CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[coooldude]

I check in here every once in a while, and I'm consistently shocked at people who think that since nothing major has happened yet, nothing major will happen.

Players make decisions on a year-long cycle. We're still just months past a mid-season announcement. We won't really know how this fully plays out until we see 2-3 cycles of seasons - where do the very top prospects go, what about the next tier, what about guys who aren't ready for NHL but don't want to go to AHL, what about all the various scenarios that happen? We absolutely cannot know and should not expect to have "seen the changes" yet.

 

[MS]

If we're talking about guys who joined the CHL under the prior ineligibility situation, obviously they're less likely on the whole to move because they were initially willing to forego it in order to play in CHL. Going forward, there will be a substantial number of guys, including a fair number of Canadians, who wouldn't have joined the CHL if the NCAA hadn't made the eligibility change. Now they'll be drafted out of the CHL instead of a different junior league but they still want to play in D1.

For Canadians, I don't think many 'want' to play NCAA hockey, like it's a dream or something. The NCAA has gotten kids because it's considered the best/most prestigious educational opportunity and families (wealthier families in particular) have decided that getting that education was a better fallback if the NHL didn't work out. But now you can have that fallback going the CHL route.

There might be some US players who go CHL->NCAA instead of USHL->NCAA but in most cases I'd expect the NCAA jump to happen at age 20 or 21, not at age 18 or 19. And this is what we've seen so far - exactly 0 18/19 year old US-born CHL players have announced an NCAA commitment for next year. Once you're in the CHL pipeline if you're not a draft->NHL contract tracking player, the best way to stay on the prospect radar for the longest time is to play CHL until age 20-21 and then NCAA until age 24-25.

As a third-round draft choice, Mynio very likely could've joined a good D1 conference at age 18, had he been both eligible and interested.

This is my point. Of course he *could* have. But why on earth *would* he have? What exactly would there be to gain? What's the incentive?

For a guy like Mynio (or whatever 2025 draft equivalent) to move to the NCAA would mean delaying their ELC and the signing bonus $$$ that comes with that, not getting to go to NHL training camps and prospect tourneys, not getting AHL games at the end of last year, and likely not making the 2025 WJC team (Hockey Canada basically pulls from the CHL aside from the odd elite Celebrini). If I was Mynio's agent, why would I be advising that he do this?

The only drafted players I could really see doing this are guys who are not happy with their CHL team or situation or not happy with the NHL team that drafted them and who have no intention of immediately signing. And, like, I'm sure it will happen occasionally. But I simply can't see it being a big regular thing or something that the CHL would be concerned about as a talent drain.

 

[Corso]

Monitoring developments such as which leagues players commit to and the actions taken by the various leagues/franchises is understandable. But using those premises to make sweeping conclusions does not follow because this is a brand new change, there are competing interests/considerations, and there is no precedent for it.

Exactly, there is no precedent for this and you do recognize the massive change this is going to bring about. Where I disagree with you is that we cannot nor should not make any conclusions that may result because of this change.

I believe that it is safe to conclude that the domestic junior leagues will suffer a massive talent drain to the CHL. We have already seen this with the BCHL and we will soon see it with the USHL. If you disbelieve it, well understand that the only reason why there haven't been more defections from the USHL this season is because of the exorbitant transfer fees levied by respective USHL teams. (BTW...USHL commissioner all but admitted this fact today on a podcast with Cohen).

I believe that it is also safe to conclude that this large influx of American talent into the CHL will in time, begin to change the views of those Americans as to what road they will take to the pros.

You may disagree with those conclusions and I appreciate that you do not act like a child and call me fake or dork or whatever but all I ask is that you at least entertain the possibility that this change may bring about a NCAA that is different and perhaps not something that you are comfortable with.

As I've said ad nauseum....the next NHL-CHL agreement and the CBA will go a long way in how this plays out. Do not be shocked if the end result is a drastically altered landscape.

 

[Blue and Green]

This is my point. Of course he *could* have. But why on earth *would* he have? What exactly would there be to gain? What's the incentive?

For a guy like Mynio (or whatever 2025 draft equivalent) to move to the NCAA would mean delaying their ELC and the signing bonus $$$ that comes with that, not getting to go to NHL training camps and prospect tourneys, not getting AHL games at the end of last year, and likely not making the 2025 WJC team (Hockey Canada basically pulls from the CHL aside from the odd elite Celebrini). If I was Mynio's agent, why would I be advising that he do this?

