The general assumption for any floodgates seemed to be post-NHL draft once the hockey calendar kind of shifted into next year. EDIT: and both players and teams at all levels could take stock of where everyone was at, including any NHL ELCs.
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Jared Grayden
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- Mar 23, 2025
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I'd expect after the draft is when you'll see a mass exodus of 2025 and 2026 top draft class prospects commit to NCAA teams.
What a weird list- the Reschny/Voerhoff combo is a much bigger story than that group
Katzin was always going to the NCAA, Misa is an OA. Then there's 4 U20's throwing their weight around to escape teams being gutted by graduations.
Maybe there will be a mass exodus, maybe not, but either way that defection leverage is something to keep a serious eye on- veteran CHLers may elect to stay in the league, but they will not be held hostage in situations they don't want to be in
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I don't think that there will be a mass exodus but it sure feels like it for Victoria today.
landy92mack29
Registered User
Mckenna was the only one who I thought might leave for the younger guys. Very douchy move by Verhoeff to only give Victoria 1 year before leaving and they were built to win next year.
To be fair it is every players right to do so.
I guess he thinks that it's in his best interests, time will tell.
Of course many of the names going are aging out and older and some of them probably won't fair as well so all of this will take a couple of years to sort out anyways.
landy92mack29
Registered User
after 2 years like Reschny yeah I agree but if you don't give 2 years to the team that drafted you(especially high) that's a bad look in my eyes. Mckenna has 2 already with the Tigers. Will be interesting how things change as in the past it was worry of players going Junior A-NCAA path and not signing where now teams might pass on players high if they don't commit X amount of years to their CHL team
All of this is fine and well, but what does it add up to? That the AHL trajectory can be molded to... look like the NCAA trajectory? Why not simply... go the NCAA trajectory?
Also I know it's an afterthought on a hockey prospect message board, but it's at least worth mentioning that the NCAA is a scholastic organization and offers an education that the AHL does not.
Boonk
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- Oct 10, 2017
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Every person of any age has the right to higher education if they pursue it including minor teens, and theres legally nothing the CHL can do to prevent that in either Canada or the US.
Because the NCAA doesnt offer
-pro competition
-pro development resources
-the ability to earn an NHL call up
Literally every hockey relating reason for choosing NCAA over junior at U19-u20 applies to choosing Ahl over ncaa at the same age- if a player is ready
Boonk
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The AHL is pro hockey, its not supposed to be a scholastic route for anything. Its supposed to employ pro hockey athletes and either feed them to their NHL parent clubs or pay them a contract and salary independently. As much as it gets dunked on all the time its a much higher level than D1 and its absolutely beneficial for player development, considering it feeds the most players to the NHL and uses their parent clubs systems, facilities and training to do so. Imo any 18-20+ yr old legal adult in the CHL that can play well at the pro level should have the right to do so if they sign a pro contract, just like they should have had the right to the NCAA route and do now.
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It's becoming clear that this will essentially make the NCAA a mandatory step for all aspiring NHLers from Canada or USA, as there will not be any comparable alternative league for elite 17+ players. I suspect in 2027, we see as many as 75% of all 1st round picks being drafted out of the NCAA. I expect the vast majority of potential first-round talent to accelerate their schooling, such that they play their draft years in the NCAA. This change will essentially smooth the transition from junior to pro, by having the NCAA act as a intermediate league for the vast majority of NHL-bound players. Junior hockey is going to become much, much worse, in both the CHL, and the USHL.
As far as junior hockey as a business in Canada is concerned, I think it is almost certainly dead as a viable business. This change is going to decimate the fanbases for all CHL teams, as it's a star-driven league, and when your league has no stars, there's no appeal.
In general, it's a major win for the NCAA. I think it will probably be a positive change for most NHL-bound talent, as it smooth out the development runway, and the NCAA will have an incomparable talent pool. It will also be a major boon for NHL scouts, as they will get to see significantly more direct competition between the best draft-eligible players.
