CLUTCH Statistics for Auston Matthews

[Rants Mulliniks]

Is Auston Matthews a playoff performer or not? Here is the data using CLUTCH:

View attachment 493408

Matthews was evaluated based on goals, assists, points, faceoff winning %, and his Corsi For %. Thus, he was evaluated on every key facet of the game.

As we can see from the data above (CLUTCH figures below 1.000 in almost every category), Matthews has yet to prove that he's a playoff performer. His offensive production drops significantly in the playoffs most years.

The last performance tier/level for Matthews to obtain now is that of a superstar in the playoffs. The regular season numbers are fantastic, but he'll never be in the same conversation as other NHL legends until he can get it done in the playoffs.

Just as a heads up, you'll have to quantify what "getting it done in the playoffs " means. Most players see a decline in playoff versus regular season numbers.

 

[Confucius]

Just as a heads up, you'll have to quantify what "getting it done in the playoffs " means. Most players see a decline in playoff versus regular season numbers.

I thought scoring goes down in the playoffs. Afterall the bottom half of the league isn't playing. Would be wild if scoring increased while subtracting the worse 16 teams.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I thought scoring goes down in the playoffs. Afterall the bottom half of the league isn't playing. Would be wild if scoring increased while subtracting the worse 16 teams.

Indeed it does. For example, Yzerman is considered a great yet his playoff scoring reduction vs regular season is equal to Marner's.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

How do you determine the CLUTCH statistics?

You take the player's playoff performance and divide it by their regular season performance to see the clutch statistic.

Essentially, what the stat measures is whether the player plays better in the regular season or in the playoffs. It measures how clutch they are. Every player is compared to themselves, and the resulting number tells you what percentage of that player you got in the playoffs using their regular season as the baseline.

Example: GOALS

clutch_g = (playoff goals / playoff games played) / (regular season goals / regular season games played)


Example: CORSI FOR %

clutch_cf% = playoff cf% / regular season cf%


For statistics that are already percentages, the calculation is simple. For statistics that are running totals, we first turn them into percentages (rates).

For goals you can also go G/TOI instead of GP.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

I thought scoring goes down in the playoffs. Afterall the bottom half of the league isn't playing. Would be wild if scoring increased while subtracting the worse 16 teams.

Yeah good point. I haven't done enough analysis to know what a "good" or "bad" number is for clutch. The important things are:

1. Higher is better.
2. A value of 1.000 means regular season performance = playoff performance

So if production drops in the playoffs, players will strive to hit 1.000 in this stat. If production stays the same, then players will strive to exceed 1.000.

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

I'm surprised there are still so many active users here despite no leaf games. The vibe is gone but ya'll keeping the dream alive.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

So what I get from this is:
Matthews creates a bit and doesn’t give up a lot in clutch situations, however he struggles to finish
Marner can’t finish at all, but is still ok offensively and creates more now than his most dominant run in 2018. So a bit of unluckiness on his part there
Tavares is the “clutch” compared to these guys, but it isn’t very good.

They make sense as this mostly reminds me of the eye test. Marner created with passing, no one finished and he had 0 finish himself. Countless times Matthews or Hyman would either blow a chance or be taken out of the play and Marner couldn’t do anything. Matthews goal scoring has been super disappointing the last two runs, with 3 in 12 games, and his goal in Montreal came in one of the two big wins (4-0 or 5-1) so it wasn’t really clutch. Tavares in Columbus has stats that surprise me sort of, from my memory, Tavares might’ve been the most unclutch player I ever witnessed. He blew a whole empty net in game 5, but I suppose that game 4 comeback really boosts all their stats. And the 4 game 7 no-shows also hinder their stats


It’s pretty easy to see that they all have to be better, I’m not sure what an average or respectable clutch_pts is, but I don’t think less than 1 is good. All three have been no where near the level they can and should be at.

Agreed. The Leafs highest paid players have been more "ordinary" in the playoffs than extraordinary. If any one of those three guys takes over a series, the Leafs advance. The trouble is, not one of them has been dominant in the playoffs. It's like they go from being 1st line players to being secondary scoring players, and the old adage is that your best players need to be your best players if you want to win a Cup.

As some others have mentioned, if scoring drops all-around in the playoffs then players should probably strive to hit 1.000 in this statistic for ALL categories of performance (goals, assists, faceoffs, corsi, etc.). Tavares isn't far off. Matthews and Marner have some work to do.

 

[TheProspector]

Remember when Yzerman was a playoff bum? Remember when Datsyuk was a playoff bum? Remember when Ovechkin was a playoff bum? Remember when Stamkos was a playoff bum? Oh, even that McDavid guy is pretty much a playoff bust.

Relax. These things take time. Hopefully we're not San Jose.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Remember when Yzerman was a playoff bum? Remember when Datsyuk was a playoff bum? Remember when Ovechkin was a playoff bum? Remember when Stamkos was a playoff bum? Oh, even that McDavid guy is pretty much a playoff bust.

Relax. These things take time. Hopefully we're not San Jose.

Funny thing is - with Yzerman as the prime example - when he finally started being a guy you could win with, his points (generally) were on the decline because he was more focused on defense.

 

[Seras]

32 games

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

32 games

I don't understand your post.

 

[Confucius]

I don't understand your post.

small sample size...

 

[Aashir]

32 games

It’s only a small sample size cuz those players couldn’t get it done

 

[Confucius]

It’s only a small sample size cuz those players couldn’t get it done

Carolina, Tampa and Leafs the best 3 teams in hockey, stats don't lie.

 

[Aashir]

Carolina, Tampa and Leafs the best 3 teams in hockey, stats don't lie.

This year, yes Toronto has been amazing not even disputing that they have gotten amazing scoring from stars and depth, good all round defence and vezina level goaltending. Special teams are chilling and the teams record is good

I’m disputing the other guy saying “32 games” as if that invalidates these stats in this thread

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

small sample size...

True but that's all we get. Compared to sports like the NFL or MLB, it's a large playoff sample size.

 

[WillyC]

IMO, Clutch is when you bury the biggest goals when they’re needed most.

We need that from the Big 5 in this year’s post season… it’s Go Time.

 

[slozo]

Here you go:

I did the CLUTCH stats for Toronto's "Big 3" of Matthews, Marner, and Tavares. (They are time consuming to do so I omitted Nylander.)

View attachment 493513

The conclusion? None of Toronto's highest paid forwards perform as well in the playoffs as they do in the regular season.

Matthews experiences a drop in offensive production across the board but isn't a liability on faceoffs or defensive play.
Marner year-over-year can't score goals in the playoffs, although his playmaking is roughly on par with season performance. Faceoffs were ignored.
Tavares (New York Islanders data included of course) tends to decline somewhat all-around. He's the best of these three, but he's not clutch.

This pretty much reflects the eye test for me.

Matthews all around not good enough in playoffs.
Marner has flashes of brilliance, ok most times, and sometimes sucks.
Tavares is steady at an"ok" level but has never elevated his play in a discernible way.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

IMO, Clutch is when you bury the biggest goals when they’re needed most.

We need that from the Big 5 in this year’s post season… it’s Go Time.

And what time is more clutch than playoff time?

Assuming we can get to a playoff this year without covid ruining things again, I think these guys will go into the playoffs with a chip on their shoulder and do some serious damage.