Value of: Chances of making the NHL for players drafted( by round)

[Nevins]

Here is a breakdown on the chances of a player from each round making it to the show:


Round 1: 66.7 percent of picks (120 of 180) played at least 100 games.

Round 2: 26.7 percent of picks (50 of 187) played at least 100 games.

Round 3: 17.2 percent of picks (31 of 180) played at least 100 games.

Round 4: 14.7 percent of picks (27 of 184) played at least 100 games.

Round 5: 8.6 percent of picks (16 of 187) played at least 100 games.

Round 6: 9.8 percent of picks (18 of 182) played at least 100 games.

Round 7: 7 percent of picks (13 of 186) played at least 100 games.

• (based on research from Jamie Bisson)

How the NHL entry draft works: A complete guide - Hockey Answered

Growing up, I have always been fascinated by the drafting of young players into professional sports leagues. I find the whole process of identifying, evaluating, and choosing which player to take captivating. Being a lifelong hockey fan, I am most intrigued about the NHL and how it drafts...

hockeyanswered.com

Click to read more...

 

[Gliff]

I got curious and checked the Ducks from 2008-2018.

1st: 13/13 100%
2nd: 7/16 - 44%
3rd: 3/14 - 21%
4th: 1/8 - 13%
5th: 3/8 - 36%
6th: 1/8 - 13%
7th: 2/7 - 29%

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I feel like with the way the NHL is if you're a 1st rounder you're very likely to sign a contract before the season starts. You're almost certainly going to play games.

While the number of 1st liners is high, the stat is, or will be skewed just because it feels like NHL teams just want to get their 1st rounder to the NHL, or they're more likely to get a 2nd chance somewhere because of draft pedigree.

 

[Nevins]

when I see proposals for the exchange of NHL players for one or more draft picks, these are very often overvalued.....

 

[Silky Johnson]

I feel like with the way the NHL is if you're a 1st rounder you're very likely to sign a contract before the season starts. You're almost certainly going to play games.

While the number of 1st liners is high, the stat is, or will be skewed just because it feels like NHL teams just want to get their 1st rounder to the NHL, or they're more likely to get a 2nd chance somewhere because of draft pedigree.

Yeah, probably has nothing to do with talent evaluation...

...or maybe NHL scouts are the highest paid in their field and good at what they do. When looking at distribution of talent anywhere, it is actually easier to determine outliers at the top of a curve as they stand out more. The fact that this data indicates a fairly consistent decrease in success as the draft progresses shows that NHL Scouts/Teams are pretty good a sorting out the mushy middle - which is really hard to do.

 

[Hockeyholic]

NFL you get 4th and 5th rounders frequently becoming pro bowlers.

I don't think there will be a 6th round NHL superstar in NHL ala Brady 6th round in NFL.

 

[Pistol Petey]

NFL you get 4th and 5th rounders frequently becoming pro bowlers.

I don't think there will be a 6th round NHL superstar in NHL ala Brady 6th round in NFL.

Both Datsyuk and Lundqvist got drafted in the 6th round.

 

[WarriorofTime]

NFL you get 4th and 5th rounders frequently becoming pro bowlers.

I don't think there will be a 6th round NHL superstar in NHL ala Brady 6th round in NFL.

Kaprizov went 5th round... like not many drafts ago.

There will be always be surprises.

 

[Djp]

Here is a breakdown on the chances of a player from each round making it to the show:


Round 1: 66.7 percent of picks (120 of 180) played at least 100 games.

Round 2: 26.7 percent of picks (50 of 187) played at least 100 games.

Round 3: 17.2 percent of picks (31 of 180) played at least 100 games.

Round 4: 14.7 percent of picks (27 of 184) played at least 100 games.

Round 5: 8.6 percent of picks (16 of 187) played at least 100 games.

Round 6: 9.8 percent of picks (18 of 182) played at least 100 games.

Round 7: 7 percent of picks (13 of 186) played at least 100 games.

• (based on research from Jamie Bisson)

How the NHL entry draft works: A complete guide - Hockey Answered

Growing up, I have always been fascinated by the drafting of young players into professional sports leagues. I find the whole process of identifying, evaluating, and choosing which player to take captivating. Being a lifelong hockey fan, I am most intrigued about the NHL and how it drafts...

hockeyanswered.com

Making 100 games isn’t much.200 is a better measure.

I don’t know what period we’re analyzed here.

thr 1st and 2nd round needs to be split up from say the 12 vs 13-23 vs 24-40 vs 40-50 Vs 51-65 vs 66-80 vs 80-100

you also need to split out goalies vs skaters.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

The league would be better if players were drafted at 19 or 20. It’ll never happen though.

 

[dirtydanglez]

I got curious and checked the Ducks from 2008-2018.

1st: 13/13 100%
2nd: 7/16 - 44%
3rd: 3/14 - 21%
4th: 1/8 - 13%
5th: 3/8 - 36%
6th: 1/8 - 13%
7th: 2/7 - 29%

those are insane stats

 

[Brodeur]

when I see proposals for the exchange of NHL players for one or more draft picks, these are very often overvalued.....

It depends on the context. A trade at the deadline is going to be different than a trade a week before free agency or one the middle of August.

Ie, would you give up a 3rd rounder for a proven bottom six NHL forward because it's a long shot that the 3rd rounder turns into an NHL player? Or would you keep the pick and try to sign a comparable free agent?

