CHL Can Now Play NCAA - Changes Everything

[WarriorofTime]

Similarly I think it makes sense for any high end late born to spend their draft year in the NCAA - if they're good enough. Fast tracking highschool- I'm not sure if that's going to take off though.

That's what makes the McKenna situation so interesting to follow. If he goes to NCAA, has success and then jumps into NHL and has a strong rookie year, you can see that having a snowball effect.

But I think many underestimating the upward effect on NCAA league play from A and B, how it is going to limit the actual NCAA desire to nab U19/U20 one and done's, and indeed how it's going to push out a lot of the current U20 NCAA player base. I also think some are underestimating the effect the reverse flow will have on negating the OA loss for CHL quality of play. The CHL is going to get more of the high end U17/U18 players, and less of them are going to be wanted prior to U21/U22

Yeah no doubt, a lot of 19 year olds good enough to play NCAA today won't be in the future unless number of NCAA teams expand, which comes down to individual institutions and desire to add a hockey program which requires money and clearing through some things like Title IX.

Although, any kid that isn't able to make and stick on an NCAA roster at 19 is probably a longshot at that point. Either a never was, or a kid that's heavily trending bust.

 

[Corso]

I think we're talking about two different groups of players here.
I fully agree, the majority of *all CHLers* would be best served by further developing in the NCAA. It's a more natural, incremental step, and I'm very curious to see if this change enables more late bloomers. I've never fully believed the whole "the cream will rise, if a player has it he will make it" stance, decisions, timing, circumstance- not all players become the best they can be.

But if we're talking about legitimate prospects- it's very rare that a CHL grad on the NHL track isn't AHL ready at U21. If a player isn't it's a major knock against their viability- hence there being so few NHLer's that touch ECHL ice or play an OA season. Many of them are also ready at U20 but not allowed, as evidenced by their peers (who are allowed based on technicality) succeeding, and by they themselves succeeding during end of year ATO's/ call ups.

So three groups of CHL grads from the status quo
The non-prospects ->Guys who simply aren't pro ready after full junior eligibility.
The fringe prospects -> guys that will have some sort of pro career if they want it, but would be better served using the NCAA to develop before going pro (previously orphaned by the rules and left to sink or swim.)
The legitimate prospects -> guys who are definitely pro ready at U21, with a lot being ready earlier but held back by the CHL/NHL agreement

We've already seen an absolute avalanche of groups A and B going to NCAA after graduating. That will continue, and the NCAA will be stronger for it. The Question, how many of the group B "fringe" guys are ready for the NCAA (what the NCAA will become when it's full of CHL grads)/ too good for the CHL prior to their OA year?

But the battleground is the legitimate prospects- a pool that will likely get larger as more players enter the CHL and maintain their NCAA eligibility. If the CHL/NHL agreement stays as is, the NCAA is going to clean up here. If the CHL adapts- I don't think see much change from what we've seen this year. High end late born's is one area I think the NCAA will make huge gains on regardless. A guy like McKenna that would be a top 3 pick and challenge for an NHL roster spot in his U19 if he were born 3 months earlier has nothing to gain with a 3rd CHL season.

Nice summation. It is group B "the fringe prospects" that will most benefit from this rule change. These are the type of players that need the extra runway afforded by the NCAA route. More pro level players will be minted because of this.

 

[WarriorofTime]

yup the majority of the NHL draft(1st round at least) will be mostly CHL and mostly developed in the CHL but hey if the NCAA can claim some 1 and dones as they "developed" them so be it

"Development" is very fluid as players go a whole bunch of places, and if they are very good likely would have done well anywhere.... the pyramid is mostly filled with everyone that came into contact with future NHL players jumping up and down to say "look at me, I developed them!" as though players are created in a laboratory.

 

[2Mototik2]

I think earlier when I checked there were more NCAA rookies in the playoffs than CHL. I wonder what percent of rookies the last three years were NCAA vs CHL knowing the NCAA number is only going to rise with the cutover. And the CHL number will rise too.

