CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[Blue and Green]

Really curious about a player like Chase Reid. He will most likely be a first-round draft pick next year. He is slated to start Michigan State the following fall.....he will be one of the harbingers as to what players who entered the CHL with a D-1 commitment already in hand will do.

As of now, I can tell you that he still intends to honor his commitment. Things on the hockey development path, however, have a way of changing things from time to time.

It's a subset of players who formerly would've foregone the CHL because of the NCAA's eligibility restriction, that now can play CHL and then move to NCAA. I think that the average age of the move will increase slightly; partly because D1 is going to get a bit tougher and also because CHL competition is good enough that a few might feel that they don't need to move on as quickly as they might've from lower levels like BCHL/Junior A. I guess maybe some teetering on the edge at age 19 might like the safety net of that CHL scholarship in their back pocket and stay. But the ones that can make the jump successfully at age 18 or 19, why wouldn't they?

 

[Corso]

Is yet again illogical. If they were "trying and trying and trying" and willing to announce the results of their efforts, we would have heard at least something by now given the programs we're talking about.

I know of one player, an 06, who was about to make an announcement but delayed it until after the season in order to see if his NHL club will extend an ELC or not. Everything is in a holding pattern right now because most or those prospects are waiting to see who will draft them and who will offer an ELC (and I mentioned this many times already). If you find that illogical then please stop asking and quoiting me.

It's a subset of players who formerly would've foregone the CHL because of the NCAA's eligibility restriction, that now can play CHL and then move to NCAA. I think that the average age of the move will increase slightly; partly because D1 is going to get a bit tougher and also because CHL competition is good enough that a few might feel that they don't need to move on as quickly as they might've from lower levels like BCHL/Junior A. I guess maybe some teetering on the edge at age 19 might like the safety net of that CIS scholarship in their back pocket and stay. But the ones that can make the jump successfully at age 18 or 19, why wouldn't they?

All depends as to whether or not they want to sign a pro contract or not at the age of 18 or 19

 

[Blue and Green]

All depends as to whether or not they want to sign a pro contract or not at the age of 18 or 19

Right, but there's no shortage of kids right now or in the past who could've signed a pro contract at 18 or 19 but forestalled so that they could play a season or two in D1.

 

[Wieters]

I know of one player, an 06, who was about to make an announcement but delayed it until after the season in order to see if his NHL club will extend an ELC or not. Everything is in a holding pattern right now because most or those prospects are waiting to see who will draft them and who will offer an ELC (and I mentioned this many times already). If you find that illogical then please stop asking and quoiting me.

We have real, named sources who have been willing to go on record and say that there are high-profile CHL players with agreements in principle with NCAA teams. You are seemingly contradicting that by saying the programs are trying but can't get any bites.

Not only are you contradicting real sources with your purported "sources," but you're doing it in a way that doesn't make sense and is illogical. Seemingly the only programs that haven't announced commitments from CHL players are the programs with by far the most pull. And not just one or two programs of that stature--all of them. It stands to reason that they aren't making announcements for reasons other than that they can't get any commitments.

 

[MS]

Probably not right away as we still sort through both (a) players that had opted the "CHL" route when they went there to begin with and (b) players that are still subject to a 2-year "Must Sign" date.

Starting with say, 09s, who haven't made their junior hockey decisions yet, we'll see as that is where the longer term implications will be felt.

The only "huge risk" is that a player is a bust and not able to make an impact at the NCAA level when they are 18, at which point they'll be sent back to Junior in order to get more ready. I don't really see how it's a huge "risk". Did Fantilli take a "risk" to leave the Steel and play at Michigan for his draft year? He was good enough, and it only helped him.

Of course it's a risk. The fact that Fantilli had a big freshman season doesn't mean it's guaranteed to happen to everyone moving to a new league and a new level.

For a guy like Gavin McKenna to jump to the NCAA next year would be a risk. Maybe it would work out great, but the odds that something happens to negatively impact his draft position in a new league/new situation/higher level are far greater than if he just stays in the known good situation and dominates.

And again, this isn't to say it will *never* happen. I'm sure it will happen at some point. But I'd be stunned if it becomes some sort of regular thing.

