Proposal: Carolina - Vancouver

[Big Daddy Cane]

Necas was the odd man out if Guentzel re-signed. He did not.

The way the roster is constructed, the door is wide open for him to get the top minutes that will get him paid. This is trending in the direction of the two sides settling on a 1 year deal and seeing what 24-25 brings.

 

[BCNate]

Garland had a better season last year than Necas, who is going to be making 2.5-3 mil more. If the Canucks are dealing Garland, I think they go after more of a goal scoring winger for our top6. Necas also vies himself as a C. If we were looking for 3C at 7+, we would have kept Lindholm.

 

[bleedgreen]

Lots of interesting takes in here. If everyone feels Garland is pretty close to Necas as is, then they should by all means just keep the guy. I like him as a player but it doesn’t make sense for the Canes to move Necas for him. Garland was being shopped around for essentially free last summer, was he not? I’d love to turn that into a Necas as well, but I think Necas is going to arbitration and we’ll see which guy he is this year. The 50 pt guy or the 70 pt guy. Being back on pp1 suggests he’s going to be at least a 60 pt guy.

 

[Rowlet]

Lots of interesting takes in here. If everyone feels Garland is pretty close to Necas as is, then they should by all means just keep the guy. I like him as a player but it doesn’t make sense for the Canes to move Necas for him. Garland was being shopped around for essentially free last summer, was he not? I’d love to turn that into a Necas as well, but I think Necas is going to arbitration and we’ll see which guy he is this year. The 50 pt guy or the 70 pt guy. Being back on pp1 suggests he’s going to be at least a 60 pt guy.

We are fine keeping Garland, but moving him is required for cap space.

 

[Johnsie19]

Well here's Garland with his linemate staple Dakota Joshua as per NST:

View attachment 894148

Garland has a CF and FF of 55% at ES without Joshua, Joshua on the other hand is 36% and 37% without Garland. Garland absolutely carries his line. It's also worth noting that when you only consider ice time with Hughes, normally a possession monster, Joshua's possession numbers barely improve at all if Garland isn't also on the ice.

I think corsi relative to teammates is much more useful than raw corsi compared across teams, especially when Carolina is a statistical darling year in and year out. They shoot the puck a ton, which makes their numbers look extremely good. They shoot the puck the 5th most in the league with 33.1 per game, the Canucks on the other hand shoot the puck the 26th most, at 28.5 per game. The easiest way to inflate corsi and fenwick is to shoot the puck a lot and the Canucks don't do that, the fact that Garland keeps up excellent possession stats despite the team never shooting the puck just shows how good he is, while Necas lives in a system where the mantra is to get pucks on the net but he's still below average at it.

Necas' -1.4 may not seem like much, and it probably isn't, but Garland's +6.2 rel will be sorely missed on a team that already allows a ton of CA.

Among Canucks skaters Garland was 3rd in CF% (2nd if you exclude Cole McWard who played a single really good game), and 1st in FF% this season, comparatively, Necas was 15th among Hurricanes in CF% and FF% if you exclude players who played 2 games or less. The Hurricanes also didn't have any players with a -CF% and only one with a -FF% who played more than 2 games. The Canucks had ten -CF% and eleven -FF% players when only considering over 8GP.

The first thing is I'm not contesting Garland drives play, that part is pretty obvious.

I just don't think the data says what you think it does necessarily. Put Garland on Carolina is he going to have a Corsi rel of +6 not likely. Has anyone ever had a corsi of 66%?

The other thing you'll want to factor in is quality of competition. Garland plays against 3rd line quality players. And to be fair he hasn't really looked near as good in the top 6.

Again you said Necas is below average at getting pucks to net but he is doing it more than Garland so that's where rel just can't be used as a single stat. Even together they miss quite a bit.

Anyway I don't know where we're going with this. Garland is a great possession player. And Necas is too. Necas has much higher upside and is younger is how i look at it.

 

[Rowlet]

The first thing is I'm not contesting Garland drives play, that part is pretty obvious.

I just don't think the data says what you think it does necessarily. Put Garland on Carolina is he going to have a Corsi rel of +6 not likely. Has anyone ever had a corsi of 66%?

The other thing you'll want to factor in is quality of competition. Garland plays against 3rd line quality players. And to be fair he hasn't really looked near as good in the top 6.

Again you said Necas is below average at getting pucks to net but he is doing it more than Garland so that's where rel just can't be used as a single stat. Even together they miss quite a bit.

Anyway I don't know where we're going with this. Garland is a great possession player. And Necas is too. Necas has much higher upside and is younger is how i look at it.

I don't know about 66 but 17 Hurricanes had over 59% CF% this past season, so Necas at 56 isn't that impressive to me.

