Line Combos: CBJ Roster Discussion/Line Combos/Injury Report

[Xoggz22]

Our D needs serious help but I don't have the sense that the current group is less than the sum of its parts. It's just not a lot of good parts.

Severson is Severson. Provorov is Provorov. Gubranson is Gudbranson. These guys are who they are and who they have been. Werenski and Fabbro are having the best years of their careers (so far, hopefully). Who are we saying is underperforming because of one assistant coach? They also have Ford and Haviland here who both know about coaching defense, if Evason and those guys keep McCarthy around I would assume they think he's not bad at what he does.

I don't know the coaching structure, but I'm pretty sure McCarthy is responsible for implementation of a defensive structure. That would include how all 6 work on this ice, not just the two actual defensemen. While I'm in 100% agreement with you (already said this in a prior post) that this defense needs an overhaul from a talent perspective. They also need a coaching change is my opinion. McCarthy is the only link between the last three seasons. The players have changed so maybe that's unfair, but I just don't see something that tells me he's the guy to run the system and the defensemen in general. Maybe Haviland and Ford have actually been responsible for the actual improvements. Who knows. I'm just going with the look at the common denominator and that's McCarthy.

 

[majormajor]

I don't know the coaching structure, but I'm pretty sure McCarthy is responsible for implementation of a defensive structure. That would include how all 6 work on this ice, not just the two actual defensemen. While I'm in 100% agreement with you (already said this in a prior post) that this defense needs an overhaul from a talent perspective. They also need a coaching change is my opinion. McCarthy is the only link between the last three seasons. The players have changed so maybe that's unfair, but I just don't see something that tells me he's the guy to run the system and the defensemen in general. Maybe Haviland and Ford have actually been responsible for the actual improvements. Who knows. I'm just going with the look at the common denominator and that's McCarthy.

The common denominator is not enough good defensemen.

 

[ViD]

Severson has been our worst signing in latest years, sadly.

Worse than Gudbranson by far; and that’s shocking

 

[majormajor]

Severson has been our worst signing in latest years, sadly.

Worse than Gudbranson by far; and that’s shocking

Only by virtue of the contract.

As a player Gudbranson is worse. I love him as a person and leader for this team and I'm biased towards wanting to keep him as a #7/8. But Gudbranson can't make an on the tape pass the majority of the time. He does better in shovel it up the wall type systems. Many failed breakouts per game directly attributable to him. Severson does the right thing most of the time and just drifts off mentally a couple times per game and takes a lazy penalty or gives the puck away.

I have a strong distaste for the lackadaisical type of play that Severson brings to the defense. But when I think about next year and where we are going to find better defensemen I suddenly become appreciative. He's certainly getting better results this year than we can expect from an average third pair D. We're still above even in goals results with him - 57 to 55. A more average third pair result would be underwater, perhaps 40 GF and 50 GA. I just checked D-men 128-186 in 5v5 TOI per game, and they are usually underwater on goals results. Lower event, on average giving up fewer goals than Severson does, but their teams score much much less.

 

[MoeBartoli]

that rush on the PK where he didn't have a stick, went to the bench, then tried to get into the offensive zone while the puck was already going the other way was infuriating.

that said, kunin has been a bit unfairly maligned on this board imo.

they didn't get him because they needed a top six goal scorer, they got him because they needed a warm body to play forward and kill penalties. they barely gave anything up, and that's in a seller's market.

he's been an adequate fourth line guy. evason loves to roll all four lines, but the construction of those lines has been very old school (two scoring lines, two checking lines) and kunin fits into that dichotomy. and he's not even the worst checking line player they have in the lineup right now (imo he's been far better than ZAR).

i'm not saying he's a good player (he's not), but he's not worth the amount of energy people are spending to complain about him.

The part I agree with is when you referred to him as a “warm body”. And I’d agree with you about wasting too much energy discussing him (and ZAR) if the options were Pyythia, Labate, Fisher, and maybe even Lebanc. But he’s playing over Chinakov, who has struggled since returning but has far major upside, and JVR who is quite frankly having a very good year 5 on 5 hockey, scoring/60 minutes at a very good rate.

Thus, the potential upside for this lineup is much better with those two in the lineup over just “warm bodies”.

 

[ViD]

Only by virtue of the contract.

