Speculation: Chris Johnston "An atom bomb could drop"

[Leafs87]

The problem is that to make those changes to support players you need to let Marner walk. There's nothing else significant they have control over. After the way the fand treated the team in Game 7, they may not even have a say in that.

Yes to a degree. Although you do have the cap increase and Tavares ~5 mil difference. I personally feel like losing him for free makes us worse. Swapping a player like Marner for spare parts may change the culture if done right, but likely makes us worse. That’s all I’m saying. I would have traded Marner last year, but letting him walk for free is the wrong approach imo.

 

[LeafSteel]

This is my thought exactly. People think that by moving on from Marner we’ll be better. The free agency pool is very lacklustre after him and we have no assets for trades. The best course at this point may unfortunately be to run it back with a completely different bottom six. This is by no means ideal, and I would have absolutely traded Marner, but letting him walk for free is bad asset management imo and gets us in a worse position next year. The whole team sucked in games 5/7.

So you keep Marner and pay him $14m because we didn’t trade him when we should have?

No thank you.

 

[ToneDog]

Yes to a degree. Although you do have the cap increase and Tavares ~5 mil difference. I personally feel like losing him for free makes us worse. Swapping a player like Marner for spare parts may change the culture if done right, but likely makes us worse. That’s all I’m saying. I would have traded Marner last year, but letting him walk for free is the wrong approach imo.

How are you going to get better after you pay Marner $13.5m? Perhaps if the pipeline was overflowing, but after Cowan, it is dry and looks like it stay dry for the next 5 years.

 

[Leafs87]

So you keep Marner and pay him $14m because we didn’t trade him when we should have?

No thank you.

I think reasonably if they do the proper sit down, hash out the differences, the contract should be 12.5 for 8 years.

 

[Leafs87]

How are you going to get better after you pay Marner $13.5m? Perhaps if the pipeline was overflowing, but after Cowan, it is dry and looks like it stay dry for the next 5 years.

Alternatively how do you get better using only free agents even with Marners money? I’ve seen some simulators of the lineup and they look rough. I’d rather keep trying with this core and blow it up completely with trading Marner/Nylander and Matthews in 2027 if it doesn’t work. We’re committed to this core at this point and unable to to change course while creating a better team IMO.

 

[The Shadow]

Nobody can expect this player to play any different in the playoffs than he has already shown

If you want to win the Atlantic again you bring back Marner. If you want to win the cup you look elsewhere.

The team really is in a tough place. They don’t have anyone to replace his production, minimal good prospects coming up and there is a lack or pending UFAs.

 

[ToneDog]

Alternatively how do you get better using only free agents even with Marners money? I’ve seen some simulators of the lineup and they look rough. I’d rather keep trying with this core and blow it up completely with trading Marner/Nylander and Matthews in 2027 if it doesn’t work. We’re committed to this core at this point and unable to to change course while creating a better team IMO.

They have committed to this core for 9 years and all they have done is disappoint. They changed GMs, coaches, goalies, AGMs, ACs, forwards, Dmen, brought in vets, and players hungry to win a SC. They are the common denominator. They have been coddled to the extent that there needs to be a culture change. I'd rather risk taking a step back than losing in round 2 in a year. I am sure the braintrust has finally seen enough to realize this core will never win as a group.

 

[Leafs87]

They have committed to this core for 9 years and all they have done is disappoint. They changed GMs, coaches, goalies, AGMs, ACs, forwards, Dmen, brought in vets, and players hungry to win a SC. They are the common denominator. They have been coddled to the extent that there needs to be a culture change. I'd rather risk taking a step back than losing in round 2 in a year. I am sure the braintrust has finally seen enough to realize this core will never win as a group.

Absolutely your opinion is valid and I don’t disagree. I just don’t think we’ll get better with subtracting Marner. In an ideal world if we had the 1st, you clean house properly and get assets back instead of plugging holes and waiting for everyone to expire. I’m just saying at this point, run it back is the best option, then you can trade the corrupt when we conclude 2027 season and actually get assets back if fixing the bottom six doesn’t work. Ideally they would have dealt Marner last year or even 2 years ago.

