Cholowski's Ceiling

[Shaman464]

How bad did he think Cholowski was if a fantastic prospect tournament where he was notably better than anything Pronman remembered seeing gets him to... yeah, he could stick as a bottom pair guy.

A fantastic prospect tournament in his D+2 year. Its not like he's fresh off the draft. Cholo is 20 years old making him an elder statesmen in prospect tourneys.

For these kind of tournaments I am more interested in who did poorly than who did well. I expect all 1st rounders to look good, and by their second and third times through, great. I only take notice when they don't.

 

[ChadS]

"I could see him panning out as a 4-5 defenseman in the NHL."

I take that kind of as, "he's very likely a 4-5 defenseman in the NHL". Nothing about a ceiling etc.

I think it's fine not to project a guy with Cholowski's resume (no pro or major international games, 1 very good junior season) to be a likely top pairing D. Personally I'd rank him higher than 4-5 but the difference is minimal and also depends highly on the team he's on.

 

[Claypool]

Um, his ceiling is very high.

 

[Pavels Dog]

A fantastic prospect tournament in his D+2 year. Its not like he's fresh off the draft. Cholo is 20 years old making him an elder statesmen in prospect tourneys.

For these kind of tournaments I am more interested in who did poorly than who did well. I expect all 1st rounders to look good, and by their second and third times through, great. I only take notice when they don't.

While he’s a little older than some, there’s also plenty older and more pro-experienced than him and Cholo was kinda late in his physical maturation.

 

[Shaman464]

While he’s a little older than some, there’s also plenty older and more pro-experienced than him and Cholo was kinda late in his physical maturation.

And most are D+0 or D+1. And those who aren't either are late bloomers or career AHL/ECHL. Cholo had a very good tourney, but context matters, he's still one of the oldest there, and he's still entering his third season post draft, as a first round pick. My expectations are that he will have a very good tourney. If he had a bad one against kids and scrubs, it would be a lot more telling.

 

[Shaman464]

Um, his ceiling is very high.

No it's not. His ceiling has always been put in the good second pairing guy range. That hasn't changed. Pronman seems to be talking about the most likely scenario, not his ceiling anyway, which he's spot on, likely a #4-5 PMD that plays a ton of PP time as a PPQB.

 

[opivy]

He was top D at St Cloud, at least he had the most minutes when I watched them play here at DU. He was clearly the best skater on St Cloud team, maybe not best player, but his skating and defensive spacing was great.

 

[Pavels Dog]

And most are D+0 or D+1. And those who aren't either are late bloomers or career AHL/ECHL. Cholo had a very good tourney, but context matters, he's still one of the oldest there, and he's still entering his third season post draft, as a first round pick. My expectations are that he will have a very good tourney. If he had a bad one against kids and scrubs, it would be a lot more telling.

I forget who said it from the Wings but they view competition as higher than WJC. There are many top prospects, many with pro experience. Yeah he should be good there, but there's lots of room below the level Cholowski has played at. He was imo, the best player at development camp. Now, imo, the best player at Traverse. These are good signs.

 

[Ezekial]

No it's not. His ceiling has always been put in the good second pairing guy range. That hasn't changed. Pronman seems to be talking about the most likely scenario, not his ceiling anyway, which he's spot on, likely a #4-5 PMD that plays a ton of PP time as a PPQB.

See this is why ceilings are stupid.

You don't get to decide what he is at his best yet. None of us know what his ceiling is. If a player has ever surpassed their "ceiling" it obviously wasn't their ceiling.

You have an opinion and you're using projections to fit it.

 

[Frk It]

Ceilings are especially dumb for players like Cholowski. It's one thing if a player has some glaring flaws. Cholowski has all the tools you could ask for. The defining flaw for him has been his size/strength. That doesn't mean he has unlimited potential, but bottom 3D are essentially guys that have a big element missing. Either they suck at D and need to be sheltered, or they have zero offensive ability, or they are poor skaters, or they can only skate (Jensen). No reason Cholo's ceiling isn't at least at a Dekeyser 2.0 level.

Not sure about a glaring flaw, but his shot is pretty meh compared to the rest of his game.

The kid has like ~20 lbs on Dekeyser already, so I am hoping he will be more effective defensively.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Not sure about a glaring flaw, but his shot is pretty meh compared to the rest of his game.

The kid has like 20+ lbs on Dekeyser already, so I am hoping he will be more effective defensively.

I would probably say that's his biggest visible fault right now. His wristshot seems fine, the slapper could use some more mustard.

 

[Frk It]

I would probably say that's his biggest visible fault right now. His wristshot seems fine, the slapper could use some more mustard.

Hronek has the big shot, that’s kind of why I want them to play together. Their skills should complement each other really well.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I am also concerned with his upside, to be honest, he seems like a jack of all trades defenseman who isn't particularly elite at anything. Screams mid pairing guy to me.

