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CHL Can Now Play NCAA - Changes Everything

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Hockeyville USA said:
Or whoever drafts Misa (Boston the most notable possibility) could tell Misa, "We'd prefer you go to the NCAA for a year, then we'll sign you".
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Sure that's possible as we are literally in uncharted territory here but I still don't see huge numbers of draft eligible guys going to the NCAA, lots of 20 and 21 year olds have already committed.

But time will tell I guess.
 
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Also not sure it will be crazy wild this year because i am not sure how many teams have invested the time in chasing the high end chl guys likee michigan has. Michigan obviously only has so many spots, but if they are successful getting them and the players have a good experience, i have to imagine to imagine it will turn into all out war for high end chl guys in the following years. Not every school is going have the pull for high end chl guys though and therefore may not be interested in putting so many resources into recruiting them.
 
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wetcoast said:
A guy like Misa can sign and even play a trial then go to the CHL if not ready, that option doesn't exist for the NCAA.
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When you go NCAA, you can play out a whole season, hopefully make an NCAA tournament run and then when your season ends you sign an NHL Contract, jump right into NHL games at the end of the year and burn a year. Kid like Lane Hutson burned a year at the end of 2023-24 and is already eligible for an extension that would kick in 2026-27. Had he been a CHL kid, he would have been slide for 2023-24 and in Year 1 of ELC this year and not eligible for an extension until after 2025-26. So NCAA potentially gives you a faster pathway to making more money while essentially remaining amateur same time.

Hutson's two pathways, drafted 2022. One he goes to BU, other he signs an ELC.

2022-23: NCAA Freshman (not under contract) vs. OHL Age 18 (ELC Slide)
2023-24: NCAA Sophomore (not under contract but...) PLUS burn year with two end of year NHL games vs. training camp/maybe 2 NHL games to start year then OHL Age 19 (ELC Slide)
2024-25: ELC Year 2 vs. ELC Year 1
2025-26: (eligible for extension prior to season) ELC Year 3 vs. ELC Year 2
2026-27: Extension kicks in vs. (eligible for extension prior to season) ELC Year 3
2027-28: Extension Year 2 vs. Extension Year 1
etc. etc.
 
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wetcoast said:
Except literally no one was doing this all or nothing thing it's more about percentages and most high end younger CHL types will probably stay in the CHL.

Even if the CBA changes I'm not sure this percentage will change much.

A guy like Misa can sign and even play a trial then go to the CHL if not ready, that option doesn't exist for the NCAA.
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We will see who is right but like you, I do not foresee a flood of high end CHLers forgoing their ELCs to play a year or two in the NCAA. Some certainly will but most will take that contract at the first opportunity.
 
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Corso said:
We will see who is right but like you, I do not foresee a flood of high end CHLers forgoing their ELCs to play a year or two in the NCAA. Some certainly will but most will take that contract at the first opportunity.
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Plenty of teams might decide "We're not giving you the ELC right away, go to the NCAA and develop for a year or two, then we'll sign you."
 
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wetcoast said:
Except literally no one was doing this all or nothing thing it's more about percentages and most high end younger CHL types will probably stay in the CHL.

Even if the CBA changes I'm not sure this percentage will change much.

A guy like Misa can sign and even play a trial then go to the CHL if not ready, that option doesn't exist for the NCAA.
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Nah, this is what real speculation was (citing a hypothetical "new era" example involving a real player that went NCAA route) a few months ago:

Fast forward to today. Hage no longer has to make the decision between playing in the OHL or the NCAA. He now has the opportunity to do both so he gladly reports to Kitchener, with a verbal commitment in hand from Michigan. The OHL, however, is not the USHL and Kitchener is certainly not Chicago. He is in an environment that has a completely different culture, one that is focused first and foremost on advancing to the pro game.

He plays two years for the Rangers, enjoying a rabid fan base. with well over 5k fans coming to see him every home game and a ton of media attention to go along with it (unlike what he experienced playing for the Steel and the USHL where he played in an empty arena). The coaching staff at Kitchener is top notch and he has access to all the bells and whistles expected for high end players. He is still thinking about playing for Michigan though but wants to see how the draft goes. He's drafted 21st overall by his favorite NHL team and now he has a decsion to make. Unlike what his USHL club was telling him, Kitchener is urging him to hold off on going to Michigan just yet. They are telling him, hey why don't you attend the Habs rookie camp and see how that goes. He does so and really enjoys it. The Rangers then tell him, hey why enroll in school just yet, you have a great thing going here so why don't you attend the main camp and who knows, maybe you might even get to play some games with the big club and just remember we will still be here waiting for you.
Let's also say that by now the CHL-NHL agreement has changed, allowing 18 year old players the opportunity to play at least part of the year in the AHL. So Kitchener and his agent say, hey why not sign, earn a nice signing bonus, play a bit in the AHL and by the time you come back to us, we will hand you the captaincy. So Hage does just that and never makes it to Michigan.

