CHL Can Now Play NCAA - Changes Everything

[Leviathan899]

A reasonable argument and a plausible scenario, though there are a couple of more shoes to drop. So why the feeling that CHL fans are losing their collective minds???

They see guys like Apen

Right because it's been the default Canadian path, which is where 100% then 80% then 50 % and now around 40 % players over time come from.

Sure, but if you have less good 19/20 year olds, the quality of play lessens. Just a natural part of it. Backfilling with some more high-end 16 year olds doesn't improve quality of play.

I don't see how this "evens out". 16 year olds are way less physically developed than older players. Even lower ceiling 19/20 year olds will be a lot better than the highest end 16 year olds.

The "loser"... no. Just thinking through everything, good chance the CHL will just have to come to a grips with an ego blow of no longer being atop the amateur hockey pyramid.

Sure yeah they'll have to deal with that ego blow as well.

There are 4X as many CHL teams as there are USHL teams at the end of the day. To the extent the USHL stays lean, there is likely plenty of room for them to be producing high-end NCAA players, particularly domestic players that don't want to move countries while still being minors unless they feel like they are left no choice.

All the USHL really needs to aim for is to say "hey, this is also a viable path towards NCAA, just like it always has been and just like the CHL is. You can still play here, atop the USA Hockey junior pyramid, show out, get NCAA offers from premiere destinations, if you're an American kid, you don't have to move, you can just as easily play in a domestic league and not be disadvantaged from college and eventually pro hockey". It doesn't need to try and be "better" than the CHL. Just like The Finnish Juniors doesn't need to be "better" than Swedish Juniors to still represent a viable path for kids from Finland to be pro hockey players.

It's all just a pathway and stepping stone, it's not a Mini-NHL where players should do everything in their power to secure a spot in the "best" league. If there are multiple pathways to something available, they don't need to play in the "best" league every step of the way, which is largely noise (over zealous parents may think their kid playing for the Don Mills Flyers is participating in the 14 year old Stanley Cup but most everyone there is just going to be a talented beer leaguer one day all the same). To get back to the point, when CHL was the only* (more or less) pathway to the NHL, that's where you had to go. The more pathways that open up, the less imperative it is for players to play in CHL. Of course all else being equal, a Canadian kid would rather play there than United States. The goal for USA Hockey would be to say, if all else being equal, if you are an American kid, you should want to play USHL rather than CHL accordingly.

It seems like USA hockey is the big loser in all of this, at least in the immediate future. Record amount of Canadians stealing spots in college, but this move will allow more elite Americans to develop in the CHL before school, which is better for their development than the USHL. So in time I think this will help the Americans and create more depth for them.

 

[WarriorofTime]

AHL has a backflow of guys they want to maintain ice time for and not very many teenagers are AHL ready. I’m all in favor of options and didn’t like the CHL transfer agreement arbitrarily blocking guys from playing AHL if that was the path. I just don’t know if we’ll see a ton of teenage AHLers coming out of it. Probably just see CHL look more like USHL now as heavily an ncaa feeder that sees a lot of players matriculate before junior eligibility expire but not all. Then ushl look more like BCHL are a suitable domestic pipeline to good D1 but not as good. And then BCHL more like Canadian Junior A filling in gaps here and there, and NAHL/Canadian Junior A to the extent the spots are all filled being more like D3 and USports feeders.

 

[wetcoast]

It's becoming clear that this will essentially make the NCAA a mandatory step for all aspiring NHLers from Canada or USA, as there will not be any comparable alternative league for elite 17+ players. I suspect in 2027, we see as many as 75% of all 1st round picks being drafted out of the NCAA. I expect the vast majority of potential first-round talent to accelerate their schooling, such that they play their draft years in the NCAA. This change will essentially smooth the transition from junior to pro, by having the NCAA act as a intermediate league for the vast majority of NHL-bound players. Junior hockey is going to become much, much worse, in both the CHL, and the USHL.

As far as junior hockey as a business in Canada is concerned, I think it is almost certainly dead as a viable business. This change is going to decimate the fanbases for all CHL teams, as it's a star-driven league, and when your league has no stars, there's no appeal.

In general, it's a major win for the NCAA. I think it will probably be a positive change for most NHL-bound talent, as it smooth out the development runway, and the NCAA will have an incomparable talent pool. It will also be a major boon for NHL scouts, as they will get to see significantly more direct competition between the best draft-eligible players.

