Friedman: Carolina likely to offer an 8 year, $100+ M contract to Rantanen before the deadline

[BKarchitect]

If he ends up enjoying his time in Carolina, slow start notwithstanding, I think they can keep it in the $12.5-$12.75 range.

$12.5 is the magic number. It still meets the requirements of 8x100 while it is just a shade below MacKinnon…so if we take the reports at face value that he was willing to accept less than MacK but wanted more than the Avs internal evaluation for that length of deal, you’re at the 12.5 mark.

I think Carolina will try to keep it in the 12’s even if there is a bit of a markup for no “team discount”.

Doesn’t mean all sides will agree but I just think that’s where the number will settle. It still sets a new bar for wingers.

 

[hullsy47]

It's 20% right?

So 20% of $95.5M = $19.1M

I don't think Rantanen can take that kind of number. But he can set a new precedent for the next tier if he wants to. Like in the $14-15M tier? Which will still temporarily put him #1 in the league.

McDavid is going to blast past all that if he wants to with the first $20M AAV next year.

I thought dreger says marner wants 20 million

 

[DaveG]

If they give him this contract, Brind'Amour will be fired in a season because he doesn't fit his system. They really need a pucking moving defenseman to replace and aging Burns. Rantanan will be a 65 point player in Carolina making $12-13 million a year.

thankfully we have a pretty good one of those coming over from the KHL basically as soon as their season ends.

 

[TheBigLetowski]

If they're not offering him significantly more than $98M why would Rantanen not just take his chance in UFA and get to choose the exact location he wants???

Feels like Carolina is once again going to screw themselves by trying to be too smart

Is anyone going to offer him 15 mil x 7yrs(105 total). Is Mikko a 15mil winger in the league? Yes I am aware of the rising cap, but he's not a center. Canes know what he was "asking" in Colorado or they don't make the deal. They offer him 13x8 and he gets almost the same $$$.

 

[Stephen]

I think Rantanen is going to feel too emotional/disturbed by the Colorado negotiations/trade to be rushed into signing with Carolina.

Feels like Hurricanes need to approach this with a soft touch to get it done—and instead there has already been too much brinkmanship through the media.

In the last couple days we’ve now seen leaked what they are offering or heard that they may yet flip him if he doesn’t sign.

Feels like they are trying to nudge him with a sledgehammer.

I feel the same way as you. Obviously these trades don’t happen every day so the Canes had to jump at the chance but I feel like they’re getting an emotionally damaged player who won’t be 100% for this run. And good luck soft selling him on a long term marriage proposal. I just don’t see Rantanen vibing down there yet. And $12.5 million wouldn’t be a cutting edge bid.

 

[boltsfan86]

I feel the same way as you. Obviously these trades don’t happen every day so the Canes had to jump at the chance but I feel like they’re getting an emotionally damaged player who won’t be 100% for this run. And good luck soft selling him on a long term marriage proposal. I just don’t see Rantanen vibing down there yet. And $12.5 million wouldn’t be a cutting edge bid.

Agreed with all above. Rightly or wrongly, it feels like Carolina still feels scorned about how things played out last year with Guentzel and are trying to feel better about it by locking down Rantanen ASAP. And I don't really blame them for wanting to do so. But if you're Rantanen who just saw Guentzel leave after Carolina had a more promising regular season/playoff run than TB and probably had around the same amount of money on the table as he did in Tampa, that might give you pause as to why he didn't want to stick around. I think you're right about both Rantanen feeling hurt by the trade and not vibing down there yet. This is totally subjective but something just feels a little "off" about the Canes. It feels like every year they ice a great team "on paper," have a consensus great coach in Brind'amour, and now supposedly have a genius GM in Tulsky, but they haven't made a significant dent in the playoff bracket yet and (although the sample size is tiny) they went out and got their true superstar and it didn't click immediately like they were probably hoping. Now it seems like they're trying to strongarm him into signing somewhere he didn't even think about playing a month or two ago for the rest of his prime/most of his career. Will definitely be interesting to see how it plays out

