CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

Where in the world did I refer to you as a little boy?

I've used the pigeons pooping on the chessboard analogy. I've mentioned poe's law. I've said your believe in conspiracy theories. Never called you a little boy.

Nothing I've said is likely to happen can be evaluated yet. It's things that will be evaluated several years from now.
I’m pretty sure it was you (if not, I apologize) that posted a video titled “little boy” in response to a post of mine in the Bob McKenzie rankings thread.

Edit: I found it.

I look forward to Jon Bois covering this thread as a sequel to this banger


You referred to me as the dumbest boy alive. Hate to break it to you, I ain’t a boy. Don’t know how someone who has been posting here for over 11 years could be a boy.
 
the CHL players chose the CHL route over the NCAA specifically because they wanted to focus mostly on Pro aspirations. The Pro contract is the quintessential achievement for these players.

16 of 17 players selected in the 1st Round from last year’s NHL draft who are currently in the CHL have signed their ELC. Only Cayden Lindstrom has not signed due to long-term injuries and a questionable playing future.

Things can always change, but I’d be very surprised if Misa, Martone, whoever forgoes signing their ELC (plus NHL training camp, plus exhibition games, plus possibility of regular season games) just to play a year of NCAA.
The only two things are that they never had the option of NCAA before this year, and that players drafted out of CHL still only have 2 years to get signed before losing their rights. So we probably won't have a great sense of longterm impact for some time.

NHL teams should want immediate clarity they won’t draft a kid top 10 this year and then he’ll go play ncaa for two years and they lose his rights June of 2027. This is especially concerning for them given most players don’t actually play in nhl as U20 players regardless of whether they signed a magic ELC.
 
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I’m pretty sure it was you (if not, I apologize) that posted a video titled “little boy” in response to a post of mine in the Bob McKenzie rankings thread.

Edit: I found it.


You referred to me as the dumbest boy alive. Hate to break it to you, I ain’t a boy. Don’t know how someone who has been posting here for over 11 years could be a boy.
Oh my god you are so dense.

I was not calling YOU the dumbest boy alive. I was referring to the fact that you were going back and forth with several people on a message board in a manner that reminded me of the situation in the video.
 
The only two things are that they never had the option of NCAA before this year, and that players drafted out of CHL still only have 2 years to get signed before losing their rights. So we probably won't have a great sense of longterm impact for some time.
Long-term 100% agree. We can speculate on what the future will look like and agree or disagree on that speculation, but until we see what the new CBA looks like (specifically with ELC’s) and the agreement vis a vis the NHL & CHL.

But for the next 2 drafts, those CHL players did have the choice to go the NCAA route, but chose the CHL instead. Again, I think that matters, and I can’t see any of them not signing ELC if given the opportunity.
 
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I still think most elite US prospects will go to the NCAA and a fair number of elite Canadian CHLers will go to the NCAA. Especially goalies and defense, who need more development time. The elite Canadian CHL forwards could go either way, depends what NHL teams want to do.
The idea that CHL players now being able to play in the NCAA is going to result in elite American prospects bypassing college is illogical and does not deserve the time of day. I wouldn't bother trying to make sense of it because there is none there. You can't reason with someone who is unreasonable.
 
Okay but that's a current list of 04's not currently in the NCAA right?

Correct...NCAA eligible 2004 born players. NZ periodically compiles lists based on birth class. This one was a big undertaking, however, because for the first time it included CHL players as well.
 
What has anybody heard on this year NIL deals ? The rumors online was the Hagens brothers got like 100k , BU got bunch of players and Mooney got a lot from Minny ? Are some of the bigger schools like Michigan Bu Bc ND plan on having budget for it and other schools have zero interest ? thx
 
What has anybody heard on this year NIL deals ? The rumors online was the Hagens brothers got like 100k , BU got bunch of players and Mooney got a lot from Minny ? Are some of the bigger schools like Michigan Bu Bc ND plan on having budget for it and other schools have zero interest ? thx

Rumors are just that. At the risk of being attacked and labeled a fake by those that know little and offer even less, I'll share what I know (not that I am an expert in this matter either btw)

