Prospect Info: Chase Stillman (#29 overall)

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Throw him in the AHL and see if he can carve out a career, he's got some skills, and he's got a cheap ELC ahead of him. Hopefully he can find a way to become useful as a bottom 6er that can keep up with the rest of the team.

There was a thread on the trade board about NJ trading for Walker Duehr, if Chase can be like Walker Duehr for 3 years at under 1m a year that would be great. Or possibly a Bastian replacement if Bastian gets too pricey.

 

[Guttersniped]

Can I ask you your opinion on Brennan Othmann? Rangers fans seem very high on him but his post draft production seems pretty pedestrian.

I followed the Petes, mostly game to game stay watching and their thread.

Othmann’s stats dropped on the Petes but pretty sure that’s a Petes thing. He was big time player for them in the playoffs. He’s a spicy player, a real little shit lol.

The Rangers have been drafting more physical or “hard to play against” for awhile. Cuylle fits that too.

I’m curious how this draft goes for them.

 

[Clam Jensen]

I followed the Petes, mostly game to game stay watching and their thread.

Othmann’s stats dropped on the Petes but pretty sure that’s a Petes thing. He was big time player for them in the playoffs. He’s a spicy player, a real little shit lol.

The Rangers have been drafting more physical or “hard to play against” for awhile. Cuylle fits that too.

I’m curious how this draft goes for them.

When I would mosey on over to their board during the first round and they were talking roster for next season, Othmann was of course mentioned frequently, but they were all very down on his skating.

 

[Hisch13r]

i’m sure you’re aware of this but there’s some selection bias (reverse survivor bias?) here, because anyone who hasn’t moved out of the CHL by their D+2 year is already less likely to make the NHL (which is the point of the post anyway).

But it sure is a good illustration of how unlikely it is that Stillman gets more than a couple cups of coffee. I think his draft slot and the fact that he projects as a fourth liner basically guarantees he plays NHL games. But if he ever scores an NHL goal I’ll venmo everyone that likes this post a dollar.

Reminds me a lot of the last 29th overall pick and he managed at least a goal. Now beyond that...

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

That's a legit NHL player if he can accomplish that consistently and with some actual impact. Hopefully it works out for him.

yeah but what is “impact?” 30 points a season? 20? Historically, players with Stillman’s CHL counting stats tend to struggle to reach even those modest totals.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

yeah but what is “impact?” 30 points a season? 20? Historically, players with Stillman’s CHL counting stats tend to struggle to reach even those modest totals.

That historically doesn’t mean all that much at this point when evaluating Stillman and impact goes much beyond stats. He has an NHL skillset IMO and his game will translate well. Isn’t and won’t ever be much of a points guy but plays an ideal game for the bottom 6 and should be able to contribute offensively from time to time.

There’s players with similar or better CHL stats than Stillman that don’t have translatable skill sets and won’t ever even come close to an NHL game. That’s why those historical stats and things like NHLe are just a small part of the picture when evaluating a prospect.

He still went a round or so earlier than he should’ve given the lack of upside. But still a solid NHL prospect.

 

[Triumph]

That historically doesn’t mean all that much at this point when evaluating Stillman and impact goes much beyond stats. He has an NHL skillset IMO and his game will translate well. Isn’t and won’t ever be much of a points guy but plays an ideal game for the bottom 6 and should be able to contribute offensively from time to time.

There’s players with similar or better CHL stats than Stillman that don’t have translatable skill sets and won’t ever even come close to an NHL game. That’s why those historical stats and things like NHLe are just a small part of the picture when evaluating a prospect.

He still went a round or so earlier than he should’ve given the lack of upside. But still a solid NHL prospect.

Find me 5 NHL forwards who put up D+2 numbers like this in the CHL who played on an NHL 3rd line or above this season. I'll grant you Mason Marchment, all you've got to do is find the other 4. Shouldn't be difficult because stats don't mean much at this point.

 

[My3Sons]

Find me 5 NHL forwards who put up D+2 numbers like this in the CHL who played on an NHL 3rd line or above this season. I'll grant you Mason Marchment, all you've got to do is find the other 4. Shouldn't be difficult because stats don't mean much at this point.

Well among others Nico Hischier plays on an NHL third line.

 

[AusDev]

Well among others Nico Hischier plays on an NHL third line.

