Line Combos: CBJ Roster Discussion/Line Combos/Injury Report

[cbjthrowaway]

Risk aversion and asymmetric information. GMs don't want to risk being "that idiot who traded for a broken player". And what does it tell you if a team with a frequently injured player is very willing to trade him to you?

as talented and likable of a player as he is, he's often out of the lineup, and streaky when he's in it. the tools are louder than the production. and the FO is reportedly frustrated with the player.

this FO quickly dropped a bunch of guys (laine, boqvist, texier, jiricek, bean) who checked similar boxes (talent, uncertainty, tension) precisely because of the risk aversion you mentioned. not necessarily the same situation across the board, but there's some overlap.

if they keep chinakhov, they have a piece that:

1. is cheap for one more year, when they won't need the cap space
2. is capable of playing like a top six forward, but
3. is streaky when he's in the lineup
4. is often out of the lineup

there are plenty of teams that will want to bet on his upside as a supporting piece, especially given the cap hit. for the jackets, he's the means to an end. they can move him to fill a need without opening another.

assuming no provorov extension, they need a top four defenseman. imo they also need another top six forward. i'd argue that bundling chinakhov with a 1st + prospect to go big game hunting for one of those needs, then filling the second via UFA creates a stronger roster than keeping him and only filling one of those needs externally.

 

[majormajor]

as talented and likable of a player as he is, he's often out of the lineup, and streaky when he's in it. the tools are louder than the production. and the FO is reportedly frustrated with the player.

this FO quickly dropped a bunch of guys (laine, boqvist, texier, jiricek, bean) who checked similar boxes (talent, uncertainty, tension) precisely because of the risk aversion you mentioned. not necessarily the same situation across the board, but there's some overlap.

if they keep chinakhov, they have a piece that:

1. is cheap for one more year, when they won't need the cap space
2. is capable of playing like a top six forward, but
3. is streaky when he's in the lineup
4. is often out of the lineup

there are plenty of teams that will want to bet on his upside as a supporting piece, especially given the cap hit. for the jackets, he's the means to an end. they can move him to fill a need without opening another.

assuming no provorov extension, they need a top four defenseman. imo they also need another top six forward. i'd argue that bundling chinakhov with a 1st + prospect to go big game hunting for one of those needs, then filling the second via UFA creates a stronger roster than keeping him and only filling one of those needs externally.

By all means go trade for a big defensive upgrade (I'm not persuaded that we should move trade assets for a top six forward), I just don't think Chinakhov's trade value is high enough to be the best candidate for that sort of trade. Obviously a more complicated case, but we had to pay to move Laine, largely because of his injury history. A team acquiring Chinakhov is going to think through why we'd be so willing to move him and what it's going to look like if he can't play for them.

 

[KJ Dangler]

It is true that a lot of players have stopped scoring as much as they usually do when Sillinger is on the bench. Make of that what you will.

I don't know which line you are referring to. What line was he on?

Plain and simple to see .. with Boone trying to center your 2nd line , they basically have become a one line team , and that’s usually the Fantilli line .
When Sillinger went down it was a huge blow to our offense . Basically to beat us now , you focus on shutting down the Fantilli line

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Not sure if this is just so Elvis can stay home another night with his new baby while one of the others plays the 2nd night of the B2B.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Not sure if this is just so Elvis can stay home another night with his new baby while one of the others plays the 2nd night of the B2B.

That’s my guess. I’m hoping all is healthy with baby Jaxon and Elvis wife.

 

[VT]

Boone Jenner:

first 4 games back from injury: 0 g 7 a +7

last 6 games: 0 g 2 a -7

The first game played on adrenaline. It's understandable that he doesn't play well, especially if the rest of the team doesn't shine either, honor the exceptions.

 

[VT]

as talented and likable of a player as he is, he's often out of the lineup, and streaky when he's in it. the tools are louder than the production. and the FO is reportedly frustrated with the player.

this FO quickly dropped a bunch of guys (laine, boqvist, texier, jiricek, bean) who checked similar boxes (talent, uncertainty, tension) precisely because of the risk aversion you mentioned. not necessarily the same situation across the board, but there's some overlap.

if they keep chinakhov, they have a piece that:

1. is cheap for one more year, when they won't need the cap space
2. is capable of playing like a top six forward, but
3. is streaky when he's in the lineup
4. is often out of the lineup

there are plenty of teams that will want to bet on his upside as a supporting piece, especially given the cap hit. for the jackets, he's the means to an end. they can move him to fill a need without opening another.

assuming no provorov extension, they need a top four defenseman. imo they also need another top six forward. i'd argue that bundling chinakhov with a 1st + prospect to go big game hunting for one of those needs, then filling the second via UFA creates a stronger roster than keeping him and only filling one of those needs externally.