Now who knows, maybe Hage does make it to Michigan but there is now a distinct possibility that he doesn't because he is playing in a league that does not see itself nor want to be a feeder system to the NCAA. What the CHL wants above all else, is for the NCAA to be nothing more than a fall back option.
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Hockeyville USA said:
Plenty of teams might decide "We're not giving you the ELC right away, go to the NCAA and develop for a year or two, then we'll sign you."
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Yes, a distinct possibility, especially those drafted in the 3rd round or lower....and many of those players will wait until 19 or 20 to play in the NCAA

Take a case like Humphreys....a drafted player who left Michigan for more playing time. Had every intention of going back to college for his 19 year old season but liked what Kitchener had to offer and decided to stay an extra year....and who knows after that

 
Corso said:
Yes, a distinct possibility, especially those drafted in the 3rd round or lower....and many of those players will wait until 19 or 20 to play in the NCAA

Take a case like Humphreys....a drafted player who left Michigan for more playing time. Had every intention of going back to college for his 19 year old season but liked what Kitchener had to offer and decided to stay an extra year....and who knows after that

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Yeah makes sense that a 7th round pick can't make the NCAA team would use junior to develop further, as junior will largely be a feeder to NCAA. If a guy isn't ready for NCAA he will likely head back to the OHL for more development. Some guys will be better off playing top line against kids rather than getting buried at the end of the NCAA, but you'd expect a lot of the higher end guys to be ready to make a jump to NCAA as teenagers. You'll definitely see a lot more fluidity between junior and ncaa.
 
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goavsblue8 said:
Michigan hockey insiders have been saying they do too and their actions suggest they do as well. Michigan is after a ton of the high end guys and from what I've heard one of the pitches and attractions is building a super team in ann arbor.
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Lol super team thats cute. No such thing under that Douschenozzle Naruato. Joke of a coach. They would go there for the $$ and "prestige" of michigan
 
Corso said:
Yes, a distinct possibility, especially those drafted in the 3rd round or lower....and many of those players will wait until 19 or 20 to play in the NCAA

Take a case like Humphreys....a drafted player who left Michigan for more playing time. Had every intention of going back to college for his 19 year old season but liked what Kitchener had to offer and decided to stay an extra year....and who knows after that

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It used to be with college players, NHL teams would just sign them asap. But with the improvement in competition, coaching, the access to elite strength training, more and more teams are becoming quite comfortable with the two-years in the NCAA and then jump straight to the NHL following the NCAA season model for 1st round picks.

After the 19/20 season both of Wisconsin's freshman 1st round picks from the year before (Turcotte and Caufield) wanted to leave school and sign. The Kings signed Turcotte and he wasted away in the AHL, played 0 NHL games, didn't burn a year off his contract. Montreal told Caufield to go back to school, where he won the Hobey Baker, led the team to a Big-10 championship, immediately signed with the Habs, burned a year off his contract and made significant contributions to a team that went to the Stanley Cup Final. If this had been 15 years ago, there is no chance Montreal wouldn't have signed Caufield and put him in the AHL, even at 19.

One thing that has not been discussed here, what will the rules be for the CHL defector when it comes to joining NHL teams after the season? Wetcoast mentioned the 9 game trial at the beginning of the year for CHL players as a CHL benefit, but one massive benefit that NCAA players have that (many) CHL players don't, is the ability to join their NHL teams for the end of the year and post-season. We have seen this with Makar, Caufield, L Hughes, Q Hughes, Knies, Faber, McAvoy and many others do this, with some becoming legit contributors to NHL playoff teams. I don't know, I'd personally rather have access to a guy at the end of the season and playoffs, rather than 9 games in October. My question is do guys like Lindstrom and Misa have the ability to join their NHL team following their NCAA season, or would they be unable to sign until their CHL teams were eliminated from post-season play?

And as far as Humphreys, it worked out well for him, but he is a perfect example the large difference in competition level (due to age) between the NCAA and CHL. When a player who was barely playing for a very average NCAA team (which UM was this season) leaves and becomes the best offensive player (by PPG) for a team with Memorial Cup aspirations, well what else can you draw from that other than the competition level is not really close? Not talking about talent, the CHL has a ton of talent, but age matters a lot. What would Michael Hage (a good but not great college player) have done if he had been the one who left? And this isn't just some one-off fluke, basically every player who has left their college teams to play in the CHL, has dominated the CHL significantly more than they did the NCAA. This is going to be looked at by NHL GM's, when it comes to where a player is going to be challenged more, and what spot puts the player in the best spot to play in the NHL the next season.