I'm looking forward to seeing how all the CHLers fair in the NCAA next year, it's going to make for interesting discourse. My fandom for Canadian junior hockey is completely dead. I will also not become a fan of NCAA hockey, and will follow it exclusively for my interest in prospects in general. Bad times for Canadian hockey. Good times for elite Canadian hockey players. Good times for the NCAA, and its fans.

I guess this is fair coming from Victoria today but I think it's too early to write off the CHL at this point overall.

But then again maybe I'm being a bit hopefull here, hard to say as the landscape is changing but I think some players will want to be the big fish on a CHL team rather than get lost in the shuffle of a NCAA powerhouse but of course the star power might be the ultimate issue here.

I got to say I really feel for the Victoria franchise today that was a real gut punch to them.

 

[Leviathan899]

NCAA absolutely owned the CHL with this change. Already losing 2008 top prospects

The NCAA has stuck a death knell in USA hockey, is what they’ve done. Unless they improve their game and have more than 10 AAA teams developing talent, Canadians are going to reverse the gains made by the Americans. You’ve had horrendous drafts back to back years, and yes you’ve won the WJC and still have elite talent at the very top. But this move will see much less Americans on college campuses, and the CHL will be the dominant pipeline for the NCAA. The OHL has had record attendance back to back seasons, they’re going to be more than fine.

 

[Blue and Green]

I guess this is fair coming from Victoria today but I think it's too early to write off the CHL at this point overall.

But then again maybe I'm being a bit hopefull here, hard to say as the landscape is changing but I think some players will want to be the big fish on a CHL team rather than get lost in the shuffle of a NCAA powerhouse but of course the star power might be the ultimate issue here.

I got to say I really feel for the Victoria franchise today that was a real gut punch to them.

People will rightfully no longer have any trust that good players will stay for any length of time, so why follow the team? Post-1994 Montreal Expos syndrome. Now imagine the effect at an entire league level as this kind of situation becomes the rule rather than the exception.

 

[Corso]

It seems like USA hockey is the big loser in all of this, at least in the immediate future. Record amount of Canadians stealing spots in college, but this move will allow more elite Americans to develop in the CHL before school, which is better for their development than the USHL. So in time I think this will help the Americans and create more depth for them.

It's what I've been arguing all along. This move will give elite American born players an extra 60 programs to develop in. I will also stand by my prediction that within the next couple of seasons, the majority of the top American talent will be in the CHL.

AHL has a backflow of guys they want to maintain ice time for and not very many teenagers are AHL ready. I’m all in favor of options and didn’t like the CHL transfer agreement arbitrarily blocking guys from playing AHL if that was the path. I just don’t know if we’ll see a ton of teenage AHLers coming out of it. Probably just see CHL look more like USHL now as heavily an ncaa feeder that sees a lot of players matriculate before junior eligibility expire but not all. Then ushl look more like BCHL are a suitable domestic pipeline to good D1 but not as good. And then BCHL more like Canadian Junior A filling in gaps here and there, and NAHL/Canadian Junior A to the extent the spots are all filled being more like D3 and USports feeders.

On any given year, there are perhaps a few high end 18 year old players that can play all season and be properly developed in the AHL. I would argue that by the age of 19 there would be at least two dozen players able to play and develop in the A. I fully expect most of the real high end elite CHL players take this route (notice I did not say all.)

People will rightfully no longer have any trust that good players will stay for any length of time, so why follow the team? Post-1994 Montreal Expos syndrome. Now imagine the effect at an entire league level as this kind of situation becomes the rule rather than the exception.

I'm not sure that the CHL will become the USHL of the north but they are going to lose a not an insignificant amount of players either to the AHL/NHL or the NCAA. The CHL prefers the former over the latter since they will still receive development fees for players signing their ELCs. I raised this very question about fan support some time ago and it will be interesting to see how this develops. They are taking steps to mitigate losses and some of the ideas, from my "all encompassing sources" I've heard are direct payouts of scholarship money earned to the players or transferable to the players family/siblings if they complete their junior eligibility and the establishment of sponsorship deals with local businesses for payments (NIL). This will help some. The fact is though, that no matter how you look at it, the CHL will get younger in terms of elite talent.

 

[goavsblue8]

Some people overstate how difficult it is to accelerate through school early and qualify—especially now that online options have changed the game. A few speed bumps this first year due to some core course issues, but moving forward, with better planning, this won’t be a problem. New path for top tier types is going be:

Elite prospect top 5 types-
15-17 CHL, draft year ncaa

1st and second rounder types
16-18 CHL
19-20 NCAA

Obviously be exceptions(like elite chl teams like london will probably have a good shot at keeping guys around) but for most this will be it

 

[Number 57]

It is time for the province of Quebec to leave the CHL and make their very own NCAA-like program to develop tomorrow's stars for the NHL.