Like, I mean, even the players that *could* do it are rare enough. Virtually every Jan-Sept birth would be ineligible to play in the NCAA in their draft year and then you have the ELC/missing NHL camp thing the next year. Pre-draft this only really applies to rare cases of really elite Sept-Dec born talents, of which there are maybe 1 or 2 a year.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I find the "sign an ELC" thing people talk about to be an overrated factor.

Players aren't so hung up on getting paid so quickly. Most of these kids come from relatively well off families (yeah, that's typical of those who play hockey), so they don't need the money so bad right away for their families. You rarely, if ever, hear talk of ELC's normally before everything started realigning. I don't see why this would all of a sudden be a big factor. And players are going to get NIL from playing NCAA, so they actually will be compensated.

And for the first and second round picks, they are going to get the ELC eventually anyway, regardless of how well things go over their next few years of hockey. Maybe a 5th or 6th round pick that has an ELC put in front of them has a decision to make, but is anyone even talking about these players that much? Whether they'll go to the NCAA will be a secondary talking point after it's figured out if the first round picks go play NCAA.

It's mostly a matter of whether you want to go play college hockey or continue with CHL until age 20 and then go to pro hockey (or for the few, play NHL before 20).

 

[WarriorofTime]

Like, I mean, even the players that *could* do it are rare enough. Virtually every Jan-Sept birth would be ineligible to play in the NCAA in their draft year and then you have the ELC/missing NHL camp thing the next year. Pre-draft this only really applies to rare cases of really elite Sept-Dec born talents, of which there are maybe 1 or 2 a year.

The ELC should only really matter for a kid that has a realistic shot at making the NHL roster to begin with out of camp.

Remember, the college kids can just sign an ELC once their college season ends and jump right into NHL games that same year. Happens all the time.

 

[Wieters]

It's mostly a matter of whether you want to go play college hockey or continue with CHL until age 20 and then go to pro hockey (or for the few, play NHL before 20).

And either option is better than the AHL, which is a league that almost no one wants to go to unless necessary. If going to the NCAA (or staying in the CHL) means you can obviate the AHL and still get to the NHL on the same timeline as if you had gone to the AHL, then I would imagine most kids would rather do that even if their advisor is telling them isn't the optimal outcome from a purely financial standpoint.

 

[MS]

I find the "sign an ELC" thing people talk about to be an overrated factor.

Players aren't so hung up on getting paid so quickly. Most of these kids come from relatively well off families (yeah, that's typical of those who play hockey), so they don't need the money so bad right away for their families. You rarely, if ever, hear talk of ELC's normally before everything started realigning. I don't see why this would all of a sudden be a big factor.

And for the first and second round picks are going to get the ELC eventually anyway, regardless of how well things go over their next few years of hockey. Maybe a 5th or 6th round pick that has an ELC put in front of them has a decision to make, but is anyone even talking about these players that much? Whether they'll go the NCAA will be a secondary talking point after it's figured out if the first round picks go play NCAA.

It's mostly a matter of whether you want to go play college hockey or continue with CHL until age 20 and then go to pro hockey (or for the few, play NHL before 20).

Of course it's a thing. And it's a thing where it's trending that 2nd and 3rd round picks are signing their ELCs earlier and earlier. Agents and players want their ELCs and they want to get it locked in as soon as possible.

And it's not just the ELC. It's going to NHL training camps and development camps, playing preseason games, being in the 'pipeline' for an NHL team instead of an outsider.

A guy like Sawyer Mynio who the Canucks took in the 3rd round in 2023 was signed to an ELC almost immediately. He's now had two full NHL training camps, two prospect tourneys, played AHL games and NHL preseason games, and is getting $95k/year in signing bonus money. What possible incentivization would he have had to forfeit all of that to play NCAA hockey?

 

[Corso]

We have real, named sources who have been willing to go on record and say that there are high-profile CHL players with agreements in principle with NCAA teams. You are seemingly contradicting that by saying the programs are trying but can't get any bites.

