CHL/NCAA

[bigsportsfan]

3) No one is going to know for sure who is or isn’t going to be leaving until next September.

True, and after the NHL draft additional players are expected to commit to the NCAA so that number may go up.

My point was many OHL supporters are ignoring the OA players that are not returning and instead going to the NCAA. Most of those players are high quality players and the loss of those players will hurt the quality of the league.

 

[OMG67]

True, and after the NHL draft additional players are expected to commit to the NCAA so that number may go up.

My point was many OHL supporters are ignoring the OA players that are not returning and instead going to the NCAA. Most of those players are high quality players and the loss of those players will hurt the quality of the league.

And it may be offset by the American kids coming to the OHL. Will the OHL skew younger? Maybe. But I’d rather have the younger Americans that have more elite skill for three years than the mature OAs that are essentially hanging out an extra season.

The NCAA will start to skew older which will push out the 18 year olds. That means it is USHL for three years or CHL for three years. The American players will need to pick one. And the ceiling has not been reached for american players. The sport has tons of room to grow, unlike Canada. In a decade or so, USA will likely take over hockey dominance. That increases the total number of players which creates a much bigger pool.

I think hockey growth is poised for a rather large boom overall. I’m not saying it will catch Football or Basketball but the gap will narrow a bit and that will only help the CHL, NCAA and USHL.

 

[RB76]

Mckenna to Penn State

 

[Section7fan]

Pierce Mbuyi to Penn State. Just keeps getting worse.

 

[tomschman]

1) stop using AI to do your work for you.

2) the big names currently set for a 2025-26 freshman year from the OHL are Epperson, Ivankovic, and Spence. Any others are either farther out or not confirmed commitments yet.

3) No one is going to know for sure who is or isn’t going to be leaving until next September. Guys can sign contracts, NHL teams could tell them to stay in junior, their NCAA team might not have room for them, etc. Plus there’s the Jan 10 deadline where you will see a couple guys come back because they don’t like their situation. It’s all still very fluid.

Artificial Intellegance is better than no intellegence.

 

[Helvigster]

Mckenna to Penn State

I don't think this is legitimate. I haven't seen anything concrete about McKenna leaving for Penn State so far, only that it could happen.

 

[Petes1987]

Pierce Mbuyi to Penn State. Just keeps getting worse.

Is there nothing the OHL to stop players who were signed with their teams prior to the rule change from leaving OHL to play US College Hockey? Cannot they not hold them to their OHL Standard Player Contracts for remainder of their eligibility?

 

[coolhandluc44]

Is there nothing the OHL to stop players who were signed with their teams prior to the rule change from leaving OHL to play US College Hockey? Cannot they not hold them to their OHL Standard Player Contracts for remainder of their eligibility?

The only thing they can do is not give their scholarship money if they have not played their age 19 season but that won’t matter because guys leaving early like a Mbuyi will be on a full ride scholarship anyways

 

[RayzorIsDull]

 

[Kingpin794]

NCAA teams are trying to rush and get as many guys grandfathered in before July 1st. After that, no one knows if these kind of NIL deals in hockey will be approved or not. They might go through still or almost none of them will. Like in football its easier to justify a half a mil to millions of dollars deal when just about every major program can do that. Its the going rate. In hockey, 250-300k is VASTLY more that any school can offer. It's something only 5 or 6 schools can swing. Is the clearing house going to ok those deals? Idk.

 

[OMG67]

NCAA teams are trying to rush and get as many guys grandfathered in before July 1st. After that, no one knows if these kind of NIL deals in hockey will be approved or not. They might go through still or almost none of them will. Like in football its easier to justify a half a mil to millions of dollars deal when just about every major program can do that. Its the going rate. In hockey, 250-300k is VASTLY more that any school can offer. It's something only 5 or 6 schools can swing. Is the clearing house going to ok those deals? Idk.

It may be a one and done situation. It goes through this year because deals are signed and $$$ paid. But going forward, those deals would not be allowed.

 

[Kingpin794]

It may be a one and done situation. It goes through this year because deals are signed and $$$ paid. But going forward, those deals would not be allowed.

Yeah that's sort of what I'm getting at. This first class is the wild west but any after this may be more regulated. Or the enforcement could be completely toothless.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

NCAA teams are trying to rush and get as many guys grandfathered in before July 1st. After that, no one knows if these kind of NIL deals in hockey will be approved or not. They might go through still or almost none of them will. Like in football its easier to justify a half a mil to millions of dollars deal when just about every major program can do that. Its the going rate. In hockey, 250-300k is VASTLY more that any school can offer. It's something only 5 or 6 schools can swing. Is the clearing house going to ok those deals? Idk.

