CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[WarriorofTime]

If the USHL sees significant defection to the CHL, what would the NTDP's options be to maintain competition quality?

Could you consider a full NCAA schedule for the U18's?

Honestly think NTDP would be fine even if the OHL teams refused to play them. It's not like the NTDP teams dominate the much older USHL teams as is. Maybe they win a bit more regularly than now, but USHL should still be fine competition for a mixed bag schedule. USHL will still have plenty of 18-20 year olds, attract a good chunk of American junior talent as the top U.S. based junior league from kids that don't want to go to Canada/Canadian teams aren't going to wait around for them to finish high school and give a spot compared to a kid that's already been there, and would likely get some spillover from the other side if more USHL players are taking spots from kids on CHL teams. Keeping the league relatively small will help, it'd be a lot trickier of a process to manage if they were filling 60 teams worth of spots than 15.

USHL would only really be in danger if good NCAA teams stopped recruiting from there entirely or started making all their recruits go to CHL to not lose their spot. Which doesn't line up at all with a scenario where the Chase Reids also just outright stop going to NCAA because they made friends.

 

[Corso]

If the USHL sees significant defection to the CHL, what would the NTDP's options be to maintain competition quality?

Could you consider a full NCAA schedule for the U18's?

Heavy talk about the NTPD approaching the OHL as a member, OHL not interested in the same type of set up the NTDP currently has with the USHL. As you can imagine USA Hockey is doing its best to figure out the best plan of action. There is also talk of the NTDP disbanding one of the teams, the U-17.

Also talk of USA Hockey and the USHL trying to set up a super midget league of U-16 players to funnel into the USHL.

Lots of moving parts because of a rule change.

 

[WarriorofTime]

That's a fair comment. Keep in mind though that elite athletes are conditioned to go where ever they feel the best opportunity to develop is. Dozens and dozens of top young Mass kids (people forget that MN doesn't have a monopoly on elite H.S.-Prep programs) pack their bags and travel hundreds, if not thousands, of miles to play the game in what to them seems like a strange midwestern town with a completely different vibe than what they are used to. Dozens more travel to a foreign country on the opposite coast of a continent.
Players will always take the path that seems the best to them.

About a quarter of American USHL players are from Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan are next two, followed by New York.. and then Massachusetts. It's hard to pry the MA kids out of their Prep Schools until they graduate. But MA jumps to right there with MI when it comes to NCAA players. It's not necessarily that they don't do Junior stints but kids from MI, IL and NY will often do them a bit younger. The NCDC is a very popular alternative path for MA kids as it's an east coast based junior league. Some would go BCHL if they couldn't make the USHL, or had whatever idiosyncratic reasons. Some kids will still go from Prep directly to College, especially if it's like an ivy type school that still takes young players (look at Harvard roster).

QMJHL likely just another path to consider now between Prep and College, but as I've said, I'm not sure how many spots will get held open for kids joining at 18 or 19 that haven't already been around if they're not like a draft pick, NTDP kid or foreign NHL drafted import.

Prying kids early from Prep to the QMJHL may happen here and there, but also isn't a common path right now. The QMJHL likely needs to get demonstrably better at producing draft picks before I think a bunch of MA kids decide it's worth it to leave behind their schools and brush up on their french to whatever team holds their rights.

 

[Mototik]

That's a fair comment. Keep in mind though that elite athletes are conditioned to go where ever they feel the best opportunity to develop is. Dozens and dozens of top young Mass kids (people forget that MN doesn't have a monopoly on elite H.S.-Prep programs) pack their bags and travel hundreds, if not thousands, of miles to play the game in what to them seems like a strange midwestern town with a completely different vibe than what they are used to. Dozens more travel to a foreign country on the opposite coast of a continent.
Players will always take the path that seems the best to them.

That is also true, but I think my point is something to still consider (not that I'm reading your post as being against mine). Not everyone does that big move though already and now with more potential options, maybe we'll see smaller moves. But who knows and I think anyone making any broad proclamations either way is foolhardy.

When it comes to players always taking the path that seems best to them and the NCAA now being an option for CHLers, I really hope the CHL players have someone with their best interest in their corner and can help them make the best decision to set themselves up for after hockey because numbers wise, most of them aren't going to play professionally at a high level. I could see, and have already seen it in Jr. A players in years past, players getting chewed up by the NCAA machine and ending up with no scholarship after a year or end up with a five year degree from a second rate school and no serious pro hockey opportunities. Being able to brag that you (or your child for parents) are a NCAA athlete might be attractive but the NCAA path isn't a fit for everyone and I hope people realize that.