Not only are you contradicting real sources with your purported "sources," but you're doing it in a way that doesn't make sense and is illogical. Seemingly the only programs that haven't announced commitments from CHL players are the programs with by far the most pull. And not just one or two programs of that stature--all of them. It stands to reason that they aren't making announcements for reasons other than that they can't get any commitments.

Real sources? Like the one you posted about Misa???

 

[Blue and Green]

Of course it's a thing. And it's a thing where it's trending that 2nd and 3rd round picks are signing their ELCs earlier and earlier. Agents and players want their ELCs and they want to get it locked in as soon as possible.

And it's not just the ELC. It's going to NHL training camps and development camps, playing preseason games, being in the 'pipeline' for an NHL team instead of an outsider.

A guy like Sawyer Mynio who the Canucks took in the 3rd round in 2023 was signed to an ELC almost immediately. He's now had two full NHL training camps, two prospect tourneys, played AHL games and NHL preseason games, and is getting $95k/year in signing bonus money. What possible incentivization would he have had to forfeit all of that to play NCAA hockey?

It's a trend among players who joined CHL knowing that they couldn't play in NCAA as a result. It's not a trend that applies to every player. Delaying signing bonuses for a year or two is something that a whole lot of current pro players did so that they could spend time in NCAA-- which, by the way, has loosened a couple of the restrictions re: camps.

Of course it's a risk. The fact that Fantilli had a big freshman season doesn't mean it's guaranteed to happen to everyone moving to a new league and a new level.

For a guy like Gavin McKenna to jump to the NCAA next year would be a risk. Maybe it would work out great, but the odds that something happens to negatively impact his draft position in a new league/new situation/higher level are far greater than if he just stays in the known good situation and dominates.

Just in the past four years, Celebrini, Fantilli and Power were highly touted Canadians who moved from USHL to NCAA for their pre-draft season and then were selected 1st or 2nd overall. There's almost no risk factor for McKenna; he's a major talent and he'd light up D1. The only question is motivation; he chose WHL at a time when that meant curtains for any NCAA aspirations whereas the aforementioned players clearly signalled their NCAA intentions by playing in USHL.

 

[Wieters]

Real sources? Like the one you posted about Misa???

Yes? These are people who have verifiable titles/bonafides and whose reputation is on the line. You, an anonymous message board poster, are contradicting them.





Given that you have also made sweeping statements about NIL that you can't actually corroborate with specifics and continue to make dispositive statements about the future that quite literally no one can know, I am going to choose to believe them and not you.

 

[WarriorofTime]

And it's not just the ELC. It's going to NHL training camps and development camps, playing preseason games, being in the 'pipeline' for an NHL team instead of an outsider.

A guy like Sawyer Mynio who the Canucks took in the 3rd round in 2023 was signed to an ELC almost immediately. He's now had two full NHL training camps, two prospect tourneys, played AHL games and NHL preseason games, and is getting $95k/year in signing bonus money. What possible incentivization would he have had to forfeit all of that to play NCAA hockey?

Have to keep asking because nobody can give a straight answer. Why does any drafted player ever play in the NCAA then? All of them of a certain caliber could sign an ELC, go to the training camps, and get assigned to a Major Junior team. Sawyer Mynio made his choice that he didn't want to be a college hockey player back in 2021. Now players can delay that choice because it's not an either/or. Being in the "pipeline" doesn't mean he's going to skip ahead of anyone who is better than him that played college hockey like Tom Willander if Willander is better than him now like he was on Draft Day. Unless you're implying Willander would have just never been offered an ELC or slid to Major Junior had he wanted to? Which I doubt you're saying.

Mynio got cut twice, next year his contract will actually start running and he'll make another go at it, but like most kids that got double slid, likely get sent to the AHL unless he impresses. If he had gone to college, he could have opted to sign at the end of this year and have his contract start running (if the team wanted him), gone back to college another year if he's not NHL ready or not (and then sign and have his contract run on the same timeline), all while working towards a degree and playing better competition. Neither is right or wrong as either way has worked out for third round picks, but the idea that he would have been a fool to pass up an ELC and go to college is illogical.