We can start to track this:
NHL players by CHL only
NHL players by NCAA only
NHL players with equal number of CHL/NCAA seasons
NHL players with more NCAA seasons than CHL
Vice versa

I kind of think these debate about numbers should be eventually put to bed because it's going to end up being the same group of players and I think maybe comes out in the wash regarding the players who eventually make it to the NHL (however, I do think the likelihood of a future NHLer playing more seasons in the NCAA than the CHL isn't going to be super high).

But if we're talking about legitimate prospects- it's very rare that a CHL grad on the NHL track isn't AHL ready at U21. If a player isn't it's a major knock against their viability- hence there being so few NHLer's that touch ECHL ice or play an OA season. Many of them are also ready at U20 but not allowed, as evidenced by their peers (who are allowed based on technicality) succeeding, and by they themselves succeeding during end of year ATO's/ call ups.

So three groups of CHL grads from the status quo
The non-prospects ->Guys who simply aren't pro ready after full junior eligibility.
The fringe prospects -> guys that will have some sort of pro career if they want it, but would be better served using the NCAA to develop before going pro (previously orphaned by the rules and left to sink or swim.)
The legitimate prospects -> guys who are definitely pro ready at U21, with a lot being ready earlier but held back by the CHL/NHL agreement

We've already seen an absolute avalanche of groups A and B going to NCAA after graduating. That will continue, and the NCAA will be stronger for it. The Question, how many of the group B "fringe" guys are ready for the NCAA (what the NCAA will become when it's full of CHL grads)/ too good for the CHL prior to their OA year?

But the battleground is the legitimate prospects- a pool that will likely get larger as more players enter the CHL and maintain their NCAA eligibility. If the CHL/NHL agreement stays as is, the NCAA is going to clean up here. If the CHL adapts- I don't think see much change from what we've seen this year. High end late born's is one area I think the NCAA will make huge gains on regardless. A guy like McKenna that would be a top 3 pick and challenge for an NHL roster spot in his U19 if he were born 3 months earlier has nothing to gain with a 3rd CHL season.

I do agree with a lot of this, especially the general player groups, but I'll keep banging the drum that people can't keep viewing all these CHL commits as future NHL players who are choosing the "NCAA over the CHL" when it's really many are choosing "NCAA over USports". You mention the non-prospects as "guys who simply aren't pro ready after full junior eligibility" and a large portion of those players will never be pro ready, which is totally okay.

 

[landy92mack29]

 

[Blue and Green]

Guys have gone through CHL, guys have gone through D1, they make the NHL through either path. I don't think it matters much in most cases. I just found out it interesting that some people were downplaying the AHL which is the final and most challenging step, and is encountered by the majority of NHLers regardless of whether they went through CHL or D1.

When we're talking about pro prospects, are we talking about NHL prospects or pro of any kind? Because the ECHL is loaded with former four-year D1 guys. This is the roster of the Toledo Walleyes who won the ECHL's Central Division and now are in the final series of the Kelly Cup playoffs. I'm listing their top 15 scorers-- 13 of them played full careers in D1.

Brandon Hawkins: two years at Bowling Green, two years at Northeastern
Mitch Lewandowski: five years at Michigan Tech
Tyler Spezia: four years at Bowling Green
Sam Craggs: five years at Bowling Green
Jason Smereck: OHLer
Trenton Bliss: four years at Michigan Tech
Brandon Kruse: four years at Bowling Green, one year at Boston College
Colin Swoyer: four years at Michigan Tech
Carson Bantle: one year at Michigan Tech, three years at Wisconsin
Griffin Ness: four years at North Dakota
Casey Dornbach: three years at Harvard, one year at Denver
Conlan Keenan: four years in D3
Nolan Moyle: five years at Michigan
Brendon Michaelian: three years at Robert Morris, one year at Ferris St, one year at Mercyhurst
Dalton Messina: five years at Ohio St

 

[Corso]

I do agree with a lot of this, especially the general player groups, but I'll keep banging the drum that people can't keep viewing all these CHL commits as future NHL players who are choosing the "NCAA over the CHL" when it's really many are choosing "NCAA over USports". You mention the non-prospects as "guys who simply aren't pro ready after full junior eligibility" and a large portion of those players will never be pro ready, which is totally okay.

