Proposal: CGY-CAR

[GIN ANTONIC]

From various rumors, it seems like Martinook is the backup plan for a lot of teams if they miss on Dakota Joshua in FA. He'd be crazy to not wait for the offers as it's really probably his one good chance to get  paid and we'd be crazy to match those offers if they come, as we have a lot of areas to address.

Noesen is someone I could see returning, but not certain. He too could be a beneficiary of someone's loose wallet.

It's totally possible he leaves but Martinook is a big part of the room and those glue guys have typically been treated well by Rod and the org in general. Could see him staying out of comfort and security maybe if we offer him enough years.

 

[NotOpie]

It's totally possible he leaves but Martinook is a big part of the room and those glue guys have typically been treated well by Rod and the org in general. Could see him staying out of comfort and security maybe if we offer him enough years.

Exactly this. He's integrated into the community. He's raising his family here. Plus there's a cost to moving. He's due a raise, but he's one of the two or three Canes UFAs that might take a team friendly deal.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

I’m worried about the Canes depth in general but if they just signed their rfa’s and Fast is healthy they’d have 11 forwards as is. Kk and Necas are two of them though, and at least Necas seems to be on his way out. I agree with the previous poster that I don’t expect any of the ufa’s to come back anywhere on the roster as that’s the expectation the management has out forth based on their actions. When someone is going to get extended it’s like Slavin right now, early and well publicized. If it makes it to the end of the season and you haven’t heard much then they’re probably gone. I could generally see someone like Martinook or Noesen staying because they’d be cheaper but there’s a media push out there that guys like that are going to get paid this off season so they’re not coming back. We don’t overpay ufa’s to stay, we don’t give them long term deals. Aho was young enough to justify it and he’s the man on the team so he got one, honestly I’m a little surprised Slavin is getting one despite his importance to the team.

Ya that’s fair. I completely respect the no long term UFA deals mantra and think it’s the right way to go for the most part, but imo Slavin is so essential to your team’s success that he should be an exception.

Having said that, though, I think you guys are gonna miss guys like Martinook and Noesen more than you’re giving credit for. They obviously aren’t top-6 guys but your depth was such a strength for you and their production is very impressive given their limited minutes. That’s why I think you guys will need to replace them in some capacity (not saying it has to be Mangiapane, but maybe a similar UFA) if you wanna run it back and have the same success.

No. We're good at finding undervalued assets and we have a deep system of guys who have earned a "cup of coffee and a look."

I'm also very comfortable with next year being a "step back and retool" year.

Your management is definitely great at finding undervalued assets and getting maximum value out of everyone. But I still think you’re understating how much you’re gonna miss those key depth guys.

Also, I don’t really understand why you’re comfortable with taking a “step back and retool year.” Imo your cup window is legit right now, and the team is way too good to miss playoffs and get a high pick. Why waste a year while Slavin Orlov and Burns are 30+ and all getting older? I know you have some high-end d prospects coming in, but wouldn’t you ideally wanna compete while you have a great mix of established vets and great ELC prospects to fill the gaps? Your D could look substantially worse in 2 years when all those older guys regress, and you know you have a contender-level D right now, so I don’t understand this whole wait and see approach. Just my opinion of course, but I think if that game 7 third period went differently this would be a much different conversation.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Carolina's depth will take a hit, but it was abnormal last year. 23-24 was their peak total talent roster because of all of those 2nd contracts and Jarvis' ELC. Hence, they had a defender the caliber of Orlov on the 3rd pair and a Top 6 forward in the Bottom 6 at full health.

Sometimes, it's the team after the go for it one that breaks through. The 2009 Pens won after losing Hossa and Malone to free agency, replacing them with Satan and Fedotenko. The Caps had an exodus of talent in the Summer of 2017 (Johansson, Williams, Alzner, Shattenkirk) and won the cup the next year. Florida has gone to back to back Finals after the Giroux/Chiarot all-in deadline.