Your commitment is genuinely inspiring (and hilarious).

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Find me 5 NHL forwards who put up D+2 numbers like this in the CHL who played on an NHL 3rd line or above this season. I'll grant you Mason Marchment, all you've got to do is find the other 4. Shouldn't be difficult because stats don't mean much at this point.

Lmao have zero interest in entertaining your pointless request. One because I never said he’s gonna play on the 3rd or above and two because it’s stupid and would be a waste of my time.

And yes stats don’t mean much at this point when evaluating Stillman. Not sure if you misread or something lol but I’ll reiterate for you that it was quite specifically in reference to Stillman. We know he doesn’t put up good numbers, isn’t gonna be a point guy at the NHL level and lacks the upside. So it’s pointless to keep focusing on that. His value is gonna be in what he can hopefully provide in the bottom 6 at some point. Should be fast enough for the NHL game and he plays a hard nose and simple game that should translate. Also has a decent bit of skill even though he doesn’t produce all that much.

 

[tailfins]

Lmao have zero interest in entertaining your pointless request. One because I never said he’s gonna play on the 3rd or above and two because it’s stupid and would be a waste of my time.

And yes stats don’t mean much at this point when evaluating Stillman. Not sure if you misread or something lol but I’ll reiterate for you that it was quite specifically in reference to Stillman. We know he doesn’t put up good numbers, isn’t gonna be a point guy at the NHL level and lacks the upside. So it’s pointless to keep focusing on that. His value is gonna be in what he can hopefully provide in the bottom 6 at some point. Should be fast enough for the NHL game and he plays a hard nose and simple game that should translate. Also has a decent bit of skill even though he doesn’t produce all that much.

Point is simply that Stillman has no shot at being a bottom six player. His only shot is 4th line.

As we’ve seen with the Crash Line, CBGB, and the BMW line, 4th lines can still be meaningful. So saying 4th line isn’t consigning him to uselessness.

But saying “bottom six” is wrong.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Point is simply that Stillman has no shot at being a bottom six player. His only shot is 4th line.

As we’ve seen with the Crash Line, CBGB, and the BMW line, 4th lines can still be meaningful. So saying 4th line isn’t consigning him to uselessness.

But saying “bottom six” is wrong.

I've seen a lot of weird looking hills people stand on, but most are somewhat unoriginal. The amount of time you have spent on this hill and the fact that I never even thought about it as something to argue about is both strange and impressive.

 

[Billdo]

Point is simply that Stillman has no shot at being a bottom six player. His only shot is 4th line.

This cannot be stated as fact. It's kind of absurd to say it so definitively when it's not possible to do so.

 

[Triumph]

Lmao have zero interest in entertaining your pointless request. One because I never said he’s gonna play on the 3rd or above and two because it’s stupid and would be a waste of my time.

And yes stats don’t mean much at this point when evaluating Stillman. Not sure if you misread or something lol but I’ll reiterate for you that it was quite specifically in reference to Stillman. We know he doesn’t put up good numbers, isn’t gonna be a point guy at the NHL level and lacks the upside. So it’s pointless to keep focusing on that. His value is gonna be in what he can hopefully provide in the bottom 6 at some point. Should be fast enough for the NHL game and he plays a hard nose and simple game that should translate. Also has a decent bit of skill even though he doesn’t produce all that much.

You keep saying bottom 6. You are talking about a 3rd line player if you are doing so. This is an antiquated way of talking about how NHL teams are oriented - they are now a top 9 and a bottom 3, mostly. Guys like Travis Moen and Jay Pandolfo don't play 15 minutes a game anymore.

Stats mean a lot when evaluating almost anybody, the only players who I can maybe see an argument for them not are defensive defensemen but even then, that's a hard argument - it's the rare player who succeeds if they don't score in junior and/or the AHL.

I will not be at all surprised if Stillman starts in the ECHL and while that's not a death sentence for his career, it's hard to get out of there on to an NHL roster as a forward.

I've seen a lot of weird looking hills people stand on, but most are somewhat unoriginal. The amount of time you have spent on this hill and the fact that I never even thought about it as something to argue about is both strange and impressive.

I'm the one on the hill, tailfins is just looking up at me and agreeing. It's just not understanding what the NHL is like now.

