Proposal: Chaz Lucius for Justin Barron

[Junohockeyfan]

Since neither player has a particularly big sample size from this season, Here is them compared over the last 2 years. Stanley due to a much deeper blue line and Xhekaj due to still working his way into the league.

WiFi hits more but that is more likely due to the night and day difference in possession rate between the 2 teams. Their Major's per 60 is roughly the same so both fight fairly often.

According to NHL/Edge Stanley's hardest recorded shot is 99.57mph, and Xhekaj's is 102.23mph. Both averaged around 90mph.

Both players recorded top speed are around 21.5mph, which is below league average for top speeds.

Meaner is all subjective. For example Zadorov lays some of the biggest hits in the league but he pretty much never drops the gloves with anyone. Being too aggressive can easily mean you just do stupid things all the time

Xhekaj is 2.5 years younger than Logan Stanley. In 2.5 years, Xhekaj will be well ahead of what Logan Stanley is now. You have to take into account the years of development for young players like Xhekaj. Habs fans are excited about what Xhekaj will become in a few years and not what he is now.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Xhekaj is 2.5 years younger than Logan Stanley. In 2.5 years, Xhekaj will be well ahead of what Logan Stanley is now. You have to take into account the years of development for young players like Xhekaj. Habs fans are excited about what Xhekaj will become in a few years and not what he is now.

Yep I think comparing the two is silly mtl likes X jets want to get rid of Stan as quick as we can. X is seen as a player who plays big, Stan is seen as a guy who is only big.

I think it depends on how well they've progressed. The better players have some measure of self-awareness, and realize when going from one level to the next gave them time to work on their game and improve their weakers spots. Hutson, in 2 NHL games, already showed he has NHL talent... but also that he's going to need to get used to defending against even bigger guys than before.

If they progress well and Hughes insists on holding Kov for a 2nd or 3rd instead of putting him waivers there may be some discord. Not saying there will be, but, that it could. Also, 3rd rd have a low chance of actually ever really improving the team for the less than 2% chance that they could.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Yep I think comparing the two is silly mtl likes X jets want to get rid of Stan as quick as we can. X is seen as a player who plays big, Stan is seen as a guy who is only big.


If they progress well and Hughes insists on holding Kov for a 2nd or 3rd instead of putting him waivers there may be some discord. Not saying there will be, but, that it could. Also, 3rd rd have a low chance of actually ever really improving the team for the less than 2% chance that they could.

I don't think Hughes will be holding onto Kov for a 2nd/3rd. He's there in case the young RHD are not ready and on a cheap contract. I don't think there is any concerns about discourse by holding onto Kovy in case the young guns are not ready. Its a smart play.

If both Reinbacher and Mailloux prove they are NHL ready, then i expect Kovy will be traded for the best return they can get.

At this point in the rebuild, its about putting in players in a position to succeed. If that means playing big minutes in the AHL, then that's what is required. Kovacevic is a placeholder.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I don't think Hughes will be holding onto Kov for a 2nd/3rd. He's there in case the young RHD are not ready and on a cheap contract. I don't think there is any concerns about discourse by holding onto Kovy in case the young guns are not ready. Its a smart play.

If both Reinbacher and Mailloux prove they are NHL ready, then i expect Kovy will be traded for the best return they can get.

At this point in the rebuild, its about putting in players in a position to succeed. If that means playing big minutes in the AHL, then that's what is required. Kovacevic is a placeholder.

I’m just commenting on the need to get value for every piece, never put a player on waivers mentality.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I’m just commenting on the need to get value for every piece, never put a player on waivers mentality.

I think the Habs excess young D all have trade value due to youth and potential. Kovy also has trade value because of his low caphit and is an established bottom pairing D. I don't see any of them being waived.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think the Habs excess young D all have trade value due to youth and potential. Kovy also has trade value because of his low caphit and is an established bottom pairing D. I don't see any of them being waived.

I think all rebuilding teams think their extras are worth the world. Can’t say you are wrong since the Jets just gave a 1st for mono.

 

[Xirik]

Xhekaj is 2.5 years younger than Logan Stanley. In 2.5 years, Xhekaj will be well ahead of what Logan Stanley is now. You have to take into account the years of development for young players like Xhekaj. Habs fans are excited about what Xhekaj will become in a few years and not what he is now.

You HOPE he will be.

There is no absolute that he will be were think he should be in his development, Every players is different in how their development works.

4th or 5th. He's not playing in the NHL and has to pass through waivers next season to be sent down. If Montreal opts to keep him up over more deserving players like Reinbacher or Mailloux they may end up with a Jiricek situation. The difference with Jiricek though is all the guys who were blocking him should be playing in the NHL. I just don't view holding out for a late round pick as more valuable than giving the guys who deserve the spot a chance.

It's definitely a hard balancing act and now as easy to manage as some think it is.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

You HOPE he will be.

There is no absolute that he will be were think he should be in his development, Every players is different in how their development works.