If you were to rank the teams under Brind'Amour, the two that went the furthest are arguably 5 and 6 on paper.

 

[Chan790]

Also, I don’t really understand why you’re comfortable with taking a “step back and retool year.” Imo your cup window is legit right now, and the team is way too good to miss playoffs and get a high pick. Why waste a year while Slavin Orlov and Burns are 30+ and all getting older? I know you have some high-end d prospects coming in, but wouldn’t you ideally wanna compete while you have a great mix of established vets and great ELC prospects to fill the gaps? Your D could look substantially worse in 2 years when all those older guys regress, and you know you have a contender-level D right now, so I don’t understand this whole wait and see approach. Just my opinion of course, but I think if that game 7 third period went differently this would be a much different conversation.

Because I think this season was our high-water mark of this group and we're not good enough to be a real Cup contender next season as opposed to a team that scrapes into the playoffs. This was our Cup window...teams get f***ed when they don't know when to close the window and try to stretch it out.

I also feel like we're going to get better "futures" offers than "nows" on Necas and there's little chance we're getting even zero value on KK, so we're better running it back next year and seeing if he can either figure it out or at-least restore some value. Nadeau and Blake both are better suited seasoning in the AHL next season, Nikishin probably comes over after next season's KHL playoffs. In all, our future looks brighter than our present and any moves we make should be with that focus.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Carolina's depth will take a hit, but it was abnormal last year. 23-24 was their peak total talent roster because of all of those 2nd contracts and Jarvis' ELC. Hence, they had a defender the caliber of Orlov on the 3rd pair and a Top 6 forward in the Bottom 6 at full health.

Sometimes, it's the team after the go for it one that breaks through. The 2009 Pens won after losing Hossa and Malone to free agency, replacing them with Satan and Fedotenko. The Caps had an exodus of talent in the Summer of 2017 (Johansson, Williams, Alzner, Shattenkirk) and won the cup the next year. Florida has gone to back to back Finals after the Giroux/Chiarot all-in deadline.

If you were to rank the teams under Brind'Amour, the two that went the furthest are arguably 5 and 6 on paper.

Ya that’s a fair argument. I was thinking of the Caps too. I would argue that the Panthers did load up again this year though and their improved D depth is a major reason why. But I generally agree that those non-core pieces can be replaced and shouldn’t be overpaid as pending FA’s.

My only counter-argument would be that these teams that won after a re-tool are more of an exception than the rule. Teams like Tampa x2/Colorado/Vegas/current Florida loaded up and had insane depth that allowed them to push through. All that to say I don’t quite agree that you can expect to have the same success when losing that much depth. 4 top-9 wingers and a top-4 dman is a ton. But your management is amazing so they’ll figure it out and probably find some cheap depth guys to replace them for the most part. I just think cap space will be your biggest priority and every penny will count long term, so moving or at least buying out KK may be necessary if nobody will take him. And if that is the case, I don’t get why you’d wanna wait a year to load up when your D is ready now.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Because I think this season was our high-water mark of this group and we're not good enough to be a real Cup contender next season as opposed to a team that scrapes into the playoffs. This was our Cup window...teams get f***ed when they don't know when to close the window and try to stretch it out.

I also feel like we're going to get better "futures" offers than "nows" on Necas and there's little chance we're getting even zero value on KK, so we're better running it back next year and seeing if he can either figure it out or at-least restore some value. Nadeau and Blake both are better suited seasoning in the AHL next season, Nikishin probably comes over after next season's KHL playoffs. In all, our future looks brighter than our present and any moves we make should be with that focus.

I honestly completely disagree on both points.

Obviously you’re the Canes fan, but I think you guys were a fluke third period breakdown away from being a cup team. I’m shocked that you think you can’t still be a real cup contender. You’re definitely a top-5 team in the league and a goalie upgrade away from beating the Rangers and going toe to toe with Florida. One bounce or better injury luck and this is a much different convo. You guys are right there, I don’t understand why you’d wanna take a step back now. This isn’t like Isles or Minnesota where you’re stuck in the middle of the pack. You’re a perennial contender with great pieces in their prime and so imo your window is right now.