Why is 18YO John Mustard, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round last year, playing in the NCAA this season? Why did Jayden Perron, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round in 2023, join North Dakota at age 18? Why did Adam Ingram, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round in 2022, go to the NCAA in his D+1? And Nick Moldenhauer, also a 2022 Canadian 3rd-rounder at age 18, go to the NCAA a year later? Because that's what they wanted to do, and they were good enough to do it. That is the path that they chose to take. And the NCAA has no problems churning out good pros, so what's the big deal if a guy decides that he'd rather delay his signing bonuses in order to play D1?

Now, the Mustards and Perrons and such can play in the CHL and then move to NCAA.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Why is 18YO John Mustard, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round last year, playing in the NCAA this season? Why did Jayden Perron, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round in 2023, join North Dakota at age 18? Why did Adam Ingram, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round in 2022, go to the NCAA in his D+1? And Nick Moldenhauer, also a 2022 Canadian 3rd-rounder at age 18, go to the NCAA a year later? Because that's what they wanted to do, and they were good enough to do it. That is the path that they chose to take. And the NCAA has no problems churning out good pros, so what's the big deal if a guy decides that he'd rather delay his signing bonuses in order to play D1?

Now, the Mustards and Perrons and such can play in the CHL and then move to NCAA.

Yeah, it's the Most A are B and most B are C so most A are C logical fallacy. There is no reason to think a player that always could have foregone the NCAA will now suddenly not just because their feeder league changed. The most common reasons cited appear to be thay they will either fall in love with the "atmosphere" of major junior hockey or be bullied by their agents into signing an ELC. I suppose anything is possible, but all I ask is that people at least entertain the possibility that this change may bring about a Major Junior landscape that is different and perhaps not something that they are comfortable with.

 

[MS]

Why is 18YO John Mustard, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round last year, playing in the NCAA this season? Why did Jayden Perron, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round in 2023, join North Dakota at age 18? Why did Adam Ingram, a Canadian drafted in the 3rd round in 2022, go to the NCAA in his D+1? And Nick Moldenhauer, also a 2022 Canadian 3rd-rounder at age 18, go to the NCAA a year later? Because that's what they wanted to do, and they were good enough to do it. That is the path that they chose to take. And the NCAA has no problems churning out good pros, so what's the big deal if a guy decides that he'd rather delay his signing bonuses in order to play D1?

I'm confused.

1) I never said that no Canadians ever would play NCAA hockey.

2) All your examples are pre-change. Of course those guys are still playing NCAA hockey.

3) As I said, the prospect of an NCAA education has been a big draw for some Canadian players. This applies to that list of guys. A guy like Mustard went undrafted in the OHL draft, so this was also pretty much his only option at the time.

With the change, I would expect that fewer Canadian players will take this path, since the biggest draws for taking this path (the better educational option and the fact you remain on the prospect radar longer) still apply if you go CHL and then go NCAA at age 20.

Now, the Mustards and Perrons and such can play in the CHL and then move to NCAA.

Yes, but you have yet to provide an argument as to *why* this would happen in any great numbers.

For Canadian guys, if they pick CHL at age 16-17, they're probably staying there until age 20. They'll settle in. They'll make friends. They'll become emotionally invested in their team/league. If they get drafted, they're incentivized to stay in the CHL. There might be more of a thing culturally with US guys to play in the CHL instead of the USHL at age 17 and then hop back to the Big US School, but even then I don't see where this is something the CHL would be concerned about as you're just losing guys you never had to begin with.

 

[Blue and Green]

Exactly, there is no precedent for this and you do recognize the massive change this is going to bring about. Where I disagree with you is that we cannot nor should not make any conclusions that may result because of this change.

I believe that it is safe to conclude that the domestic junior leagues will suffer a massive talent drain to the CHL. We have already seen this with the BCHL and we will soon see it with the USHL. If you disbelieve it, well understand that the only reason why there haven't been more defections from the USHL this season is because of the exorbitant transfer fees levied by respective USHL teams. (BTW...USHL commissioner all but admitted this fact today on a podcast with Cohen).

I believe that it is also safe to conclude that this large influx of American talent into the CHL will in time, begin to change the views of those Americans as to what road they will take to the pros.

You may disagree with those conclusions and I appreciate that you do not act like a child and call me fake or dork or whatever but all I ask is that you at least entertain the possibility that this change may bring about a NCAA that is different and perhaps not something that you are comfortable with.

As I've said ad nauseum....the next NHL-CHL agreement and the CBA will go a long way in how this plays out. Do not be shocked if the end result is a drastically altered landscape.

I pretty much agree with this... although noting that, if there could be some effect on the mindset of Americans by coming to the CHL, there could also be an effect on the Canadian mindset by watching players leave CHL early to play in NCAA.