I wrote a long time ago that we should trade Chinakhov because of injuries. Unfortunately, what I feared happened.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

By all means go trade for a big defensive upgrade (I'm not persuaded that we should move trade assets for a top six forward),

they should absolutely be in the market for a top six forward, and there are ways to pursue one without parting with meaningful assets. whether that's a UFA like ehlers or a cap casualty trade.

another wrinkle to this as it pertains to chinakhov is that he only has one more cheap year left on his deal. if they bet on him and they're wrong, it's a wasted season. if they bet on him and they're right, they're going to have to pay up and still have the lingering injury uncertainty.

i'd argue there's a really strong case for instead pursuing a trade for a winger who:

• signed their current deal before the cap increase projections came out
• has multiple years of term left on that deal
• is more consistent + reliable (both in terms of performance + injuries)

even if that player doesn't have the supposed upside of chinakhov, that would still put the team itself in a stronger position imo. trevor moore sticks out as an option, with a $4m cap hit for three more years after this one.

there's an even bolder path where they look for a bona fide upgrade over chinakhov, whether that's via trade (kyrou, mccann, buchnevich), free agency (ehlers, duchene, maybe boeser) or offer sheet (viliardi, peterka, foerster). if it's not a trade, chinkahov could be dangled to recoup assets or wrangle a defensive upgrade.

I just don't think Chinakhov's trade value is high enough to be the best candidate for that sort of trade.

on his own? of course not. but the "draft pick + young roster player + prospect" template can fetch a pretty big fish. chinakhov is valuable enough to move the needle in a package like that over, say, what alex texier's value was last year.

 

[Doggy]

Quick read on Monahan, Guddy and Silly:

Blue Jackets Monahan, Gudbranson, Sillinger All Close to a Return - The Hockey Writers Columbus Blue Jackets Latest News, Analysis & More

The Columbus Blue Jackets are close to getting to full strength. Hear from Sean Monahan, Erik Gudbranson and Cole Sillinger.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[majormajor]

they should absolutely be in the market for a top six forward, and there are ways to pursue one without parting with meaningful assets. whether that's a UFA like ehlers or a cap casualty trade.

another wrinkle to this as it pertains to chinakhov is that he only has one more cheap year left on his deal. if they bet on him and they're wrong, it's a wasted season. if they bet on him and they're right, they're going to have to pay up and still have the lingering injury uncertainty.

i'd argue there's a really strong case for instead pursuing a trade for a winger who:

• signed their current deal before the cap increase projections came out
• has multiple years of term left on that deal
• is more consistent + reliable (both in terms of performance + injuries)

even if that player doesn't have the supposed upside of chinakhov, that would still put the team itself in a stronger position imo. trevor moore sticks out as an option, with a $4m cap hit for three more years after this one.

there's an even bolder path where they look for a bona fide upgrade over chinakhov, whether that's via trade (kyrou, mccann, buchnevich), free agency (ehlers, duchene, maybe boeser) or offer sheet (viliardi, peterka, foerster). if it's not a trade, chinkahov could be dangled to recoup assets or wrangle a defensive upgrade.


on his own? of course not. but the "draft pick + young roster player + prospect" template can fetch a pretty big fish. chinakhov is valuable enough to move the needle in a package like that over, say, what alex texier's value was last year.

If we're making a big trade for a defensive upgrade at D (I insist!) then I might be interested in a forward acquisition as well, depending on who is available and how much trade capital we have left over. It's certainly a much lower priority.

There's a risk that you're trading Chinakhov+ for someone who Chinakhov will outplay immediately.

Some of these guys you talk about like Brock Boeser are even more dependent on getting top minutes and PP time - it's been a topic in Vancouver that Boeser can't seem to score unless his center is really playing well. And of course he has his own health risks.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Ehlers is who I would target if we’re looking at a forward upgrade in UFA (assuming Marner isn’t possible)

 

[NotCommitted]

So no other team will take a risk on Chinakov because of his back issues while ignoring his upside as a player while we should do the opposite?

I mean if he was playing somewhere else, what would you be willing to give in a trade for a player who has at most played 53 games the past 3 seasons and on his best year to date is on pace for something like 20g+20a per 82, but whose actual statline will be more like 10+10=20 in 40gp? Probably not much? Would you rather get that return or take your chances on Chinakhov staying healthy and starting to tap into some of that potential?

We already have the player and know he's a good fit if he stays healthy, so the risk for CBJ in that sense is less than the risk for a team who'd actually have to give back something of value to get him.

