he is here long-term
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- Mar 10, 2010
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Stastny would be the ideal mentor for Cole IMO. I know the guys don't share rooms on the road anymore but I would love for Perfetti to travel with Paul and be a sponge and learn how to be a calm mature professional from him on and off the ice. Cole could hang out with Mark and geek out on hockey 24/7 on days off as long as "Oatsy" didn't get his hooks in Cole. Maybe keep Copp around to chaperone. Cole is a smart enough to figure all this out without any help and the fact he is modeling his game after Point is a good thing. Good habits please Cole it would be nice if you could learn how to play D and transitional play from Paul please.......and thank you.
Couldn’t agree more about stastny being a great role model for Perfetti.
Stastny is a player who doesn’t have many elite skills apart from hockey sense but he’s had a great career. He’s not a great skater or shooter but always seems to be in the right spots making the right plays. If Perfetti could take those qualities and improve his skating, he could be a special player.
Atoyot
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Those 20 games with Laine and Little show how much of an effect luck can have. Laine went on the worst scoring drought of his career there, and it had nothing to do with Roslovic, he was setting Laine up plenty with grade A chances that just weren't going. If their luck was as good as it was bad, he could have been a point per game player during that stretch.
I have so many thoughts, I'll break them down into a few posts!
I HATE that so many NHL organizations pat themselves on their backs for 'DEVELOPING' a player. Truth is, the work you did as a 5-18 year old is all on the athlete - and has nothing to do with the NHL club that called their name. If you make the NHL as an 18 year old, it has NOTHING to do with a 5 day summer camp, and everything to do with your earlier life. If you play your 19 / 20 year old seasons in Junior, NCAA or Europe, then you'll grow there.
Truth is, ALL PLAYERS get better with age until about 21. Your body, coordination and strength improves. Whether or not you were drafted by an NHL team, or went undrafted, 99% of players will see an improvement in their game as they go from 18 to 19 years old.
OK - so how does a player grow? Patrick Kane spends his summers (and some in season) with Darryl Belfry to work on real skill that improves his game. So does John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Crosby and many more. Adam Oates has a large stable of players including many Jets players. Connor McDavid is a devout follower of Power Edge Pro counter movement training. So is Cole Perfetti, and MANY more NHL players. BioSteel runs two week skills and tactical camps that attract top end players. Gary Roberts has the market cornered on plyometrics, explosiveness and overall fitness. THIS IS ALL PAID OUT OF THE PLAYERS OWN POCKETS. They PAY their OWN money to develop their skills in the offseason.
Sometimes, there is no room on an NHL roster, so players play in the NHL. Do they grow? Yes, of course they do. They would also grow in Europe or other leagues.
Truth is, Maurice (and all NHL coaches) are there to coach a cohesive structure. When it comes to individual development, they're no more than puppeteers that can give or take away opportunity. They can play you with talented linemates or healthy scratch you. NHL coaching tactics for young players is mostly fear based mind games. Being in a position of power, they absolutely verbally and mentally abuse young players in compliance. It would not be tolerated in any other form of society, but somehow is accepted in all sports.
I HATE that so many NHL organizations pat themselves on their backs for 'DEVELOPING' a player. Truth is, the work you did as a 5-18 year old is all on the athlete - and has nothing to do with the NHL club that called their name. If you make the NHL as an 18 year old, it has NOTHING to do with a 5 day summer camp, and everything to do with your earlier life. If you play your 19 / 20 year old seasons in Junior, NCAA or Europe, then you'll grow there.
Truth is, ALL PLAYERS get better with age until about 21. Your body, coordination and strength improves. Whether or not you were drafted by an NHL team, or went undrafted, 99% of players will see an improvement in their game as they go from 18 to 19 years old.
OK - so how does a player grow? Patrick Kane spends his summers (and some in season) with Darryl Belfry to work on real skill that improves his game. So does John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Crosby and many more. Adam Oates has a large stable of players including many Jets players. Connor McDavid is a devout follower of Power Edge Pro counter movement training. So is Cole Perfetti, and MANY more NHL players. BioSteel runs two week skills and tactical camps that attract top end players. Gary Roberts has the market cornered on plyometrics, explosiveness and overall fitness. THIS IS ALL PAID OUT OF THE PLAYERS OWN POCKETS. They PAY their OWN money to develop their skills in the offseason.
Sometimes, there is no room on an NHL roster, so players play in the NHL. Do they grow? Yes, of course they do. They would also grow in Europe or other leagues.
Truth is, Maurice (and all NHL coaches) are there to coach a cohesive structure. When it comes to individual development, they're no more than puppeteers that can give or take away opportunity. They can play you with talented linemates or healthy scratch you. NHL coaching tactics for young players is mostly fear based mind games. Being in a position of power, they absolutely verbally and mentally abuse young players in compliance. It would not be tolerated in any other form of society, but somehow is accepted in all sports.
I do agree that a lot of the development is on the player however I still think there is room for the coaching staff to positively impact development but mostly in the forms of decision making through the use of video. I also think they can impact on ice positioning and through accountability foster good habits.
But I do agree that the biggest impact they have is with regards to thebopportunity given to the player.
Regarding Braydon Point - I agree he should have gone higher in draft, but the narrative has become folklore. He did score 91 pts his draft year, but played 72 games. Also of note, he absolutely feasted on the PP that season and actually only scored 51 pts at even strength which is relatively pedestrian relative to 'high end' draft eligible CHL players.
As a hobby, I created my mathematical value ranking of CHL players drafted in the last 8 years.
My value score:
EV Strength Goals / Game = x3
EV Stength Assist / Game = x2
PP Goal / Game = x2
PP Assist / Game = x1.5
I then add a factor of the percentage of your overall team's offence. If your team scored 300 Goals in the games you played, and you scored 100 PTS, that is 33% of of the team. I do for both overall goals and EV goals only. This helps to normalize players that play on low scoring teams, but drive a large portion of their offense. The results will be on next post
As a hobby, I created my mathematical value ranking of CHL players drafted in the last 8 years.
My value score:
EV Strength Goals / Game = x3
EV Stength Assist / Game = x2
PP Goal / Game = x2
PP Assist / Game = x1.5
I then add a factor of the percentage of your overall team's offence. If your team scored 300 Goals in the games you played, and you scored 100 PTS, that is 33% of of the team. I do for both overall goals and EV goals only. This helps to normalize players that play on low scoring teams, but drive a large portion of their offense. The results will be on next post
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