I think it's hard for some to wrap their minds around this concept because it has been CHL vs NCAA forever on these boards. It is an entirely different structure now and some legitimate pro prospects will use the NCAA path from the CHL to the pros and others will simply skip college all together.

 

[Corso]

Guys have gone through CHL, guys have gone through D1, they make the NHL through either path. I don't think it matters much in most cases. I just found out it interesting that some people were downplaying the AHL which is the final and most challenging step, and is encountered by the majority of NHLers regardless of whether they went through CHL or D1.

I agree wholeheartedly, most players will still do time in the AHL before the NHL.

 

[Kingpin794]

People rightfully mention the loss of some top end guys and OA's but the CHL is also going to raise the level of what an average 3rd or 4th liner is. The overall quality shouldn't drop at all. Star power, sure. But guys that stick around aren't going to have a less competitive league to develop in.

 

[Corso]

People rightfully mention the loss of some top end guys and OA's but the CHL is also going to raise the level of what an average 3rd or 4th liner is. The overall quality shouldn't drop at all. Star power, sure. But guys that stick around aren't going to have a less competitive league to develop in.

I do not believe there will be too many arguments against the fact that the CHL is where a significant majority of the best 16, 17, and 18-year-olds will be found. So yes, the depth of overall talent will certainly increase. The age, however, will most likely decrease.

 

[Kingpin794]

I do not believe there will be too many arguments against the fact that the CHL is where a significant majority of the best 16, 17, and 18-year-olds will be found. So yes, the depth of overall talent will certainly increase. The age, however, will most likely decrease.

I'd wonder by how much though. Because the USHL has alot of their 19/20 year olds leave and the average age of teams is right about the same as the CHL.

 

[Boonk]

People rightfully mention the loss of some top end guys and OA's but the CHL is also going to raise the level of what an average 3rd or 4th liner is. The overall quality shouldn't drop at all. Star power, sure. But guys that stick around aren't going to have a less competitive league to develop in.

A lot of younger and older players stuck in lower tier 2 CJHL Jr. A leagues will be able to play for those spots and theyre all really good junior players. People forget how deep and talented the minor and junior hockey depth is in Canada. Conversely, if the better older CHL players are taking up D1 spots and staying 2-5 yrs, especially for the big schools and programs, making a D1 roster will be harder for regular 18-20 year old players who arent elite junior prospects.

 

[Corso]

I'd wonder by how much though. Because the USHL has alot of their 19/20 year olds leave and the average age of teams is right about the same as the CHL.

Possibly but I think that those better 17 and 18 year olds may squeeze some of the older players, who haven't moved on to the pros or college, out.

 

[2Mototik2]

I think it's hard for some to wrap their minds around this concept because it has been CHL vs NCAA forever on these boards. It is an entirely different structure now and some legitimate pro prospects will use the NCAA path from the CHL to the pros and others will simply skip college all together.

And others will just play out their college eligibility, get a degree, and then move on to the next non-hockey chapter in their lives like they currently do/did with USports because their pro prospects wouldn't change regardless of where they went for university.

I'm not trying to knock any of those players, but I'm just trying to offer a reminder for onlookers in this new world where the NCAA is an option for CHLers.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I think it's hard for some to wrap their minds around this concept because it has been CHL vs NCAA forever on these boards. It is an entirely different structure now and some legitimate pro prospects will use the NCAA path from the CHL to the pros and others will simply skip college all together.

