Line Combos: CBJ Roster Discussion/Line Combos/Injury Report

[ColumbusTrill]

 

[squashmaple]

That’s what makes Severson so frustrating. He is for the vast majority of the game quite good. It’s just he’s good for one egregious mistake per game that is so mind-boggling that you wonder if he had a medical episode, and it nearly always results in a goal against at a critical time.

 

[alphafox]

I feel like Severson is one guy where the "big mistake" erases a ton of his good play. He is a very good defenseman 90% of the time it, the problem is he makes mistakes at critical moments not when we are up 3 goals. His mistakes are the kind that cost you spots in the standings not just goals.

 

[majormajor]

I feel like Severson is one guy where the "big mistake" erases a ton of his good play.

At times it does but does it erase all of it to the point that he is a negative player? I keep seeing people post that without evidence.

And lately he's been fine. In the 9 games since he's returned to the lineup he's been on the ice for only two goals against, with the lowest goals against rate on the team. 6 GF 2 GA.

 

[Cheddarcheese]

i know its so hard to say but where do you think the jackets are this year if they had a a healthy lineup + JG ?

 

[S1N4TR4]

i know its so hard to say but where do you think the jackets are this year if they had a a healthy lineup + JG ?

assuming everyone is healthy (with johnny), i’d say we’d be atleast 3rd in the metro. around 62-63 points.

 

[CBJx614]

 

[Monk]

Am I understanding this stat correctly if I were to say I wish Kent Johnson was expected to score more goals?

EDIT: Ya know what, I take it back. I just looked up his stats, he has more goals than I thought

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Am I understanding this stat correctly if I were to say I wish Kent Johnson was expected to score more goals?

EDIT: Ya know what, I take it back. I just looked up his stats, he has more goals than I thought

the stat is finishing above expected, so it's saying that he has scored 7 more goals than what should be expected given the shots he has taken.

the less-fancy way to say this is that he has 14 goals on a 20% shooting percentage, and that the baseline would be half that (10% shooting = 7 goals).

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[Monk]

Good, we need someone to take up the mantle

 

[LJ7]

I haven't watched him lately enough to know if he has slowed down any, but he would be an excellent addition with our system. Fast and plays hard.

 

[NotWendell]

I want a defenseman that plays like Olivier plays forward. Maybe with a little more speed and a little more discipline, but a lot like him. Someone in the mold of Darius Kasparaitis (going back a ways).

 

[majormajor]

I haven't watched him lately enough to know if he has slowed down any, but he would be an excellent addition with our system. Fast and plays hard.

He's still pretty quick. He's getting massively outscored this year. Minimal finishing ability. Results might be better outside of Seattle, I'm not sure. The team is completely aimless.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I haven't watched him lately enough to know if he has slowed down any, but he would be an excellent addition with our system. Fast and plays hard.

i rarely do the "this guy is redundant with what we currently have" thing – in most cases, the player is an upgrade over someone with stylistic similarities. that said, they just extended ZAR and tanev strikes me as a (maybe) marginally better player who is significantly more expensive and would have an acquisition cost on top of that.

maybe they think he can play higher in the lineup as a supporting guy but i don't see it.

edit: also the "bottom six energy guy" rental market isn't really where the jackets should be playing, given that they have a lot of those guys and bigger holes in the middle of the lineup.

 

[MoeBartoli]

i rarely do the "this guy is redundant with what we currently have" thing – in most cases, the player is an upgrade over someone with stylistic similarities. that said, they just extended ZAR and tanev strikes me as a (maybe) marginally better player who is significantly more expensive and would have an acquisition cost on top of that.

maybe they think he can play higher in the lineup as a supporting guy but i don't see it.

edit: also the "bottom six energy guy" rental market isn't really where the jackets should be playing, given that they have a lot of those guys and bigger holes in the middle of the lineup.

Agree. This isn’t an add that’s needed whatsoever.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Monahan is out but Sillinger should be back soon. When he returns, here’s hoping Evason keeps him away from KJ and JVR. Those two with DBB have posted 8 GF and 4 GA in their 50 minutes 5 on 5 TOI. With Cole they are 1 and 3 in their 60 minutes TOI.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Would like to see Silly with ZAR and Danny.

 

[Indy18]

Agree. This isn’t an add that’s needed whatsoever.

Yeah I wouldn't be opposed but I think we have a more pressing need is a mid 6 experienced winger who is cheap but can help with secondary scoring with our younger players who can still keep up with them *cough cough Nyquist*

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Maybe things will work themselves out after a couple of days off and not playing until Thursday but DW said tonight at STH Appreciation night that a few players wouldn't be there during the autograph session due to illness. I didn't keep track of everybody but as I was walking out I was trying to think of who was not there tonight. Provorov was the only one I thought of off the top of my head originally. I also think Fabbro was not present. Monahan was also not there but that could also be due to his injury. I don't recall if his wrist injury is his writing hand or not. I think everyone else on the roster was accounted for.

 

[Indy18]

Maybe things will work themselves out after a couple of days off and not playing until Thursday but DW said tonight at STH Appreciation night that a few players wouldn't be there during the autograph session due to illness. I didn't keep track of everybody but as I was walking out I was trying to think of who was not there tonight. Provorov was the only one I thought of off the top of my head originally. I also think Fabbro was not present. Monahan was also not there but that could also be due to his injury. I don't recall if his wrist injury is his writing hand or not. I think everyone else on the roster was accounted for.