In regards to Mike McMahon's tweets that 1st and 2nd rounders are receiving low six figure deals in college hockey, I asked two player agents that I know personally and they were both shocked hearing that. Why would someone that is plugged into the world of college hockey make such a tweet I asked, well they said in the world of negotiations unscrupulous lawyers (such as themselves they joked) will put information out there in order to drive up the price. Now, they weren't saying that's what happened but they believe that McMahon inadvertently factored in total costs to get that six figure range. So total tuition, room and board plus the Alston money most big programs dole out comes to around 80-85K at schools like B.U. or B.C. If a high end prospect is then offered a 20-25K NIL deal (and that is feasible they said though on the higher end) then voila you have your annual six figure deal. Another person, who I trust as he works in an AD office, did tell me that one of the eastern schools did offer and fund NIL deals to three players worth 50K per year but that was more or less a one off due to special circumstances.

Now I really think there is some confusion to what NIL is and how it's dispersed. The schools do not and cannot offer direct payment in the form of NIL deals (at least not yet, get to that in a second) and the intent behind the whole concept, based on the Alston and O'Bannon suits, is that the NCAA as a governing body cannot limit what a student earns in terms of selling endorsements through their name, image or likeness. So a prominent athlete can sign media endorsements, license deals or even hawk cars at the local dealership for cash payment. Some athletes have become very rich doing this, such as Livvy Dunne, but there is another way athletes can receive money and that is through boosters that are now known as collectives.

The collective aren't directly tied to the school or the AD office but they maintain very close relations. They are set up solicit direct donations and then disperse those donations to athletes for some sort of work concerning the athletes N.I.L. In reality though the athletes perform very little work, such as throwing out a tweet to support the local chicken dinner, and this is essentially pay to play. The vast majority of this money is funneled to the various football programs and in very distant second the basketball teams. The reason why is simple, those are the sports with the most exposure and fans and where most donors want their money going to. Right now there is a complete free for all mega arms race going on within the FBS and that is where the vast majority of those NIL collective deals are going to. This leaves little for hockey. Brandon Naurato doesn't have access to a large pool of money through the collective because all of it, or at least most of it, is being funneled to the football program. A ton of AD's claim this is unsustainable, that it is ruing the sport and that something has to give.....enter the House Settlement.

The House Settlement is an attempt to rein in the collectives by directly paying players. If this goes through, NIL deals worked outside of the the AD's office will be subject to review as to their merit in terms of being truly deals based on endorsements and licensing or if they are just naked money payments masked as NIL. The total expenditures on players will be capped at 22 million for each institution,

Now in relation to hockey, yes a rich donor right now, can say to a school get me a Michael Misa and I will work out a deal worth a million dollars or even a 100k . This hasn't happened but it could but it also unlikely because again, most of these rich donors are focused on football and that has crowded out a lot of that money.

In relation to the CHL and the NCAA, well it's a bit trickier and harder to dole out that money to international students (that's another post entirely).

In short, NIL money is in college hockey but the dollar amounts just aren't that large to compete against say an ELC from the NHL. Could this change, sure but seeing that college hockey is quite niche, I doubt you'll see a lot of money flowing in.
 
The thread went off the rails. A lot of people claiming they know what will end up happening to the landscape of junior hockey, when in reality, nobody knows what lies ahead.
I think it’s been pretty clear so far ;
1, CHL getting lot stronger - got like 60-70 2004 commits already this year !
2, Ushl getting weaker- they will not get most of Canada kids that want to go to college like they did in the past - really high players . You will have some top USA kids go there no doubt . Does USHL turn into Nahl who knows but zero doubt it’s weaker .
3,The BCHL was gaining i thought on USHL as the merger with Alberta top teams plus recruiting from all Canada brought in lot of Canada studs that want to College . This completely blew up on them and so far had large number of kids go to CHL so BCHL is a lot weaker .
4, Nahl had 358 2004 players hoping to get chance of last minute college deal or that’s what the programs told them but almost i think 90% are now going with CHL 2004 players . The Nahl will be a feeder to the div 3 hockey .
5, NCDC - and premier are irrelevant and should end their leagues . Remember , the youth hockey teams pay for the NCDC and that’s a huge cost of money that’s better going back to youth development or lower tuition . I’m USA guy but CHL people are celebrating and USHL are in panic mode .
 