Necas gets more pucks to the net but also allows way more shots against. Garland shoots less on purpose and defends better. I also said below average on his team, one that prioritizes getting shots from everywhere.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

To Vancouver
Martin Necas

To Carolina
Conor Garland
Vasili Podkolzin
25' 1st

Canes fans ain't gonna like this

 

[Johnsie19]

I don't know about 66 but 17 Hurricanes had over 59% CF% this past season, so Necas at 56 isn't that impressive to me.

Necas gets more pucks to the net but also allows way more shots against. Garland shoots less on purpose and defends better. I also said below average on his team, one that prioritizes getting shots from everywhere.

I think you are putting a bit too much into corsi rel. The reality is when Necas is on the ice his team gets nearly 60% of the chances 5v5. Youre arguing that because Jordan Staal and Martinook are higher that makes Necas worse. All the best players on Carolina are in the area of Necas. Oddly the lesser players have the outlier rel stats prob just comes down to matchups which again Garland is playing against 3rd lines.

Garland doesn't shoot less on purpose he just doesn't have a good shot. It's his biggest weakness.

Look at point shares too. Necas shows better there and obv has the higher upside.

But again we are stuck in the weed a bit because Necas would be brought into play with Petey who needs the puck a lot too.

Garland is good at playing with lesser players I think because he likes the puck but when he plays with better players it doesnt usually work because they need the puck.

Canes fans ain't gonna like this

They're warming up to it I think. You have to put it in perspective of the type of trade Carolina would want. That would be a win now move. They don't just want futures. Not many teams are giving up a top 6 cost controlled play driving fwd, prospect and 1st for Necas.

 

[Rowlet]

I think you are putting a bit too much into corsi rel. The reality is when Necas is on the ice his team gets nearly 60% of the chances 5v5. Youre arguing that because Jordan Staal and Martinook are higher that makes Necas worse. All the best players on Carolina are in the area of Necas. Oddly the lesser players have the outlier rel stats prob just comes down to matchups which again Garland is playing against 3rd lines.

Garland doesn't shoot less on purpose he just doesn't have a good shot. It's his biggest weakness.

Look at point shares too. Necas shows better there and obv has the higher upside.

But again we are stuck in the weed a bit because Necas would be brought into play with Petey who needs the puck a lot too.

Garland is good at playing with lesser players I think because he likes the puck but when he plays with better players it doesnt usually work because they need the puck.

When any Hurricane is on the ice they get nearly 60% of the chances 5v5. Their lowest 5v5 CF% player with more than a few games is like 54%, they play in a system that inflates corsi, dude, I don't know how else to explain it. They have 24 skaters with over 54%, the Canucks had 2 and they were Quinn Hughes and Connor Garland.

When Kuznetzov was traded, he went from a 43.6% CF% to 54.3% CF% at ES and Guentzel went from 56.3% CF% to 60.2% CF%.

I don't care about Garland shooting, I care about the team's shots being drastically higher when Garland is on the ice, while also limiting chances against at a higher rate than any other Canuck. I also don't mean that Garland literally shoots less, I meant that the team waits for high danger chances instead of just firing pucks like the Hurricanes do.

I just don't think you understand how effective Garland is for the Canucks.

and here's Necas from Jfresh:



He doesn't play defense and he doesn't help on the powerplay, he takes a ton of shots and bleeds shots against.



Jfresh's Garland card on the other hand has Garland's defense a mere 87 percentage points better than Necas, while only being 11 points lower on ES offence. They're actually equally effective on the powerplay. They're actually equal in shot effectiveness while Garland has a higher impact on both goals and chances, while Garland is more effective off the rush.

Garland also receives much fewer HD passes than Necas does while entering the zone at an elite rate, 25 points higher than Necas. Garland also dishes out high danger passes at an elite level while Necas struggles. Necas' primary assist effectiveness is only 46% as well, while Garland is almost at 90.

It's not really worth continuing since you seem to be set with Necas being better, and I agree that he's generally younger and more skilled but Garland contributes to the team so much more than Necas would, but removing Garland, a 1st, + more would hurt the team more than it would help, especially when you consider that Necas' next contract will be 7m+.

 

[Chan790]

They're warming up to it I think. You have to put it in perspective of the type of trade Carolina would want. That would be a win now move. They don't just want futures. Not many teams are giving up a top 6 cost controlled play driving fwd, prospect and 1st for Necas.

I assure you we're not. This is pretty much our nightmare, moving Necas for a less offensively dynamic F when we're light of offense and heavy on two-way middle-6 multi-tool guys like Garland.

This is pretty much the epitome of the bad trade we feared getting backed into as other offers fell apart...we're better served with Necas in arbitration and trying again later. No trade is better than this trade.

