Value of: Chances of making the NHL for players drafted( by round)

[dr robbie]

I get why draft rounds are used to split up picks from teams, but it seems silly to use a round as an ordinal cut-off in a data analysis like this doesn't it? A 1st OA pick shouldn't have as much weight as a 30th OA pick. There isn't some huge noticeable gap between pick #32 and pick #33... no more than between 31/32 or 33/34.

 

[cheesymc]

I’d probably care more about the percentage of players ended up a star or core player. Just making it for a few games should be excluded.

 

[Seph]

So trade down from your 1st round pick and acquire 10 7th rounders and you'll have a better chance of an NHLer.



View attachment 692696

10 attempts at 7% odds only gives you a 51.6% chance that at least one would be a success. You'd need at least 16 7th round picks to improve on the odds of at least one of them playing the 10 games (68.7%) over the odds of the 1st rounder.

(Yes, I know it was a joke)

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

I got curious and checked the Ducks from 2008-2018.

1st: 13/13 100%
2nd: 7/16 - 44%
3rd: 3/14 - 21%
4th: 1/8 - 13%
5th: 3/8 - 36%
6th: 1/8 - 13%
7th: 2/7 - 29%

Madden

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

If it were age 20, when would Owen Power (November 2002) have been draft eligible? I know it's only a handful of guys are full time NHL players at 18/19, but they players would probably need a big concession to up the draft age. The agents would hate it since it'd limit the earning potential for the blue chips.

Why? The salary cap dictates spend. The agents are going to get the same cut regardless of how old the person playing is.

And the current players I.e members of the NHLPA aren’t that concerned with prospects, if anything switching to 20 would help current members.

 

[Brodeur]

Why? The salary cap dictates spend. The agents are going to get the same cut regardless of how old the person playing is.

And the current players I.e members of the NHLPA aren’t that concerned with prospects, if anything switching to 20 would help current members.

It only impacts a few players who make it at 18/19, but you'd be taking a decent chunk out of a superstar's bank account. Let's just take Jack Eichel:

Age 18-20: ELC
Age 21-28: 10 million AAV

If you make him wait until Age 20 to get drafted:

Age 20-22: ELC
Age 23-28: 10 million AAV

You subtract 20 million (pre-tax) from his bottom line, perhaps a little more if he's now hitting UFA at 27 instead of 25.

Unless the current players were getting a major concession, they might not be that eager to make things tougher for the next generation of players. Just seems rough for the next superstar. Like "Sorry Connor Bedard, you have to take a financial hit because teams want a bigger sample size to make better draft choices in the mid rounds."

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

It only impacts a few players who make it at 18/19, but you'd be taking a decent chunk out of a superstar's bank account. Let's just take Jack Eichel:

Age 18-20: ELC
Age 21-28: 10 million AAV

If you make him wait until Age 20 to get drafted:

Age 20-22: ELC
Age 23-28: 10 million AAV

You subtract 20 million (pre-tax) from his bottom line, perhaps a little more if he's now hitting UFA at 27 instead of 25.

Unless the current players were getting a major concession, they might not be that eager to make things tougher for the next generation of players. Just seems rough for the next superstar. Like "Sorry Connor Bedard, you have to take a financial hit because teams want a bigger sample size to make better draft choices in the mid rounds."

The current players would get the concession of not competing against 18-20 year olds for 2 years for playing slots.

Sure it hurts the high end players but it helps the mid tier players who will get that salary instead.

There’s more mid tier players than high end players. That’s the basis of most union organizing.