Given that he has had a very promising development curve to date (from being an undrafted player), there is no reason to believe it would just suddenly stop. Especially for big dmen like Xhekaj who's key development years are these next 2 or 3.

There's no absolute that he will be plateaued. In fact,that would be the most unlikely outcome !

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Xhekaj is 2.5 years younger than Logan Stanley. In 2.5 years, Xhekaj will be well ahead of what Logan Stanley is now. You have to take into account the years of development for young players like Xhekaj. Habs fans are excited about what Xhekaj will become in a few years and not what he is now.

Maybe. But the Jets aren't in the draft and development stage. They are trying to contend. Both have relatively similar ceilings as #5/6 defensemen. WiFi might have a slight edge, but nothing that significant.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I think all rebuilding teams think their extras are worth the world. Can’t say you are wrong since the Jets just gave a 1st for mono.

Did i say they are worth the world?

I said that they won't be waived because they don't need to be. They have value.

Maybe. But the Jets aren't in the draft and development stage. They are trying to contend. Both have relatively similar ceilings as #5/6 defensemen. WiFi might have a slight edge, but nothing that significant.

Slight edge? He's over 2.5 years younger and has been developing at a rapid rate. Let's compare him to what Stanely is now (which isn't much) in 2 x years. That's a long period of development. Xhekaj has a huge edge on Stanley.

To illustrate my point, let's compare Matt Coranato to Raphael Harvey Pinard. Similar players. If age and development doesn't matter, then i can make the argument they have similar ceilings.

If the Jets are in compete now mode, they should look for a veteran dman and not a young developing dman like what the Habs have.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Did i say they are worth the world?

I said that they won't be waived because they don't need to be. They have value.


Slight edge? He's over 2.5 years younger and has been developing at a rapid rate. Let's compare him to what Stanely is now (which isn't much) in 2 x years. That's a long period of development. Xhekaj has a huge edge on Stanley.

If the Jets are in compete now mode, they should look for a veteran dman and not a young developing dman like what the Habs have.

No but by value most mean a 1st or equivalent and every team thinks that. I’ve heard similar from la, buffalo, az fans at some point. If every prospect is better than Kov who we established is worth more than a 2 and 3rd and you won’t waive any players to give players with more potential ice time I see a logjam.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

No but by value most mean a 1st or equivalent and every team thinks that. I’ve heard similar from la, buffalo, az fans at some point.

No one thinks that. Value means he can be traded for positive value without having to be waived for nothing or traded with a sweetener.

No one thinks the likes of Struble/Harris have 1st round pick value around the league. At least i don't. As for Xhekaj, i don't know what his value is, but i don't see the Habs trading him given his unique skillset and potential - one we haven't had in decades. Very very unlikely Hughes would entertain a trade for Xhekaj.

Kovacevic is probably worth a 3rd/4th.

 

[JianYang]

Nor sure how porn star names translate at the nhl level.

 

[Adam da bomb]

No one thinks that. Value means he can be traded for positive value without having to be waived for nothing or traded with a sweetener.

No one thinks the likes of Struble/Harris have 1st round pick value around the league. At least i don't. As for Xhekaj, i don't know what his value is, but i don't see the Habs trading him given his unique skillset and potential - one we haven't had in decades. Very very unlikely Hughes would entertain a trade for Xhekaj.

Kovacevic is probably worth a 3rd/4th.

Either way good problem to have to have so many promising pieces

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Either way good problem to have to have so many promising pieces

I agree. I see the Habs advertising Struble/Barron/Harris for forwards of a similar ilk. I don't see them trying to stockpile picks. We already have 24 picks amassed in the next 2 x drafts. lol

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Did i say they are worth the world?

I said that they won't be waived because they don't need to be. They have value.


Slight edge? He's over 2.5 years younger and has been developing at a rapid rate. Let's compare him to what Stanely is now (which isn't much) in 2 x years. That's a long period of development. Xhekaj has a huge edge on Stanley.

To illustrate my point, let's compare Matt Coranato to Raphael Harvey Pinard. Similar players. If age and development doesn't matter, then i can make the argument they have similar ceilings.

If the Jets are in compete now mode, they should look for a veteran dman and not a young developing dman like what the Habs have.

You're using a top 50 prospect as a comparison? I'm done with this conversation

 

[Junohockeyfan]

You're using a top 50 prospect as a comparison? I'm done with this conversation

he's not top-50 to me. He's got an uphill battle to become a top-6 forward. But the point remains. Stick to apples to apples. Comparing Stanley to Xhekaj doesn't make any sense. Xhekaj is over 2.5 years younger.

Glad you are done with the conversation as your comparison and general points didn't have any merit.

 

[pth2]

I’m just commenting on the need to get value for every piece, never put a player on waivers mentality.

I see your point , but Montreal lost Lindstrom on waivers, because there just wasn't room for him. If it comes down to Mailloux or Reinbacher getting NHL icetime over Kovasevic, Kov will go for whatever is available or waivers.