As a player Gudbranson is worse. I love him as a person and leader for this team and I'm biased towards wanting to keep him as a #7/8. But Gudbranson can't make an on the tape pass the majority of the time. He does better in shovel it up the wall type systems. Many failed breakouts per game directly attributable to him. Severson does the right thing most of the time and just drifts off mentally a couple times per game and takes a lazy penalty or gives the puck away.

I have a strong distaste for the lackadaisical type of play that Severson brings to the defense. But when I think about next year and where we are going to find better defensemen I suddenly become appreciative. He's certainly getting better results this year than we can expect from an average third pair D. We're still above even in goals results with him - 57 to 55. A more average third pair result would be underwater, perhaps 40 GF and 50 GA. I just checked D-men 128-186 in 5v5 TOI per game, and they are usually underwater on goals results. Lower event, on average giving up fewer goals than Severson does, but their teams score much much less.

The problem with that is we always knew Gud was going to be a 3rd pair player and he’s playing in that role somewhat successfully. Severson was definitely a top 4 addition, but he hasn’t lived up to that role at all. He’s also a third pair guy that was just scratched to play JMFJ. That’s absolutely bonkers considering his contract

 

[majormajor]

The problem with that is we always knew Gud was going to be a 3rd pair player and he’s playing in that role somewhat successfully. Severson was definitely a top 4 addition, but he hasn’t lived up to that role at all. He’s also a third pair guy that was just scratched to play JMFJ. That’s absolutely bonkers considering his contract

All contracts are sunk costs.

We need only evaluate the play.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Given the repeated healthy scratches this year for Severson (on that deal no less), and in general throwing a harness on his play, I would not be surprised at all if the Jackets moved him this summer.

Not saying it’ll be easy or we’ll get much, but with the cap going up and with the need of RHD league wide, I would not expect Severson to be on the team next year.

 

[majormajor]

Given the repeated healthy scratches this year for Severson (on that deal no less), and in general throwing a harness on his play, I would not be surprised at all if the Jackets moved him this summer.

Not saying it’ll be easy or we’ll get much, but with the cap going up and with the need of RHD league wide, I would not expect Severson to be on the team next year.

Since Evason doesn't like him, yes it's likely he's traded. With this summer's UFA prices, some teams will like the looks of his deal.

Our only RD under contract will be Gudbranson, who is much worse than Severson! I don't know if we can fix this. Half the league is flush with cap space and assets and wants to upgrade their D. We can move Severson but maybe not get better RD than Severson.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Since Evason doesn't like him, yes it's likely he's traded. With this summer's UFA prices, some teams will like the looks of his deal.

Our only RD under contract will be Gudbranson, who is much worse than Severson! I don't know if we can fix this. Half the league is flush with cap space and assets and wants to upgrade their D. We can move Severson but maybe not get better RD than Severson.

Maybe moving Severson will make Waddell keep Fabbro.

 

[majormajor]

Maybe moving Severson will make Waddell keep Fabbro.

I can't believe Wads would be so stupid to choose not to keep Fabbro - and to not pay up if that's what he has to do to keep our 2nd best defenseman from this year. I've been thinking it's probably Fabbro charting a new course?

So in that case we would be missing both and have zero starting caliber RD.

 

[koteka]

Our only RD under contract will be Gudbranson, who is much worse than Severson! I don't know if we can fix this. Half the league is flush with cap space and assets and wants to upgrade their D. We can move Severson but maybe not get better RD than Severson.

I bolded the important part.

This was the D last night for the Monsters.



4 left D with NHL potential, a career AHL right D, and a right D on loan from the Bruins. Ceulemans is a Monster right D but he is out. Not that he has shown NHL potential.

Last year we drafted Elick, Marrelli, and Henricks. Marrelli had a big step forward this season. But at best he is 2 years away from an up and down season like Mateychuk.

I have said it before and I’ll say it again — I think the only way to fix it involves trading someone we don’t want to trade.

I can't believe Wads would be so stupid to choose not to keep Fabbro - and to not pay up if that's what he has to do to keep our 2nd best defenseman from this year. I've been thinking it's probably Fabbro charting a new course?

I think if Fabbro had any interest in staying he would already have signed. I don’t think Wads is the issue. There is no mention of the Fabbro contract because nobody wants to rock the boat on a team in the hunt for the playoffs - not Fabbro, not the team, and not the local media.