 

[Ncit3]

Agreed with all above. Rightly or wrongly, it feels like Carolina still feels scorned about how things played out last year with Guentzel and are trying to feel better about it by locking down Rantanen ASAP. And I don't really blame them for wanting to do so. But if you're Rantanen who just saw Guentzel leave after Carolina had a more promising regular season/playoff run than TB and probably had around the same amount of money on the table as he did in Tampa, that might give you pause as to why he didn't want to stick around. I think you're right about both Rantanen feeling hurt by the trade and not vibing down there yet. This is totally subjective but something just feels a little "off" about the Canes. It feels like every year they ice a great team "on paper," have a consensus great coach in Brind'amour, and now supposedly have a genius GM in Tulsky, but they haven't made a significant dent in the playoff bracket yet and (although the sample size is tiny) they went out and got their true superstar and it didn't click immediately like they were probably hoping. Now it seems like they're trying to strongarm him into signing somewhere he didn't even think about playing a month or two ago for the rest of his prime/most of his career. Will definitely be interesting to see how it plays out

It's one of those weird trades where maybe they got the better player in the deal but Necas seemed like he was okay with leaving. Either he asked for a trade to get first line and PP1 time or he was just understanding he could be moved. While Mikko, for all we have heard, was happy in Colorado and wanted to be part of the Avs long term and was maybe spurned a bit by his agent not representing his true feelings.

I think Mikko could work well in Carolina. I just think he's really not going to like the style. Necas looks like he's having fun finally.

 

[The Burdened]

with the cap going up so much over the next 3 years, his agent will be doing him a huge disservice by not letting him test the market

 

[boltsfan86]

It's one of those weird trades where maybe they got the better player in the deal but Necas seemed like he was okay with leaving. Either he asked for a trade to get first line and PP1 time or he was just understanding he could be moved. While Mikko, for all we have heard, was happy in Colorado and wanted to be part of the Avs long term and was maybe spurned a bit by his agent not representing his true feelings.

I think Mikko could work well in Carolina. I just think he's really not going to like the style. Necas looks like he's having fun finally.

You're right, and with all due respect to the great players Carolina has, none of them would be as easy or fun to play with as an all-world player like MacKinnon. Nor would it be easy to replicate that kind of success. It just doesn't look like a great fit early on, at least not like it was. If they end up having to trade Rantanen, I think it would be a really bad look for Carolina to basically admit that they took a huge swing at a star player who doesn't want to be there for a second time in short order and that their roster was better/more cohesive before the trade.

with the cap going up so much over the next 3 years, his agent will be doing him a huge disservice by not letting him test the market

This is also true. I feel like a Chicago or a Utah or maybe even an Ottawa or Philly would pull up the Brinks truck and offer him something crazy.

 

[PAZ]

Is anyone going to offer him 15 mil x 7yrs(105 total). Is Mikko a 15mil winger in the league? Yes I am aware of the rising cap, but he's not a center. Canes know what he was "asking" in Colorado or they don't make the deal. They offer him 13x8 and he gets almost the same $$$.

I want to say yes, a team like Chicago would offer close to $105 mil if he hits UFA. Rants is in that magic age range where he can fit in every team’s plan.

But staying in Carolina should be a lot more enticing than going to a rebuilding team like Chicago. I expect a deal will get done in the $13-13.5 mil with a full NMC.

 

[spockBokk]

with the cap going up so much over the next 3 years, his agent will be doing him a huge disservice by not letting him test the market

You know he’s only going to be able to take advantage of the cap going up this year, right?

Would you advise him to take 1yr deals over a guaranteed 8yr deal just to get a few more million on each short-term deal?

 

[qc14]

Is anyone going to offer him 15 mil x 7yrs(105 total). Is Mikko a 15mil winger in the league? Yes I am aware of the rising cap, but he's not a center. Canes know what he was "asking" in Colorado or they don't make the deal. They offer him 13x8 and he gets almost the same $$$.