Just off the top of my head some of the guys who have made the NCAA to CHL jump, others can feel free to add more.

Christian Humphreys
Charlie Coyle
Kiefer Bellows
Matt Foy
Tyson Jugnauth
Robbie Czarnik
Duncan Keith
Mike Comrie
 
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Hockeyville USA said:
Well then that means you'd lose guys early regardless. Like I've said, CHL backers will have to get used to the CHL not being at the top of the development pyramid anymore. Maybe it still will be for the handful of elite forwards, but unlikely you'll see many elite defensemen and goalies bypass the NCAA going forward.
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no they'd just allow players to start the year in the AHL but have to be returned to the CHL or be called up to the NHL by a certain date(have heard December 1st)
 
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Herby said:
Just off the top of my head some of the guys who have made the NCAA to CHL jump, others can feel free to add more.

Christian Humphreys
Charlie Coyle
Kiefer Bellows
Matt Foy
Tyson Jugnauth
Robbie Czarnik
Duncan Keith
Mike Comrie
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Tyler Boucher and Jeremy Bracco were a couple of well touted NCAA Fails that went to the OHL in recent years. Didn't really work out for either at the pro level. Coyle was a success, but that was 13 years ago. Going way back in the day, Duncan Keith had something weird where he left school to sign a CHL deal, wanted to go back prior to playing in the WHL but wasn't allowed so he did end up playing in the Dub. Michigan State Sophomore Defenseman Duncan Keith Ruled Ineligible - Michigan State University Athletics
 
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landy92mack29 said:
no they'd just allow players to start the year in the AHL but have to be returned to the CHL or be called up to the NHL by a certain date(have heard December 1st)
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This is some compromise the CHL is going to push? I've been on this forum for two decades, and every-time the discussion of modifying the CHL/NHL agreement is brought up, any changes would supposedly be the death knell for the CHL's business model. Now you guys are open and supporting to the idea of 18/19 year olds not reporting to the teams until December? What happened to the death of the business model? Why would the NHL agree to this? Why won't they push to just lower the AHL age to 19 and be done with it?

Or why not just encourage the players to go NCAA teams, where the level of play is older (and thus higher) and then have the ability to sign them at anytime you wanted? Which nobody seems to mention, but realistically is possible (see Kyle Okposo). Why is the NHL going to accommodate the CHL when the NHL holds all the cards?

We saw the scenario you seem to want play out with Brandt Clarke, who played NHL games and AHL conditioning assignments, and then went back to junior after the WJC in his age 19 season. You think that year was good for his development? It sure seems that similar caliber defenseman who spent their age 19 season in college have more easily made the jump to being successful pros.
 
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Herby said:
I don't know about "very wrong", you are implying that all players would prefer that route, and I can tell you with 100% certainty that is not the case.

Matty Beniers, Owen Power, Zach Werenski, Brock Faber, Matthew Knies are just a few of the players who passed over signing (and likely being in the AHL) and choosing instead to return to school for another year. None of those players ended up spending a second in the AHL.

But you'll probably just laugh at this, instead of having a discussion, so....
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they were already in the NCAA, this new change would apply only to CHLers and of the ones I know/have talked to they have all preferred being able to play in the AHL vs NCAA
 
Herby said:
I don't know about "very wrong", you are implying that all players would prefer that route, and I can tell you with 100% certainty that is not the case.

Matty Beniers, Owen Power, Zach Werenski, Brock Faber, Matthew Knies are just a few of the players who passed over signing (and likely being in the AHL) and choosing instead to return to school for another year. None of those players ended up spending a second in the AHL.

But you'll probably just laugh at this, instead of having a discussion, so....
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I think age 18-21 they'd prefer NCAA, once you hit a certain age or have played 3 seasons, then I think you're ready to make a jump to pro even if it means AHL because you kinda get moving on your pro career that point.

Maybe some of the Canadian guys that never had interest in NCAA will want to go AHL. Certainly true for European guys (like Levshunov who left Michigan State knowing he'd spend most of this season in AHL).
 
