Cole Caufield: Is this the year?

[Ozmodiar]

Yeah, some fans need to pull creative stats to justify their hopes of what a player will be.

As far as CC goes, 50, perhaps that talk can occur when he hits the 30 mark just once in a single. All the PG or over X games is nonsense - the numbers are what he has accomplished.

Roy is another story, a guy who done nothing at the NHL level of any significance to warrant being crowned a 2nd line guy or any kind of calder talk. 9 pts in 23 games isn't anything special that can justify that kind of talk. All this talk can begin when he can actually make the team, lol.

Like all fanbases, there are a group that overhype their teams guys, its normal, just a little more extreme with this fan base.

Yeah, nobody cares about stats that are stretched over 2 half seasons. A “40 goal scorer” does it in one season. Have you ever heard anyone reputable discussing an “N goal scorer” using an asterisked time range?

… and if you try to use it as a predictor for 1 season, there’s a good chance you’ll be wrong and then might just make up excuses for the lack of production.

Last season - 28 goals, which was a dip. I’m guessing 35. Give or take, depending on usage.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

30G, 50A, go get'em baby

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yeah, some fans need to pull creative stats to justify their hopes of what a player will be.

There’s nothing creative about looking at a player’s last 82 games.

As far as CC goes, 50, perhaps that talk can occur when he hits the 30 mark just once in a single. All the PG or over X games is nonsense - the numbers are what he has accomplished.

Roy is another story, a guy who done nothing at the NHL level of any significance to warrant being crowned a 2nd line guy or any kind of calder talk. 9 pts in 23 games isn't anything special that can justify that kind of talk. All this talk can begin when he can actually make the team, lol.

Like all fanbases, there are a group that overhype their teams guys, its normal, just a little more extreme with this fan base.

Has nothing to do with him being ‘one of ours’. The numbers are what they are. There was every reason to believe he’d be 40 plus. And he went out and put up 300 plus shots. All the underlying numbers for a 50 goal season were there.

The only thing that stopped him was his shot went bust because of the surgery. This has been proven to you already.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yeah, nobody cares about stats that are stretched over 2 half seasons.

If you’re taking about goals in a season? You’re right. If you’re talking about predictive stats for what a player will do then they’re obviously relevant. How would they not be?

A “40 goal scorer” does it in one season. Have you ever heard anyone reputable discussing an “N goal scorer” using an asterisked time range?

… and if you try to use it as a predictor for 1 season, there’s a good chance you’ll be wrong and then might just make up excuses for the lack of production.

Last season - 28 goals, which was a dip. I’m guessing 35. Give or take, depending on usage.

Right… we use past stats to predict the future. Exactly as we did before last season and exactly what you’re doing here.

We revise based on what a player does. His last 82 was a 28 goal year - almost solely because of shots from mid ice. So we have to assume the surgery will still affect him next year.

I agree, 35 is probably a good target.

 

[Theodore450]

25g 30 assists. I could see him failing to reach that. Gonna be a lonnnnnng season

 

[Habby4Life]

There’s nothing creative about looking at a player’s last 82 games.

Has nothing to do with him being ‘one of ours’. The numbers are what they are. There was every reason to believe he’d be 40 plus. And he went out and put up 300 plus shots. All the underlying numbers for a 50 goal season were there.

The only thing that stopped him was his shot went bust because of the surgery. This has been proven to you already.

He has yet to hit 30, that’s what he has accomplished, that’s the fact. We can talk 50 when he cracks the 30 barrier in one season, lol.

Proven - complete nonsense, thanks but I’ll stick with MSL and CC thoughts over some rando HF guy who knows squat about CCs health etc. Proven, only in your head.

 

[Habby4Life]

Yeah, nobody cares about stats that are stretched over 2 half seasons. A “40 goal scorer” does it in one season. Have you ever heard anyone reputable discussing an “N goal scorer” using an asterisked time range?

