CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[rsteen]

Yea, it makes sense and it’s out there which will put an end for Prep hockey and youth hockey in general . Which means kids need to be in that high end league if they want play juniors and college hockey . If you play Prep - youth hockey you will be playing against lower end kids and college will stop recruiting there . It will happen the following year I think . I think it stinks and love prep hockey because it also prepares you for the classroom when you get to college . All these kids are doing online school which is complete joke but the college hockey coach needs to win so they don’t care .

Yeah this might be bad for the kids' social and academic development to leave home and be 100% hockey focus from potentially the age of 14.

 

[Corso]

At least Glen and USHL trying to do something lol - I’m sure they are in full panic mode right now .

Yeah, I think this is USA Hockey and the USHL response to this seismic shift .....

Problem for the USHL is twofold. One is geography. The OHL and QMJHL are just better geographical fits for both further expansion and player recruitment. The other is what they can offer players. One league offers monthly stipends, educational support staff with private tutors and will pay you to attend college while playing in the league. Which league are you going to choose????

 

[bigdog16]

Yea, it makes sense and it’s out there which will put an end for Prep hockey and youth hockey in general . Which means kids need to be in that high end league if they want play juniors and college hockey . If you play Prep - youth hockey you will be playing against lower end kids and college will stop recruiting there . It will happen the following year I think . I think it stinks and love prep hockey because it also prepares you for the classroom when you get to college . All these kids are doing online school which is complete joke but the college hockey coach needs to win so they don’t care .

Will be interesting to see how a program like Shattuck reacts to this.

 

[MTU34]

Mazden Leslie (2005, WHL, Vancouver Giants) commits to Bowling Green.

Big time add for the Falcons. Dennis Williams continuing to leverage his Dub and Western Canada minor hockey connections to get players to commit. Wouldn't be surprised if Williams and Bowling Green make pushes at even bigger fish coming out of the Dub.

As a Michigan Tech guy I’m officially scared of Bowling Green moving forward. Williams has absolutely killed it. Leslie is probably the best commit in the conference yet

 

[NTDP]

Will be interesting to see how a program like Shattuck reacts to this.

I heard that Morning Cuppa Hockey interview last Friday. I'd have to listen again but it almost sounded like it will still be the top AAA teams just with access to better recruiting at the 15-16 y/o level? Because Hefferan said they'll still have to play some local teams in their general area, but they will compete in big showcases throughout the year (think of the Northeast Pack League right now, or Prep Hockey Conference - which contains Shattuck already).

I could be wrong but that's how I first interpreted it. So this league will bring in already top programs like Mount St. Charles, Honeybaked, Shattuck, Little Caesars, LA Jr Kings, Dallas Stars Elite, Colorado Thunderbirds, etc. and just make them stronger. Or it'll be fresh teams with new names in this new development league. Again, I'm probably wrong on that.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yeah this might be bad for the kids' social and academic development to leave home and be 100% hockey focus from potentially the age of 14.

Yeah I don't love it. Right now, it's Tuesday at 1:30 pm ET, my flo hockey account shows various games going on involving the NCDC, EHL, OJHL. None of these have any people in the crowds, obviously the players aren't in school while these games are going on. It's likely just when the arenas are available. I guess if players are 18-20, it's their choice as adults, but it's not a super ideal system when actual minors start getting more and more funneled into the junior hockey circus.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Carson Birnie (2005, WHL, Calgary Hitmen) commits to Michigan Tech

 

[Corso]

Carson Birnie (2005, WHL, Calgary Hitmen) commits to Michigan Tech

Don't know anything about this player other than his stat line but can we consider him the pro typical U-Sport recruit that is now taking the NCAA path?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Don't know anything about this player other than his stat line but can we consider him the pro typical U-Sport recruit that is now taking the NCAA path?

Typical Dub bottom 6er who gets an NCAA opportunity because of the rule change, yes

 

[Corso]

Typical Dub bottom 6er who gets an NCAA opportunity because of the rule change, yes

And who pushes out that NAHL or AJHL or even BCHL player from that spot. The cascading effects from this rule change; remember when some said it wasn't going to be that big of a deal or have much of an impact

 

[Hockeyville USA]

And who pushes out that NAHL or AJHL or even BCHL player from that spot. The cascading effects from this rule change; remember when some said it wasn't going to be that big of a deal or have much of an impact

Like I said on a previous page months ago, we're going to see a demographic shift in NCAA Hockey, going from currently 62% US & 29% Canadian to somewhere closer to a 45/45 split, the remaining 10% continuing to be European.