Also people ought to realize that not every kid is going to play CHL prior to NCAA. If USA is still getting its top players into the NTDP (I recall a lot of confident boasting from Corso and his all-encompassing "sources" that all the top 09s wanted to play CHL, and then the selection camp happened and the NTDP... got every player it wanted) and the ones anyone has heard of by the end are still good enough to go straight from NTDP to NCAA without a stopover then you probably won't see oodles of elite American talent in CHL (and while people will continue to re-post every NTDP Cut/not invited to tryout American kid that signs in CHL and upselling their games, the overall impact will likely need some to run through the marginal effect, as there always had been a good chunk of American players in CHL even prior to NCAA eligibility changes). The Canadian kid that plays USHL/BCHL should become less common of course, but in terms of overall impact, the hyper zoomed out level that looks at the 1-2 big name kid a year isn't going to change much of the day in and out when there are 60 CHL teams.

 

[Corso]

Also people ought to realize that not every kid is going to play CHL prior to NCAA. If USA is still getting its top players into the NTDP (I recall a lot of confident boasting from Corso and his all-encompassing "sources" that all the top 09s wanted to play CHL, and then the selection camp happened and the NTDP... got every player it wanted) and the ones anyone has heard of by the end are still good enough to go straight from NTDP to NCAA without a stopover then you probably won't see oodles of elite American talent in CHL (and while people will continue to re-post every NTDP Cut/not invited to tryout American kid that signs in CHL and upselling their games, the overall impact will likely need some to run through the marginal effect, as there always had been a good chunk of American players in CHL even prior to NCAA eligibility changes). The Canadian kid that plays USHL/BCHL should become less common of course, but in terms of overall impact, the hyper zoomed out level that looks at the 1-2 big name kid a year isn't going to change much of the day in and out when there are 60 CHL teams.

I have kept you on ignore, but I still check in from time to time, as I (rightfully) surmised that you often quote me. I'm glad to see that you still appreciate my all encompassing sources but I notice that you continue to contribute very little to the discussion.



Let's revisit this next fall regarding the number of American players in the CHL, and then again in two years, particularly focusing on the number of Americans drafted from the CHL. We will compare these figures to those from the previous ten years to gain a clear understanding of how many players originated from the USHL and the NTDP. I will then graciously accept your congratulatory remarks when I am proven correct.

 

[LemonSauceD]

I don’t know if this has been answered before, but for example, Anthony Romani, who was an overwger draft pick last year, will be playing college next year. Normally after 2-3 years an unsigned prospect becomes a UFA. Does this still apply to him since he was drafted as a CHL’er? Or does the 4 year college UFA thing override that.

 

[Corso]

And others will just play out their college eligibility, get a degree, and then move on to the next non-hockey chapter in their lives like they currently do/did with USports because their pro prospects wouldn't change regardless of where they went for university.

I'm not trying to knock any of those players, but I'm just trying to offer a reminder for onlookers in this new world where the NCAA is an option for CHLers.

As they always have. I don't believe that the majority of us here believe that every CHL to NCAA commit is a future pro player. What has some of us excited is the better development opportunity for more late bloomers. I honestly think this will have a positive impact all the way up to the NHL level.

 

[Blue and Green]

Also people ought to realize that not every kid is going to play CHL prior to NCAA. If USA is still getting its top players into the NTDP (I recall a lot of confident boasting from Corso and his all-encompassing "sources" that all the top 09s wanted to play CHL, and then the selection camp happened and the NTDP... got every player it wanted) and the ones anyone has heard of by the end are still good enough to go straight from NTDP to NCAA without a stopover then you probably won't see oodles of elite American talent in CHL (and while people will continue to re-post every NTDP Cut/not invited to tryout American kid that signs in CHL and upselling their games, the overall impact will likely need some to run through the marginal effect, as there always had been a good chunk of American players in CHL even prior to NCAA eligibility changes). The Canadian kid that plays USHL/BCHL should become less common of course, but in terms of overall impact, the hyper zoomed out level that looks at the 1-2 big name kid a year isn't going to change much of the day in and out when there are 60 CHL teams.