 

[bleedgreen]

People keep saying the Canes don’t want futures. The rumors on draft day say that a deal was essentially completed for Necas with Cbus and the fourth pick, with a preceding rumor the Canes were talking to Buffalo about their pick.

Anyone saying the Canes want this deal because the Canes don’t want futures is about as far off as you can be. The canes want value. It’s how they draft, it’s how they do free agency, it’s usually how they trade. They obviously aren’t always right but they chase value. If the best value they can get out of Necas is futures then they obviously are going to do that.

This all sounds too late anyways. It looks like Necas is going to be signed for a year or two, looks pretty strong that he’s going to be with the Canes this season.

 

[Johnsie19]

I assure you we're not. This is pretty much our nightmare, moving Necas for a less offensively dynamic F when we're light of offense and heavy on two-way middle-6 multi-tool guys like Garland.

This is pretty much the epitome of the bad trade we feared getting backed into as other offers fell apart...we're better served with Necas in arbitration and trying again later. No trade is better than this trade.

Can you even get Jarvis, Drury and Necas in under the cap?

11 mil it looks like you have. Jarvis supposedly could be in around 8 himself, Necas probably 7 and not sure on Drury.

 

[mriswith]

I wouldn't trade Garland straight up for Necas.

Garland outproduces Necas at even strength and Necas wants ~7M+ to do it. No thanks.

 

[Johnsie19]

When any Hurricane is on the ice they get nearly 60% of the chances 5v5. Their lowest 5v5 CF% player with more than a few games is like 54%, they play in a system that inflates corsi, dude, I don't know how else to explain it. They have 24 skaters with over 54%, the Canucks had 2 and they were Quinn Hughes and Connor Garland.

When Kuznetzov was traded, he went from a 43.6% CF% to 54.3% CF% at ES and Guentzel went from 56.3% CF% to 60.2% CF%.

I don't care about Garland shooting, I care about the team's shots being drastically higher when Garland is on the ice, while also limiting chances against at a higher rate than any other Canuck. I also don't mean that Garland literally shoots less, I meant that the team waits for high danger chances instead of just firing pucks like the Hurricanes do.

I just don't think you understand how effective Garland is for the Canucks.

View attachment 894439

View attachment 894440

and here's Necas from Jfresh:

View attachment 894442

He doesn't play defense and he doesn't help on the powerplay, he takes a ton of shots and bleeds shots against.

View attachment 894446

Jfresh's Garland card on the other hand has Garland's defense a mere 87 percentage points better than Necas, while only being 11 points lower on ES offence. They're actually equally effective on the powerplay. They're actually equal in shot effectiveness while Garland has a higher impact on both goals and chances, while Garland is more effective off the rush.

Garland also receives much fewer HD passes than Necas does while entering the zone at an elite rate, 25 points higher than Necas. Garland also dishes out high danger passes at an elite level while Necas struggles. Necas' primary assist effectiveness is only 46% as well, while Garland is almost at 90.

It's not really worth continuing since you seem to be set with Necas being better, and I agree that he's generally younger and more skilled but Garland contributes to the team so much more than Necas would, but removing Garland, a 1st, + more would hurt the team more than it would help, especially when you consider that Necas' next contract will be 7m+.

Bunting's corsi rel went up -3.2 to +8.3 going from Carolina to Pittsburgh. Change of scenery usually follows with a bump in opportunities I'm guessing.

You're right most Hurricanes corsi for is around 60% but the outliers are not the best players. They're Martinook, Staal, Fast.

It's not as simple as taking more shots inflates corsi, keeping possession might also inflate corsi because you don't give up chances against. It might inflate defense as well.

I'll reiterate too, Garland plays against soft matchups.

You are saying Necas bleeds chances but he has a 60% corsi. Much higher than Garland's.

The other thing to consider is just go back a yr. Necas basically had the yr Garland had last yr this yr. He had a much publicized row with his coach and it's the only reason he's available at all.

This was 2022-23

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/01/03133045/Screenshot-2023-04-03-at-1.11.31-PM.png
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/01/03122142/Screenshot-2023-04-03-at-11.16.34-AM.png

Even Garland this yr his value was 7.7 where as Necas was 9.1 last yr.

You can look at offensive point shares where Necas is better and Defensive point shares where Necas is better.

The difference outside of all of this is you're targeting a highly skilled and young player to play with Pettersson and the cost would probably have to be Garland which again is mitigated by having signed a number 3rd line capable wingers.

You're comparing a down yr for Necas to Garland having a great yr. Do you have jfresh cards for each from last yr?

 

[Johnsie19]

When any Hurricane is on the ice they get nearly 60% of the chances 5v5. Their lowest 5v5 CF% player with more than a few games is like 54%, they play in a system that inflates corsi, dude, I don't know how else to explain it. They have 24 skaters with over 54%, the Canucks had 2 and they were Quinn Hughes and Connor Garland.