 

[Jovavic]

I'm thinking we're going to see a reverse Methot/Foligno swap where we get a like D for a forward. Question is, which forward? Sillinger? Chinakov? Depending on his negotiations, maybe Voronkov?

 

[CBJx614]

Only by virtue of the contract.

As a player Gudbranson is worse. I love him as a person and leader for this team and I'm biased towards wanting to keep him as a #7/8. But Gudbranson can't make an on the tape pass the majority of the time. He does better in shovel it up the wall type systems. Many failed breakouts per game directly attributable to him. Severson does the right thing most of the time and just drifts off mentally a couple times per game and takes a lazy penalty or gives the puck away.

I have a strong distaste for the lackadaisical type of play that Severson brings to the defense. But when I think about next year and where we are going to find better defensemen I suddenly become appreciative. He's certainly getting better results this year than we can expect from an average third pair D. We're still above even in goals results with him - 57 to 55. A more average third pair result would be underwater, perhaps 40 GF and 50 GA. I just checked D-men 128-186 in 5v5 TOI per game, and they are usually underwater on goals results. Lower event, on average giving up fewer goals than Severson does, but their teams score much much less.

I think if we can keep him limited to a third pairing role and find him a sound, smart, responsible defensive minded partner that allows him to play aggressive and activate we could get some value out of him. I had hope that maybe some magic might happen between him and Guddy but that doesn't seem likely and not something id want to bank on going into next season.

Either way if we can add some guys to the lineup and eliminate playing Johnson and Harris as our 7/8 and replace them with Guddy/Severson and maybe find someone to push them for that role from within (someone in Cleveland if we're really lucky)

Lotta wishful thinking but who knows.

 

[Nanabijou]

There's lots of valid reasons for the Jackets' swoon over the last month. Team was over-performing expectations, team (especially Werenski) got worn down, other teams elevated their play and CBJ couldn't match, etc.

But, I think one of the frustrating aspects was that the team sunk once they got reinforcements. Guys like LDBB, JVR, Labate, Pyythia etc were supposed to be just holding the fort until Boone, Guddy, Monahan, Sillinger, etc came back from injury. Instead the team underperformed when it was completely healthy.

 

[majormajor]

So what do we with goalies for next year?

Jake Allen and Jet Greaves?

I'd like to get a bigger upgrade than Jake Allen but I don't know how we pull it off. I am confident in Jet Greaves as a backup and possibly as a 1A/1B goalie.

 

[stevo61]

So what do we with goalies for next year?

Jake Allen and Jet Greaves?

I'd like to get a bigger upgrade than Jake Allen but I don't know how we pull it off. I am confident in Jet Greaves as a backup and possibly as a 1A/1B goalie.

Allen isn't getting any younger but seems like a solid candidate for a true goalie tandem. Wonder if Evason would use goalies that way.

 

[punk_o_holic]

So what do we with goalies for next year?

Jake Allen and Jet Greaves?

I'd like to get a bigger upgrade than Jake Allen but I don't know how we pull it off. I am confident in Jet Greaves as a backup and possibly as a 1A/1B goalie.

Were the top goalie options from the UFA group Allen, Samsonov, Anderson, and Vlader? Anderson injury prone right? But was it Waddell who brought him to Carolina? None excites me but out of the group, Allen seems best option. Any trade candidates? Gibson? Does he have a NTC? Probably would decline if he does. Would probably only waive for a true contender. Besides is he injury prone as well? Saros??

 

[Nanabijou]

Evason clearly has no faith in Tarasov. It wouldn't surprise me that Elvis plays every game that's left, with maybe Jet spotting in for 1 or 2.

 

[CannonFire1]

So what do we with goalies for next year?

Jake Allen and Jet Greaves?

I'd like to get a bigger upgrade than Jake Allen but I don't know how we pull it off. I am confident in Jet Greaves as a backup and possibly as a 1A/1B goalie.

I would be okay with Allen and Greaves, or Anderson and Greaves.

 

[Cowumbus]

How I see it:

Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko
Johnson - Fantilli - XX (PFD)
Jenner - *Sillinger* - XX (CHK)
Aston-Reese - XX (ELC?) - Olivier
Pyyhtia

Werenski - Fabbro (re-sign)
Mateychuk - XX (TWD/DD)
XX (IDK?) - Severson/Gudbranson

XX
Elvis/Greaves

Bolded - we are stuck with

XX - need to be filled out via free agency, or trade (MIN 1st, Chinakhov)

*if Sillinger could be moved for an upgrade I would consider it, if they feel Del Bel Belluz can fill the spot

Across from Mateychuk I would take a long hard look at Nick Perbix.