WarriorofTime said:
Lindstrom and Mews commitments appear to have shaken the foundations of people that were so boldly proclaiming "CHL will get every good player, even ones that initially wanted to go NCAA will sign their ELCs and only 20 year olds that don't get offered pro hockey contracts will play in the NCAA moving forward"
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Literally nobody has said anything remotely like this. And if anything the fact that a whopping 2 drafted/higher-profile draft eligible players have announced commitments with most of the CHL players' seasons now finished is showing something in the exact opposite direction.

Mews has been a known thing for months.
 
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WarriorofTime said:
I think age 18-21 they'd prefer NCAA, once you hit a certain age or have played 3 seasons, then I think you're ready to make a jump to pro even if it means AHL because you kinda get moving on your pro career that point.

Maybe some of the Canadian guys that never had interest in NCAA will want to go AHL. Certainly true for European guys (like Levshunov who left Michigan State knowing he'd spend most of this season in AHL).
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Some for sure prefer the AHL, I mentioned Turcotte before and he's another example.

But the AHL route is not one that all players want to take, and listening to interviews from players and having personally talked to some players myself over the years, many definitely prefer to play college rather than dealing with the grueling travel and difficult lifestyle that comes with the AHL, especially when it comes with the likelihood of no NHL games. You mentioned Levshunov, and I think he was promised a certain amount of NHL games, and he is going to get 20 game-checks, he was also a dominant NCAA player as a freshman. I always say if you are dominant as an 18yo freshman and you want to go, you should. That is the difference between him and guys like Turcotte, too.

You can find plenty of hockey players who will tell you they wish they had gone back to school for another year, I don't think you will find any who will say, "I wish I had left school a year earlier than I did to play a season in Bakersfield, Grand Rapids or Rockford"
 
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MS said:
Literally nobody has said anything remotely like this. And if anything the fact that a whopping 2 drafted/higher-profile draft eligible players have announced commitments with most of the CHL players' seasons now finished is showing something in the exact opposite direction.

Mews has been a known thing for months.
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See Post #2358. Literally all of those things were speculated

1) NCAA-bound player happily signs with OHL (first clause)
2) OHL team will encourage player to sign their ELC (second clause)
3) CHL will push to make NCAA nothing more than a fallback option (third clause)

This was discussed for months. Just because it's not bearing fruition doesn't mean we should now pretend like it was never a thing being discussed. That's how goal posts get moved. Not here for a victory lap, but we can already see discussion has now shifted to what "a majority" drafted already out of a CHL league might do.
 
WarriorofTime said:
See Post #2358. Literally all of those things were speculated

1) NCAA-bound player happily signs with OHL (first clause)
2) OHL team will encourage player to sign their ELC (second clause)
3) CHL will push to make NCAA nothing more than a fallback option (third clause)

This was discussed for months. Just because it's not bearing fruition doesn't mean we should now pretend like it was never a thing being discussed. That's how goal posts get moved. Not here for a victory lap, but we can already see discussion has now shifted to what "a majority" drafted already out of a CHL league might do.
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What on earth are you talking about?

Literally nobody ever has said that no players will move to the NCAA.

The NCAA homers were predicting a massive influx of high-profile players to the NCAA when the CHL season ended (like, 50+ players) and literally 1 guy has announced a commitment since his season ended, and that guy has been widely known for months.
 
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It's not about the number overall, it's about the top guys.

If Mckenna, Misa, Martone, and Bear all end up playing NCAA, I think it would be an incredible start for the college game and only grow from there.
 
WarriorofTime said:
When you go NCAA, you can play out a whole season, hopefully make an NCAA tournament run and then when your season ends you sign an NHL Contract, jump right into NHL games at the end of the year and burn a year. Kid like Lane Hutson burned a year at the end of 2023-24 and is already eligible for an extension that would kick in 2026-27. Had he been a CHL kid, he would have been slide for 2023-24 and in Year 1 of ELC this year and not eligible for an extension until after 2025-26. So NCAA potentially gives you a faster pathway to making more money while essentially remaining amateur same time.

Hutson's two pathways, drafted 2022. One he goes to BU, other he signs an ELC.

2022-23: NCAA Freshman (not under contract) vs. OHL Age 18 (ELC Slide)
2023-24: NCAA Sophomore (not under contract but...) PLUS burn year with two end of year NHL games vs. training camp/maybe 2 NHL games to start year then OHL Age 19 (ELC Slide)
2024-25: ELC Year 2 vs. ELC Year 1
2025-26: (eligible for extension prior to season) ELC Year 3 vs. ELC Year 2
2026-27: Extension kicks in vs. (eligible for extension prior to season) ELC Year 3
2027-28: Extension Year 2 vs. Extension Year 1
etc. etc.
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I foresee this also being addressed in the summer to level it out somehow.
 
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