… and if you try to use it as a predictor for 1 season, there’s a good chance you’ll be wrong and then might just make up excuses for the lack of production.

Last season - 28 goals, which was a dip. I’m guessing 35. Give or take, depending on usage.

He will be a 40 goal scorer when he does it in a single season, not when some fan picks some time range, just that simple.

Also, projecting him to be a 50 guy is so premature when he hasn’t even hit 30, so that first then we can talk, lol.


Same nonsense with Roy, we can talk he is a suitable 2nd liner when he can actually make the team and do something.

25g 30 assists. I could see him failing to reach that. Gonna be a lonnnnnng season

That would be a bad season for him but who knows, everything depends on health. If NS goes down for any stretch this club could get regulated to the AHL.

 

[OldCraig71]

43 goals and 27 assists. I originally typed 30 goals and 30ish assists but a divine force instructed me to delete it. It isn't my prediction people, it came from somewhere else.

Someone bookmark this.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

He has yet to hit 30, that’s what he has accomplished, that’s the fact.

It doesn't matter.

When you're predicting what a player will do you look at past performance and scoring rates. Slafkovsky's never hit 60. Does that mean he won't do it this year?

We can talk 50 when he cracks the 30 barrier in one season, lol.

Your 'lol' is not convincing. 48 in 82 is.

Again, you look at what a player has done and extrapolate from there.

Proven - complete nonsense, thanks but I’ll stick with MSL and CC thoughts over some rando HF guy who knows squat about CCs health etc. Proven, only in your head.

No, the numbers came up and they were exactly what I told you. Then you went quiet. Now you're back with more 'lols'.

His percentage was a third of what it was at mid ice. The delta was 20 goals. If it wasn't his shot... then what was it?

 

[JoelWarlord]

I don't really understand the snark about the 48 in 82 thing. It's not like those were stats exclusively from games played in the central time zone between 70% and 90% humidity with the moon between 1/4 and 1/2 phase or something. It was 75% of Caufield's career GP at that point. He played 10 games as a rookie and then 20ish games under Ducharme while every single player on the team struggled to produce and then scored 48 actual real-life NHL goals in his subsequent 82 games played which was the remainder of 21-22 and his entire 22-23 season.

I can accept that I was overconfident in the chances for 45-50 last year but it's not like last year is locked in as what he "really" is either. Last season coming off a shoulder surgery he was 7th in the NHL in shots but 404th in shooting percentage (8.9%). I don't find it particularly convincing that the rational take is now to pencil him in for 300th-400th in the league in shooting percentage going forward.

 

[Habby4Life]

It doesn't matter.

When you're predicting what a player will do you look at past performance and scoring rates. Slafkovsky's never hit 60. Does that mean he won't do it this year?

Your 'lol' is not convincing. 48 in 82 is.

Again, you look at what a player has done and extrapolate from there.

No, the numbers came up and they were exactly what I told you. Then you went quiet. Now you're back with more 'lols'.

His percentage was a third of what it was at mid ice. The delta was 20 goals. If it wasn't his shot... then what was it?

Sorry bud, twist your numbers all you want. Right now he is a 20 goal scorer and will most likely crack 30 if he stays healthy. Shit, Slaf going from 50 to 60 that’s a reasonable prediction. 50 from a guy who has yet to hit 30 is pie in the sky.

I already told you what CC and MSL think the problem is but you know better. I’ll take the head coach of the Montreal Canadiens and the player himself assessment over yours everyday and twice on Sunday. For some reason I think they are a little more in touch with the situation than you.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't really understand the snark about the 48 in 82 thing. It's not like those were stats exclusively from games played in the central time zone between 70% and 90% humidity with the moon between 1/4 and 1/2 phase or something. It was 75% of Caufield's career GP at that point. He played 10 games as a rookie and then 20ish games under Ducharme while every single player on the team struggled to produce and then scored 48 actual real-life NHL goals in his subsequent 82 games played which was the remainder of 21-22 and his entire 22-23 season.