 

[TrufleShufle]

You keep saying bottom 6. You are talking about a 3rd line player if you are doing so. This is an antiquated way of talking about how NHL teams are oriented - they are now a top 9 and a bottom 3, mostly. Guys like Travis Moen and Jay Pandolfo don't play 15 minutes a game anymore.

Stats mean a lot when evaluating almost anybody, the only players who I can maybe see an argument for them not are defensive defensemen but even then, that's a hard argument - it's the rare player who succeeds if they don't score in junior and/or the AHL.

I will not be at all surprised if Stillman starts in the ECHL and while that's not a death sentence for his career, it's hard to get out of there on to an NHL roster as a forward.



I'm the one on the hill, tailfins is just looking up at me and agreeing. It's just not understanding what the NHL is like now.

Ahh yea you are right. Either way, I'll continue to say bottom 6 though. Not to argue or defend it, but because I don't care at all, bottom 6 means bottom 6 even if it means 4th line and IMO not worth the effort you are putting into saying otherwise. But I respect the fight.

 

[Triumph]

Ahh yea you are right. Either way, I'll continue to say bottom 6 though. Not to argue or defend it, but because I don't care at all, bottom 6 means bottom 6 even if it means 4th line and IMO not worth the effort you are putting into saying otherwise. But I respect the fight.

You cared enough to make this post, though. Nice that you're above it all, has to be kinda cool up there. I hope to someday make a point of how I have no opinions and the opinions people have are either wrong or in the middle. Someday.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

FWIW Byron Bader's model gives Stillman a 1% chance at being a star and a 20% chance at being an NHLer today. His full comps are a bunch of busts, Valterri Filppula, Mikael Samuelsson, Darren Helm, and the incomparable Tom Sestito.

 

[TrufleShufle]

You cared enough to make this post, though. Nice that you're above it all, has to be kinda cool up there. I hope to someday make a point of how I have no opinions and the opinions people have are either wrong or in the middle. Someday.

I have opinions and even opinions on this, but my opinion that it is over the top to try and "correct" everyone who says "bottom 6" instead of 4th line outweighs the need to tell you are wrong about that in the first place. But...

My opinion- it is perfectly acceptable to say bottom 6 because I can't think of a single player who has played solely the 4th line and not been tried on the third for a few games here and there. If he makes it into the league and becomes a staple on the 4th line, odds are he will be put on the 3rd line from time to time, effectively making him a "bottom 6." If he is a scratch and/or spends most of his time in Utica only to come up for random games when needed to fill in on the 4th line, he is then not a 4th liner or bottom 6er, he is a tweener/AHL player getting his cup of coffee.

Second opinion- you don't need to try and "remind" every person who says bottom 6 that its not called that anymore, because odds are very good that they saw you say it before but just don't agree with you.

 

[My3Sons]

Your commitment is genuinely inspiring (and hilarious).

What strikes me as funny stays with me. I recently watched the In the Cage segment from SNL with Samberg and Nic Cage. It's very funny to me. From Cage's self deprecating deadpan to Samberg's exaggerated dialogue. Obviously not the best comedy ever but just landed with me. At this point I've probably watched it five or six times. It's one of the downsides to getting older. We start to repeat ourselves.

 

[Devils731]

This is all lip service because I don’t think the team can totally believe all of what they’re saying but some updates and thoughts on Stillman.

The translation, to me, is “We all realize Stillman likely can’t score enough to be a top guy so we are already trying to prepare him to win an NHL role as an energy player. Stillman has embraced whatever he needs to do to make it.”

Devils offseason updates: Where things stand with free agents Erik Haula, Timo Meier, more

Here are four Devils offseason updates, including the latest on pending free agents Timo Meier and Erik Haula.

www.nj.com

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

FWIW Byron Bader's model gives Stillman a 1% chance at being a star and a 20% chance at being an NHLer today. His full comps are a bunch of busts, Valterri Filppula, Mikael Samuelsson, Darren Helm, and the incomparable Tom Sestito.

not sure if you’re ironically saying bust there, but Tom Sestito feels like Stillman’s ceiling if Stillman shows he’s comfortable fighting in the NHL. I think that’s his one shot at carving out an NHL career.

Tim Sestito is kinda like the other end of the spectrum. Tom could at least score a goal once a season. Tim was just a hard skating and hitting forechecker (basically Stillman’s profile) but didn’t have enough skill to stick as the league moved away from role players.