And I also don’t agree that your future is brighter than your present. Nadeau and Nikishin and Morrow seem great, especially Nikishin. But Slavin and Burns and Orlov are not young, and losing Pesce and Skjei will hurt a lot. That’s your entire D core. In two years it could be just Slavin Chatfield and Nikishin, which is not nearly as deep as it could be this year if Nikishin were to join the team near the playoffs on his ELC. Imo you wanna take advantage in these next few years while you still have the young ELC guys that can come in and supplement your already great team.

Not to mention your forward depth taking a big hit if you let all your depth walk and then have to move Necas.

I respect your long-term mindset and your hesitance to overcommit in the short term, but I really think you aren’t giving your team enough credit for how close they really are. I’d be going all in for the next 2-3 years if I was you, because you never know how things are gonna change and it’s not every day your team is stacked and a clear top-5/7 team year-in and year-out.

 

[LakeLivin]

It’s $850k a year. Less than 1% of the cap today; it might mean a 22 man roster instead of 23.

Carolina paid $6.25 million in cap space for a first round pick in the Marleau deal. That’s how they value a late first (had to assume Toronto’s 2021 1st would be late.) A late first and a good prospect for $3M in cap space and a rental doesn’t add up.

Really? Are you worried about the forward depth going into the season?

Ya that’s fair. Carolina paid $6.25 mil for one year of Marleau though, Kotka’s buyout would still be over 10 mil just amortized over like 12 years. But I understand not being concerned about it too much and why this type of deal doesn’t make too much sense, I just thought there was more desperation to move KK and didn’t think those rumors of purported interest in him necessarily meant he’d be moved for positive value

Common misconception, but the Marleau buyout actually only cost Carolina $3.8m because Toronto paid his bonus.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Ya that’s a fair argument. I was thinking of the Caps too. I would argue that the Panthers did load up again this year though and their improved D depth is a major reason why. But I generally agree that those non-core pieces can be replaced and shouldn’t be overpaid as pending FA’s.

My only counter-argument would be that these teams that won after a re-tool are more of an exception than the rule. Teams like Tampa x2/Colorado/Vegas/current Florida loaded up and had insane depth that allowed them to push through. All that to say I don’t quite agree that you can expect to have the same success when losing that much depth. 4 top-9 wingers and a top-4 dman is a ton. But your management is amazing so they’ll figure it out and probably find some cheap depth guys to replace them for the most part. I just think cap space will be your biggest priority and every penny will count long term, so moving or at least buying out KK may be necessary if nobody will take him. And if that is the case, I don’t get why you’d wanna wait a year to load up when your D is ready now.

Florida replaced Gudas, Staal and Mahura (in terms of the lineup) with Mikkola, Ekman-Larsson and Kulikov, three free agents making $5.75 mil combined. The hole that Chiarot was meant to fill, 2nd pair LHD, is still there. It just wasn't preventative for them.

The big add up front (EDIT: at the deadline) was a past his prime Tarasenko for a couple mid-round picks.

...

$4.82 mil or $3.9 mil (the 2C position is not settled) on the 4th line is an inefficiency. Perfect utilization of cap is not a necessity. The Panthers had Knight chewing up $3 mil+ in space this season. Erik Johnson was a $6 mil 3rd pairing D for those Avs. Edmundson was a $3 mil healthy scratch at the very end for the Blues.

Canes have no buyouts, no retained salary and no bonus overages. The allocation on goaltending is low. I think they'll be okay if they want to move forward with the status quo.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Florida replaced Gudas, Staal and Mahura with Mikkola, Ekman-Larsson and Kulikov, three free agents making $5.75 mil combined. The hole that Chiarot was meant to fill, 2nd pair LHD, is still there. It just wasn't preventative for them.

The big add up front was a past his prime Tarasenko for a couple mid-round picks.