30% of D1 players this past season were Canadians, i.e., Canadians who had avoided the CHL to maintain their NCAA eligibility. There's not much reason why most of those guys wouldn't play CHL now and they are going to make a real difference. To talk about the NTDP is to miss the main point. It's about Canadians much more than Americans. And even when it comes to Americans, there actually hasn't been nearly as many American CHLers in the past decade compared to the preceding decade, and already the change in that matter is obvious.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I have kept you on ignore, but I still check in from time to time, as I (rightfully) surmised that you often quote me. I'm glad to see that you still appreciate my all encompassing sources but I notice that you continue to contribute very little to the discussion.



Let's revisit this next fall regarding the number of American players in the CHL, and then again in two years, particularly focusing on the number of Americans drafted from the CHL. We will compare these figures to those from the previous ten years to gain a clear understanding of how many players originated from the USHL and the NTDP. I will then graciously accept your congratulatory remarks when I am proven correct.

Nobody is denying you probably see a greater number of Americans in CHL but people also forget ten years ago you had a bunch of Americans in CHL and even now still have a decent chunk. It’ll likely just look more similar to ten years ago. When you have like 250 Minnesota kids playing ncaa hockey, indeed will see how many previously will have played WHL. Posting any time one signs and saying “see look I was right, all these kids just want to be whl players” is certainly a lot of premature gloating about an uncertain future.

 

[WarriorofTime]

30% of D1 players this past season were Canadians, i.e., Canadians who had avoided the CHL to maintain their NCAA eligibility. There's not much reason why most of those guys wouldn't play CHL now and they are going to make a real difference. To talk about the NTDP is to miss the main point. It's about Canadians much more than Americans. And even when it comes to Americans, there actually hasn't been nearly as many American CHLers in the past decade compared to the preceding decade, and already the change in that matter is obvious.

The talk of parallel paths prior to ncaa as we hit a point upcoming five years when the junior age Canadian and American players will soon be close to equal. Of course Canadians should likely opt for their own domestic pathway.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don’t know if this has been answered before, but for example, Anthony Romani, who was an overwger draft pick last year, will be playing college next year. Normally after 2-3 years an unsigned prospect becomes a UFA. Does this still apply to him since he was drafted as a CHL’er? Or does the 4 year college UFA thing override that.

Still unclear. Likely will have rights tolled as nhl teams won’t want an easy way for their reserve list prospects with an option to hide out in college for only a season or two and become UFAs. Need is balanced against the ability for a player the drafting team doesn’t want to come off a reserve list and find a team that wants him when they turn pro, but if their amateur path is continuing, likely no reason they wouldn’t be allowed to remain on reserve list longer.

 

[Takuto Maruki]

This really just underlines how much of Canadian hockey media have no real concept of NIL other then 'paying athletes' (granted, it's such a moving target that the meaning changes almost daily, and people who have their finger on the pulse don't even know half the time) and think that D1 hockey players can benefit. It was painfully obvious when Zach Edey was unable to benefit from NIL at Purdue, and yet they simply ignore it this time around because it happens to be our boys going down en masse.

And considering the amount of saber rattling the Trump administration has been making towards punishing international students, it's only a matter of time before they turn their guns to the relatively easy target of international athletes in the NCAA system taking away roster spots from deserving American students, especially in D1 hockey. Already seen reports of Texas Republicans trying to put caps on international student athletes on tennis and golf rosters which are chock a block with them. Then we'll see this entire free market come to a hard stop.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Cole Reschny (2007, WHL, Victoria Royals, projected mid to late 1st rounder for the 2025 Draft) commits to North Dakota!

 

[MTU34]

Delete I got beat to it