Since most Quebec kids speak French as their first language, they are less likely to leave for NCAA to go to English schools. This is an opportunity to retain their top players, whereas the OHL and WHL will see their guys go the NCAA route.

-Abolish QMJHL
-Retain teams only in metro areas like Montreal, Laval, Quebec City, Trois-Rivières, Gatineau, Sherbrooke and Rimouski
-These teams become development ''academies'' like top USA schools for the top kids in Quebec
-Link these teams to big CEGEP/Universities
-Increase government founding
-Increase recruiting of European and American players if at all possible in order to make level of play as high as possible
-Strengthen U17 minor-league hockey in the province

 

[Fyodorov]

The NCAA has stuck a death knell in USA hockey, is what they’ve done. Unless they improve their game and have more than 10 AAA teams developing talent, Canadians are going to reverse the gains made by the Americans. You’ve had horrendous drafts back to back years, and yes you’ve won the WJC and still have elite talent at the very top. But this move will see much less Americans on college campuses, and the CHL will be the dominant pipeline for the NCAA. The OHL has had record attendance back to back seasons, they’re going to be more than fine.

the spin is real

 

[WarriorofTime]

On any given year, there are perhaps a few high end 18 year old players that can play all season and be properly developed in the AHL. I would argue that by the age of 19 there would be at least two dozen players able to play and develop in the A. I fully expect most of the real high end elite CHL players take this route (notice I did not say all.)

Yeah and best way to prove that would be to play in ncaa when they are 18 and show they’re ready. Most kids like to do two then burn year but if kid and team are good with one year then 19 in AHL (which still slides contract) then that’s possibility as well. Levshunov did just that (although played enough nhl games to burn not slide ELC)

 

[goavsblue8]

Yeah and best way to prove that would be to play in ncaa when they are 18 and show they’re ready. Most kids like to do two then burn year but if kid and team are good with one year then 19 in AHL (which still slides contract) then that’s possibility as well. Levshunov did just that (although played enough nhl games to burn not slide ELC)

Yep i’ll be shocked if nhl teams don't tell most top chl guys(guys they dont think have a good shot at immediately making the nhl roster) after the draft to do a year or two in college then they’ll sign them to an elc. College hockey is simply the best developmental option for those guys that age unless they want to whack the age rules around the chl and ahl. In that case though the chl would just lose top 18 and 19 year olds to ahl. One thing I know is the top tier 18 or 19 year old playing in the chl is long gone. There will be exceptions(like the London kids) but most will gone after their draft year.

 

[Oak]

I'm really curious on how the USHL plans to stay relevant. I know they are supposedly getting support from the NHL next year but the support in question is very vague.

I just don't see why a player choses to go USHL if he has an option to go CHL unless something drastic changes.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Yep i’ll be shocked if nhl teams don't tell most top chl guys(guys they dont think have a good shot at immediately making the nhl roster) after the draft to do a year or two in college then they’ll sign them to an elc. College hockey is simply the best developmental option for those guys that age unless they want to whack the age rules around the chl and ahl. In that case though the chl would just lose top 18 and 19 year olds to ahl. One thing I know is the top tier 18 or 19 year old playing in the chl is long gone. There will be exceptions(like the London kids) but most will gone after their draft year.

Keep in mind college hockey , only play half the games of the CHL, that’s the reason a lot of college kids hit the wall in their first NHL year in January or February.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'm really curious on how the USHL plans to stay relevant. I know they are supposedly getting support from the NHL next year but the support in question is very vague.

I just don't see why a player choses to go USHL if he has an option to go CHL unless something drastic changes.

Ya will be hard for the USHL.

 

[2Mototik2]

This is an impossible ask of the internet but I think nothing can really be said for certain until a year or two down the line. Right now we're in the initial mad dash where everything is all hectic but I do think it will peter out eventually with less shocks.

CHL teams will (hopefully) have a better handle on team management after this first wave happens and they can better work with their existing players on a beneficial outcome for both the players and the teams, NCAA teams will be better equipped to see what realistic opportunities they have for CHLers and then the NHL can also get involved, directly or indirectly, with ELCs and signing players. Then we'll see the trickle down into the USHL and Canadian Jr. A and below.