Well said.

And we can go beyond his NHL career. He's set scoring records in the minors and was considered a steal when drafted. The big fear was that his game wouldn't translate but that was quickly disproven as he took off under MSL. Yes, he sucked under DD but that's almost entirely due to usage.

Starting from MSL it's 82 games. A huge sample to look at. Nobody is cherrypicking from within those 82 either... it's 48 in 82.

I can accept that I was overconfident in the chances for 45-50 last year but it's not like last year is locked in as what he "really" is either. Last season coming off a shoulder surgery he was 7th in the NHL in shots but 404th in shooting percentage (8.9%). I don't find it particularly convincing that the rational take is now to pencil him in for 300th-400th in the league in shooting percentage going forward.

Pretty much everyone who said 40-50 all said it was contingent on health and his surgery. It's pretty clear from the numbers we saw that his shot was affected. His shots from mid ice were absolutely dismal. Apart from that he had a great year.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Sorry bud, twist your numbers all you want.

Twist what?

I've told you the whole time the issue was his shot from mid ice. You argued against it. You were proven wrong on this. His shot percentage dropped by two thirds from outside the blue paint. A delta of 20 goals. That's the difference between last season and is past performance. Everything else he did was exactly what you'd want.

Right now he is a 20 goal scorer and will most likely crack 30 if he stays healthy. Shit, Slaf going from 50 to 60 that’s a reasonable prediction. 50 from a guy who has yet to hit 30 is pie in the sky.

I already told you what CC and MSL think the problem is but you know better. I’ll stick with their assessment, thanks. I’m sure they are closer to the situation than you.

Going forward? Different conversation. Why? For the same reason we had high expectations last year - past performance.

We re-evaluate players as they go along. This is especially true of younger players. It's very clear that the surgery affected him. As such, we have to factor that in to any predictions going forward. The prognosis of a 100 percent recovery is three years. He's in year two. So it's reasonable to expect some improvement.

He's probably good for 35 goals this year.

 

[Next Best Thing]

I hope he continues to rack up shots as well. I’m still hopeful that he can return to what he was. But it might take another year.

Yeah I feel the same way. Just want to see him improve on last year, those be my only expectations of him this year.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yeah I feel the same way. Just want to see him improve on last year, those be my only expectations of him this year.

35-40 would be a nice improvement.

Again, it sucks that it was a shoulder injury. We'd have been so much better off if it was an ankle or something like that. f***ed up his bread and butter.

 

[Habby4Life]

Twist what?

I've told you the whole time the issue was his shot from mid ice. You argued against it. You were proven wrong on this. His shot percentage dropped by two thirds from outside the blue paint. A delta of 20 goals. That's the difference between last season and is past performance. Everything else he did was exactly what you'd want.

Going forward? Different conversation. Why? For the same reason we had high expectations last year - past performance.

We re-evaluate players as they go along. This is especially true of younger players. It's very clear that the surgery affected him. As such, we have to factor that in to any predictions going forward. The prognosis of a 100 percent recovery is three years. He's in year two. So it's reasonable to expect some improvement.

He's probably good for 35 goals this year.

Proven wrong, only in your head.

Just like I was proven wrong with my take on Roy or Laine. Depth guy and 2nd liner hot take went over well.

Like I said, I’ll stick with CC and MSL over rando hf guy.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Proven wrong, only in your head.

No.

Once again, go back and look at our conversation. I told you this pages ago. You didn't listen. I told you the numbers were posted last year.

They were then reposted by a poster here and confirmed exactly what I was telling you.

Like I said, I’ll stick with CC and MSL over rando hf guy.

It's not a rando HF guy... it's mathematics. His shot percentage dropped by two thirds from mid ice. That's the difference of twenty goals. It doesn't matter what they said. It doesn't matter what you or I say... the numbers show what happened here.

 

[Habby4Life]

No.

