CHL players asking judge to stop major junior drafts

[ScoutLife4]

I agree. I think we see more players that the NHL is currently keeping with them end up in the AHL instead. Same players leaving but to the different league. Across the whole CHL, maybe you see an additional 5 players end up gone early? Maybe…

5 may even be a high number.
I would highly recommend for anyone thinking 19 year olds will be AHL ready to view a full game in person. -The game is no where near the same.
There is a reason most of the 20-22 year olds play 3rd / 4th line minutes when they get there for a year or 2.

 

[OMG67]

5 may even be a high number.
I would highly recommend for anyone thinking 19 year olds will be AHL ready to view a full game in person. -The game is no where near the same.
There is a reason most of the 20-22 year olds play 3rd / 4th line minutes when they get there for a year or 2.

I haven’t done the analysis but I think whatever the percentages are for the Americans and Europeans eligible and playing AHL at 19 would be similar to what it would be for the Canadians. My assumption is that number is pretty low.

 

[ScoutLife4]

Well the Canadians have contract slide too so be interesting to see what the eligibility rules will be.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

I agree. I think we see more players that the NHL is currently keeping with them end up in the AHL instead. Same players leaving but to the different league. Across the whole CHL, maybe you see an additional 5 players end up gone early? Maybe…

I think it's about the trickle down after. Sure maybe 5 players in the OHL in a given year. Might be more in the WHL or Q. How do you replace that talent overall in the league? With 16 year olds? There would be a slow talent drain. Quite possibly you won't get 19 year olds playing the WJC anymore depending on 17 and 18 year olds as well.

 

[ScoutLife4]

I think it's about the trickle down after. Sure maybe 5 players in the OHL in a given year. Might be more in the WHL or Q. How do you replace that talent overall in the league? With 16 year olds? There would be a slow talent drain. Quite possibly you won't get 19 year olds playing the WJC anymore depending on 17 and 18 year olds as well.

From the way everyone is always complaining about 16/17 year olds not getting enough ice time to develop it may be a good thing.

 

[OMG67]

I think it's about the trickle down after. Sure maybe 5 players in the OHL in a given year. Might be more in the WHL or Q. How do you replace that talent overall in the league? With 16 year olds? There would be a slow talent drain. Quite possibly you won't get 19 year olds playing the WJC anymore depending on 17 and 18 year olds as well.

I said maybe 5 across the entire CHL. That is all three leagues.

The NHL already takes CHLers early. The difference is those players may end up in the AHL instead of NHL or at least they can go up and down as needed. I really don’t think there will be many that are capable of playing in the AHL. It is a tough league to play in. If I were to do a scan of current players in the OHL and their ability to potentially play in the AHL, I could potentially see Ritchie and maybe Barlow and Rehkopf? I doubt all three would. So, probably 1 or 2 guys this year? I could see in an outlier year where as many as five could play AHL but that number would be skewed by the number of players that would have graduated early anyway with their NHL Teams pulling them regardless of AHL eligibility.

One big change that has happened over the last ten years is the US Born player pool getting so much better. That has increased the numebr of great players outside the NHL. IT is making the top tier feeder leagues more difficult to play in for the younger players.

 

[bcspragu]

I think if the OHL were to go to a hybrid Draft+Tender system, I think the rules would need to change from the USHL regarding the cost to tender. Maybe it runs in a three year cycle where if you tender a player in year one, you forfeit your 1st and 2nd picks. If you do it again in Year Two or three, you forfeit your first pick that year and the next year.

I could see it working just how the USHL does, maybe just cant tender 1st rounders in back to back years. I think most people realize the draft is already pretty cooked on who's going where. This would make it more out in the open

 

[RayzorIsDull]

I said maybe 5 across the entire CHL. That is all three leagues.

The NHL already takes CHLers early. The difference is those players may end up in the AHL instead of NHL or at least they can go up and down as needed. I really don’t think there will be many that are capable of playing in the AHL. It is a tough league to play in. If I were to do a scan of current players in the OHL and their ability to potentially play in the AHL, I could potentially see Ritchie and maybe Barlow and Rehkopf? I doubt all three would. So, probably 1 or 2 guys this year? I could see in an outlier year where as many as five could play AHL but that number would be skewed by the number of players that would have graduated early anyway with their NHL Teams pulling them regardless of AHL eligibility.

One big change that has happened over the last ten years is the US Born player pool getting so much better. That has increased the numebr of great players outside the NHL. IT is making the top tier feeder leagues more difficult to play in for the younger players.

I think it's a year by year thing. For example next year guys like Martone, Greentree, Parekh, Dickinson, Beaudoin, Spence, Sennecke, Hemming, Luchanko(in Philly right now probably get sent back). That's 9 alone right there it isn't far fetched 5 could go in one year and that's just the OHL.