 

[ToneDog]

Absolutely your opinion is valid and I don’t disagree. I just don’t think we’ll get better with subtracting Marner. In an ideal world if we had the 1st, you clean house properly and get assets back instead of plugging holes and waiting for everyone to expire. I’m just saying at this point, run it back is the best option, then you can trade the corrupt when we conclude 2027 season and actually get assets back if fixing the bottom six doesn’t work. Ideally they would have dealt Marner last year or even 2 years ago.

I'd be willing to listen if Marner took a team friendly deal and they had some flexibility to add but Marner has his head in the clouds if he thinks he is worth Draisaitl money. Somebody might pay him but the Leafs cannot afford to. Shouting at his team mates to wake the f*** up after playing like he did is the last I need to see from him. He is not a winner. Change does not guarantee the team is worse. No change guarantees they will not be better. I chose change.

 

[ULF_55]

I'd be willing to listen if Marner took a team friendly deal and they had some flexibility to add but Marner has his head in the clouds if he thinks he is worth Draisaitl money. Somebody might pay him but the Leafs cannot afford to. Shouting at his team mates to wake the f*** up after playing like he did is the last I need to see from him. He is not a winner. Change does not guarantee the team is worse. No change guarantees they will not be better. I chose change.

This is not a reflection on marner, but even at his current rate, how does that change how he and Matthews perform in the post-season?

Leafs need middle 6 improvements, and how does that happen without opening up Cap Space?

 

[kevsh]

Nobody can expect this play to play any different in the playoffs than he has already shown

If you want to win the Atlantic again you bring back Marner. If you want to win the cup you look elsewhere.

The team really is in a tough place. They don’t have anyone to replace his production, minimal good prospects coming up and there is a lack or pending UFAs.

This is really the problem Treliving faces.

He's trying to build a Cup winner but objectively, it's really hard to see that if you let a talent like Marner walk. He's guaranteed going to be complete crap again in the post-season, but he's a guy you need just to get you there.

Same goes with all the core. They're not going to win any Cups, but you need those guys to get you to the dance. And unless you can trade them for somewhat equal or better assets, then letting them walk for nothing doesn't help Toronto at all.

(Personally, I'd let Mitch and JT walk and take my chances on bringing in signing some heart & soul depth guys. Put Knies & one of them on AM's wing and just grind away goals. Put 2 more with Willie and do the same.)

 

[MajorLeaf]

How many years do the Leafs need to change the defence, goaltending and bottom 6 to become a more complete team?

This year, the Leafs finally got the supporting cast to take on the Panthers and even though they went toe to toe with the Stanley Cup Champions it wasn’t good enough.

Funny enough the bottom 6, defence and goaltending is what helped the team go 7 games.

The core 5 is what hindered the team yet again from winning with hardly any scoring from them in the series. When Benoit gets a game winner there are big problems with this team.

The Leafs need to find playoff performers that can score in the top six. Yes it would be nice to have the toughness as well, but speed and scoring is what is required and moving on from Marner who has shown the inability to score or even set up goals in the playoffs is the right step.

Moving on from Reilly who can’t effectively quarterback the power play needs to go. Tavares can go to as he can’t score either.

The team needs a major change in the top six to breakthrough finally.

 

[Ports]

Bob wasn’t his usual best but guess what - our best goalie was punched in the head and knocked out

The team in my opinion always has more confidence when Stolarz is in net vs Woll.

With Stolly I think they win. That’s how close they are

I think they might have won game three with Stolarz in net but it’s hard to know. It seems when Florida came to play, the Leafs had no answers. Those game 5 and 7 losses at home are a symptom of something bigger.

 

[ULF_55]

This is really the problem Treliving faces.