 

[ViD]

How I see it:

Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko
Johnson - Fantilli - XX (PFD)
Jenner - *Sillinger* - XX (CHK)
Aston-Reese - XX (ELC?) - Olivier
Pyyhtia

Werenski - Fabbro (re-sign)
Mateychuk - XX
XX - Severson/Gudbranson

XX
Elvis/Greaves

Bolded - we are stuck with

XX - need to be filled out via free agency, or trade (MIN 1st, Chinakhov)

*if Sillinger could be moved for an upgrade I would consider it, if they feel Del Bel Belluz can fill the spot

Imagine had we drafted Demidov…

 

[majormajor]

How I see it:

Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko
Johnson - Fantilli - XX (PFD)
Jenner - *Sillinger* - XX (CHK)
Aston-Reese - XX (ELC?) - Olivier
Pyyhtia

Werenski - Fabbro (re-sign)
Mateychuk - XX (TWD/DD)
XX (IDK?) - Severson/Gudbranson

XX
Elvis/Greaves

Bolded - we are stuck with

XX - need to be filled out via free agency, or trade (MIN 1st, Chinakhov)

*if Sillinger could be moved for an upgrade I would consider it, if they feel Del Bel Belluz can fill the spot

Across from Mateychuk I would take a long hard look at Nick Perbix.

I don't think we are actually stuck with any of them, there is so much cap out there I think we could even move Severson, though perhaps it would involve taking something bad back. Elvis and Guddy too, though it would probably take retention for them. The bigger issue might be NTCs.

And the real bigger bigger issue is that we will have a hard time getting a better RD than Severson, it seems like every team is planning on mobilizing assets and using their newfound cap space to upgrade at RD. You might get rid of him but you might not get someone better. Fabbro hasn't been signed yet and there has been zero talk of it, which tells me he might be charting his own course to a new destination of his choosing, perhaps Vancouver.

Imagine had we drafted Demidov…

I try not to.

 

[majormajor]

I'm going to assume that Fabbro is set on going elsewhere and that we get outbid on Gavrikov, which is frankly the most likely scenario. It puts us in a tough spot. This is what I would do with what the organization might be able to control, and that includes slotting players where they belong.

Fantilli - Monahan - Marchenko
Voronkov - Brock Nelson - KJ
JVR/Nyquist* - Jenner - Chinakhov
Sillinger - Danforth - Olivier
Kuraly
ZAR

Werenski - Jokiharju/Mateychuk**
Pelech - Severson
Hunt/Richard - Mateychuk
Hunt/Richard
Gudbranson

Allen
Greaves


Brock Nelson signed $8.5m x 4.***
Adam Pelech acquired for LDBB.
Allen signed $5.25m x 2.
Nyquist signed $2.5m x 2.
Jokiharju signed $3.25m x 1.
Elvis traded with 50% retention for nothing.

*JVR and Nyquist possibly in rotation with each other. Nyquist and Jenner have had serious chemistry before. The wings will switch occasionally. Voronkov might play with Chinny and JVR back with KJ.
**Mateychuk tops up his minutes with Werenski. The Hunt-Mateychuk pairing is reunited. I like Mateychuk's chances on the right side more than anyone else.
***I'd like to do a shorter term overpay but most likely term is the only way to get Nelson.

There are some aspects of realism here - It is not ideal to make Mateychuk play the right side but realistically it will be hard for us to get good RHD and there's a good chance that someone has to slide over. Jokiharju isn't very good but he's well rounded and can spot minutes with Werenski. Severson is annoying but we can't find an upgrade on him so the coach has to learn to deal with him. He can be a rush killer and help Pelech move pucks. This D might be better overall simply because Pelech is that good. We'd finally have a high end shutdown player, at great cost losing LDBB, but it's the player we need and he's got good term. I imagine the Isles insisting on getting LDBB instead of a wing that we would sooner part with.

Obviously there are other aspects that we're not likely to see the Jackets do - I think they'll probably keep trying to make Fantilli a center for years. It might work, it might not, but they won't give up. Inertia of expectations is a powerful thing.

 

[Cowumbus]

@majormajor just one question, why bring back Kuraly?