I'm looking forward to seeing how all the CHLers fair in the NCAA next year, it's going to make for interesting discourse. My fandom for Canadian junior hockey is completely dead. I will also not become a fan of NCAA hockey, and will follow it exclusively for my interest in prospects in general. Bad times for Canadian hockey. Good times for elite Canadian hockey players. Good times for the NCAA, and its fans.
As far as junior hockey as a business in Canada is concerned, I think it is almost certainly dead as a viable business. This change is going to decimate the fanbases for all CHL teams, as it's a star-driven league, and when your league has no stars, there's no appeal.
In general, it's a major win for the NCAA. I think it will probably be a positive change for most NHL-bound talent, as it smooth out the development runway, and the NCAA will have an incomparable talent pool. It will also be a major boon for NHL scouts, as they will get to see significantly more direct competition between the best draft-eligible players.
I'm looking forward to seeing how all the CHLers fair in the NCAA next year, it's going to make for interesting discourse. My fandom for Canadian junior hockey is completely dead. I will also not become a fan of NCAA hockey, and will follow it exclusively for my interest in prospects in general. Bad times for Canadian hockey. Good times for elite Canadian hockey players. Good times for the NCAA, and its fans.
Top NCAA schools have better facilities than the AHL teams lol and the top of the top start to rival the worst NHL setups
This is unlikely. Accelerating is a pain in the butt and if you're not a top 5 talent usually NCAA at 17 is rough.
I think tons of the top recently drafted picks will be heading right to NCAA though.
With how many of the top talents spend their entire education in hockey prep schools, accelerating is becoming easier and easier. I know both Eli McKamey, and Landon DuPont have accelerated their schooling, and are highly likely to be playing their draft seasons in the NCAA. Admittedly, DuPont is an exceptional talent, but regardless, I think it's going to become commonplace. Certainly all the late-born players will play their draft seasons in NCAA, such as McQueen, Lakovic, Martone, Spence, etc., and I expect it to become more common.
For next years draft, for example, I expect the all of Gavin McKenna, Chase Harrington, Julien Maze, Ryan Roobroeck, Chase Reid, and Lars Steiner to play NCAA next year.
The CHL might have one year of reprieve for Draft-eligible players born in 2008, just because some of them may not have accelerated their schooling in time. For late-born 2008 and younger, I expect that to change. For example, I expect both Jaxon Jacobson, and Shaeffer Gordon-Carroll play their draft years in the NCAA.
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AyeBah
Registered User
- Apr 5, 2019
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What matters more winning a WHL title or NCAA natty? Dont think its even close really
Hockeyville USA
Registered User
Oscar Plandowski (2003, USports, University of New Brunswick, formerly QMJHL, Detroit 2021 5th rounder) commits to New Hampshire.
Gyms are nice- but if the goal is to ne the best hockey player you can be an NHL org's dev staff trump shiny weights
Absolutely no issue with them having the right to do so. And there is a place for the AHL in terms of helping some prospects to develop. I just don't think the AHL is an objectively or subjectively (from the perspective of the prospects) superior pathway than the NCAA, and if anything I would say that the NCAA has advantages vis a vis the AHL. Especially if a prospect has not yet played in the NCAA and is coming from the CHL.
frontsfan67
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- Dec 3, 2022
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I agree. Should give team a heads up and then they can trade you and lot lose you for nothing.
Unfortunately that’s likely the new norm for some smaller teams with minimal playoff success like Victoria. Kingston who I cheer for may fall victim in the future. Only real good guy on team though now is Battaglia and he signed the ELC though.
Blue and Green
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- Dec 17, 2017
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Case in point: When Bedard played for Regina at age 17, after his WJC dominance the Pats (a mediocre team that scraped into the playoffs) not only drew better attendance at home but even more so became a huge draw on the road, and of course it was all about Bedard and nothing to do with the rest of the team. If CHL can't even hold top guys for their 17YO calendar-year season, there'll be a serious problem. (I had never considered that accelerated schooling might become a common thing.)
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