He's trying to build a Cup winner but objectively, it's really hard to see that if you let a talent like Marner walk. He's guaranteed going to be complete crap again in the post-season, but he's a guy you need just to get you there.

Same goes with all the core. They're not going to win any Cups, but you need those guys to get you to the dance. And unless you can trade them for somewhat equal or better assets, then letting them walk for nothing doesn't help Toronto at all.

(Personally, I'd let Mitch and JT walk and take my chances on bringing in signing some heart & soul depth guys. Put Knies & one of them on AM's wing and just grind away goals. Put 2 more with Willie and do the same.)

Of course, you mean how do you make the playoffs without enough talent to get you there!

It is a fact that of every team that made the playoffs, other than the Leafs, didn't have marner.

So a redistribution of the $22 million for talent over the top 3 lines is an option.

Only 5 teams had 100 point players, but 16 made the playoffs.

Dallas and Florida didn't have anyone close to 90 points, let alone 100.

So, they definitely, need talent to make the playoffs, but that talent doesn't have to be marner/Matthews/Nylander/Tavares/... .

Your suggestion of "heart & soul" players is right on, but I disagree on the "depth" criteria.

 

[Ports]

This means absolutely nothing. Lets look back historically:

Steve Yzerman - GP 196 PTS 184
Brendan Shannahan - GP 184 PTS 134
Pavel Datsyuk - GP 158 PTS 107

Alex Ovechkin GP 161 PTS 147

Ron Francis GP 171 PTS 143

Joe Thornton GP 187 PTS 134

Henri Richard GP 180 PTS 129

Patrice Bergeron GP 170 PTS 128

Luc Robitaille GP 161 PTS 126

Dave Andrychuk GP 162 PTS 98

Red Kelly GP 168 PTS 92

And the list can go on and on. In the playoffs you can have many players that outright lead their teams in scoring if not the league in playoff scoring. It doesnt mean they win the cup or are successful as a team in the playoffs. How many Cups has Gretzky lost??? 2 of 6, but lead playoffs in scoring all 6. Didn't McDavid just do that again last season? Lead playoffs in scoring but lose to Florida!!!

Yes it is nice to score at your point a game pace in the playoffs. But lots of hall of famers listed above and there are more.... didnt duplicate the regular season form in the playoffs. But they are still hall of famers and still won cups with their teams. Its a team game. A game of opportunity. A game of bounces and deflections or blocks. Any team can win a cup with the right system and mentality without scoring in bunches. New Jersey has proven this, Boston has as well. Crap Florida and Vegas have. Its not about scoring. Get over it people.

Of course it’s about scoring. It’s about scoring in the biggest games which they don’t do. The numbers are staggering. Even the series against the Panthers they only scored four goals in the last four games. And the core five only scored one of them on a wiff by Bob. How many goals have Matthews, Marner and Tavares scored in the six game sevens they’ve played in ? It’s the problem.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

To me da big 3 offseason moves for Tre are 1. to trade Rielly for a scoring winger with size = CAP .. 2. use da space from marner leaving to get a solid 2C like Bennett and use rest of space to get another D lower CAP who can move puck and play defense .. 3. if JT resigns at 5m or below as a 3C/LW then use CAP savings to go after another big fast winger who can create disturbances on forecheck like a Marchment

We need to have 3 lines who can all skate/forecheck come playoffs .. and we need a little more on D .. we are not that far away folks

 

[Maple Leaf]

To me da big 3 offseason moves for Tre are 1. to trade Rielly for a scoring winger with size = CAP .. 2. use da space from marner leaving to get a solid 2C like Bennett and use rest of space to get another D lower CAP who can move puck and play defense .. 3. if JT resigns at 5m or below as a 3C/LW then use CAP savings to go after another big fast winger who can create disturbances on forecheck like a Marchment

We need to have 3 lines who can all skate/forecheck come playoffs .. and we need a little more on D .. we are not that far away folks

where da offense comin from

 