And it's not unusual to see some of the proposals ignore what the other team has currently or on the horizon and/or the other team's cap situation. My coworker is a big Penguins fan but he doesn't have a ton of knowledge about other teams. I remember him being adamant that Winnipeg ought to trade a 1st or top prospect for Marc-Andre Fleury circa 2016. I told him that seemed unlikely since they had a young Connor Hellebuyck and he was like "Who's that?"

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

So trade down from your 1st round pick and acquire 10 7th rounders and you'll have a better chance of an NHLer.

 

[Brodeur]

NFL you get 4th and 5th rounders frequently becoming pro bowlers.

I don't think there will be a 6th round NHL superstar in NHL ala Brady 6th round in NFL.

The NFL is so specialized by position. The Brady 6 documentary happened to pop up in my YouTube feed today. Brady was the 7th QB selected in his draft class. I don't think we would be shocked if the 7th drafted goalie or defenseman ended up being a perennial All Star, ie Erik Karlsson was the 7th D taken in 2008. New England kept Brady as a #4QB as a rookie which is peculiar. The documentary noted that they weren't necessarily looking to draft a QB that year since they already had three under contract.

And does Brady end up being Brady if he's put on another team? The Chargers were looking to draft a late round QB that year and had three picks in the sixth round (#184, #203, #205). Allegedly head coach Mike Riley was pitching the GM on taking Brady as Riley had unsuccessfully recruited Brady several years earlier when he was at Oregon State. Unfortunately the GM decided to go with a defender with #184 and then told Riley they could take Brady with one of the next picks. New England took Brady at #199. San Diego took a QB named JaJuan Seider at #205 and cut him after training camp.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

NFL you get 4th and 5th rounders frequently becoming pro bowlers.

I don't think there will be a 6th round NHL superstar in NHL ala Brady 6th round in NFL.

Jesper Bratt in NJ was a 6th rounder. Looking like one of the best young wingers in the game.

Ullmark in Boston was a 6th rounder. Has about a 50/50 of winning the Vezina vs Sorokin.

Jamie Benn was a 5th rounder and once lead the league in scoring.

Absolutely outliers but we do see some late round steals. More so maybe with goalies.

 

[Jojalu]

I got curious and checked the Ducks from 2008-2018.

1st: 13/13 100%
2nd: 7/16 - 44%
3rd: 3/14 - 21%
4th: 1/8 - 13%
5th: 3/8 - 36%
6th: 1/8 - 13%
7th: 2/7 - 29%

Really good late round drafting!

 

[UglyPuckling]

TSN had an article on their website a few years back that was like this. It had a little more detail, stats & breakdowns like which draftees played top 6 forward or top 4 defense, etc.

The 2017 article was written by Scott Cullen and it was called "Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Value".

 

[4thline]

TSN had an article on their website a few years back that was like this. It had a little more detail, stats & breakdowns like which draftees played top 6 forward or top 4 defense, etc.

The 2017 article was written by Scott Cullen and it was called "Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Value".

Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Values - TSN.ca

Scott Cullen breaks down historical pick value from the NHL Draft, looking at 25 drafts from 1990 through 2014.

stg.tsn.9c9media.ca

 

[Brodeur]

Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Values - TSN.ca

Scott Cullen breaks down historical pick value from the NHL Draft, looking at 25 drafts from 1990 through 2014.

stg.tsn.9c9media.ca

Definitely a better sample size, although maybe a pet peeve that it should be broken up by CBA. The pre-2005 rules were a little quirky by today's standards.

The early 90's drafts still had a rule about teams only being to draft first time eligible Europeans in the first three rounds (unless they had a certain games played criteria). And then there was that massive one time influx of Russian players after USSR disbanded in 1991. Before 2005, all Europeans had to be drafted before entering the NHL so it wasn't uncommon to see a few guys in their mid-to-late 20's (sometimes even their 30s) get drafted. Guys like Artemi Panarin, Andrei Kuzmenko, and Sergei Bobrovsky wouldn't have been free agents with the old rules.

 

[SomeDude]

Really good late round drafting!

Probably a combination of good drafting and playing young players during a rebuild that wouldn’t get a chance on a good team.

 

[Artemi Panarin]

The league would be better if players were drafted at 19 or 20. It’ll never happen though.

I don't doubt it but would the NHLPA ever approve such a thing?

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I don't doubt it but would the NHLPA ever approve such a thing?

I don’t see why the current players would object.

 

[Brodeur]

I don’t see why the current players would object.

If it were age 20, when would Owen Power (November 2002) have been draft eligible? I know it's only a handful of guys are full time NHL players at 18/19, but they players would probably need a big concession to up the draft age. The agents would hate it since it'd limit the earning potential for the blue chips.

 

[WatchfulElm]

I got curious and checked the Ducks from 2008-2018.

1st: 13/13 100%
2nd: 7/16 - 44%
3rd: 3/14 - 21%
4th: 1/8 - 13%
5th: 3/8 - 36%
6th: 1/8 - 13%
7th: 2/7 - 29%

Habs 2008-2018

1st : 7/10 - 70%
2nd : 3/11 - 27%
3rd : 1/13 - 7%
4th : 1/12 - 8%
5th : 2/12 - 17%
6th : 1/7 - 14%
7th : 1/10 - 10%
Total : 16/75 - 21%

No wonder why Timmins was fired.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

when I see proposals for the exchange of NHL players for one or more draft picks, these are very often overvalued.....

lol what a terrible conclusion to gather from an equally poor "study"