 

[MS]

It's a trend among players who joined CHL knowing that they couldn't play in NCAA as a result. It's not a trend that applies to every player. Delaying signing bonuses for a year or two is something that a whole lot of current pro players did so that they could spend time in NCAA-- which, by the way, has loosened a couple of the restrictions re: camps.

It was a 'cost' of going to the Best Educational Opportunity.

And again, I'm sure plenty of players will continue to find delaying their ELC to be worth it to play in the NCAA. And I'm sure there will be isolated cases of guys who jump due to issues with their specific situations. But the question here is whether there will be a trend of drafted players bailing on the CHL to play NCAA hockey and I simply don't see the incentivization for it. At all. If I was an agent for a drafted CHL player and you had an NHL team offering my player an ELC, I simply cannot think of why I'd be suggesting the player leave the CHL and not take that ELC in order to try their luck in the NCAA.

NCAA players still aren't going to NHL training camps and prospect tournaments that happen after the school year starts. It's a bit looser for summer development camps.

Just in the past four years, Celebrini, Fantilli and Power were highly touted Canadians who moved from USHL to NCAA for their pre-draft season and then were selected 1st or 2nd overall. There's almost no risk factor for McKenna; he's a major talent and he'd light up D1. The only question is motivation; he chose WHL at a time when that meant curtains for any NCAA aspirations whereas the aforementioned players clearly signalled their NCAA intentions by playing in USHL.

I mean, pretty small sample size. There are plenty of examples of 1st round picks from the USHL/NDTP who got smoked as NCAA freshmen and would have had their stock fall in a massive way if it was their draft year. Alex Turcotte is a recent example who was a 3rd overall pick. It's happening to Hagens to a limited extent this year, even.

It *probably* wouldn't happen to McKenna but I still really wouldn't really get why he'd want to do it.

I have no idea about McKenna specifically but per your last sentence, yeah. I'm sure a bunch of these high-profile CHL guys don't really have much of a desire to detour to a classroom for another year or two on their way to the NHL. McDavid rather famously has a whole bunch of tweets in his his history from when he was a teenager about how much he hated math. Probably wasn't going to a D1 NCAA school no matter what, simply on a scholastic level.

 

[Corso]

Yes? These are people who have verifiable titles/bonafides and whose reputation is on the line. You, an anonymous message board poster, are contradicting them.





Given that you have also made sweeping statements about NIL that you can't actually corroborate with specifics and continue to make dispositive statements about the future that quite literally no one can know, I am going to choose to believe them and not you.

Well the first "source" by Cam Robinson was thoroughly debunked by Colby Cohen ....you know the one that actually helps run the B.U. NIL collective, and he really called him out on it and there was crickets from Robinson.... and who exactly is Gabe Foley??? Anyway I like the fact that he says he "could help" break the dam and I also like that you posted this because it does corroborate what I have been saying for the past several pages now......I have directly heard from REAL KNOWLEDGABLE people that there are some soft commits but they are awaiting the draft and possible contract offers....

Right, but there's no shortage of kids right now or in the past who could've signed a pro contract at 18 or 19 but forestalled so that they could play a season or two in D1.

Right, all those players were either from the NTDP or the USHL. As we both stated, there are not many 18 year old players ready to handle the rigors of a full season in the AHL. Most of these NHL teams would say go and play college for a year or two and then sign. They could not sign and go back to their former USHL club or the NTDP, they had to go to the NCAA. It is a bit different now though isn't it? Say Reid is a first round pick. He now has the option to delay signing and go to MSU or sign, play a bit in the AHL and then return back to his OHL club if he needed to. It's a different dynamic now. It will be interesting to see what a player like that decides.

As for no one wants to play in the AHL.....like really??? I mean the MAJORITY of college hockey players who go pro end up playing in the......AHL! We are talking about hockey players, not weekend college ice boys (and this is coming from a college hockey fan!) . A player like Gavin Brindley signed his ELC knowing full well that time in the AHL was a distinct possibility. He did not say...."I aint riding no bus man....I'm staying pool side at the Big House!" Of course every player wants to be in the NHL but they are not going to hold their nose up at a contract sheet because they may have to spend time in the AHL.

The cultural pull of college hockey will continue to pull in high end Americans, at least for now but I can see that eroding over time.