 

[Miller Time]

There's no incentive for the Jets to sell low at this time.

Not sure how Lucius for Barron = "selling low" for the Jets... Curious by what assessment you'd view Lucius as having more current value than Barron?

Barron, 2020 25th OA. 94 NHL games (30pts), 107 AHL games (51pts)

Lucius, 2021 18th OA. 0 NHL games, 29 AHL (18pts)

Drafted 1 year apart, Barron has played 201 pro games to Lucius' 29.

Obviously pro games played and points are not definitive metrics, but at a high level they are relevant in assessing the early post draft progression of both players.

Aside from the additional waiver time, I'm not sure what greater value Lucius would have, or how one would ground that assessment...

Barron appears to be a lock to become an NHL regular, only question is what pairing his ceiling will be.

Lucius remains a ? to getting to the big show, let alone become a regular.

I wouldn't do it 1:1 from Mtls perspective.

 

[Xirik]

Not sure how Lucius for Barron = "selling low" for the Jets... Curious by what assessment you'd view Lucius as having more current value than Barron?

Barron, 2020 25th OA. 94 NHL games (30pts), 107 AHL games (51pts)

Lucius, 2021 18th OA. 0 NHL games, 29 AHL (18pts)

Drafted 1 year apart, Barron has played 201 pro games to Lucius' 29.

Obviously pro games played and points are not definitive metrics, but at a high level they are relevant in assessing the early post draft progression of both players.

Aside from the additional waiver time, I'm not sure what greater value Lucius would have, or how one would ground that assessment...

Barron appears to be a lock to become an NHL regular, only question is what pairing his ceiling will be.

Lucius remains a ? to getting to the big show, let alone become a regular.

I wouldn't do it 1:1 from Mtls perspective.

Lucius has been plagued by injuries and hasn't really gotten much playtime since drafted because of it. He's 21 and coming off 4 season ending injuries in a row. You can't develop at all if you never play.

Now the only see this trade getting done is if the Jets want a NHL ready player now that can help them next season and the one after and the Habs feel like Lucius isn't damaged goods at this point and believe he can hit potential which is WAY higher then Barrons.

Granted Xhekaj was a free asset but if you think he has potential because he was undrafted and didn't get good training even though he's older compared to other prospects then you should be able to see the similarity's with Lucius position.

If the Habs GM wanted to do another Dach/Newhook trade with the Jets 1st or with Barron then Lucius might be a good target.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

he's not top-50 to me. He's got an uphill battle to become a top-6 forward. But the point remains. Stick to apples to apples. Comparing Stanley to Xhekaj doesn't make any sense. Xhekaj is over 2.5 years younger.

Glad you are done with the conversation as your comparison and general points didn't have any merit.

Well good for you for disregarding the opinion of professional amateur scouts like Scott Wheeler and others.

Why don't we take it a step further? Suzuki must be better than Eichel right? Because he's 2 years younger

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Well good for you for disregarding the opinion of professional amateur scouts like Scott Wheeler and others

I thought you were done with the conversation? lol

No one cares about Coronato. I was just making a point that you can't compare young players like Xhekaj who is at a different stage in his development compared to Stanley. But that went over your head...

 

[Miller Time]

Lucius has been plagued by injuries and hasn't really gotten much playtime since drafted because of it. He's 21 and coming off 4 season ending injuries in a row.

"The best ability is availability".

You can't develop at all if you never play.

Indeed.

Now the only see this trade getting done is if the Jets want a NHL ready player now that can help them next season and the one after and the Habs feel like Lucius isn't damaged goods at this point

The Habs believing Lucius can recover fully from his injury setbacks is the bare minimum bar... I'm not sure they agree even if that bar is met. They may well view Barron's ceiling higher.

and believe he can hit potential which is WAY higher then Barrons.

Barron's ceiling remains top pairing RD. Not sure Lucius' ceiling is still top line C. Agree to disagree.

 

[Heldig]

"The best ability is availability".


Indeed.

The Habs believing Lucius can recover fully from his injury setbacks is the bare minimum bar... I'm not sure they agree even if that bar is met. They may well view Barron's ceiling higher.


Barron's ceiling remains top pairing RD. Not sure Lucius' ceiling is still top line C. Agree to disagree.

Top pairing is awfully optimistic. Bottom pairing is much, much more likely.

 

[Miller Time]

Top pairing is awfully optimistic. Bottom pairing is much, much more likely.

The ceiling of any player is the optimistic outlook... The floor the pessimistic one.

Question is wether a prescribed ceiling or floor is an accurate / realistic assessment.

I think Barron's ceiling is a top pairing regular. His floor (barring career altering injury) a 6-7 dman & NHL regular.

It would be optimistic to assume or take for granted to reach his ceiling, but I don't think top pairing D is an unrealistic or unreasonable ceiling based on what he's shown this far as a 22yrar old, 3rd year pro.