Line Combos: CBJ Roster Discussion/Line Combos/Injury Report

[Palmu]

anything we like from Pittsburgh?

Drew O'Connor is decent 3rd line forward. Good forechecker and penalty killer.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Bunting? Nedjelkovic? Beauvillier?

Likely O'Connor is the only player of real interest. The players the CBJ would want are the players Pens should be keeping.

 

[Viqsi]

Jones was Nashville’s 3RD (Nashville was very deep defensively) playing 19 minutes a night. Johansen was a 1C coming off a 71 point season where he averaged 19 minutes. (He never hit 71 points again.) I don’t know how distressed he was. There was a potential issue and rumors around town [MOD] but the guy was still a big young 1C.

Now Jones almost instantly became a 1RD in Columbus and averaged 24 minutes per night after the trade, but that is not who was in Nashville.

Jones was also 20 years old when he was doing that - same age as Nemec and Jiricek, neither of whom have been anywhere near that capable yet - while Joey was 23. Give us a break, hon.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Jones was also 20 years old when he was doing that - same age as Nemec and Jiricek, neither of whom have been anywhere near that capable yet - while Joey was 23. Give us a break, hon.

yeah jones was looking like a slam-dunk #1 on a team that already had weber in his prime + others. their top four defensemen were josi, weber, ellis and ekholm, all of whom are 4+ years older than jones.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Drew O'Connor is decent 3rd line forward. Good forechecker and penalty killer.

he's fine but he's also not what the jackets need right now, which is a solid second line forward.

realistically, the guys who fit the best in this moment are rust and rakell, but both have a lot of term left. if it's a tear-down, i could see them having a lower cost than expected solely because pittsburgh needs some cap flexibility. i think bunting is a clear step below those two.

can't see malkin waiving his NMC but given how well monahan's defensive metrics look + jenner's return not too far away, i could see a fit here as a pure offensive 2C for the next couple years.

didn't waddell push really hard to get karlsson in carolina? i think he brings elements that the coaches (high activation) and the FO (highly-respected veteran) love, but it's hard to see a fit beyond the immediate short term. still, this team is at its best when werenski is jumping into the rush, and karlsson could bring that element in the non-werenski minutes.

can't really see the latter two guys mentioned being viable options but could see the FO at least asking. rust is the guy who appeals the most to me.

 

[alphafox]

Rumors of us being in on Boeser are interesting. Assuming he signs something just between the 7-8 range on the ufa extension basing it off the fact that Lucas Raymond is making 8. He and Fantilli could be a nightmare as a second line and could drive a huge improvement in our secondary scoring and at its best would be in the two "1st" lines when you add back a Jenner or a prospect like Brindley or Maybe KJ can play off side. I think the question is fundamentally on future cap hit (anything beyond 8 is probably an issue) and cost to acquire (Severson with retention? Proverov?)

 

[majormajor]

he's fine but he's also not what the jackets need right now, which is a solid second line forward.

realistically, the guys who fit the best in this moment are rust and rakell, but both have a lot of term left. if it's a tear-down, i could see them having a lower cost than expected solely because pittsburgh needs some cap flexibility. i think bunting is a clear step below those two.

can't see malkin waiving his NMC but given how well monahan's defensive metrics look + jenner's return not too far away, i could see a fit here as a pure offensive 2C for the next couple years.

didn't waddell push really hard to get karlsson in carolina? i think he brings elements that the coaches (high activation) and the FO (highly-respected veteran) love, but it's hard to see a fit beyond the immediate short term. still, this team is at its best when werenski is jumping into the rush, and karlsson could bring that element in the non-werenski minutes.

can't really see the latter two guys mentioned being viable options but could see the FO at least asking. rust is the guy who appeals the most to me.

Forget long term, Erik Karlsson would be a bad fit right now. I can see a team desperate for an offensive catalyst being able to look past having the worst defensive liability in the league, but for a team that already has Werenski it's just a problem. Karlsson has only ever been worth it in the times when he has been the lone catalyst. Having him in the "non-Burns" and "non-Letang" minutes hasn't been good.

Supposedly Rust is on their short not for sale list. No one on their trade list really fits us.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Rumors of us being in on Boeser are interesting. Assuming he signs something just between the 7-8 range on the ufa extension basing it off the fact that Lucas Raymond is making 8. He and Fantilli could be a nightmare as a second line and could drive a huge improvement in our secondary scoring and at its best would be in the two "1st" lines when you add back a Jenner or a prospect like Brindley. I think the question is fundamentally on future cap hit (anything beyond 8 is probably an issue) and cost to acquire (Severson with retention? Proverov?)

boeser is a really good player and would (imo) be a very good fit as we need secondary scoring and he is a legitimate top six winger who plays well without the puck and gets to dangerous areas.

i also think that his injury history probably scares some teams off and deflates the AAV and term on his next deal. could see something like $7m/year for five or six years rather than the 8x8 i think people assume he'd be asking for.

