CHL Can Now Play NCAA - Changes Everything

[Hockeyville USA]

Leafs prospect Sam McCue could be a good fit to a mid-tier (not undrafted or released OA, but not a truly high profile guy, just a legitimate NHL prospect developing well) transfer. Late birthday 7th rounder that had a big U20 goal scoring wise, but the Leaf could quite easily prefer to see him come into the A a little more developed (providing he wouldn't reenter the draft for 2026)

If the new CBA states that guys drafted out of the CHLers have a rights holding period of 4 years, this will encourage more teams to send uncommitted players to the NCAA for at least a year or two years to develop further.

 

[MS]

There's a projected top 20 pick in the 2025 Draft who is a Michigan silent commit. The NCAA will certainly get theirs as you've alluded to. Several high end CHLers will certainly sign as @MS has stated, but many will go to the NCAA for a year or two before turning pro.

As a WHL follower I'll be surprised if it's more than 5 or so 2006 or 2007 born WHL players leaving plus a few 2005s like Tulk, and then they'll be getting some Alex Weirmaiers back on the flipside to offset part of that.

There isn't going to be 30 or 40 guys bolting which is what some people here seem to be implying.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

As a WHL follower I'll be surprised if it's more than 5 or so 2006 or 2007 born WHL players leaving plus a few 2005s like Tulk, and then they'll be getting some Alex Weirmaiers back on the flipside to offset part of that.

There isn't going to be 30 or 40 guys bolting which is what some people here seem to be implying.

Roger McQueen
Jackson Smith
Lynden Lakovic
Carter Bear
Ben Kindel
Cameron Schmidt
Josh Ravensbergen
Cole Reschny
Braeden Cootes
Nathan Behm
Blake Fiddler
Lukas Sawchyn
Owen Martin
Bryce Pickford
Jordan Gavin
Tommy Lafreniere
Peyton Kettles
Jonas Woo
Matthew Gard
Will Sharpe
Aaron Obobaifo
Burke Hood
Anders Miller
Reese Hamilton
Jayden Kraus

There's 25 Dub guys who are prominent draft eligibles for 2025, let's see how many sign and are CHL only to pro and how many go to the NCAA at some point.

 

[MS]

Roger McQueen
Jackson Smith
Lynden Lakovic
Carter Bear
Ben Kindel
Cameron Schmidt
Josh Ravensbergen
Cole Reschny
Braeden Cootes
Nathan Behm
Blake Fiddler
Lukas Sawchyn
Owen Martin
Bryce Pickford
Jordan Gavin
Tommy Lafreniere
Peyton Kettles
Jonas Woo
Matthew Gard
Will Sharpe
Aaron Obobaifo
Burke Hood
Anders Miller
Reese Hamilton
Jayden Kraus

There's 25 Dub guys who are prominent draft eligibles for 2025, let's see how many sign and are CHL only to pro and how many go to the NCAA at some point.

Most of these guys are going to sign ELCs and stay in the WHL. Again, this will continue to be the general path - get your ELC sorted, get your signing bonus, get to an NHL training camp. Guys who delay that process will be the exception, not the rule.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Most of these guys are going to sign ELCs and stay in the WHL. Again, this will continue to be the general path - get your ELC sorted, get your signing bonus, get to an NHL training camp. Guys who delay that process will be the exception, not the rule.

We will see what happens with the rule changes. I could easily see Roger McQueen at Michigan or North Dakota for example

 

[MS]

We will see what happens with the rule changes. I could easily see Roger McQueen at Michigan or North Dakota for example

And again, I'm sure some guys will. It won't be en masse.

And also again, I suspect there will be a lot of soft commits that vanish into nothing once an NHL team tells the player that they want them at training camp and are putting an ELC and signing bonus in front of them.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

And again, I'm sure some guys will. It won't be en masse.

And also again, I suspect there will be a lot of soft commits that vanish into nothing once an NHL team tells the player that they want them at training camp and are putting an ELC and signing bonus in front of them.

You're insinuating that basically no one of note will go to the NCAA and that's simply unrealistic IMHO

 

[MS]

You're insinuating that basically no one of note will go to the NCAA and that's simply unrealistic IMHO

I said no such thing.