 

[Wieters]

The cultural pull of college hockey will continue to pull in high end Americans, at least for now but I can see that eroding over time.

Right, because as the NCAA increases in quality from this change and NIL continues to make its way into the sport, we're going to see fewer Americans drawn to college hockey. Makes total sense as usual. At least you're just idly guessing this time rather than pretending like this is a commonly held belief amongst college hockey coaches.

 

[Blue and Green]

It was a 'cost' of going to the Best Educational Opportunity.

And again, I'm sure plenty of players will continue to find delaying their ELC to be worth it to play in the NCAA. And I'm sure there will be isolated cases of guys who jump due to issues with their specific situations. But the question here is whether there will be a trend of drafted players bailing on the CHL to play NCAA hockey and I simply don't see the incentivization for it. At all. If I was an agent for a drafted CHL player and you had an NHL team offering my player an ELC, I simply cannot think of why I'd be suggesting the player leave the CHL and not take that ELC in order to try their luck in the NCAA.

NCAA players still aren't going to NHL training camps and prospect tournaments that happen after the school year starts. It's a bit looser for summer development camps.



I mean, pretty small sample size. There are plenty of examples of 1st round picks from the USHL/NDTP who got smoked as NCAA freshmen and would have had their stock fall in a massive way if it was their draft year. Alex Turcotte is a recent example who was a 3rd overall pick. It's happening to Hagens to a limited extent this year, even.

It *probably* wouldn't happen to McKenna but I still really wouldn't really get why he'd want to do it.

I have no idea about McKenna specifically but per your last sentence, yeah. I'm sure a bunch of these high-profile CHL guys don't really have much of a desire to detour to a classroom for another year or two on their way to the NHL. McDavid rather famously has a whole bunch of tweets in his his history from when he was a teenager about how much he hated math. Probably wasn't going to a D1 NCAA school no matter what, simply on a scholastic level.

The point that I'm making re: ELC is that will be a considerable difference between the population of current CHLers and the incoming groups because of the NCAA eligibility situation. Guys like Sawyer Mynio can't be lumped in with the incoming kids from the States, especially, arriving with D1 commitments already in hand and possessing somewhat different aspirations.

If we bring Turcotte (who was actually drafted 5th overall, not 3rd) into the discussion of elite talents moving to NCAA, we should also bring up his NTDP contemporaries Zegras, Boldy, Knight and York who were drafted in the 9 - 15 range that year and did just fine in their D+1's in NCAA. And if Jack Hughes had spent his D+1 in the NCAA he'd have done even better than they did.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I mean, pretty small sample size. There are plenty of examples of 1st round picks from the USHL/NDTP who got smoked as NCAA freshmen and would have had their stock fall in a massive way if it was their draft year. Alex Turcotte is a recent example who was a 3rd overall pick. It's happening to Hagens to a limited extent this year, even.

It *probably* wouldn't happen to McKenna but I still really wouldn't really get why he'd want to do it.

There are players that stagnate on their Junior team and see their stock fall too though, so I'm not really getting the point here. Anyone that doesn't have a good season relative to expectations will fall. Cole Eiserman went from Preseason Number 2 on the McKenzie list playing at the USNTDP to Number 20 on draft day, still playing at USNTDP because he stagnated relative to expectations. Sam Dickinson went from Number 5 on the list playing in the OHL to number 11 on draft day, still playing in the OHL. Henry Mews went from Number 16 all the way down to Number 74. Artyom Levshunov went from Number 4 having played in USHL the prior season to Number 2 on draft day playing in NCAA. And of coruse, you can find big CHL risers as well.

 

[Corso]

Right, because as the NCAA increases in quality from this change and NIL continues to make its way into the sport, we're going to see fewer Americans drawn to college hockey. Makes total sense as usual. At least you're just idly guessing this time rather than pretending like this is a commonly held belief amongst college hockey coaches.

Well actually there is indeed a fear among a certain sector of the college coaching staff. There was a reason why they did not want to grant eligibility to CHL players.