 

[majormajor]

He and Fantilli could be a nightmare as a second line and could drive a huge improvement in our secondary scoring and at its best would be in the two "1st" lines when you add back a Jenner or a prospect like Brindley.

Are you forgetting Kent Johnson and Yegor Chinakhov? Or the significant possibility that one or more of LDBB, Brindley, and Lindstrom will also be able to command second line minutes?

Boeser seems like a solution to a problem we don't have.

 

[alphafox]

boeser is a really good player and would (imo) be a very good fit as we need secondary scoring and he is a legitimate top six winger who plays well without the puck and gets to dangerous areas.

i also think that his injury history probably scares some teams off and deflates the AAV and term on his next deal. could see something like $7m/year for five or six years rather than the 8x8 i think people assume he'd be asking for.

I think he also is more than willing to head out of Van at this point which could improve the contract and asking price. If we could do it for Severson+Picks it would be a perfect fit.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Forget long term, Erik Karlsson would be a bad fit right now. I can see a team desperate for an offensive catalyst being able to look past having the worst defensive liability in the league, but for a team that already has Werenski it's just a problem. Karlsson has only ever been worth it in the times when he has been the lone catalyst. Having him in the "non-Burns" and "non-Letang" minutes hasn't been good.

his analytical profile shows a player whose offense is still largely worth it, and their team defense has not been good overall (not just a karlsson problem). dom's model (which i don't love) has him in the 99th percentile for offense and the 10th for defense, but still a net +7 (worth ~7m).

he's still playing about 23 minutes a night and doing that on a bad team – we've seen how that type of usage/environment can lead to models misrepresenting a player's overall defensive ability. saw it for years with werenski, and dom's model had gavrikov as one of the worst defensive players in the league (it now says he's one of the best).

i'm not saying that i think they should make a pitch for him or that there's a great fit (PP1 spot is taken), but he is a player that waddell has targeted in the past, and his offensive play-driving abilities (and the opportunity here to shelter him a bit more) could make the team more effective in the non-werenski minutes.

as you said, that hasn't necessarily worked before… but those scenarios happened on two brutally bad teams.

Supposedly Rust is on their short not for sale list. No one on their trade list really fits us.

"we're having a fire sale where everyone is available except for the only guys anyone would want" isn't exactly a great pitch from dubas but as a message board poster, who am i to judge

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Are you forgetting Kent Johnson and Yegor Chinakhov? Or the significant possibility that one or more of LDBB, Brindley, and Lindstrom will also be able to command second line minutes?

johnson is the opposite type of scoring line winger (transition perimeter guy) to boeser (off-puck supporting player), chinakhov is hurt way more than boeser is, brindley has played one NHL game, and lindstrom's at least two more years away.

if anything, boeser is the type of player who would be perfect to pair with johnson and/or fantilli.

Boeser seems like a solution to a problem we don't have.

the problem is that they have been a one-line team, and he absolutely would solve that problem.

this team has a very real chance to make the playoffs this year, and boeser would help that. he's also a good veteran (and we've seen the kind of impact that has) and will almost unquestionably produce at a first-line clip for the next few years.

beyond that? "more good forwards than roster spots" is not something that has historically 1) caused actual problems or 2) been unfixable for teams that have been in that scenario before. tampa sticks out as an example – they've lost good forwards but been able to recoup assets or backfill pretty easily.

 

[majormajor]

his analytical profile shows a player whose offense is still largely worth it, and their team defense has not been good overall (not just a karlsson problem). dom's model (which i don't love) has him in the 99th percentile for offense and the 10th for defense, but still a net +7 (worth ~7m).

he's still playing about 23 minutes a night and doing that on a bad team – we've seen how that type of usage/environment can lead to models misrepresenting a player's overall defensive ability. saw it for years with werenski, and dom's model had gavrikov as one of the worst defensive players in the league (it now says he's one of the best).

i'm not saying that i think they should make a pitch for him or that there's a great fit (PP1 spot is taken), but he is a player that waddell has targeted in the past, and his offensive play-driving abilities (and the opportunity here to shelter him a bit more) could make the team more effective in the non-werenski minutes.

as you said, that hasn't necessarily worked before… but those scenarios happened on two brutally bad teams.

FWIW you can also find models where EK's defense costs most of what he gains in offense, making him worth much less than $7m (see the hockeystatcards site).