 

[OMG67]

I could see it working just how the USHL does, maybe just cant tender 1st rounders in back to back years. I think most people realize the draft is already pretty cooked on who's going where. This would make it more out in the open

I dont’ think that is a strong enough rule. I think there needs to be a penalty. A team could effectively tender the best player every second year and not have ot give anything to get the player. I cannot see how that would work well at all. A team that is able to pul that off is likely going to finish high int he standings every season. With the defect rule in place, it doesn’t matter much about the cooked deals because by the time that team picks, the player is likely already drafted.

 

[OMG67]

I think it's a year by year thing. For example next year guys like Martone, Greentree, Parekh, Dickinson, Beaudoin, Spence, Sennecke, Hemming, Luchanko(in Philly right now probably get sent back). That's 9 alone right there it isn't far fetched 5 could go in one year and that's just the OHL.

Yup, there could be one year where there is an imbalance but it is not the norm. And, I would also suggest that some players would already be in the NHL anyway and that class would likely have a handful already. So, the real question is how many MORE would graduate to the AHL? I think Martone, Greentree, Spence, Senneke, Beaudoin, and Hemming already have mature bodies and would be NHL candidates anyway. Also, Hemming is likely eligible already.

If someone were to have the time to look at AHL rosters and see how many 19 year olds are in the AHL already, that would be a good indicator of how many CHL players would join them. I’d estimate that on an annual basis, we’d see a 2-1 ratio of CHL players to American/European players based on draft weighting and that Euro’s likely stay in Europe at 19 instead of play AHL. So, if there are 2-3 USA/Euro players in the AHL now, we’d likely see 5-6 annually on average added to that.

 

[Leviathan899]

This will certainly not help the product.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1848356660462391489

Short sighted move that won’t be used nearly as much as people expect imo.

It won't affect CHL very much.
Most of the 20-21 year olds are not big enough, strong enough to hang in the A.
I think it will be very rare that 19 year olds end up sticking in the A.

Look at Roobroeck this year, as an 04. 4th line and getting very little opportunity. But we think the year before that he’d have been good enough? The AHL is a hard league.

 

[Leviathan899]

Yup, there could be one year where there is an imbalance but it is not the norm. And, I would also suggest that some players would already be in the NHL anyway and that class would likely have a handful already. So, the real question is how many MORE would graduate to the AHL? I think Martone, Greentree, Spence, Senneke, Beaudoin, and Hemming already have mature bodies and would be NHL candidates anyway. Also, Hemming is likely eligible already.

If someone were to have the time to look at AHL rosters and see how many 19 year olds are in the AHL already, that would be a good indicator of how many CHL players would join them. I’d estimate that on an annual basis, we’d see a 2-1 ratio of CHL players to American/European players based on draft weighting and that Euro’s likely stay in Europe at 19 instead of play AHL. So, if there are 2-3 USA/Euro players in the AHL now, we’d likely see 5-6 annually on average added to that.

Look at Eduard Sale this year. 4th line minutes in Coachella, while Logan Morrison who played an OA season, is on their top line and on the cusp of being an NHL guy. Patience is always the best path with development. This move will result in those players mentioned stunting their development and becoming career bottom 6 guys as they don’t get the necessary ice and puck touches. JL Foudy and Cuylle both went to the AHL during Covid, next year the Avs keep Foudy up as they are morons when it comes to player development, Cuylle goes back to Windsor for a 19 year old season and plays with Johnston (better than any talent Foudy got to play with in the AHL) and now look whose further ahead? Foudy will never make the NHL now, and maybe wouldn’t have regardless, but his offensive upside has been absolutely stifled by going to the AHL too soon. Didn’t even dominate the OHL before graduating.

 

[OMG67]

Look at Eduard Sale this year. 4th line minutes in Coachella, while Logan Morrison who played an OA season, is on their top line and on the cusp of being an NHL guy. Patience is always the best path with development. This move will result in those players mentioned stunting their development and becoming career bottom 6 guys as they don’t get the necessary ice and puck touches. JL Foudy and Cuylle both went to the AHL during Covid, next year the Avs keep Foudy up as they are morons when it comes to player development, Cuylle goes back to Windsor for a 19 year old season and plays with Johnston (better than any talent Foudy got to play with in the AHL) and now look whose further ahead? Foudy will never make the NHL now, and maybe wouldn’t have regardless, but his offensive upside has been absolutely stifled by going to the AHL too soon. Didn’t even dominate the OHL before graduating.

More good points. But, at the end of the day, it doesnt’ matter what is best for the player. It only matters wha the NHL team thinks is best for their players. Some will erroneously place their prospects int he AHL.

IMO, the only players that should graduate to the AHL as 19 year olds are the ones physically mature enough to handle it. Additionally, I think they need to be top 6 or top 4 guys to make it worth while. For example, I am not sure Cowan is physically mature enough to handle the AHL. Any talk of him making the Leafs roster was silly. He’d have a hard time cracking the AHL roster in a top 6 role.