[ULF_55]

To me da big 3 offseason moves for Tre are 1. to trade Rielly for a scoring winger with size = CAP .. 2. use da space from marner leaving to get a solid 2C like Bennett and use rest of space to get another D lower CAP who can move puck and play defense .. 3. if JT resigns at 5m or below as a 3C/LW then use CAP savings to go after another big fast winger who can create disturbances on forecheck like a Marchment

We need to have 3 lines who can all skate/forecheck come playoffs .. and we need a little more on D .. we are not that far away folks

Knies - Matthews - ?
? - ? - Nylander
...

Treliving facing the biggest challenge of his GM career?

 

[colchar]

I think reasonably if they do the proper sit down, hash out the differences, the contract should be 12.5 for 8 years.

Yeah, because it is just that easy eh?

 

[colchar]

Alternatively how do you get better using only free agents even with Marners money?

What a ridiculous thing to say.

I’ve seen some simulators of the lineup and they look rough.

Oh sweet Jebus. Simulators? Let's deal with reality here, not NHL '25 on your Playstation.

I’d rather keep trying with this core

Yeah, because that has worked so well thus far.

and blow it up completely with trading Marner/Nylander and Matthews in 2027 if it doesn’t work.

So you want them to spin their wheels for another coupe of seasons? Brilliant f**king plan.

We’re committed to this core at this point

No, they are not. Two of them are about to be free agents.

and unable to to change course while creating a better team IMO.

Your opinion is wrong.

 

[Ports]

When I look at the team and the potential players that need to go. Here are my final thoughts:

Matthews -(Stay)

He passed the eye test for me. Obviously hurt this year. Franchise centre and a no trade. I personally and have always believed that pairing MnM together was always a mistake. Matthews needs to play with heavier players. Aside from puck luck and maybe 2/3 plays. I thought Matthews was decent this playoff. I hope he heals up. It’s also a trade you are unlikely to win.

Marner -(Let walk)

From the TO area, but can’t handle the market. Too perimeter, needs time and space to be effective, and no signs of any physicality. Mentally fragile. Amazing regular season player who helps you get into the dance. NOT worth the ask and helps reset forward depth.

Nylander (Stay)

Can’t change everything. Not the time to visit Nylander. Great player, with plenty of warts.

JT (Sign)

I just don’t see how we get a 2C and 3C in this UFA class. I do hope management squeezes his head and wallet. I also believe that he CANNOT be your 2C on a cup team. I also hate Willy stuck on his line. He has to be a 3C or middle six LW. Target contract is realistically 5.5-6 million AAV.

Kampf (Trade)

Not a Chief player. Gotta go. Slide Laughton into 4C. Lack of physicality.

Jarnkrok (Trade/Release)

Brings little to nothing, need to churn the bottom of the roster. Again, lack of physicality.

Rielly (Convince to waive NMC -trade)

It’s time. I don’t think he has negative trade value, but the return will not be great. We need a proper puck moving PP QB. Prone to terrible pinches and positional play. Cap dollars are better spent elsewhere.

Lorentz/Holmberg (Re sign)

Bring back on reasonable deals

Robertson (RFA - Trade)

Too light in the pants. On his ass too much. Need more than just “he sure does try” Let him go and grab a pick.

I won’t at this time project replacements, but with the above changes this what the roster would look like.

Knies Matthews Domi
McMann 2C Nylander
3LW Tavares Cowan (I give him a shot)
Lorentz Laughton Holmberg

McCabe Tanev
OEL 2RD
Benoit Carlo
Myers

Targets:
2nd line Centre
Middle Pair RW or LW ( Could move Domi)
Middle pair RD.

As July 1 gets closer, I will share thoughts on potential targets.

Delete

Knies - Matthews - ?
? - ? - Nylander
...

Treliving facing the biggest challenge of his GM career?