 

[Corso]

Like I said on a previous page months ago, we're going to see a demographic shift in NCAA Hockey, going from currently 62% US & 29% Canadian to somewhere closer to a 45/45 split, the remaining 10% continuing to be European.

More than likely.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Like I said on a previous page months ago, we're going to see a demographic shift in NCAA Hockey, going from currently 62% US & 29% Canadian to somewhere closer to a 45/45 split, the remaining 10% continuing to be European.

Europe should lose a bit too, a lot of the European kids brought over are not high end, look at some of Norwegian and Latvian kids on NCAA rosters, they're all pretty replaceable. Assume you're taking +400 ex-CHL, call it 380 of which are Canadian, and then -400 ex-BCHL/NAHL/Canadian Junior A/NCDC/Europe, etc, which we'll call 61 % American, 31 % Canadian, that'd be around

So maybe something like:

1064 + 20 = 1,084 - (.61 * 400 = 244) = 840 (48.4 %)
510 + 380 = 890 - (.31 * 400 = 124) = 766 (44.1 %)
165 - (.09 * 400 = 36) = 129 (7.4 %)

 

[jonthorp]

 

[Jacob]

Does signing an NHL contract still void your NCAA eligibility? Assume yes.

 

[Corso]

Looks like the NCAA is setting the stage for CHLers to be eligible for D-III as well.....

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Does signing an NHL contract still void your NCAA eligibility? Assume yes.

Yes

 

[Corso]

Does signing an NHL contract still void your NCAA eligibility? Assume yes.

Yes! There are some nuances though. Not all professional contracts will void your eligibility.

 

[jtechkid]

The big issue going forward i still do not get why you play Nahl - ncdc to your 20 . With the new rule change Nahl i don’t think will have any div 1 players outside maybe military schools . Nahl pitch was if you play to 20 you use to get some late commits but that is going to CHL almost 95% . Ncdc, ushl premier , should be shut down as cost is massive burden on youth programs . So it’s definitely reshaping things and making league obsolete . I don’t see too many CHL players going div 3 as the cost , level of play it would better stay home - play u sports and school is paid for . The big question is in the USHL how many commits will they have in next 1-3-5 years where they use to be just about whole league i could see that fall too 70-80% div 1 commits ?

 

[Appleyard]

I heard that Morning Cuppa Hockey interview last Friday. I'd have to listen again but it almost sounded like it will still be the top AAA teams just with access to better recruiting at the 15-16 y/o level? Because Hefferan said they'll still have to play some local teams in their general area, but they will compete in big showcases throughout the year (think of the Northeast Pack League right now, or Prep Hockey Conference - which contains Shattuck already).

I could be wrong but that's how I first interpreted it. So this league will bring in already top programs like Mount St. Charles, Honeybaked, Shattuck, Little Caesars, LA Jr Kings, Dallas Stars Elite, Colorado Thunderbirds, etc. and just make them stronger. Or it'll be fresh teams with new names in this new development league. Again, I'm probably wrong on that.

This would be great in theory.

NEPack is really the only consistent league at u-16 level in the US right now level wise... but it is only 6 teams. Albeit all 6 are amongst top ~15-20 u-16 teams in the nation.

Since High Performance Hockey league shut down (Little Caesers, Chicago Mission, HoneyBaked, Compuware, Team Illinois, Chicago Young Americans, Oakland Junior Grizzlies the core) feels like the u-16 landscape has become even more disjointed.

In a perfect world if can somehow get most of the top ~40 u-16 teams in the nation and divide them by conference? Would be incredible on paper. And then meet at years end.

Canada have u-16 or u-15 leagues in each of the major provinces have a 10-20 strong league that makes decent sense geographically and results in a linear, strong league with consistent schedules and therefore development.

BUT tricky geographically.