The thread went off the rails. A lot of people claiming they know what will end up happening to the landscape of junior hockey, when in reality, nobody knows what lies ahead.
I think a lot of it will depend on how NCAA coaches approach the new age of recruiting. Will the top end/blue blood programs' coaches approach the CHLers with a more adversarial, cut throat, wanting to "steal" them early from major junior, or will they build relationships with CHL coaches/GMs & try to create pipelines? Brandon Naurato could build a good relationship with Mark and Dale Hunter & create a London to Michigan pipeline instead of fighting over players like they always have. Brad Berry could do the same with Willie Desjardins to build a Medicine Hat to North Dakota pipeline for example as well.

And will depend on what NHL teams think is best for the guys they draft: prior to now, NHL teams had no option of sending their CHL prospects to the NCAA to develop further. The Boston Bruins could funnel their CHLers to local Hockey East universities (Boston University and Boston College mainly) to gain hands on approach to their development, which is what they've already done with a ton of their NCAA route guys already.
 
I think a lot of it will depend on how NCAA coaches approach the new age of recruiting. Will the top end/blue blood programs' coaches approach the CHLers with a more adversarial, cut throat, wanting to "steal" them early from major junior, or will they build relationships with CHL coaches/GMs & try to create pipelines? Brandon Naurato could build a good relationship with Mark and Dale Hunter & create a London to Michigan pipeline instead of fighting over players like they always have. Brad Berry could do the same with Willie Desjardins to build a Medicine Hat to North Dakota pipeline for example as well.

Some CHL and NCAA teams are in the process of doing just that, but don't expect Michigan to be one of them anytime soon and certainly don't expect the Hunters' to develop NHL talent for Michigan either.

The friction right now is the battle for the top 18- and 19-year-old players. A team like Michigan (who incidentally did approach a top OHL program for a development agreement but was rebuffed) wants a top end prospect to play ASAP because they know he will be in the pros by the age of 20 but of course a program like London wants to keep such a player in order to collect the NHL development fee when that player signs from the Knights.

How the NHL restructures the draft, the CHL-NHL agreement and player retention rights will be the final call on all of this.
 
Some CHL and NCAA teams are in the process of doing just that, but don't expect Michigan to be one of them anytime soon and certainly don't expect the Hunters' to develop NHL talent for Michigan either.

The friction right now is the battle for the top 18- and 19-year-old players. A team like Michigan (who incidentally did approach a top OHL program for a development agreement but was rebuffed) wants a top end prospect to play ASAP because they know he will be in the pros by the age of 20 but of course a program like London wants to keep such a player in order to collect the NHL development fee when that player signs from the Knights.

How the NHL restructures the draft, the CHL-NHL agreement and player retention rights will be the final call on all of this.
When will this be all be settled ? I assume CBA ? thx
 
When will this be all be settled ? I assume CBA ? thx

Settled.? Well, it will be a while before a new order arises but how the NHL structures the next CBA will have enough of an impact to paint the basic picture of what this order will look like.

As I've been saying throughout this thread, each development league has their favorite outcome, and all are lobbying for that respective outcome.

Some things we can discern right now. As you summed up, the NAHL, BCHL and USHL will all become weaker. Others like the complete amateur pyramid to the pros are a waiting game.
 