I do think the biggest thing will be future players viewing this first wave of CHL-NCAA players as the test subjects. If it proves to be a success venture for the non-overage players, we may see more players willing to take the jump early. If it doesn't, it may scare some players off for a couple more years of CHL play. You could maybe see this as "CHL fan cope", but I can see some players realizing they made a mistake by going to the NCAA.

 

[IHaveNoCreativity]

The depth in the NCAA will get stronger, but there’s guys who would play top line CHL minutes that will get buried, and when that happens, that’s when people will think twice.

For a lot of guys it’s like yeah it’s a better level, but is your game suited to it and are you ready to be there ? It’s not every 17 or 18 year old who does well there.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I think if the CHL cut itself in half and was able to build a 30 team national semi pro league then it would be able to offer something of similar on ice quality as the NCAA.

However, 60 teams is diluting the talent pool so drastically that the quality of competition isn't great for the elite players and the good players drafted at the top of the WHL/OHL/QMJHL draft have zero interest to report and play 2 years on a rebuilding team to have maybe one good season before turning pro.

 

[NTDP]

Keep in mind college hockey , only play half the games of the CHL, that’s the reason a lot of college kids hit the wall in their first NHL year in January or February.

This is one of the biggest Bullcrap narratives that was completely invented out of Canada. Several NCAA guys jump in every year and they do just fine. If that was such a detriment to your development then why are so many CHL guys committing at various birth years now? Show me proof how many NHLers blamed the college route on anything, it's always been a better path.

Once Canadians start watching the NCAA over the next few years they'll get it, it's a completely false narrative that holds zero weight. College kids are also way way more suited for the physicality of the pro game as well, something the CHL doesn't provide as much with 19-20 year olds playing against 16-17 year olds. We won't be having these discussions 5 years from now.

 

[goavsblue8]

This is one of the biggest Bullcrap narratives that was completely invented out of Canada. Several NCAA guys jump in every year and they do just fine. Do you not know that the NCAA guys who played USHL play a 62 game schedule??? If that was such a detriment to your development then why are so many CHL guys committing at various birth years now?

Once Canadians start watching the NCAA over the next few years they'll get it, it's a completely false narrative that holds zero weight. College kids are also way way more suited for the physicality of the pro game as well, something the CHL can't provide.

Really the only thing the chl has on the ncaa for development is more games and I think you'd actually find some that this lessgame is better for development at that age because s&c development and skill development is whats most important then. Also decreases likelihood of Injury. Chl is no where close to the ncaa for s&c and nutrition either. Hell many nhl franchises aren't either. College hockey at some of the bigschools gets all the benefit of the absurd football money flowing down. Enables colleges to put resources in training facilities, nutrition and s&c that's better than even some nhl teams.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

 

[jtechkid68]

To the best of my knowledge right now, there will be very few 18 year old players leaving for the NCAA and perhaps a dozen or so 19 year old players; so no most are not leaving at 18 or 19. Where the CHL will feel it most is with the O/A players as there will not be very many quality 20 year old players left over.

Don’t you think all the first round potential picks will head to college and play against better competition during draft year . Once you get 2-3 top kids head to college for their draft year I think the flood gates open .

 

[Golden_Jet]

Don’t you think all the first round potential picks will head to college and play against better competition during draft year .

No, I don’t think anyone thinks all potential 1st round picks will go to college.

 

[David Suzuki]

makes total sense for the players to go this route but…

it also seems like a bad thing for the development of the sport in the only country that really cares about the sport and therefore the overall health of it to this fella.

 

[Corso]

Don’t you think all the first round potential picks will head to college and play against better competition during draft year . Once you get 2-3 top kids head to college for their draft year I think the flood gates open .

Short answer...No.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

makes total sense for the players to go this route but…

it also seems like a bad thing for the development of the sport in the only country that really cares about the sport and therefore the overall health of it to this fella.

How? CHLers get to move up a level to play against older, age appropriate competition before turning pro. The CHL will still get great players, especially now since you keep your NCAA eligibility, but they'll lose em earlier as those guys go to the NCAA. It'll just make the talent curve of the CHL skew a bit younger now.

Additionally, NCAA programs will steer their recruits coming out of minor hockey to their assigned CHL team if they believe those organizations will develop guys well. Plenty of CHLers won't be NCAA ready at 18 years old, their NCAA program will send em back to junior for another year plus, helping their development and therefore major junior retains talent another year.

This isn't some CART/IRL split thing where everyone is leaving one for the other: you can still play major junior for a few years and then go to the NCAA.