I think the odd guy will, primarily guys in non-ideal situations. I think the vast majority will prioritize signing their ELC and getting to NHL training camps.

 

[landy92mack29]

I said no such thing.

I think the odd guy will, primarily guys in non-ideal situations. I think the vast majority will prioritize signing their ELC and getting to NHL training camps.

yup the top end guys will mostly sign elcs and the mid tier guys who would be ahlers at 20 might go ncaa for 1-2 years instead of signing like a Leslie. Then the lower guys will play out their chl years before going NCAA at 21. The only top end guys who I see going CHL-NCAA at 18 were the kids who previously would've went BCHL/USHL like Eli Mckamey but now they'll play 2 years in the much better CHL before going NCAA for 1-2 years potentially. We'll see how the AHL option will play into it also

 

[WarriorofTime]

It's not like they never see a signing bonus if they wait a little on their ELC, lol. The whole the dream being to sign the ELC as the end in and of itself just doesn't feel super realistic. I agree the initial wave of players (like anyone already drafted) which consists of players that signed their CHL agreements before the rule changed, will likely stay towards the path they were always on. Especially since right now NHL teams don't really know what's going to happen with the reserve list until it's all sorted out.

As more time goes by, you probably see more of the CHL Drafted -> NCAA Path. The one super unrealistic scenario is that a bunch of players that would have gone NCAA before now just doesn't go NCAA at all because they make friends, as some have insinuated.

 

[Corso]

I said no such thing.

I think the odd guy will, primarily guys in non-ideal situations. I think the vast majority will prioritize signing their ELC and getting to NHL training camps.

I think you're right but the next CBA, concerning the draft (age and how many rounds) and the ability of all players to play in the AHL at the age of 18 will change a lot of trajectories.

 

[landy92mack29]

Roger McQueen
Jackson Smith
Lynden Lakovic
Carter Bear
Ben Kindel
Cameron Schmidt
Josh Ravensbergen
Cole Reschny
Braeden Cootes
Nathan Behm
Blake Fiddler
Lukas Sawchyn
Owen Martin
Bryce Pickford
Jordan Gavin
Tommy Lafreniere
Peyton Kettles
Jonas Woo
Matthew Gard
Will Sharpe
Aaron Obobaifo
Burke Hood
Anders Miller
Reese Hamilton
Jayden Kraus

There's 25 Dub guys who are prominent draft eligibles for 2025, let's see how many sign and are CHL only to pro and how many go to the NCAA at some point.

I'll say 1 maybe 2 who would be good enough at 20 to turn pro, the rest might go NCAA after CHL because would be a AHL bubble/ECHL level player at 20/21

 

[MS]

And, frankly, it just comes down to numbers.

There are <10 NCAA programs who will represent a real legitimate draw to drafted CHL players. Michigan, Minnesota, UND, Boston U, Boston College, and so on. Drafted players aren’t going to be abandoning the CHL to go to Michigan Tech or Colgate or Nebraska-Omaha. Then a couple of those big programs have a pretty hardcore recruitment policy that means they won’t be targeting CHL players. Then you factor in the limited recruitment spots every year and the guys these teams will be pulling out of the NDTP and the portal and the USHL. Then you factor in the risk of promising multiple spots to soft commits if they don’t show up.

Like, mathematically how many drafted players are possibly going to move? If you think 15 or 20 drafted players are leaving each CHL league … the numbers just don’t work.

Michigan might score a couple big targets. But overall the numbers won’t be massive. They can’t be.

 

[WarriorofTime]

And, frankly, it just comes down to numbers.

There are <10 NCAA programs who will represent a real legitimate draw to drafted CHL players. Michigan, Minnesota, UND, Boston U, Boston College, and so on. Drafted players aren’t going to be abandoning the CHL to go to Michigan Tech or Colgate or Nebraska-Omaha. Then a couple of those big programs have a pretty hardcore recruitment policy that means they won’t be targeting CHL players. Then you factor in the limited recruitment spots every year and the guys these teams will be pulling out of the NDTP and the portal and the USHL. Then you factor in the risk of promising multiple spots to soft commits if they don’t show up.