Monahan, Fabbro, Provorov were the ones I noted so I think you are right.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Captain Boone Jenner, who has been out all season after suffering a shoulder injury at the end of training camp, got a clean bill of health from doctors, allowing him to join the Blue Jackets last Saturday for a morning skate before they played the Los Angeles Kings.

Coach Dean Evason could tell Jenner was fired up, he said, because Jenner was chirping at goaltending coach Niklas Backstrom.

“Christmas morning,” is how Jenner described being back on the ice with teammates. “It’s definitely a big step in the process. It feels like it’s been a long, long time, and it has.”

Jenner will join the club for a full-blown practice on Tuesday and Wednesday in Nationwide Arena, but will likely be held out of full-contact drills as he works his way back into the lineup, general manager Don Waddell told The Athletic.

“To have his presence and his leadership … and I mean that on the ice,” Evason said. “He’s been in there (the dressing room) the whole time. He’s talking to guys, he’s in our meetings, he’s led in the way he’s had to, and has remained a huge part of our hockey team.”
Jenner hopes to return on the other side of the mid-season break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, which should put his season debut on Feb. 22 vs. the Chicago Blackhawks. That means he’ll miss the next six games, beginning with Thursday’s game in Las Vegas.

In training camp, it appeared Evason had Jenner pegged to play on the wing after having spent the last several seasons at center. But with Monahan out, and with the Blue Jackets well-stocked with top-six wingers, it’s expected Jenner will likely play center when he returns to the lineup, or soon after.

Since Monahan’s absence, the Blue Jackets — already not a great faceoff team — have seen their success on draws plummet across the board. They are last in the league at even strength (43.1 percent) and on the power play (34.5 percent), and 25th (41.2 percent) on the penalty kill.

Since he joined the league in 2013-14, Jenner is 14th among active players with a 54.1 percent success rate. Not to mention he’s scored 71 goals the last three seasons.

How badly does Jenner want to return?

On Saturday, after his morning skate, Jenner made it clear he would have rather broken his jaw again than gone through this recovery from shoulder surgery. Remember, Jenner’s jaw was wired shut, he drank food through a straw, etc.

“Last year, with the jaw, that was a different kind of hard,” Jenner said. “I’d take six weeks over the few months, for sure.

“It happens. For it to happen before our first game is hard, but what can you do? There’s a lot of motivation to come back, so I’m sticking with it.”

It appears Jenner will make it back to play a few games before the Blue Jackets host the Detroit Red Wings on March 1 in an NHL Stadium Series matchup in Ohio Stadium. That’s been his goal since the day he lost an edge and slammed into a corner of the rink in the Blue Jackets’ practice facility.

Two developments have made it easier — not easy, but easier — for him to watch from the sidelines.

First, the emergence of the Blue Jackets’ cluster of young players, who have all started to bloom in their careers: Fantilli, Marchenko, Voronkov, Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, Denton Mateychuk and others.

Second, the ascension of defenseman Zach Werenski, not just toward being one of the NHL’s top defensemen but to being one of the Blue Jackets’ leaders.

“The young guys have all taken that step this year,” Jenner said. “That’s huge for us. It takes a couple of years to find yourself in this league, and you’ve seen guys really find themselves and become the players they’ve envisioned.

“(Werenski) has been the backbone for us. He’s gone through a lot (with injuries, too), and to see him playing like this … he’s an elite defenseman and we’re lucky to have him.”

 

[KJ Dangler]

the stat is finishing above expected, so it's saying that he has scored 7 more goals than what should be expected given the shots he has taken.

the less-fancy way to say this is that he has 14 goals on a 20% shooting percentage, and that the baseline would be half that (10% shooting = 7 goals).

If the baseline understood his release of the puck, changing angles as he shoots , and his ability to pass the puck for a blind setup.. I would agree you can read into the stats …

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[cbjthrowaway]

If the baseline understood his release of the puck, changing angles as he shoots , and his ability to pass the puck for a blind setup.. I would agree you can read into the stats …

1. finishing is different than goals for, so it's purely a shooting stat
2. the baseline i mentioned is the shooting percentage for all shots on goal in the NHL, not for kent individually, but that doesn't account for shot quality
3. finishing stats are intended to quantify shooting results while normalizing for shot quality
   • ex: a guy who takes shots from in tight isn't automatically a better shooter/finisher than a sniper who does damage from farther away, even if the sh% says so
4. finishing above/below expected can show puck luck (short/single-year samples) but over a multi-year sample it can show a player's shooting talent
   • short-term example: william karlsson scoring 43 goals on 23% shooting in year 1 in vegas, but being a 12% shooter across the rest of his career
   • long-term example: patrik laine taking shots from low-danger areas (low xG numbers) but having an elite shot (higher actual goal numbers)

in other words, there's not much to glean from this yet. kent johnson's finishing numbers seem to be primed for regression, but that doesn't mean that he can't consistently outperform his xG numbers if he has above average shooting talent.

for example, elias pettersson (a player with some stylistic similarities to kj) is an elite finisher who has a career shooting percentage of 16.3%, which is way over the baseline of roughly 10%. kent doesn't have the power on his shot that EP40 does, but his release, mechanics and ability to change angles seems to be far above average.