...

$4.82 mil or $3.9 mil (the 2C position is not settled) on the 4th line is an inefficiency. Perfect utilization of cap is not a necessity. The Panthers had Knight chewing up $3 mil+ in space this season. Erik Johnson was a $6 mil 3rd pairing D for those Avs. Edmundson was a $3 mil healthy scratch at the very end for the Blues.

Canes have no buyouts, no retained salary and no bonus overages. The allocation on goaltending is low. I think they'll be okay if they want to move forward with the status quo.

That’s a lot of turnover… half your d core coming off the cup finals? Mikkola and OEL have been great and a big difference from last year’s run. Feel like you’re undervaluing Evan Rodrigues here too, not many guys can just step onto a top-line and produce when it matters and not look out of place (Rodrigues is always so underrated). Between Rodrigues, Tarasenko, Okposo, OEL, Kulikov and Mikkola, that’s loading up on vets.

Ultimately, my point is that you guys are gonna have to replace the quality guys you’re losing (Skjei, Pesce, Martinook, Teravainen, not to mention Guentzel) to stay at the same level, and I don’t know why you wouldn’t wanna put every penny towards that when you were just one insanely unlucky period away from the conference finals. Of course I agree you can’t expect perfect cap optimization, and there will always be guys that are overpaid and underpaid, but I just am a bit surprised at how many Canes fans are content watching all these quality players walk knowing how close you were to the cup. I respect the long-term mindset, but at a point the urgency should take over to win while Slavin and the D core is still world class imo.

 

[treple13]

That’s a lot of turnover… half your d core coming off the cup finals? Mikkola and OEL have been great and a big difference from last year’s run. Feel like you’re undervaluing Evan Rodrigues here too, not many guys can just step onto a top-line and produce when it matters and not look out of place (Rodrigues is always so underrated). Between Rodrigues, Tarasenko, Okposo, OEL, Kulikov and Mikkola, that’s loading up on vets.

Ultimately, my point is that you guys are gonna have to replace the quality guys you’re losing (Skjei, Pesce, Martinook, Teravainen, not to mention Guentzel) to stay at the same level, and I don’t know why you wouldn’t wanna put every penny towards that when you were just one insanely unlucky period away from the conference finals. Of course I agree you can’t expect perfect cap optimization, and there will always be guys that are overpaid and underpaid, but I just am a bit surprised at how many Canes fans are content watching all these quality players walk knowing how close you were to the cup. I respect the long-term mindset, but at a point the urgency should take over to win while Slavin and the D core is still world class imo.

In a 32 team league it's really, really hard to build a team that even gets close. If you're there, you should be doing everything in your power to stay there.

 

[Chrispy]

Common misconception, but the Marleau buyout actually only cost Carolina $3.8m because Toronto paid his bonus.

In cash, yes. But Marleau still took up that full cap hit for the 19-20 season because he was a 35+ buyout.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

That’s a lot of turnover… half your d core coming off the cup finals? Mikkola and OEL have been great and a big difference from last year’s run. Feel like you’re undervaluing Evan Rodrigues here too, not many guys can just step onto a top-line and produce when it matters and not look out of place (Rodrigues is always so underrated). Between Rodrigues, Tarasenko, Okposo, OEL, Kulikov and Mikkola, that’s loading up on vets.

To me, that's tweaking to find better fits than loading up. Their cap structure is very similar. Mikkola in, Gudas out. Same cap. Rodrigues in, Duclair out. Same cap.

Ultimately, my point is that you guys are gonna have to replace the quality guys you’re losing (Skjei, Pesce, Martinook, Teravainen, not to mention Guentzel) to stay at the same level, and I don’t know why you wouldn’t wanna put every penny towards that when you were just one insanely unlucky period away from the conference finals. Of course I agree you can’t expect perfect cap optimization, and there will always be guys that are overpaid and underpaid, but I just am a bit surprised at how many Canes fans are content watching all these quality players walk knowing how close you were to the cup. I respect the long-term mindset, but at a point the urgency should take over to win while Slavin and the D core is still world class imo.

