Speculation: Chris Johnston "An atom bomb could drop"

[IPS]

This might be an unpopular opinion. Hell, it’s an unpopular opinion to myself. Just looking at it from a pure asset management perspective, wouldn’t it make more sense to try and trade Willy and keep Marner? Something like Konecny and Bennett in, Willy and Tavares out. Just spitballing.

'Always loved my time here, I’ve loved being here,' Marner said. 'Like I said to you guys the other night, I've been so grateful.'

Does this sound like a kid who's coming back to you?

 

[rumman]

Matthews isn't going to return Celebrini but there is pretty much 0 reason to believe Celebrini will be a better player for peak/prime/career than Matthews.

He may be a better playoff guy, but we wont really see that for a few years.

Matthews as disappointing as he was this year was still around top 10 in ppg.

Playoffs wise he played bad but produced similar to Barkov.

The leafs issues are too much AAV to guys who produce like good player not elite players cone playoffs. If the core 5 guys made 12-15M less overall we could add a Seth Jones + Marchand + Bennett type playoff players to our roster to support them come playoffs.

You can win a cup with 4 guys giving 70ish pts per 82. But those 4 guys can't be making so much that we can't add another 3 guys giving 60-70 pt per 82 play in the playoffs for 4-5M behind them

Not when it matters……..

 

[banks]

I argued for this team, and for these players, for so long. No more. I don't believe in a single one of them anymore.

Burn this garbage roster to the ground. Let Mitch and Tavares both walk. Buy out Rielly. Buy out Domi. I'm fine if they trade Matthews and Nylander. Go for it. Forget this era ever existed. It's embarrassing.

Keep Knies and the goalies. Everyone else can and should go.

 

[rumman]

If the core 4 can’t get it done, who believes that Matthews/Nylander are going to power you through 4 rounds like McD and Drai?

They won’t…….

 

[ACC1224]

No - I meant him wanting the huge salary - not wanting to purposefully enrage fans.

That makes more sense.
Not sure what he's asking but I imagine it's what a player of his stature would command.

 

[banks]

'Always loved my time here, I’ve loved being here,' Marner said. 'Like I said to you guys the other night, I've been so grateful.'

Does this sound like a kid who's coming back to you?

Its past tense. He knows he's leaving. He can't handle the expectations and scrutiny. No surprise that a player who doesn't like the heat is fleeing the kitchen.

Marner is a choker and a loser. He'll get h8s payday somewhere that doesn't mind losing. Marner can be the new face of the Utah whatevers, while they make a culture of missing the playoffs.

 

[rumman]

Do you have a maximum salary for Marner in the event he wants to go but the Leafs want to keep him?

A million less than whatever Bennett signs for, and limited trade clause…….

 

[hamzarocks]

The reality is the clock will strike midnight sooner than later. Tanev is going to be what 36? He takes so much abuse he straight up eventually won't be able to stay healthy when it counts for us. OEL same story. Rielly has been in decline for a few seasons now. We have no prospects coming on D or F that make a big difference.

IDK. They need to attempt what Washington did and try to bring in younger players who didn't workout elsewhere and hope our team can reform them. The defense needs the average age lowered by 5 years if possible. Forwards we need guys who can actually crash and bang on the forecheck in the top 9 who can also put a puck in the net. Only guys we had that can do that are Knies and Patches who is retiring

Rielly swap for a younger less proven guy would make the defense look better

I'm not sure who would be a decent target.

But Rielly for a 24/25 year old D who is a bottom pairing guy at the moment but has upside (Devon Toews type acqusition or VGK Nate Schmidt) and makes 3-4M.

It would need to be to a team either contending, or a team wanting to jump a tier and become a contender.

We could also upgrade on Carlo but its unrealistic unfortunately. He's a good player but redundant a bit with Benoit and McCabe

We need to get creative and find under utilized guys who can break out.

Weegar, forsling, Montour all blossomed for FLO as low depth players into top pairing guys

 

[HockeyVirus]

Rielly swap for a younger less proven guy would make the defense look better

I'm not sure who would be a decent target.

But Rielly for a 24/25 year old D who is a bottom pairing guy at the moment but has upside (Devon Toews type acqusition or VGK Nate Schmidt) and makes 3-4M.