 

[majormajor]

Ehlers is who I would target if we’re looking at a forward upgrade in UFA (assuming Marner isn’t possible)

Ehlers is ideal in a lot of ways beyond just being a top line caliber forward. He doesn't need much help. He's spent almost his whole on the 2nd line in Winnipeg and usually wasn't on the top powerplay, and he still produced at a great pace, even with weaker linemates.

I don't want to bring in a guy where we feel strongly obliged to "get him going" and give him attention and PP minutes at the expense of Fantilli, KJ, etc... Certainly if a newcomer is playing better, I don't mind, but the great appeal of Ehlers for me is that he can lift up others and doesn't need to be carried.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Ehlers is ideal in a lot of ways beyond just being a top line caliber forward. He doesn't need much help. He's spent almost his whole on the 2nd line in Winnipeg and usually wasn't on the top powerplay, and he still produced at a great pace, even with weaker linemates.

I don't want to bring in a guy where we feel strongly obliged to "get him going" and give him attention and PP minutes at the expense of Fantilli, KJ, etc... Certainly if a newcomer is playing better, I don't mind, but the great appeal of Ehlers for me is that he can lift up others and doesn't need to be carried.

There’s like no impact players on defense on the market so if you’re going to make an impact on the roster in free agency , then Marner or Ehlers are the best ways to utilize your money for actual impact.

Defensive upgrade (and goalie) would have to Come via trade.

 

[majormajor]

There’s like no impact players on defense on the market so if you’re going to make an impact on the roster in free agency , then Marner or Ehlers are the best ways to utilize your money for actual impact.

Defensive upgrade (and goalie) would have to Come via trade.

Maybe not "impact player" but if we happen to lure Gavrikov back that would be a very big defensive upgrade.

Most likely we'll have to make a big trade or two to fix the back end.

 

[MoeBartoli]

This team needs one more forward. While it may not be Ehlers, he’s a good example of what we could use. This team also needs reliable goaltending. Elvis is too inconsistent and Tarasov is too so not the answer.

But Waddell needs to overhaul the defense. Z is great and Mayetchuck will become a good defensemen. Beyond that everyone else is a question mark for me. Many here are much higher on Provorov. To me he and Severson take turns making poor decisions and poor plays while at other times look good. Too inconsistent - the defensive versions of Elvis. JMFJ is one of my all time favs but he’s washed and has been for several years. Christiansen is a 6,7,8 guy. I’m not totally sold on Fabbro as I wonder if his success is because of his pairing with Z (which makes him workable even if he’s not an ideal top pair guy).

Waddell needs to add a solid defensive D man who has some physicality. Don’t re-sign Provorov, trade Severson if humanly possible, and don’t even think Harris is a solution. This may sound like more of a defensive rebuild than some might like but I believe it’s needed.

Edit: As to Fabbro with Z, I questioned how much if his success is Z dependent. While a question mark, today’s The Athletic article shows them with the 6th best GF/GA differential and 10th in fewest GA average. Those are good numbers. (Full disclosure this includes minutes with Provorov paired with Zach). So I’m inclined to re-sign him if a reasonable AAV.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Another forward I think we could be in on is Brock Nelson.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

There's a risk that you're trading Chinakhov+ for someone who Chinakhov will outplay immediately.

unless they think chinakhov would outplay the new player in columbus it's a moot point, though.

they can find a player who is a better fit and provides more stability + consistent production in the lineup + has longer-term cost certainty. seems like a no-brainer position to try to upgrade this summer.

Some of these guys you talk about like Brock Boeser are even more dependent on getting top minutes and PP time - it's been a topic in Vancouver that Boeser can't seem to score unless his center is really playing well.

prior to his injury, chinakhov had 14 points in 21 games.

five of those points were on the power play. monahan was on the ice for 11 of chinakhov's first 12 points of the season. the one he wasn't was a 6v5 goal against florida in the dying seconds of the home opener.

he's been back for 8 games and has one point (a secondary assist last night) with a -8 rating since.

any issues brock boeser has w/r/t being dependent on a good center or power play time are significantly more severe with chinakhov.

pre-injury chinakhov (the best we've seen him play) produced at 0.67 p/gp clip, which is less than boeser's career average of 0.79 p/gp.

And of course he has his own health risks.

not disagreeing, but he's only missed 27 games over the last five years.

chinakhov's in his fourth year and has missed 141 games over that span. nearly half of the 315 games the jackets have played since he debuted.

boeser's not at the top of my list (if they're going the UFA route i prefer ehlers or duchene) but he's an attainable star-level player who is more available, productive, consistent and experienced than chinakhov. and chinakhov, in a trade package, could help them fetch a top four defenseman.