The depth they had last year was a one-off. They've competed for President's Trophies and won playoff rounds with less.

A 1st round pick is not just about the long-term view. It is also an important trade asset for a playoff team. If Rasmus Andersson becomes available next deadline and the Canes want to pursue him, they'll need that pick.

Of all of the options of the table with Kotkaniemi, paying to dump is the least likely. Keep him, rotate his cap to a different position via an undesirable contract swap or buy him out.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

To me, that's tweaking to find better fits than loading up. Their cap structure is very similar. Mikkola in, Gudas out. Same cap. Rodrigues in, Duclair out. Same cap.

That’s fair, but call it whatever you want (loading up or tweaking) and that’s my point. If you wanna replace all this quality depth, you’re gonna need every penny. Not saying re-sign the same guys, but valuable depth pieces are critical.

The depth they had last year was a one-off. They've competed for President's Trophies and won playoff rounds with less.

A 1st round pick is not just about the long-term view. It is also an important trade asset for a playoff team. If Rasmus Andersson becomes available next deadline and the Canes want to pursue him, they'll need that pick.

Of all of the options of the table with Kotkaniemi, paying to dump is the least likely. Keep him, rotate his cap to a different position via an undesirable contract swap or buy him out.

Understandable. I get not wanting to move the 1st at all, and imo buying him out seems like the best option although it comes with long-term consequence (albeit under 1 mil per year so whatever). I just think there should be urgency to re-create similar depth so that you can go on another run, and I don’t really get the ‘we’ve done better with less depth’ mindset because that should never be the goal. If I’m Tulsky I’m seriously considering every move to save every penny this off-season so that I can go for the cup next year while my D is still elite.

 

[bleedgreen]

Ya that’s fair. I completely respect the no long term UFA deals mantra and think it’s the right way to go for the most part, but imo Slavin is so essential to your team’s success that he should be an exception.

Having said that, though, I think you guys are gonna miss guys like Martinook and Noesen more than you’re giving credit for. They obviously aren’t top-6 guys but your depth was such a strength for you and their production is very impressive given their limited minutes. That’s why I think you guys will need to replace them in some capacity (not saying it has to be Mangiapane, but maybe a similar UFA) if you wanna run it back and have the same success.


Your management is definitely great at finding undervalued assets and getting maximum value out of everyone. But I still think you’re understating how much you’re gonna miss those key depth guys.

Also, I don’t really understand why you’re comfortable with taking a “step back and retool year.” Imo your cup window is legit right now, and the team is way too good to miss playoffs and get a high pick. Why waste a year while Slavin Orlov and Burns are 30+ and all getting older? I know you have some high-end d prospects coming in, but wouldn’t you ideally wanna compete while you have a great mix of established vets and great ELC prospects to fill the gaps? Your D could look substantially worse in 2 years when all those older guys regress, and you know you have a contender-level D right now, so I don’t understand this whole wait and see approach. Just my opinion of course, but I think if that game 7 third period went differently this would be a much different conversation.

I don’t know that we’re comfortable as much as just accepting that this may be a step back. There’s only so much cap space and we’ve had a deep team for a few years. The way the team does business we know these guys aren’t coming back. Do I agree with that? No not really, but the people running this team have done a good job so far. How they approach this next build will tell us a lot about what they really are as a group. It’s hard to turn on them with the success we’ve had, even if you believe another style or group could’ve done similarly well with the raw materials this management inherited.

I don’t think it’ll be easy to replace Martinook and Noesen but it doesn’t make sense to overpay the bottom six when you’re struggling to define the top six, and until Chatfield signed we didn’t have a single defenseman signed past next off season. Not one. That’s a lot of contracts to figure out and we have to face it as a fan base - this past build had its chance and didn’t figure it all out. It’s an opportunity to move forward as much as a chance we step back. Maybe the step back is only for a year if it exists at all.