Like, mathematically how many drafted players are possibly going to move? If you think 15 or 20 drafted players are leaving each CHL league … the numbers just don’t work.

Michigan might score a couple big targets. But overall the numbers won’t be massive. They can’t be.

Anyone drafted in the top 5 rounds will have their share of quality offers. There’s over 60 ncaa programs. Up to the individual player to determine which of any interest them.

 

[Corso]

And, frankly, it just comes down to numbers.

There are <10 NCAA programs who will represent a real legitimate draw to drafted CHL players. Michigan, Minnesota, UND, Boston U, Boston College, and so on. Drafted players aren’t going to be abandoning the CHL to go to Michigan Tech or Colgate or Nebraska-Omaha. Then a couple of those big programs have a pretty hardcore recruitment policy that means they won’t be targeting CHL players. Then you factor in the limited recruitment spots every year and the guys these teams will be pulling out of the NDTP and the portal and the USHL. Then you factor in the risk of promising multiple spots to soft commits if they don’t show up.

Like, mathematically how many drafted players are possibly going to move? If you think 15 or 20 drafted players are leaving each CHL league … the numbers just don’t work.

Michigan might score a couple big targets. But overall the numbers won’t be massive. They can’t be.

For the very elite players yes, no more than 8 programs that they gravitate towards. For the rest, college will be an option but the lure of a pro contract will divert some of them.

 

[MS]

Anyone drafted in the top 5 rounds will have their share of quality offers. There’s over 60 ncaa programs. Up to the individual player to determine which of any interest them.

For the very elite players yes, no more than 8 programs that they gravitate towards. For the rest, college will be an option but the lure of a pro contract will divert some of them.

It’s up to the NHL team probably even than the player. If, in the example the other poster was using, Roger McQueen went to Michigan … an NHL team would probably be fine with that from a developmental perspective, especially given his injury and situation. But if your 2nd or 3rd round pick was suggesting they leave a good CHL program to go to a non-elite NCAA program … that would probably be discouraged on multiple fronts. And honestly most players wouldn’t even be interested, I don’t think. Going to an elite program like Michigan or North Dakota would be interesting and probably some guys will detour that route. But the number of spots available on those elite programs is very limited and nobody is going to be thinking that Northern Michigan is worth forgoing signing an ELC for.

Outside of those 8 or 10 elite programs, everyone else is basically going to be signing CHL overagers, because that’s who they’ll get. And that’s what we’ve seen already to this point.

 

[2Mototik2]

Another point in favour of the CHL-ELC that I think is important to remember is that not every player is academically inclined, especially if they feel they can be in the pros before or as their CHL eligibility ends.

Even if it is just a course load of "Basket Weaving 101" and "Food Tasting 104", there are going to be players who don't want to deal with that for a year or two and/or feel they have a good thing going with their CHL situation.

 

[Favin]

Top 10 in Norris voting last year had 3 CHL players and 3 NCAA players : CLEAR DEVELOPMENTAL ADVANTAGE.

Top 25 forward scorers are 13-1 in favour of the CHL : meh, not much difference.

Your bias might be showing.

__________

As for goalies : goalies are weird, and cyclical. And it only takes 1 or 2 guys to create a 'boon' that seems substantial. 20 years ago everyone was from Quebec. 10 years ago everyone was from Finland. Right now the US is the dominant country.

And things are already shifting back by the looks of it. Past the 1998-born Swayman and Oettinger, there has been very little coming through the NCAA pipeline beyond that, and the 2 of the three best U25 goalies in the NHL this year (Wolf by a mile and Hofer) are all CHL trained. And the runaway best goalie prospect for the 2025 draft is a CHLer and the best goalie prospect this age Canada has produced since Fleury and Price.

Does this mean that NCAA goalies suddenly suck? No, of course not - it's just how it works. Things are cyclical, and all developmental paths are relatively equal when you pull back to the bigger picture over more time with larger sample sizes.