I’ve said before i think Stillman’s a lock for NHL games, Novo’s recent interview with Dan Mackinnon (Devils offseason updates: Where things stand with free agents Erik Haula, Timo Meier, more) sure makes it seem like they expect him push for a roster spot at some point. But Stillman feels like a Rod Pelley sorta guy whose work ethic endears him to the team and fans right away, but then after 40 games he has 3 assists and no goals on 44 shots and everyone starts to realize why you shouldn’t draft guys like this in the first round.

 

[My3Sons]

not sure if you’re ironically saying bust there, but Tom Sestito feels like Stillman’s ceiling if Stillman shows he’s comfortable fighting in the NHL. I think that’s his one shot at carving out an NHL career.

Tim Sestito is kinda like the other end of the spectrum. Tom could at least score a goal once a season. Tim was just a hard skating and hitting forechecker (basically Stillman’s profile) but didn’t have enough skill to stick as the league moved away from role players.

I’ve said before i think Stillman’s a lock for NHL games, Novo’s recent interview with Dan Mackinnon (Devils offseason updates: Where things stand with free agents Erik Haula, Timo Meier, more) sure makes it seem like they expect him push for a roster spot at some point. But Stillman feels like a Rod Pelley sorta guy whose work ethic endears him to the team and fans right away, but then after 40 games he has 3 assists and no goals on 44 shots and everyone starts to realize why you shouldn’t draft guys like this in the first round.

It's really hard to find guys with all of the NHL attributes of skating, size, physicality, passing, shooting, effort, and IQ after the top of the first round. Teams still seem to overvalue size and physicality compared to skill. At the time my thoughts were that whoever the top RD prospect available at the end of the first round made sense (maybe Morrow was my thought?) and my other thought was maybe Raty if he interviewed decently. It's not like either guy I thought made sense has lit the world on fire even if both would seem to be well ahead of Stillman. Hopefully NJ learned some lessons from the Stillman pick but if any draft was impaired by Covid protocols it was this one.

 

[devilsblood]

What strikes me as funny stays with me. I recently watched the In the Cage segment from SNL with Samberg and Nic Cage. It's very funny to me. From Cage's self deprecating deadpan to Samberg's exaggerated dialogue. Obviously not the best comedy ever but just landed with me. At this point I've probably watched it five or six times. It's one of the downsides to getting older. We start to repeat ourselves.

Cage's tiny Elvis is inspiration I still draw from.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

FWIW Byron Bader's model gives Stillman a 1% chance at being a star and a 20% chance at being an NHLer today. His full comps are a bunch of busts, Valterri Filppula, Mikael Samuelsson, Darren Helm, and the incomparable Tom Sestito.

Using a model that is strictly based on point production isn't a good tool to use for bottom 6 energy players like Chase Stillman.

Bader's model is great to help evaluate offensive players, but that's about it. So I wouldn't read too much into his model for a guy like Chase.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

not sure if you’re ironically saying bust there, but Tom Sestito feels like Stillman’s ceiling if Stillman shows he’s comfortable fighting in the NHL. I think that’s his one shot at carving out an NHL career.

Tim Sestito is kinda like the other end of the spectrum. Tom could at least score a goal once a season. Tim was just a hard skating and hitting forechecker (basically Stillman’s profile) but didn’t have enough skill to stick as the league moved away from role players.

I’ve said before i think Stillman’s a lock for NHL games, Novo’s recent interview with Dan Mackinnon (Devils offseason updates: Where things stand with free agents Erik Haula, Timo Meier, more) sure makes it seem like they expect him push for a roster spot at some point. But Stillman feels like a Rod Pelley sorta guy whose work ethic endears him to the team and fans right away, but then after 40 games he has 3 assists and no goals on 44 shots and everyone starts to realize why you shouldn’t draft guys like this in the first round.

I actually confused Tom and Tim, and was delighted to see his name again whoops. Bader's comp is Tom and I read it as Tim.

I agree they will give him every chance to make the NHL and be a useful bottom 6 player on his ELC, it's on him to take advantage of that opportunity. Basically his skillset will not be one they look to sign in UFA in a 27+ year old body, and they will want guys that can skate and hit like Stillman. They won't want to keep making the Lazar trade over and over again to get that type of game.