Been hearing some talk NCAA female athletes may take this to court. Lot of factors in play due to revenue sharing and that may further inhibit female athletes earning power. For example there are NCAA women's teams out there that outdraw their male counterparts. There will be a huge outcry if they don't get their fair part of revenue sharing. Deloitte is taking this on but I don't believe they will have the stomach to determine FMV of athletes for very long. There isn't a blueprint out there or scale to figure this out.

 

[OMG67]

Yeah that's sort of what I'm getting at. This first class is the wild west but any after this may be more regulated. Or the enforcement could be completely toothless.

I think they are getting serious as a result of the class action lawsuit. I’m not sure they can remain toothless. The auditors will also need to be complicit. I cannot see the auditors turning a blind eye.

The whole point of NIL was to stop the shenanigans and allow the players to make a fair market value. If they were going to remain toothless, why bother even bringing in NIL. It would be like legalizing weed for the purpose of taxing it and then do nothing about street dealers.

 

[OMG67]

Been hearing some talk NCAA female athletes may take this to court. Lot of factors in play due to revenue sharing and that may further inhibit female athletes earning power. For example there are NCAA women's teams out there that outdraw their male counterparts. There will be a huge outcry if they don't get their fair part of revenue sharing. Deloitte is taking this on but I don't believe they will have the stomach to determine FMV of athletes for very long. There isn't a blueprint out there or scale to figure this out.

I think there is. First, there is revenue generation. Second there is social media following with respect to influencing. There is a lot of concrete data regarding the value of follower counts and influencer compensation from social media.

If female basketball brings in 15% of all athletic revenue, female basketball should get 15% of the total revenue. Of course, that may be adjusted based on a certain percentage going to non-revenue generating sports but you get my point. It is purely allocation based.

Of course, we need to remember that there woudl be somewhat of a range. A kid getting $200k for helping out one day in an offseason skills camp is clearly offside, whereas $2k-$5k per day depending on the profile of the player, it would be somewhat more reasonable.

I believe they can develop reasonable guidelines depending on the profile ranking of the player and the number of followers they have on Instagram and other Socials.

 

[Kingpin794]

I think they are getting serious as a result of the class action lawsuit. I’m not sure they can remain toothless. The auditors will also need to be complicit. I cannot see the auditors turning a blind eye.

The whole point of NIL was to stop the shenanigans and allow the players to make a fair market value. If they were going to remain toothless, why bother even bringing in NIL. It would be like legalizing weed for the purpose of taxing it and then do nothing about street dealers.

Thing is, there is not such things as "fair market value" if there's NIL coming from 3rd parties. You can only determine what's fair value in a system that has upper bounds on it. If they truly are going on FMV, most of these deals should be either nixed or cut down severely. We shall see.

 

[OMG67]

Thing is, there is not such things as "fair market value" if there's NIL coming from 3rd parties. You can only determine what's fair value in a system that has upper bounds on it. If they truly are going on FMV, most of these deals should be either nixed or cut down severely. We shall see.

If you look at the list of activities where the Student Athlete can be paid, I do believe there is a fair market value established. Agents negotiate that value all the time, whether it be in sports or otherwise.

I think this gives us a sense of areas where the athletes can earn money:

What is NIL? NCAA Name, Image, Likeness Rule Explained

1> Autographs and memorabilia
2> Camps and Clinics
3> Personal Appearances
4> Merchandise
5> Affiliate/Ambassador roles
6> NFT’s
7> Blogging
8> Podcasting
9> Public Speaking
10> Music/art etc

A lot of that list allows for research into values for the work performed. Is there a range? Of course. But Penn State cannot have a booster pay Gavin McKenna $300,000 for a speaking appearance when the ex-President of the United States doesn’t get that. It would have to be matched against other similar athletes and their registered appearance fees.

Keep in mind that we are also talking about Canadians. A Canadian cannot perform an appearance fee in the USA. So, really, they are somewhat limited to Affiliate/Ambassador roles for Canadian companies, Podcasting, Blogging, and Merchandizing opportunities. They need to fulfill their commitment on Canadian soil.

I really don’t feel this is as difficult as many expect. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s usually a duck. The onus will be on the athlete to justify their income, not the other way around.

IMO, they will be paid an amount that is commensurate of their status in their sport and anything extra through NIL will be subject to justification. It will not be the auditor there to fight against it, it will be the athlete that will have to justify it as fair market value. When it looks odd, they will need to justify it as will the organization/company that is giving the fee.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Thing is, there is not such things as "fair market value" if there's NIL coming from 3rd parties. You can only determine what's fair value in a system that has upper bounds on it. If they truly are going on FMV, most of these deals should be either nixed or cut down severely. We shall see.

Right because FMV deals with value in a unrestricted market place. This is why this current landscape might be around for some time it won't stand the test of time. Sports will change, revenues will increase. Trying to police a player making 250k collectively from autograph sessions, merchandise sales, speaking engagements. If a McKenna signed jersey goes for 20k at a golf outing is Deloitte going to audit that?