Look Wieters, I don't mind engaging and debating with you cause you aint a complete D%%K like a couple of other (who I won't name) posters and ironically we both want the same thing, for the NCAA to become the main route to pro hockey, shit we might even cheer for the same college team. You might not believe me or distrust my sources or think I'm making this all up....and that's OK because you don't have to believe me but open yourself up to the possibility that this rule change is going to upend a ton of things and the old order of business will no longer apply.

NCAA competition will be better but it will be an older league. Some like Bob Turow, who I don't always agree with but is a far more trusted insider than who ever Gabe Foley is or hopes to be, think that this will be the death knell for college hockey as a viable path to the pros. Personally I think he's being a bit dramatic but I also see where he is coming from. The CHL has a very close relationship with the NHL and please do not discount their influence on shaping how this may turn out. Players for the most part, no matter their nationality, want to play in the NHL and will take any viable path to get there. They will choose the best path for them and if they are already on one path, a path that has traditionally eschewed the college option on the road to the pro dream, DO NOT DISCOUNT the influence that will have.

As for NIL....well man let me tell you.....lots of stuff going to be happening there....but not so much in the world of college hockey.

 

[WarriorofTime]

McDavid rather famously has a whole bunch of tweets in his his history from when he was a teenager about how much he hated math. Probably wasn't going to a D1 NCAA school no matter what, simply on a scholastic level.

McDavid also considered playing NCAA hockey, possibly at Boston University, but decided his developing skills would be stunted while waiting to attend college.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/ohl-star-connor-mcdavid-16-called-the-next-big-thing/article_92a8d481-d0b8-517d-8790-384b2d20d985.html

The next McDavid with Exceptional Status could play 2 years at the OHL level, then jump to NCAA and play there for their aged 17 draft season.

Lots of kids "hate math" that still go to college. Perhaps he wouldn't have majored in Engineering though.

 

[MS]

The point that I'm making re: ELC is that will be a considerable difference between the population of current CHLers and the incoming groups because of the NCAA eligibility situation. Guys like Sawyer Mynio can't be lumped in with the incoming kids from the States, especially, arriving with D1 commitments already in hand and possessing somewhat different aspirations.

I'm not comparing Mynio to 2025 American draft picks with NCAA commitments. Lots of Americans will always take the NCAA route because of the cultural pull, regardless of anything else.

People here are suggesting there could be a considerable flow of drafted CHL players to the NCAA during their 18/19 year old seasons. And I simply don't see it. I don't see the incentivization. And I'm using Mynio as an example of a fairly generic CHL 3rd round pick - how would that player have benefited from jumping to the NCAA?

If we bring Turcotte (who was actually drafted 5th overall, not 3rd) into the discussion of elite talents moving to NCAA, we should also bring up his NTDP contemporaries Zegras, Boldy, Knight and York who were drafted in the 9 - 15 range that year and did just fine in their D+1's in NCAA. And if Jack Hughes had spent his D+1 in the NCAA he'd have done even better than they did.

Boldy also had a disappointing freshman season and missed that year's US WJC team. York didn't have a great year either. The ratio on that 'best NDTP group ever' as NCAA freshmen wasn't particularly good. Probably 2/5 actually raised their stock.

 

[WarriorofTime]

......I have directly heard from REAL KNOWLEDGABLE people that there are some soft commits but they are awaiting the draft and possible contract offers....

Right, all those players were either from the NTDP or the USHL. As we both stated, there are not many 18 year old players ready to handle the rigors of a full season in the AHL. Most of these NHL teams would say go and play college for a year or two and then sign. They could not sign and go back to their former USHL club or the NTDP, they had to go to the NCAA.

Uh, for being a so-called 'insider' with REAL KNOWLEDGEABLE (and of course, unnamed) sources, you would think you would know that being play for the NTDP or in the USHL didn't make a player ineligible for the CHL.

Any kid drafted Rounds 1-3 out of the USNTDP or USHL could have said "wow, I guess I don't need to go to college as a backup plan!", signed an ELC and then been assigned back to a Major Junior team per the CHL-NHL Transfer Agreement.

Nobody ever "had" to go to the NCAA. Unless you think a kid went to the NHL team and said "please can I have one of those fancy ELCs?" and got told to get lost.