It would need to be to a team either contending, or a team wanting to jump a tier and become a contender.

We could also upgrade on Carlo but its unrealistic unfortunately. He's a good player but redundant a bit with Benoit and McCabe

We need to get creative and find under utilized guys who can break out.

Weegar, forsling, Montour all blossomed for FLO as low depth players into top pairing guys

Just reading on the mainboards the Sabres will try and move Byram. He is the perfect Rielly replacement being 6 years younger and actually able to produce offense and run a PP.

 

[namttebih]

'Always loved my time here, I’ve loved being here,' Marner said. 'Like I said to you guys the other night, I've been so grateful.'

Does this sound like a kid who's coming back to you?

I totally agree that it’s looking inevitable at this point. I don’t think that it’s completely a done deal either. Trust me, I’m in the let Mitch walk camp concerning team culture. Just thinking from an asset management perspective. If you match the best offer and add the 8th year with a limited no trade. Keeps the door open for a future trade if things go sour. He’s still going to notch 100 points and a lock for a top 6 team Canada role. The teams vying for him in FA will still exist 6 months, a year, two years down the road.

 

[sunstersun]

Berube, Shan and Brad should go. Full clean house imo.

I was kinda up on Brad, but then he chucked 3 firsts for garbage players at the deadline.

 

[Torontonian]

I can't imagine them trading Matthews. This team would be stupid to trade their 1C and the most important position on any team.

As for the atomic bomb part, could see them completely cleaning house on the front office, from President to GM to Asst GM etc, I don't think Treliving deserves it though, along with Marner and Tavares walking.. That would be quite a different team and front office if that were to happen.

 

[ToneDog]

This might be an unpopular opinion. Hell, it’s an unpopular opinion to myself. Just looking at it from a pure asset management perspective, wouldn’t it make more sense to try and trade Willy and keep Marner? Something like Konecny and Bennett in, Willy and Tavares out. Just spitballing.

Who's going to make up the 90+ goals? I get not wanting to lose an asset for nothing but paying Marner what he thinks he is worth is not a solution. Not to mention he is a big part of the coddle culture Shanny built and he's a whining bitch.

 

[Torontonian]

Do you have a maximum salary for Marner in the event he wants to go but the Leafs want to keep him?

I'd imagine if he was willing to take 12.75m, a 1.75m raise from now, for a long term deal, Toronto would keep him.

Honestly, I don't think it's Toronto wanting to break up, I think Marner is the one ready to end the relationship.

 

[ToneDog]

I can't imagine them trading Matthews. This team would be stupid to trade their 1C and the most important position on any team.

As for the atomic bomb part, could see them completely cleaning house on the front office, from President to GM to Asst GM etc, I don't think Treliving deserves it though, along with Marner and Tavares walking.. That would be quite a different team and front office if that were to happen.

If they know he has a chronic injury, it would be stupid to keep him and his $13.25m cap hit and watch him walk for nothing in 3 years. It is better to dump an asset a day early than a day late. See Mitch Marner.

 

[AllHeartNoSkill]

If they know he has a chronic injury, it would be stupid to keep him and his $13.25m cap hit and watch him walk for nothing in 3 years. It is better to dump an asset a day early than a day late. See Mitch Marner.

I’m inclined to agree with this. If there’s reason to believe he’s going to be Nathan Horton in a few years, maybe moving on now is the best bet.

Hayes pointed it out; we’re supposed to believe that he’ll be 100% in 4 months…. Yet they couldn’t rest him during the season to make him 100% for the playoffs?

 

[The Masters]

IMO quiet is good. Usually there would be leaks prepping fans
Last year it was quiet until Keefe got the axe.
I expect the same for Shanny. Should be first domino here.

 

[MajorLeaf]

No wonder O'Reilly got out of here. Probably signed in Nashville just to detox along the strip's honkeytonks where no murses can be found.

Murses…..this is gold I love it.

 

[Torontonian]

If they know he has a chronic injury, it would be stupid to keep him and his $13.25m cap hit and watch him walk for nothing in 3 years. It is better to dump an asset a day early than a day late. See Mitch Marner.