 

[TheMule93]

I am also concerned with his upside, to be honest, he seems like a jack of all trades defenseman who isn't particularly elite at anything. Screams mid pairing guy to me.

Same. I dont see high end puck skills in him, dunno if he'll ever be a top pairing guy. Hronek has elite skills but will he ever be sound defensively, or will he end up as an offensive specialist? The latter seems likely

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Same. I dont see high end puck skills in him, dunno if he'll ever be a top pairing guy. Hronek has elite skills but will he ever be sound defensively, or will he end up as an offensive specialist? The latter seems likely

Plenty of defensemen thrive in this league without strong defensive games, if he's SO good offensively, it won't matter that much, ultimately.

 

[datsyukfan]

Plenty of defensemen thrive in this league without strong defensive games, if he's SO good offensively, it won't matter that much, ultimately.

This. Too many people put stock in being good defensive d-man. Usually when a guy is a good defensive d-man it is for a reason.... cause he's always playing in his own end. Best d-men are the one's that rarely play in the d-zone

 

[Frk It]

I am also concerned with his upside, to be honest, he seems like a jack of all trades defenseman who isn't particularly elite at anything. Screams mid pairing guy to me.

His skating is pretty high end. It should help him transition the puck up ice and also help him a lot defensively.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

His skating is pretty high end. It should help him transition the puck up ice and also help him a lot defensively.

True, that was ultimately what held XO back, I'm still not sure he has the playmaking or shooting that it takes to play on the top pair though, which is fine, I never expected him to be a top pairing guy.

 

[lomekian]

If you look at Cholowski's career as a whole, why should he be regarded as a "minimum top-4 guy"?

2015-2016 - Plays in BCHL (lower level junior league than WHL), drafted #20
2016-2017 - Plays in college, not good enough to get significant minutes or playing time.
2017-2018 - Plays in WHL as a 19-20 year old, has a good but not fantastic season and a meh playoff run.
September 7-10, 2018 - Has a great prospect tournament.

People always put way too much stock in these tournaments.

Bar the fact that his WHL season was excellent and a lot better at the comparative stage than other top defencemen who played 2 years in the CHL, I agree. I think you are underplaying his WHL season a bit. Not world beating, but deffo one of the top defencemen in junior.

 

[lomekian]

I see Cholowski's future as a 3-4 guy who can fill in on the top pair on a really weak defence or could drop to a 5 on a stellar defence. His alround game is very solid, and his on-ice intelligence and composure are excellent, but he has no absolutely top level facets to his game. Were he to get more physical, an even better skater or develop a shot as good as the rest of his PP game, he could yet become a top pairing guy, but none of these things seem likely to me at this stage. Chances are he'll be better than Kindl & Smith though...

 

[Pavels Dog]

I am also concerned with his upside, to be honest, he seems like a jack of all trades defenseman who isn't particularly elite at anything. Screams mid pairing guy to me.

Hockey IQ.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

People may view this as an insult, but when I watch him play, the player he reminds me of is Jay Bouwmeester (absoloute top end potential).

Edit: I meant in playing style. I see him as a #3 who plays similarly

 

[Heaton]

People may view this as an insult, but when I watch him play, the player he reminds me of is Jay Bouwmeester

Bouwmeester was a top defenseman for a long time and rarely missed a game. He's not what the Wings would need to get over the hump, but that would be a great career for Cholo.

I'm skeptical either Cholo or Hronek end up being franchise changing type of players (not necessarily franchise players, but changing the direction of the team based on their skills), but I hope they are. What I fear is that we head down the path that they take a while to develop even in the NHL, then we get into Brendan Smith territory where we argue their entire career whether they would have been better in another situation. Hopefully their ability negates all that and they end up being exactly what this team needs.

 

[Henkka]

People may view this as an insult, but when I watch him play, the player he reminds me of is Jay Bouwmeester (absoloute top end potential).

Edit: I meant in playing style. I see him as a #3 who plays similarly

I also see same. That skating is exactly like Bouwmeester.

 

[Run the Jewels]

"I could see him panning out as a 4-5 defenseman in the NHL."

I take that kind of as, "he's very likely a 4-5 defenseman in the NHL". Nothing about a ceiling etc.

I think it's fine not to project a guy with Cholowski's resume (no pro or major international games, 1 very good junior season) to be a likely top pairing D. Personally I'd rank him higher than 4-5 but the difference is minimal and also depends highly on the team he's on.

That's how I read it, 'this is his likely outcome'. And it's pretty reasonable IMO. He's a really good skater but he's not shown the kind of scoring potential you were hoping for. It also remains to be seen whether he has shutdown potential. The only plus tool he has right now is skating which is nice but his ultimate spot in the lineup will be determined on whether or not he can generate offense and/or shut down really good professional hockey players.