The cultural pull of college hockey will continue to pull in high end Americans, at least for now but I can see that eroding over time.

Considering your statement of "BOOKMARK IT" and even bragged about how you were going to bump old posts in the future to gloat at me, how many 09/10 players on a future USA World Junior team will be playing NCAA Hockey? Over/Under?

 

[Wieters]

Well actually this is indeed a fear among a certain sector of the college coaching staff. There was a reason why they did not want to grant eligibility to CHL players.

Look Wieters, I don't mind engaging and debating with you cause you aint a complete D%%K like a couple of other (who I won't name) posters and ironically we both want the same thing, for the NCAA to become the main route to pro hockey, shit we might even cheer for the same college team. You might not believe me or distrust my sources or think I'm making this all up....and that's OK because you don't have to believe me but open yourself up to the possibility that this rule change is going to upend a ton of things and the old order of business will no longer apply.

NCAA competition will be better but it will be an older league. Some like Bob Turow, who I don't always agree with but is a far more trusted insider than who ever Gabe Foley is or hopes to be, think that this will be the death knell for college hockey as a viable path to the pros. Personally I think he's being a bit dramatic but I also see where he is coming from. The CHL has a very close relationship with the NHL and please do not discount their influence on shaping how this may turn out. Players for the most part, no matter their nationality, want to play in the NHL and will take any viable path to get there. They will choose the best path for them and if they are already on one path, a path that has traditionally eschewed the college option on the road to the pro dream, DO NOT DISCOUNT the influence that will have.

As for NIL....well man let me tell you.....lots of stuff going to be happening there....but not so much in the world of college hockey.

The organizing principle for me is simply that no one knows how this is going to play out because not only can no one predict the future, but the consequences of this specific change are not obvious/self-evident. Whether it's Bob Turow or your sources (which I am not denying exist and appreciate you being willing to share if real) or anyone else, they are guessing.

Monitoring developments such as which leagues players commit to and the actions taken by the various leagues/franchises is understandable. But using those premises to make sweeping conclusions does not follow because this is a brand new change, there are competing interests/considerations, and there is no precedent for it.

It would be one thing if it was just random message board posters claiming nothing more than their own genius to be the ones conjecturing. But it's another entirely when it gets taken outside of the scope of idle talk and is presented as definitive momentum/movement from the powers that be in a particular direction based on inside knowledge. That sort of claim/bias is quite predictably going to be challenged not just based on the veracity of those things actually existing, but also as to the likelihood of their predictive nature.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Problem with this one guy in here is that while others are having reasonable discussion about potential outcomes and speculating on what could or couldn't happen, this clown comes in and says "no this is what WILL happen" and claims to have insight into the inner-workings of CHL officials, NCAA officials, USHL officials, USA Hockey officials, College Coaches, NCAA Boosters, Players that haven't yet started Junior Hockey, players that are eligible for this year's draft, players already drafted, American players, Canadian players, the NHL, the AHL. Any discussion is immediately halted to "no this IS the thing that is happening" based on "sources", and when pressed on info either shirks or lashes out emotionally saying how he'll say "WHAT UP DICK" some point in the future, followed by this patronizing, condescending tone.

It's very unusual for someone to be allowed to claim they have "sources" all over the landscape of amateur hockey and then not have to verify any of it, while passing off their speculation as "fact". It's ultimately just attention-seeking behavior.

 

[Blue and Green]

People here are suggesting there could be a considerable flow of drafted CHL players to the NCAA during their 18/19 year old seasons. And I simply don't see it. I don't see the incentivization. And I'm using Mynio as an example of a fairly generic CHL 3rd round pick - how would that player have benefited from jumping to the NCAA?

If we're talking about guys who joined the CHL under the prior ineligibility situation, obviously they're less likely on the whole to move because they were initially willing to forego it in order to play in CHL. Going forward, there will be a substantial number of guys, including a fair number of Canadians, who wouldn't have joined the CHL if the NCAA hadn't made the eligibility change. Now they'll be drafted out of the CHL instead of a different junior league but they still want to play in D1.

As a third-round draft choice, Mynio very likely could've joined a good D1 conference at age 18, had he been both eligible and interested.