 

[CBJx614]

This team needs one more forward. While it may not be Ehlers, he’s a good example of what we could use. This team also needs reliable goaltending. Elvis is too inconsistent and Tarasov is too so not the answer.

But Waddell needs to overhaul the defense. Z is great and Mayetchuck will become a good defensemen. Beyond that everyone else is a question mark for me. Many here are much higher on Provorov. To me he and Severson take turns making poor decisions and poor plays while at other times look good. Too inconsistent - the defensive versions of Elvis. JMFJ is one of my all time favs but he’s washed and has been for several years. Christiansen is a 6,7,8 guy. I’m not totally sold on Fabbro as I wonder if his success is because of his pairing with Z (which makes him workable even if he’s not an ideal top pair guy).

Waddell needs to add a solid defensive D man who has some physicality. Don’t re-sign Provorov, trade Severson if humanly possible, and don’t even think Harris is a solution. This may sound like more of a defensive rebuild than some might like but I believe it’s needed.

I agree, we need to make a smart UFA signing or two ( injuries WILL happen) and we need to force some guys to 3rd/4th line roles or to just be injury fill ins. Until guys like KJ and Fantilli can be relied upon consistently, we're gonna need some help in the top 6. Boone isn't gonna get any better than what he is and hes a 2nd line guy in a pinch but a 3rd line guy on a contender (unless he finds perfect chemistry with someones in the top 6)


Let's make some big moves to reshape the structure of the D. I would absolutely love the idea grabbing Gavrikov and adding to the Russian core of the team. And then adding one or two guys in a trade. Keep Z and Mateychuk as core pieces.

As for goaltending I think we keep Elvis through his deal and keep an eye out around the league while hoping we get lucky and one of Ivanov or Gardner can pop off.

 

[majormajor]

Another forward I think we could be in on is Brock Nelson.

Should we ask him if he wants a 2 x $9.5m?

 

[majormajor]

unless they think chinakhov would outplay the new player in columbus it's a moot point, though.

they can find a player who is a better fit and provides more stability + consistent production in the lineup + has longer-term cost certainty. seems like a no-brainer position to try to upgrade this summer.

Yes outplay in Columbus. You act like it's impossible for Chinakhov to play well here.

It's never a "no-brainer" to move out a player with the talent of Chinakhov, because we don't know if we're upgrading or downgrading on what he will do here in Columbus.

any issues brock boeser has w/r/t being dependent on a good center or power play time are significantly more severe with chinakhov.

Boeser's dependence issue is pretty severe. Prior to the recent scoring outburst in the last two games, in the 17 games after JT Miller was traded Boeser put up 2G 3A and -15. That's largely with Elias Pettersson, and on the top PP. Now try putting him on the 2nd PP unit in Columbus and play him two minutes less per game with Jenner or Sillinger as his center. Recipe for disaster.

Chinakhov needs to get his timing back post-injury. He misses Monahan too, I'm sure, but his decision making is slow right now and that's the bigger factor. We've seen him light up last year - the Siberian trio was our best line - he'll be able to play with a lot of guys once he gets his timing back.

 

[ViD]

Good luck finding another player who’s top 10 in speed and shot power in the NHL at the same time.

Gotta keep Chnakhov at all costs (and the current cost is minimal)

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Good luck finding another player who’s top 10 in speed and shot power in the NHL at the same time.

the tracking data is fun but it's not really indicative of success. rasmus kupari is #2 in skating speed this year. jakub lauko is #4 in shot speed. fwiw, chinakhov doesn't appear on either list this season.

his shot power doesn't matter if he can't beat goalies, hit the net, or get shots off fast enough to not have them blocked. he shoots it hard but is not accurate, and his release is painfully slow.

his skating speed doesn't matter if he's not consistently impacting games with that speed, using it to produce scoring, or beating his man to dangerous areas.

and neither of those things matter if he's missing games. to date: 20 as a rookie, 52 the following year, 19 last year and 40 this year.

Gotta keep Chnakhov at all costs (and the current cost is minimal)

i like the player but he doesn't consistently impact the game the way a top six forward should when he's in the lineup and he misses a ton of games.

 

[majormajor]

his shot power doesn't matter if he can't beat goalies, hit the net, or get shots off fast enough to not have them blocked. he shoots it hard but is not accurate, and his release is painfully slow.

His shot can be crazy accurate. Even the most accurate shooters will have times where they are not dialed in. The slow release is the bigger problem right now, when he's low in confidence he's overloading his release, which is a common problem for shooters when they're not feeling it. He might want to get a less whippy stick.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Time to start looking at the college free agent route.