I would put Domi on the Matthews line (they had good chemistry at the end of last season when Marner was hurt) and sign a second line centre like Bennett or Brock Nelson to play with Nylander and McMann.

 

[Ports]

When I look at the team and the potential players that need to go. Here are my final thoughts:

Matthews -(Stay)

He passed the eye test for me. Obviously hurt this year. Franchise centre and a no trade. I personally and have always believed that pairing MnM together was always a mistake. Matthews needs to play with heavier players. Aside from puck luck and maybe 2/3 plays. I thought Matthews was decent this playoff. I hope he heals up. It’s also a trade you are unlikely to win.

Marner -(Let walk)

From the TO area, but can’t handle the market. Too perimeter, needs time and space to be effective, and no signs of any physicality. Mentally fragile. Amazing regular season player who helps you get into the dance. NOT worth the ask and helps reset forward depth.

Nylander (Stay)

Can’t change everything. Not the time to visit Nylander. Great player, with plenty of warts.

JT (Sign)

I just don’t see how we get a 2C and 3C in this UFA class. I do hope management squeezes his head and wallet. I also believe that he CANNOT be your 2C on a cup team. I also hate Willy stuck on his line. He has to be a 3C or middle six LW. Target contract is realistically 5.5-6 million AAV.

Kampf (Trade)

Not a Chief player. Gotta go. Slide Laughton into 4C. Lack of physicality.

Jarnkrok (Trade/Release)

Brings little to nothing, need to churn the bottom of the roster. Again, lack of physicality.

Rielly (Convince to waive NMC -trade)

It’s time. I don’t think he has negative trade value, but the return will not be great. We need a proper puck moving PP QB. Prone to terrible pinches and positional play. Cap dollars are better spent elsewhere.

Lorentz/Holmberg (Re sign)

Bring back on reasonable deals

Robertson (RFA - Trade)

Too light in the pants. On his ass too much. Need more than just “he sure does try” Let him go and grab a pick.

I won’t at this time project replacements, but with the above changes this what the roster would look like.

Knies Matthews Domi
McMann 2C Nylander
3LW Tavares Cowan (I give him a shot)
Lorentz Laughton Holmberg

McCabe Tanev
OEL 2RD
Benoit Carlo
Myers

Targets:
2nd line Centre
Middle Pair RW or LW ( Could move Domi)
Middle pair RD.

As July 1 gets closer, I will share thoughts on potential targets.

I like most of your ideas but they shouldn’t pay a 3C over $5M. Especially a 35 year old who’s too slow to be effective against fast teams in the playoffs. They don’t need 30+ goals with a lot of them on the PP out of that position. Lundell had a career high of 17 goals this season for Florida and should be the type of player the Leafs look for to fill that position. Tavares helps them get into the playoffs but doesn’t help them enough once they get there. They need more speed and harder to play against out of their third line. I don’t love Holmberg either. I think they can get more grit on the trade front or via free agency for $1M. Otherwise, I agree with your other points and lineup recommendations.

 

[Trapper]

I think reasonably if they do the proper sit down, hash out the differences, the contract should be 12.5 for 8 years.

I am 100 % prepared and don’t care if he walks.
That being said, 12 x 8 (not a penny more than Rantanen) with a NMC for the fist 4 years (so he knows he won’t be traded for the first 4) that kicks into a limited 10 team NTC for the final 4 years.
Take it or leave it.

 

[Ports]

I am 100 % prepared and don’t care if he walks.
That being said, 12 x 8 (not a penny more than Rantanen) with a NMC for the fist 4 years (so he knows he won’t be traded for the first 4) that kicks into a limited 10 team NTC for the final 4 years.
Take it or leave it.

Leave it. It’s not happening and thankfully he’ll take more somewhere else.

 

[Trapper]

Leave it. It’s not happening and thankfully he’ll take more somewhere else.

Perfect. I do enough so the Toronto fans know I offered 12 x 8 so he can leave for more $$$$. Win-win.