 

[Appleyard]

Roughly mapping it, of the top 50 u-16 teams (Prep and otherwise, looking over a rolling ~3-4 year span, and yeh, probably missed someone!) in the US you basically have:

9 in the NY/NJ/Philly area

8 in the Boston/RI/NH area

7 in the Detroit area
4 in Chicago
2 between Chicago and Detroit
1 in Wisconsin

2 in Upstate New York
4 in Pittsburgh/Columbus/Cleveland triangle

And then 2 in St. Louis which, I mean, a stretch but could play Chicago area teams.

that is 39 of the ~50... which in a perfect would could form into 5 divisions with no more than ~4 hours travel time by road for 90% of games.

But then that leaves an odd assortment of 11 teams in Minnesota, the Dakota's, Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, California, Arizona, Colorado... ofc these teams already travel a lot. But basically impossible to put them in any kind of sensible divisions in such a structure.

 

[jtechkid]

This would be great in theory.

NEPack is really the only consistent league at u-16 level in the US right now level wise... but it is only 6 teams. Albeit all 6 are amongst top ~15-20 u-16 teams in the nation.

Since High Performance Hockey league shut down (Little Caesers, Chicago Mission, HoneyBaked, Compuware, Team Illinois, Chicago Young Americans, Oakland Junior Grizzlies the core) feels like the u-16 landscape has become even more disjointed.

In a perfect world if can somehow get most of the top ~40 u-16 teams in the nation and divide them by conference? Would be incredible on paper. And then meet at years end.

Canada have u-16 or u-15 leagues in each of the major provinces have a 10-20 strong league that makes decent sense geographically and results in a linear, strong league with consistent schedules and therefore development.

BUT tricky geographically.

great post - let’s see

 

[Corso]

The big issue going forward i still do not get why you play Nahl - ncdc to your 20 . With the new rule change Nahl i don’t think will have any div 1 players outside maybe military schools . Nahl pitch was if you play to 20 you use to get some late commits but that is going to CHL almost 95% . Ncdc, ushl premier , should be shut down as cost is massive burden on youth programs . So it’s definitely reshaping things and making league obsolete . I don’t see too many CHL players going div 3 as the cost , level of play it would better stay home - play u sports and school is paid for . The big question is in the USHL how many commits will they have in next 1-3-5 years where they use to be just about whole league i could see that fall too 70-80% div 1 commits ?

I still think that the NAHL will generate a certain number of D-1 commitments while the rest take up D-III spots that use to come from leagues like the EHL.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

John Babcock (2004, WHL, Regina Pats) commits to Robert Morris

 

[qc14]

Roughly mapping it, of the top 50 u-16 teams (Prep and otherwise, looking over a rolling ~3-4 year span, and yeh, probably missed someone!) in the US you basically have:

9 in the NY/NJ/Philly area

8 in the Boston/RI/NH area

7 in the Detroit area
4 in Chicago
2 between Chicago and Detroit
1 in Wisconsin

2 in Upstate New York
4 in Pittsburgh/Columbus/Cleveland triangle

And then 2 in St. Louis which, I mean, a stretch but could play Chicago area teams.

that is 39 of the ~50... which in a perfect would could form into 5 divisions with no more than ~4 hours travel time by road for 90% of games.

But then that leaves an odd assortment of 11 teams in Minnesota, the Dakota's, Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, California, Arizona, Colorado... ofc these teams already travel a lot. But basically impossible to put them in any kind of sensible divisions in such a structure.

View attachment 973094

Having played AAA in the mid-atlantic region where travel/competition is the easiest ... it still sucks ass. Hotels every other weekend, constantly missing school and social events, etc.. Even the NY/NJ/PHI area is a pain in the ass. Long Island or Connecticut to DC (which would presumably be the extent of that division) can easily be a 7+ hour drive depending on the day. Outside of maybe 10 or so programs the quality of each club depending on age group swings pretty drastically from year to year as well.

There's really no good solution to American AAA/Tier 1 hockey. Even New England prep school -- probably the best combo of competition, access to ice and coaching, and a healthier school and social life balance -- still involves sending your kid away from home and paying a boatload of money to do so.

Until/unless hockey has the coverage to have a Minnesota high school system everywhere, there's always going to be some problems