When Kuznetzov was traded, he went from a 43.6% CF% to 54.3% CF% at ES and Guentzel went from 56.3% CF% to 60.2% CF%.

I don't care about Garland shooting, I care about the team's shots being drastically higher when Garland is on the ice, while also limiting chances against at a higher rate than any other Canuck. I also don't mean that Garland literally shoots less, I meant that the team waits for high danger chances instead of just firing pucks like the Hurricanes do.

I just don't think you understand how effective Garland is for the Canucks.

View attachment 894439

View attachment 894440

and here's Necas from Jfresh:

View attachment 894442

He doesn't play defense and he doesn't help on the powerplay, he takes a ton of shots and bleeds shots against.

View attachment 894446

Jfresh's Garland card on the other hand has Garland's defense a mere 87 percentage points better than Necas, while only being 11 points lower on ES offence. They're actually equally effective on the powerplay. They're actually equal in shot effectiveness while Garland has a higher impact on both goals and chances, while Garland is more effective off the rush.

Garland also receives much fewer HD passes than Necas does while entering the zone at an elite rate, 25 points higher than Necas. Garland also dishes out high danger passes at an elite level while Necas struggles. Necas' primary assist effectiveness is only 46% as well, while Garland is almost at 90.

It's not really worth continuing since you seem to be set with Necas being better, and I agree that he's generally younger and more skilled but Garland contributes to the team so much more than Necas would, but removing Garland, a 1st, + more would hurt the team more than it would help, especially when you consider that Necas' next contract will be 7m+.

There the formatting i was looking for. This is 2022-23

 

[Kielbasa]

Garland is a lot more than you make him out to be. He is easily a top 6 calibre player. The Canucks happened to use him on the third line because he drives play at even strength with some of the best in the league. He was also one of the best Canucks during our playoff run. So ya I have to push back pretty strongly there. I'm not saying he's an all star either but he is a play driver and excellent bang for buck player which is part of why I think he'd be a great fit in Carolina.

I love me some Garland. And that's coming from a Flames fan. Dude's a little buzzsaw. Necas is the better scorer probably, but Garland would be an effective replacement.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Can you even get Jarvis, Drury and Necas in under the cap?

11 mil it looks like you have. Jarvis supposedly could be in around 8 himself, Necas probably 7 and not sure on Drury.

- Necas isn’t getting $7 mil via arbitration or the threat of it. His 1 year cost will be closer $6 mil. Look at Reinhart, Fiala and Bratt in a comparable situation.

- PuckPedia’s estimate is ~$11.6 mil with 21 skaters pre Necas, Jarvis and Drury. Nadeau in Chicago brings it to ~$12.5 mil. 3 healthy scratch forwards is excessive. One of Robinson/Jost will go down with him. That brings it up to ~$13.25 mil or more.

- Fast’s health is unknown. If he’s LTIR bound, they’ll spend every dollar (~$15.7 mil). Plug in Necas at $6 mil and Drury at $2.25 mil (Kurashev comp), and that leaves ~$7.5 mil for a Jarvis long-term deal.

- If Fast is on the mend, they have options in the arbitration buyout window (Kuznetsov/Kotkaniemi).

- Jarvis could be bridged. We assume that he’s set for a long-term deal, but does he want that?

 

[Johnsie19]

- Necas isn’t getting $7 mil via arbitration or the threat of it. His 1 year cost will be closer $6 mil. Look at Reinhart, Fiala and Bratt in a comparable situation.

- PuckPedia’s estimate is ~$11.6 mil with 21 skaters pre Necas, Jarvis and Drury. Nadeau in Chicago brings it to ~$12.5 mil. 3 healthy scratch forwards is excessive. One of Robinson/Jost will go down with him. That brings it up to ~$13.25 mil or more.

- Fast’s health is unknown. If he’s LTIR bound, they’ll spend every dollar (~$15.7 mil). Plug in Necas at $6 mil and Drury at $2.25 mil (Kurashev comp), and that leaves ~$7.5 mil for a Jarvis long-term deal.

- If Fast is on the mend, they have options in the arbitration buyout window (Kuznetsov/Kotkaniemi).

- Jarvis could be bridged. We assume that he’s set for a long-term deal, but does he want that?

So Garland's cost effective deal has some potential extra value it sounds.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

So Garland's cost effective deal has some potential extra value it sounds.

My point was that it is to the contrary. The savings will be marginal, assuming Necas goes the prove-it route (trending that way).

He has the dynamic skill Carolina needs. I’ve never cared for Garland’s fit in Carolina’s lineup and still don’t. The Canes have a better version of him in Jarvis. One is enough.