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I think it’s been pretty clear so far ;
1, CHL getting lot stronger - got like 60-70 2004 commits already this year !
2, Ushl getting weaker- they will not get most of Canada kids that want to go to college like they did in the past - really high players . You will have some top USA kids go there no doubt . Does USHL turn into Nahl who knows but zero doubt it’s weaker .
3,The BCHL was gaining i thought on USHL as the merger with Alberta top teams plus recruiting from all Canada brought in lot of Canada studs that want to College . This completely blew up on them and so far had large number of kids go to CHL so BCHL is a lot weaker .
4, Nahl had 358 2004 players hoping to get chance of last minute college deal or that’s what the programs told them but almost i think 90% are now going with CHL 2004 players . The Nahl will be a feeder to the div 3 hockey .
5, NCDC - and premier are irrelevant and should end their leagues . Remember , the youth hockey teams pay for the NCDC and that’s a huge cost of money that’s better going back to youth development or lower tuition . I’m USA guy but CHL people are celebrating and USHL are in panic mode .
If anything the NCDC is in a better position than the NAHL. That league is made up of a lot of local product (particularly in the northeast). If the NAHL proves it will only be a stepping stone to the D3 level then a lot of the northeast kids who left home to play there will simply stay in the northeast and play in the NCDC. My personal outlook is that the CHL will be the #1 route, no questions there. But what happens to the kids that get bumped from the CHL from the influx of talent? They likely go to the USHL. I think you will see a lot more kids stay closer to home to play if they realize the CHL is not a viable option for them.
 
If anything the NCDC is in a better position than the NAHL. That league is made up of a lot of local product (particularly in the northeast). If the NAHL proves it will only be a stepping stone to the D3 level then a lot of the northeast kids who left home to play there will simply stay in the northeast and play in the NCDC. My personal outlook is that the CHL will be the #1 route, no questions there. But what happens to the kids that get bumped from the CHL from the influx of talent? They likely go to the USHL. I think you will see a lot more kids stay closer to home to play if they realize the CHL is not a viable option for them.
The Canadians who get bumped out of the CHL will go to the BCHL, OJHL, AJHL, and some to the USHL. Only so many spots available in the USHL for Canadians.
 
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If anything the NCDC is in a better position than the NAHL. That league is made up of a lot of local product (particularly in the northeast). If the NAHL proves it will only be a stepping stone to the D3 level then a lot of the northeast kids who left home to play there will simply stay in the northeast and play in the NCDC. My personal outlook is that the CHL will be the #1 route, no questions there. But what happens to the kids that get bumped from the CHL from the influx of talent? They likely go to the USHL. I think you will see a lot more kids stay closer to home to play if they realize the CHL is not a viable option for them.
Also a lot of Americans will still end up in USHL, because the USHL traditionally waits around for kids that finish their HS/Prep days and then don't become fulltime junior players until they're done with high school. Very common path with USHL players. CHL teams always have kids hanging around ready to go when they're 17. Can't expect every kid to move to a new country just to possibly stick in a CHL lineup with uncertainty before they're done with high school. Only way players just outright stop going to USHL entirely is if the notable college teams stop recruiting anyone that plays there, at which point CHL goes from one of many options to the only option, and that in turn would lead to a rush of new imports as well. It's hard to fathom though since it's just a junior league, involving 16 year olds, and so it's not too likely you see it treated the same way as the NHL.
 
A lot, if not most of the best Non-NTDP Americans from the USHL will head to the CHL leagues. The best Americans from the NAHL, NCDC and BCHL leagues will come in and take those spots, and the Canadians pushed out/cut from their CHL roster spots or are too good for the lowly CJHL leagues will go to the BCHL and USHL.

The best thing for the NCDC and BCHL to do would be to transition to CHL/USHL feeder leagues and offer spots and ice time to younger players. They are both independent leagues and can sign players at any age from anywhere. The BCHL can sign U16 aged players that are too good for AAA/Prep U18 but not granted ES/early entry into the CHL or USHL and give them a year of junior hockey. NCDC expansion to Canada will also have the same opportunity.

USA Hockey will need to do more work and its due diligence to keep the USHL a still worthwhile path for both teams and players to invest and participate in and prevent any more clubs from seceding to the CHL like Muskegon and Youngstown want to. The barrier coming down has wiped out their NCAA marketability to top prospects and they have a lot of ground to still cover if they want to catch up to the CHL leagues as a peer. The NAHL will be toast and relegated to a D3/ACHA/USports path now.
 
