CHL/NCAA

[Kingpin794]

Jeff Marek reporting today BU is interested in both Misa brothers for next season, and he says he won’t be s surprised to see 4 high end CHL guys on Michigan’s roster for next season. If so, kiss the OHL goodbye as an elite league. This is the worst case scenario.

Fat chance on the Misas. What? The NHL team that picks Michael isn't going to sign him right away? Luke isn't going to get a contract from Calgary?

 

[Leviathan899]

I heard from a guy at the bus stop today that the CHL is really interested in every player in the USNTDP and will throw a ton of weight behind recruiting all of those players. I think the USNTDP is going to be in a World of trouble….

You don’t think it’s noteworthy that Marek is reporting this? We know he gets his info from the agents themselves or from coaches/GM’s. If He’s saying this, you know it’s coming from a good source. Trust me, I don’t want it to happen either.

 

[OMG67]

You don’t think it’s noteworthy that Marek is reporting this? We know he gets his info from the agents themselves or from coaches/GM’s. If He’s saying this, you know it’s coming from a good source. Trust me, I don’t want it to happen either.

My point is that the London Knights would “want” the first ten picks in every draft. It doesn't mean the OHL will give those picks to them. London can open negotiations with the OHL to try to advance that goal but you and I know that negotiation is meaningless.

It is good to want. It is good to go after what you want. Suggesting that BU WANTS the Misa’s next year is nothing more than vocalizing what EVERY NCAA program would want.

If we look at this logically, for BU to pull this off, we’d have to assume that both Misa’s would turn down NHL ELC’s to go play NCAA. For what reason? Why would they do that? Because BU “wants” it? Because BU has reached out or will reach out to try to make it happen.

The words Marek used are meaningless. OF COURSE BU wants the Misa’s. Of course Michigan will want to recruit the top players. Their efforts aren’t’ changing, only the available targets have changes. And just because the targets have changed, ti doesn’t’ make ti any more realistic that they land those players.

There may be an oddball situation that arises where the situation creates a perfect fit. Maybe a player like Martone doesn’t’ feel continuing in the OHL is in his best interest for development but that still requires the component where the NHL team that drafts him (likely top 3) chooses not to offer him a contract. It means that Martone would shun his team team and not go to their training camp because he will have committed to “wherever” pretty much within a month or so of the draft. That scenario plays out for all of these guys. NHL trading in camp takes place during the school year.

When these talking points get stretched out into the business of hockey, a lot of them don’t make sense.

We all agree that it may affect the OA’s most. A player like Luke Misa who is an OA next year may decide to not go back to the OHL for an OA season. His OHL contract has been fulfilled. HE qualifies for his scholarship, effectively earning it. If his contract negotiations aren’t’ going well with Calgary, a player like Misa may decide that the NCAA would be a better development path. I think we can all agree he is the exact type of player that makes sense, provided he is scholastically inclined and he truly feels that is the best path at that point. But, his brother will likely go top-5 in June and that will likely result in an ELC offer. Will he decline that offer to go play at BU? That seems insane to me. At best, he would go to BU for one season. At best. And, if he goes to BU and gets a career ending injury, then what? No NHL contract. Likely little insurance coverage for lost career wages etc. No agent would endorse that decision without a multi-million dollar insurance policy. Who would cover the cost of that policy? And why would Misa go from 68 games to 30? Or throw away the potential of playing NHL next year because, yes, that is a possibility. Depending on the team that drafts him, he could stick in the NHL and make his $900k rookie salary plus bonus $$$. But, he will forego that to go play at BU….

So, what seems more likley? That BU WANTS those guys or that those guys are already seriously considering it and will sign and go play together foregoing their Pro shot for at least one more year?

I see no reason for a player to go NCAS for one eyar. Players that go NCAA should be doing it for the right reasons. One year doesn’t seem like a good reason.

 

[frontsfan67]

Every team in the NCAA wants the Misa’s, Martones and McKenna’s. Everyone knows this- why would they not?