Nobody knows anything from a fan perspective. The way he's talking, it's could be one of those injuries that just needs time to heal to 100% and it's back to normal. Or very well could be chronic, even if it is, they just need to manage it better, instead of him going to play in a highly competitive tournament, have him sit out and rest.

Way bigger difference then losing Matthews then Marner.

 

[stealth1]

lol now you're making things up, Yzerman, backstrom, Ovechkin all saw considerable drop offs in playoff scoring compared to regular scoring on many occasions.

The drop in core four scoring from regular season to playoffs

Posting this fully in part to sharpen it.

Difference between reg season points per game and playoffs points per game from the core five between 2016 and now:

Matthews -0.28

Marner -0.23

Nylander -0.07

Tavares -0.32

**What does this mean exactly?**

-0.1 is very typical

-0.2 is underwhelming

-0.3 is historically bad

90% of all NHL players ever are -0.1

Many notable NHLers are at -0.2 like:

Mario Lemieux, Yzerman, Jagr, Lafontaine, Gartner, Joe Mullen, Nieuwendyk, Shanahan funny enough, Datsyuk, Lanny McDonald, Joe Thornton

Some notable NHLers at -0.3 or more are:

Dionne, Robitaille, likely some more

(inherently factoring in age decline all told)

Seems perfectly fitting given that the massive pressure they're facing, but maybe other factors also. Crumbling under expectations. Also worth mentioning they've faced better goalies than most playoff teams do so far, a significant element.

Holtby, Rask, KORPISALO ON STEROIDS, Price, Vasilevskiy, Swaymark, Bobrovsky

So. Yeah. A fascinating situation.

Not making it up at all.

 

[ToneDog]

Nobody knows anything from a fan perspective. The way he's talking, it's could be one of those injuries that just needs time to heal to 100% and it's back to normal. Or very well could be chronic, even if it is, they just need to manage it better, instead of him going to play in a highly competitive tournament, have him sit out and rest.

Way bigger difference then losing Matthews then Marner.

Agree. If Matthews injury is not chronic and he just needs to rest it, he is the one you build around. You can carry one soft, defensive liability like Willie if you surround them with players like Bennett, Tkachuk, Wilson. Another small soft winger and a declining Tavares and little production from your bottom 6 won't cut it and it has been proven for almost a decade.

 

[ToneDog]

I'd imagine if he was willing to take 12.75m, a 1.75m raise from now, for a long term deal, Toronto would keep him.

Honestly, I don't think it's Toronto wanting to break up, I think Marner is the one ready to end the relationship.

If he wanted to stay, he should have taken the Willie deal or less and bought some goodwill from the fanbase. Instead he was not willing to negotiate, refused to waive which cost us Rantanen, wants Draisaitl money and soiled his pants again in round #2. Add that the relationship between Marner and the Leafs has been fractured and I'd say, Marner is done here.

 

[hamzarocks]

Just reading on the mainboards the Sabres will try and move Byram. He is the perfect Rielly replacement being 6 years younger and actually able to produce offense and run a PP.

Yeah its a great fit for us but I think the Sabres would pass on it.

1) Value Byrams worth quite a bit more than Rielly just due to age, and upside. So they will want a premium young player who can help them grow back in a 1 for 1. I think the ask would be Knies from them which as of today we definitely pass on.

2) Sabres dont really need picks or prospects. We can't deal Rielly somehow for a 1st + and then deal 1st + 2nd + for Byram as it just doesn't fit what the Sabres need.

Rielly last year would have had the value to bring back Byram but he had a bad year this season and cost us in game 7 of R2 where a lot more eyes were on him.

We may need to aim lower and target guys less proven but with still decent upside

 

[The Masters]

cry me a river jonas

 

[namttebih]

Who's going to make up the 90+ goals? I get not wanting to lose an asset for nothing but paying Marner what he thinks he is worth is not a solution. Not to mention he is a big part of the coddle culture Shanny built and he's a whining bitch.

I’m not sure where you’re getting 90+, JT and WN combined for 83. I have a hard time seeing them reaching those totals again next year - especially JT. Semantics aside, I don’t think that it would be unreasonable to think that Bennett and Konecny could combine for 55-60 with the quality of linemates. Knies will probably continue to grow, and if Matthews isn’t back to 50+ we have bigger problems.