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A lot, if not most of the best Non-NTDP Americans from the USHL will head to the CHL leagues. The best Americans from the NAHL, NCDC and BCHL leagues will come in and take those spots, and the Canadians pushed out/cut from their CHL roster spots or are too good for the lowly CJHL leagues will go to the BCHL and USHL.

The best thing for the NCDC and BCHL to do would be to transition to CHL/USHL feeder leagues and offer spots and ice time to younger players. They are both independent leagues and can sign players at any age from anywhere. The BCHL can sign U16 aged players that are too good for AAA/Prep U18 but not granted ES/early entry into the CHL or USHL and give them a year of junior hockey. NCDC expansion to Canada will also have the same opportunity.

USA Hockey will need to do more work and its due diligence to keep the USHL a still worthwhile path for both teams and players to invest and participate in and prevent any more clubs from seceding to the CHL like Muskegon and Youngstown want to. The barrier coming down has wiped out their NCAA marketability to top prospects and they have a lot of ground to still cover if they want to catch up to the CHL leagues as a peer. The NAHL will be toast and relegated to a D3/ACHA/USports path now.

I wonder if the BCHL goes back to Hockey Canada with hat in hand. They have been completely gutted by the NCAA rule change and because they are independent, unlike the USHL with its transfer fees, they have no recourse when CHL teams comes in and dismantle their rosters. I'm also hearing a bit of buzz on Penticton (the flagship BCHL program) applying for an expansion team in the Dub.
 
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I think it’s been pretty clear so far ;
1, CHL getting lot stronger - got like 60-70 2004 commits already this year !
2, Ushl getting weaker- they will not get most of Canada kids that want to go to college like they did in the past - really high players . You will have some top USA kids go there no doubt . Does USHL turn into Nahl who knows but zero doubt it’s weaker .
3,The BCHL was gaining i thought on USHL as the merger with Alberta top teams plus recruiting from all Canada brought in lot of Canada studs that want to College . This completely blew up on them and so far had large number of kids go to CHL so BCHL is a lot weaker .
4, Nahl had 358 2004 players hoping to get chance of last minute college deal or that’s what the programs told them but almost i think 90% are now going with CHL 2004 players . The Nahl will be a feeder to the div 3 hockey .
5, NCDC - and premier are irrelevant and should end their leagues . Remember , the youth hockey teams pay for the NCDC and that’s a huge cost of money that’s better going back to youth development or lower tuition . I’m USA guy but CHL people are celebrating and USHL are in panic mode .
Really? Who of value has the USHL lost and who of value has the CHL gained?

And why do you not mention that the NCAA could potentially eat into the pool of CHL talent? Maybe won’t make a big difference when all is said and done, but how could anyone be sure at this point?
 
A lot, if not most of the best Non-NTDP Americans from the USHL will head to the CHL leagues. The best Americans from the NAHL, NCDC and BCHL leagues will come in and take those spots, and the Canadians pushed out/cut from their CHL roster spots or are too good for the lowly CJHL leagues will go to the BCHL and USHL.

The best thing for the NCDC and BCHL to do would be to transition to CHL/USHL feeder leagues and offer spots and ice time to younger players. They are both independent leagues and can sign players at any age from anywhere. The BCHL can sign U16 aged players that are too good for AAA/Prep U18 but not granted ES/early entry into the CHL or USHL and give them a year of junior hockey. NCDC expansion to Canada will also have the same opportunity.

USA Hockey will need to do more work and its due diligence to keep the USHL a still worthwhile path for both teams and players to invest and participate in and prevent any more clubs from seceding to the CHL like Muskegon and Youngstown want to. The barrier coming down has wiped out their NCAA marketability to top prospects and they have a lot of ground to still cover if they want to catch up to the CHL leagues as a peer. The NAHL will be toast and relegated to a D3/ACHA/USports path now.
If so, why now? What has changed? Currently they don’t get those players.

And before you say because the CHL is better, not all three leagues. The Q definitely isn’t better.
 

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