One other thing: NCAA programs might have to up their offers a little if they want some of these CHLers to leave before their eligibility is finished. They won't be taking players away only from willing participants (USHL) or weaker leagues (BCHL, Junior A) but also from CHL which has the quality of competition and the scholarship funding to at least make guys think a little more before leaving. Some 19YO Canadians might be looking for a little more security than just a year-by-year NCAA offer to leave instead of staying for one more season and securing that four-year CHL scholarship as a fallback.

 

[Corso]

I pretty much agree with this... although noting that, if there could be some effect on the mindset of Americans by coming to the CHL, there could also be an effect on the Canadian mindset by watching players leave CHL early to play in NCAA.

One other thing: NCAA programs might have to up their offers a little if they want some of these CHLers to leave before their eligibility is finished. They won't be taking players away only from willing participants (USHL) or weaker leagues (BCHL, Junior A) but also from CHL which has the quality of competition and the scholarship funding to at least make guys think a little more before leaving. Some 19YO Canadians might be looking for a little more security than just a year-by-year NCAA offer to leave instead of staying for one more season and securing that four-year CHL scholarship as a fallback.

It's not really what the CHL can offer that scares me. Yes I understand their mindset is different and I've been told that as a collective they are adamant about NOT being the new USHL. So I also understand that the culture will be different and that will have an effect on players. With all that, I don't suspect that a top end American kid will opt out of the college route because of the soft pressures employed by the CHL club. Rather, I fear the new CHL-NHL agreement and the next CBA. Coupled with what the CHL can offer, that may very well be the massive negative for the NCAA.

 

[Blue and Green]

I'm confused.

1) I never said that no Canadians ever would play NCAA hockey.

2) All your examples are pre-change. Of course those guys are still playing NCAA hockey.

3) As I said, the prospect of an NCAA education has been a big draw for some Canadian players. This applies to that list of guys. A guy like Mustard went undrafted in the OHL draft, so this was also pretty much his only option at the time.

With the change, I would expect that fewer Canadian players will take this path, since the biggest draws for taking this path (the better educational option and the fact you remain on the prospect radar longer) still apply if you go CHL and then go NCAA at age 20.



Yes, but you have yet to provide an argument as to *why* this would happen in any great numbers.

For Canadian guys, if they pick CHL at age 16-17, they're probably staying there until age 20. They'll settle in. They'll make friends. They'll become emotionally invested in their team/league. If they get drafted, they're incentivized to stay in the CHL. There might be more of a thing culturally with US guys to play in the CHL instead of the USHL at age 17 and then hop back to the Big US School, but even then I don't see where this is something the CHL would be concerned about as you're just losing guys you never had to begin with.

I'm a bit confused, too, and I don't know how else I can explain it. There's at least one other person here who understands what I mean. I think it's reached time that we just shrug and move on.

It's not really what the CHL can offer that scares me. Yes I understand their mindset is different and I've been told that as a collective they are adamant about NOT being the new USHL. So I also understand that the culture will be different and that will have an effect on players. With all that, I don't suspect that a top end American kid will opt out of the college route because of the soft pressures employed by the CHL club. Rather, I fear the new CHL-NHL agreement and the next CBA. Coupled with what the CHL can offer, that may very well be the massive negative for the NCAA.

I can't see a terrible outcome for NCAA. Nor for CHL. I don't think that NHL has any interest in creating a bad situation for either of them, and likes having sort of a balance of power between them, although I do think that NHL and CHL are a little more aligned in their interests. Agencies have clients from each, the PA gets its members from each, so I expect that the next CBA and the next CHL-NHL agreement will be worked out to assure the well-being of all parties, as much as possible.

 

[MS]

I'm a bit confused, too, and I don't know how else I can explain it. There's at least one other person here who understands what I mean. I think it's reached time that we just shrug and move on.


I can't see a terrible outcome for NCAA. Nor for CHL. I don't think that NHL has any interest in creating a bad situation for either of them, and likes having sort of a balance of power between them, although I do think that NHL and CHL are a little more aligned in their interests. Agencies have clients from each, the PA gets its members from each, so I expect that the next CBA and the next CHL-NHL agreement will be worked out to assure the well-being of all parties, as much as possible.

To be clear, I'm not foreseeing a terrible outcome for the NCAA. At all.

I think that generally speaking this is fantastic for the NCAA. The influx of 150+ age 20-21 ex-CHL players every year will give a massive boost to the talent pool, level of play, and overall parity for the NCAA. I just think it will take a bit of a hit (though probably not extreme) in terms of U20 Canadian talent and U20 drafted talent, which is what most posters here are most interested in talking about.