Once again, go back and look at our conversation. I told you this pages ago. You didn't listen. I told you the numbers were posted last year.

They were then reposted by a poster here and confirmed exactly what I was telling you.

It's not a rando HF guy... it's mathematics. His shot percentage dropped by two thirds from mid ice. That's the difference of twenty goals. It doesn't matter what they said. It doesn't matter what you or I say... the numbers show what happened here.

I don’t care about your numbers. His numbers showed he faired much better when shooting from closer in which is exactly what MSL and CC said.

I’ll take the coach and the players word about his shoulder health, the position quality of where he shots are coming from and what he needs to do to improve his goal scoring over yes, rando hf guy.

Sorry bud, but I’ll leave it at that.

Nothing you can say that will convince me otherwise.

 

[Skip Bayless]

P.K. is hilarious

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don’t care about your numbers.

They aren't 'my numbers'... and it doesn't matter if you care about them or not. They are what they are. You argued that it wasn't the case and it was.

His numbers showed he faired much better when shooting from closer in which is exactly what MSL and CC said.

Every player shoots better from in close. Every player wants to shoot from in close more. And he DID shoot in close more than he ever has. So that was great.

But not all of your shots are going to come from in close. The bulk will come from mid ice. And with a shot like Caufield's it should be no problem. Using the previous shooting percentage he would've gotten 32 goals from there instead of 12.

That is a massive number. It's the difference between merely a 'good' season and a great one.

I’ll take the coach and the players word about his shoulder health, the position quality of where he shots are coming from and what he needs to do to improve his goal scoring over yes, rando hf guy.

And again it doesn't matter what they said. They said he should shoot more from in close... okay cool. But that wasn't his problem. You covering your eyes to those numbers doesn't invalidate them.

Sorry bud, but I’ll leave it at that.

Nothing you can say that will convince me.

I don't have to convince you. You are simply incorrect. Whether you realize it or not is up to you.

 

[Habby4Life]

They aren't 'my numbers'... and it doesn't matter if you care about them or not. They are what they are. You argued that it wasn't the case and it was.

Every player shoots better from in close. Every player wants to shoot from in close more. And he DID shoot in close more than he ever has. So that was great.

But not all of your shots are going to come from in close. The bulk will come from mid ice. And with a shot like Caufield's it should be no problem. Using the previous shooting percentage he would've gotten 32 goals from there instead of 12.

That is a massive number. It's the difference between merely a 'good' season and a great one.

And again it doesn't matter what they said. They said he should shoot more from in close... okay cool. But that wasn't his problem. You covering your eyes to those numbers doesn't invalidate them.

I don't have to convince you. You are simply incorrect. Whether you realize it or not is up to you.

Hahahahaha!!!!!!!!

Sure Bud, must be nice to live in your own little fantasy island.

Just like I was with Laine being a depth guy or Roy being a 2nd liner. Those were doozies.

 

[rve24]

33+ this season

 

[vokiel]

Nah it ain't the year, same issue as last year, not enough distractions on the top 6. So I'm still thinking 25-30.

 

[FerrisRox]

Nothing you can say that will convince me otherwise.

You keep acting like you are disagreeing with their opinion, but you're actually disagreeing with simple facts.

You can announce you "don't care" about the numbers, but the numbers are the numbers. They aren't an opinion, a projection or a guess, they are the actual numbers.

The fact that you have decided you "don't care" about the numbers doesn't somehow invalidate them.

I'm not sure what you mean about being "convinced." If you want to dismiss facts because you "don't care" about them there really isn't much of conversation to have.

 

[CHfan1]

Another thing to watch is if Caufield can maintain or increase his assist total (including primary assists) from last season. Although his goal scoring wasn’t up to his standards from previous seasons he really increased his primary assist total. Prior to the 2023-24 season he had 15 primary assists in 123 games (2 in 46 games in the 2022-23 season). Last season he had 23 in 82 games.