 

[Corso]

That is also true, but I think my point is something to still consider (not that I'm reading your post as being against mine). Not everyone does that big move though already and now with more potential options, maybe we'll see smaller moves. But who knows and I think anyone making any broad proclamations either way is foolhardy.

When it comes to players always taking the path that seems best to them and the NCAA now being an option for CHLers, I really hope the CHL players have someone with their best interest in their corner and can help them make the best decision to set themselves up for after hockey because numbers wise, most of them aren't going to play professionally at a high level. I could see, and have already seen it in Jr. A players in years past, players getting chewed up by the NCAA machine and ending up with no scholarship after a year or end up with a five year degree from a second rate school and no serious pro hockey opportunities. Being able to brag that you (or your child for parents) are a NCAA athlete might be attractive but the NCAA path isn't a fit for everyone and I hope people realize that.

Let's just say the quality of player agents has improved significantly over the past decade or so and many of them truly have the best interests of the players at heart. Yes, I am all too aware of the NCAA meatgrinder and believe me, this rule change and the transfer portal is beginning to bring about a whole new way of conducting business.

 

[WarriorofTime]

There are no reports from the journalists of the USNTDP halfing their list of players by combining teams or begging the OHL to join.

The only thing that's been reported is the USNTDP doesn't like that the two teams that are going to leave for the OHL because those are the two closest teams to them and will have a big impact on their travel costs.

Smart move might be for the NTDP to move operations to Minnesota, but all kind of speculative.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Maybe I’m forgetting someone, but I think the last cycle of players the NTDP got all the players they wanted (or at least no one went to the CHL).

Seems like a lot of talk about the NTDP falling apart for absolutely nothing with any substance behind it.

 

[4thline]

Honestly think NTDP would be fine even if the OHL teams refused to play them. It's not like the NTDP teams dominate the much older USHL teams as is. Maybe they win a bit more regularly than now, but USHL should still be fine competition for a mixed bag schedule. USHL will still have plenty of 18-20 year olds, attract a good chunk of American junior talent as the top U.S. based junior league from kids that don't want to go to Canada/Canadian teams aren't going to wait around for them to finish high school and give a spot compared to a kid that's already been there, and would likely get some spillover from the other side if more USHL players are taking spots from kids on CHL teams.

True. Plus A good chunk of potential USHL losses to the CHL should be offset by (status quo) NCAA edge case U20's that are going be pushed out recruiting classes by O20 CHL grads.

The bolded is an interesting one. Why not? The U17 underage spots are already saturated- their might be a marginal change in quality with some (status quo) NCAA types now displacing others, but a lot of CHL entrants are at 17. IF we see more NCAA track players come and play U17-U19 and leave, and IF we see more CHL grads forego their OA (or even leave after U19) for NCAA, that leaves a vacuum for the next tier of guys to come after playing U18 in HS to play their U19 and U20, maybe even OA.

This is a win win for the CHL and NCAA IMO.
NCAA gets better with the influx of CHL age outs + a sprinkling of elite U19/U20 post draft one and dones
CHL gets better with high end NCAA intension guys now playing their Junior hockey there
NCAA improvement raises the entrance bar and results in fewer U19/U20 freshman, equals better overall junior hockey

 

[Kingpin794]

True. Plus A good chunk of potential USHL losses to the CHL should be offset by (status quo) NCAA edge case U20's that are going be pushed out recruiting classes by O20 CHL grads.

The bolded is an interesting one. Why not? The U17 underage spots are already saturated- their might be a marginal change in quality with some (status quo) NCAA types now displacing others, but a lot of CHL entrants are at 17. IF we see more NCAA track players come and play U17-U19 and leave, and IF we see more CHL grads forego their OA (or even leave after U19) for NCAA, that leaves a vacuum for the next tier of guys to come after playing U18 in HS to play their U19 and U20, maybe even OA.

This is a win win for the CHL and NCAA IMO.
NCAA gets better with the influx of CHL age outs + a sprinkling of elite U19/U20 post draft one and dones
CHL gets better with high end NCAA intension guys now playing their Junior hockey there
NCAA improvement raises the entrance bar and results in fewer U19/U20 freshman, equals better overall junior hockey

The bolded is probably the most concise way of summarizing the mutual benefit both systems will see in this entire thread.