Only question is if those guys have interest in joining those clubs. Probably is some interest. Definitely do not think McKenna goes though as Medicine Hat is primed for a big run this year and especially next year. Crosby, McDavid, lindros, Lemieux, Orr and more all played chl hockey it clearly worked out well for them and the kid has known that he’s going to be a big superstar for years why would he care about school? I don’t see it.

 

[RB76]

A couple of things seem certain, this group of kids will be in a stronger negotiating position and will be able to sign better ELC's. And two, AHL salaries will need to go up.

 

[RB76]

The top 3% of CHL players are going to sign ELC's. What we're really talking about is the remaining 97% who have a limited realistic opportunity to play pro hockey.

Those 19 and 20-year-olds with D1 commits will have more options going forward. Stay and play an overage year or join a NCAA D1 program.

For most it will likely depend on the individual situations but many families will be drawn to the opportunity for their child to pursue an education, enjoy the NCAA environment and experience while continuing to chase their dream of playing professional hockey.

 

[OMG67]

The top 3% of CHL players are going to sign ELC's. What we're really talking about is the remaining 97% who have a limited realistic opportunity to play pro hockey.

Those 19 and 20-year-olds with D1 commits will have more options going forward. Stay and play an overage year or join a NCAA D1 program.

For most it will likely depend on the individual situations but many families will be drawn to the opportunity for their child to pursue an education, enjoy the NCAA environment and experience while continuing to chase their dream of playing professional hockey.

I think everyone is relatively certain that the cohort most likely to go NCAA from the CHL are the OA’s. Actually, it is really the 21 year olds after their OA season but that doesn’t impact the CHL.

The profile of the player most likely to play NCAA and leave the CHL is an OA that doesn’t have pro prospects, is a reasonably good student and has continued their education after high school taking University level courses part time, would otherwise have used their OHL Scholarship, and is a strong enough player to garner a full ride scholarship at the NCAA level. A good example of this type of player would be the Leblanc twins in North Bay (assuming they are inclined scholastically).

The second cohort would be the disenfranchised players that never really got a viable opportunity in the OHL but still carry some respect outside the OHL. They feel their career is going nowhere, they are 18 years old, have played three years in the league but never really found a role. They are scholastically inclined and understand their career is likely not in hockey but they can leverage whatever hockey they have left into an NCAA scholarship. A good example of a player in that situation would be Luca Testa (assuming he is scholastically inclined). A 1st round pick that hasn’t really caught on in either London or Brantford/Hamilton. Floating around at .5 PPG in his 3rd season. I could see a player like that next year decide the grind in the OHL is heavy and the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

Some would suggest the third cohort is a player like Porter Martone if he wasn’t offered an ELC and wanted to play with the better competition in the NCAA. Or, the player that chooses to not sign their ELC to remain eligible for the NCAA and want to play there because they cannot play AHL. I don’t see either of those cohorts existing. That is a lot of risk. Blue Chip prospects will typically not delay signing their ELC. Players like Owen Power are rare. If they are ready to play in the NHL and/or their NHL team wants them, most agents will tell the player to start their UFA clock ASAP. Players that are too good for the OHL but not good enough for the NHL are few and far between. These are the same players we’ve discussed in the past that likely should be in the AHL. I think if the age restriction rule for the CHL players entering the AHL were to change, we’d see more players assigned to the AHL than the number of players that leave for the NCAA early.

 

[coolhandluc44]

The top 3% of CHL players are going to sign ELC's. What we're really talking about is the remaining 97% who have a limited realistic opportunity to play pro hockey.

Those 19 and 20-year-olds with D1 commits will have more options going forward. Stay and play an overage year or join a NCAA D1 program.

For most it will likely depend on the individual situations but many families will be drawn to the opportunity for their child to pursue an education, enjoy the NCAA environment and experience while continuing to chase their dream of playing professional hockey.

All good points but if the CHL leagues are adamant that if you leave prior to completing your 19 year old season you are not entitled to the CHL education package that is a huge gamble. NCAA scholarships are not guaranteed year after year and many teams do not give out full rides.

If you want to give yourself the most options and security for getting your education paid for, you would be best to play out your 19 year old season to keep your options open. It would not be good for a player to jump ship to the NCAA prior, get cut after a year or two and be left with nothing.