Cole Caufield breaking out
- Thread starter amnesiac
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Lafleurs Guy
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- Jul 20, 2007
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And he won’t. He’s at 25 now and that won’t continue. He is way off from last year in terms of shots on goal. The Canadiens have sucked at generating offensive pressure. Past few games he’s finally getting more shots. Of he can keep that up he should get 40+ and maybe even 50.
Last year should’ve been a career year. 315 shots but couldn’t score for his life. Shoulder surgery seemed to have sucked the zap out of his shot. He’s able to score from further out once again.
- Apr 27, 2005
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He's probably not gonna keep up his low shooting number too. 2.6s/g vs 3.8s/g last year and 3.6 the year before. I don't think he get 50g this year but 40-45 is something that could happen
probably not, although he should be shooting more.... hes only on pace for 215, while last season he had 314
that said, I wouldnt bet on 50 this season
I have in fantasy because I figured based on his shot numbers last season he should get 40-50 this year but now his shots are way down which is hard to understand.
Lafleurs Guy
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- Jul 20, 2007
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I wouldn’t bet against it.
He should’ve had a career year last season and that shoulder got in the way. He should’ve had 50 last year. To put it in perspective the previous 82 games under MSL he’d shot at around 18 percent. At that number he’d have been at 56 goals. At 16 percent (very reasonable for someone of his talents) he’d have been at 50.
Is he going to shoot at 25 percent the rest of the way? No. But I think you’ll see a lot more shots than you’ve seen. He’s already starting to ramp up there. He’s playing really good hockey despite being on a pretty weak team.
The90
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- Feb 27, 2017
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As leaf fans, we’re told that pace means nothing lol having a good personal year though
HeadLiceHatty
Registered User
Wouldn’t shock me if he scores 50, saw him a few times this year, he has all the tendencies of an elite goal scorer.
Arthur Morgan
Registered User
pace only doesn't count when it goes against your argument or against your team, especially while speaking with a rival fanbase
now that it's on the other side it counts lol
Aggregating the previous 3 seasons, he's got 77 goals over 67 expected goals. Now, he's got 16 goals over 8.42 expected goals.
Adjusting 24 games over a 82-game season and assuming the expected goal generation remains constant, he would have 28.8 expected goals over the season.
Taking the remaining 20.4 expected goals and assuming he'll score on them with a similar ratio to the one he has over his career from the previous three season, he would end up with around 39 goals.
By saying you wouldn't bet against him scoring 50, you're expecting his expected goal generation this season to increase significantly, or you're expecting him to score at a much higher ratio in relation to the expected goals than he has in his career thus far.
But it just is rather unlikely. Even if he scores on his expected goals at the rate of Auston Matthews, he'll only end up with 46 goals. And how likely is that?
By the current information, I'd definitely bet against him reaching 50.
The reason pace doesn't count is because variance is expected to decrease as the sample size increases. This flattens the difference between the weakest and strongest performers. So, if you take the strongest performer and expect his rate to continue over the course of an entire season, it just is extremely unlikely, even if his advantage over the rest of the field remains identical.
Essentially, we're assuming that for the strongest performer, there is, in addition to skill, also some luck; meaning it's been a fortunate sampling session, and the actual mean value for the generator is lower.
I've noticed that "Pace" and "xGF" are equally misused to smudge facts, depending which context you wish to ignore.
Right now, the main fact is Caufield is tied for 3rd in goals-scored. The most reasonable predictions have him finishing with 40-45 goals, with the upward possibility of 50.