For what its worth, here are average market values and salaries for NCAA and CHL trained dmen (based on the Athletic's data)

CHL (44%) Average Salary $3.62m, Average Market Value $3.88m ($0.26m surplus)
NCAA (39%) Average Salary $3.50m, Average Market Value $3.96m ($0.46m surplus)

So CHL dmen are making more, but are they better? GMs seem to think they they are worth more.


Goalies - look at any list of prospects or U23 and you will find mostly guys from NCAA and Russia.

NCAA path born 1998 and later (CHL path):

2007: Boettiger (Ivankovic)
2006: Yegorv, Hendrickson (George, Gardner, Ravensbergen)
2005: Augustine, Hrabal, Sluknysky, Strahl (Ratzlaff)
2004: Fowler, Gajan
2003: Koskenvuo
2002: Commesso, Sergeyev (Cossa, Kolosov)
2001: Levi, Dobes, Knight (Wolf)
2000: Portillo, Perets (Hofer, Sogaard)
1999: Stevenson
1998: Oettinger, Swayman, Woll (Skinner)

 

[WarriorofTime]

It’s up to the NHL team probably even than the player. If, in the example the other poster was using, Roger McQueen went to Michigan … an NHL team would probably be fine with that from a developmental perspective, especially given his injury and situation. But if your 2nd or 3rd round pick was suggesting they leave a good CHL program to go to a non-elite NCAA program … that would probably be discouraged on multiple fronts. And honestly most players wouldn’t even be interested, I don’t think. Going to an elite program like Michigan or North Dakota would be interesting and probably some guys will detour that route. But the number of spots available on those elite programs is very limited and nobody is going to be thinking that Northern Michigan is worth forgoing signing an ELC for.

Outside of those 8 or 10 elite programs, everyone else is basically going to be signing CHL overagers, because that’s who they’ll get. And that’s what we’ve seen already to this point.

Sorry, I'm not so sure I buy that only 10 NCAA programs will be viewed as satisfactory destinations for NHL teams but all of the 60 CHL teams will be viewed as having relatively equal merit.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Goalies - look at any list of prospects or U23 and you will find mostly guys from NCAA and Russia.

Interesting bit of random (coincidental) trivia is that 2 of the teams in the Frozen Four have a Russian goaltender (they're also the only two Russian goalies in all of NCAA, which again speaks to largely a coincidence, but be interesting to see if more Russian goalies opt for an NCAA path in the future).

 

[Corso]

Another point in favour of the CHL-ELC that I think is important to remember is that not every player is academically inclined, especially if they feel they can be in the pros before or as their CHL eligibility ends.

Even if it is just a course load of "Basket Weaving 101" and "Food Tasting 104", there are going to be players who don't want to deal with that for a year or two and/or feel they have a good thing going with their CHL situation.

This as well and as another poster mentioned, there isn't the cultural attraction of playing college hockey for Canadians and Europeans as there is for American players. The CHL is also a different beast than the USHL or the American development model that pushes players to the NCAA before the pros. They are more than happy to see their O/A go to U.S. colleges (and the money saved by them doing so) but less so concerning younger players. It behooves the CHL to have players sign ELC's rather than go to college because their NHL development money depends on it.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out but we are getting some early hints. The next CBA will really set the table for the next decade or so concerning the amateur pyramid and the preferred developmental model.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Aiden Ziprick (2005, WHL, Moose Jaw Warriors) commits to Bemidji State.

 

[DemidovSaveUs]

Could be understanding this incorrectly, but if you draft a player out of the CHL and he goes to college for two years following without signing, they would re-enter the draft?

 

[Bonin21]

Could be understanding this incorrectly, but if you draft a player out of the CHL and he goes to college for two years following without signing, they would re-enter the draft?

Huh?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Could be understanding this incorrectly, but if you draft a player out of the CHL and he goes to college for two years following without signing, they would re-enter the draft?

I think it'll change in the new/amended CBA. I think everyone drafted will have a 4 year rights holding period (excluding those drafted out of Russia which is still "indefinite"). So if Anaheim drafts Jake O'Brien and steers him to the NCAA for a year or two, they'd still have his rights until 2029 under my hypothetical CBA amendment for the rights holding period