I understand that models suck at evaluating how good players are at defending, but you don't really need analytics with EK. Just watch him, it's cringeworthy. The guy is way too close to being a literal pylon. A 2v2 is like a 2v1 with him out there.

"we're having a fire sale where everyone is available except for the only guys anyone would want" isn't exactly a great pitch from dubas but as a message board poster, who am i to judge

There are some valuable pieces - if you are mid-window and need middle six offense, with less concerned for the future - then Bunting and Rakell are good guys to get. Even Karlsson would have appeal to a team that needs a new #1D. Unfortunately none of that applies to us.

 

[majormajor]

Let's not ignore that Boeser's production is coming with him playing with an established #1C and getting prime #1 PP minutes. I imagine the price tag will reflect the demand from teams who need him just as badly, for their top line and #1 unit. We would be paying a lot in assets and long term $$ for a guy for our 2nd line and 2nd PP.

the problem is that they have been a one-line team, and he absolutely would solve that problem.

Our lack of secondary scoring is so bad right now, that half the forwards in the league would "absolutely solve that problem". You don't need to pay for Boeser to address that. Gus Nyquist would substantially put a dent in that issue. If you really value the short term issue (I do), then you would be strongly in favor of getting a couple guys like that.

and will almost unquestionably produce at a first-line clip for the next few years.

Yeah no. That's not a thing you say about a guy who has crested above 56 points once in his career and that you are taking off the top line away from an established #1C and top PP time.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I understand that models suck at evaluating how good players are at defending, but you don't really need analytics with EK. Just watch him, it's cringeworthy. The guy is way too close to being a literal pylon. A 2v2 is like a 2v1 with him out there.

i was at the last home game against pittsburgh and yeah, he looked cooked in the d-zone.

but i've also seen guys look cooked who suddenly don't look cooked once they go from a bad team to a good one (OEL sticks out as an example).

again, not saying the jackets should do it, just that if they did, i could see what the rationale would be based on evaluations that i'm simply not qualified to make.

There are some valuable pieces - if you are mid-window and need middle six offense, with less concerned for the future - then Bunting and Rakell are good guys to get.

i, for one, would strongly prefer brock boeser to either of those guys if the box we're looking to check is "top six scoring winger with strong off-puck play" (which imo we should)

Even Karlsson would have appeal to a team that needs a new #1D. Unfortunately none of that applies to us.

i don't think karlsson's appeal is as a potential #1 defenseman, more like a #3 who gets power play and 3v3 time and brings offense by jumping into the rush. and i do think the jackets could use that type of element on a second pair simply because the goals dry up when werenski's not out there. mateychuk is absolutely that guy long-term, but he's not that guy yet.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Our lack of secondary scoring is so bad right now, that half the forwards in the league would "absolutely solve that problem". You don't need to pay for Boeser to address that. Gus Nyquist would substantially put a dent in that issue. If you really value the short term issue (I do), then you would be strongly in favor of getting a couple guys like that.

i love gus nyquist but boeser is a significantly better player right now and is significantly more viable long-term given his age and production.

i also think that as a UFA, boeser is more of a 6-7m+ guy rather than an 8x8 guy.

Yeah no. That's not a thing you say about a guy who has crested above 56 points once in his career and that you are taking off the top line away from an established #1C and top PP time.

i'd argue that you're maybe misrepresenting his production a bit. he had a ton of injuries early in his career. his first full season was the covid bubble year (played all 56 of vancouver's games) and his scoring pace in that season would come out to a 72-point pace over 82 games. that's right on what he did last year (73p in 81gp) and there were some well-documented off-ice things that impacted his play between those seasons.

for the most part, he's been a lock to produce at a 60-70+ point rate for his entire career. that's not superstar production, but it is undoubtedly top line production.

as for his role, he would at minimum be a guy who they can plug-and-play on PP1 if any of the five "PP1 on paper" guys get hurt since he can play bumper, flank or netfront. but the power play works better in theory with a righty shot threat in the bumper (where he excels) if they run it through KJ on the right flank, and monahan can play down low. so while i wouldn't mess with the current chemistry, i wouldn't rule out him being a PP1 guy here either.

 

[majormajor]

i'd argue that you're maybe misrepresenting his production a bit. he had a ton of injuries early in his career. his first full season was the covid bubble year (played all 56 of vancouver's games) and his scoring pace in that season would come out to a 72-point pace over 82 games. that's right on what he did last year (73p in 81gp) and there were some well-documented off-ice things that impacted his play between those seasons.

To be clear, I'm not saying "He's just a 56 pt guy". I know he is more skilled than that. But you're establishing a much higher bar here when you say he will "unquestionably produce at a first line clip". His track record shows that it is indeed questionable, and you're adding more questions to it by taking him off the top unit and top PP.