I think a team could offer him $15Mx7. It probably won't be $15M, but he also probably will be getting another contract in the 8th year if he does go with a new team and 7 which narrows the gap even further. I also think it's possible a guy like Rantanen might leave some money on the table to choose the spot he wants to be in long-term. If I had the choice between making $105M in one set location that was dictated to me or $98M in a location of my choosing I would probably go with the second.

The bigger point though is that it seems like Carolina is once again trying to play hardball with a premium UFA to the point that it doesn't become a given they're going to re-sign. You'd think that after the Guentzel fiasco they'd have learned their lesson and just given him the $14Mx8 he's probably asking for.

 

[boltsfan86]

I think a team could offer him $15Mx7. It probably won't be $15M, but he also probably will be getting another contract in the 8th year if he does go with a new team and 7 which narrows the gap even further. I also think it's possible a guy like Rantanen might leave some money on the table to choose the spot he wants to be in long-term. If I had the choice between making $105M in one set location that was dictated to me or $98M in a location of my choosing I would probably go with the second.

The bigger point though is that it seems like Carolina is once again trying to play hardball with a premium UFA to the point that it doesn't become a given they're going to re-sign. You'd think that after the Guentzel fiasco they'd have learned their lesson and just given him the $14Mx8 he's probably asking for.

It's wild that they could probably have offered Guentzel something like $9-10M AAV and convinced him to stay but a year later they're staring down potentially giving Rantanen $14M+ a year. I doubt he's signing for a penny less than he would have probably gotten from Colorado, particularly because that's where he wanted to be

 

[CanesUltimate11]

Agreed with all above. Rightly or wrongly, it feels like Carolina still feels scorned about how things played out last year with Guentzel and are trying to feel better about it by locking down Rantanen ASAP. And I don't really blame them for wanting to do so. But if you're Rantanen who just saw Guentzel leave after Carolina had a more promising regular season/playoff run than TB and probably had around the same amount of money on the table as he did in Tampa, that might give you pause as to why he didn't want to stick around. I think you're right about both Rantanen feeling hurt by the trade and not vibing down there yet. This is totally subjective but something just feels a little "off" about the Canes. It feels like every year they ice a great team "on paper," have a consensus great coach in Brind'amour, and now supposedly have a genius GM in Tulsky, but they haven't made a significant dent in the playoff bracket yet and (although the sample size is tiny) they went out and got their true superstar and it didn't click immediately like they were probably hoping. Now it seems like they're trying to strongarm him into signing somewhere he didn't even think about playing a month or two ago for the rest of his prime/most of his career. Will definitely be interesting to see how it plays out

With Guenztel all reports are they just waited too long to meet his ask of 8x8. By the time they did it was close enough to free agency / he already knew what he'd get from Tampa so that's what he went for.

If they're ready to offer Rantanen 13x8 then they're well on their way to fixing the issue of waiting too long for the offer. Unless he thinks he'll get 14 or 15 from someone anyway.

 

[boltsfan86]

With Guenztel all reports are they just waited too long to meet his ask of 8x8. By the time they did it was close enough to free agency / he already knew what he'd get from Tampa so that's what he went for.

If they're ready to offer Rantanen 13x8 then they're well on their way to fixing the issue of waiting too long for the offer. Unless he thinks he'll get 14 or 15 from someone anyway.

I don't see why Chicago wouldn't throw 15 million at him, sounds like they really want him based on the rumors I've seen.

Nice to see a fellow Northern Virginian on here too. No wonder your comments are so intelligent and civilized

 

[CanesUltimate11]

I don't see why Chicago wouldn't throw 15 million at him, sounds like they really want him based on the rumors I've seen.

Nice to see a fellow Northern Virginian on here too. No wonder your comments are so intelligent and civilized

Yeah but then he'd have to play for Chicago.

NOVA!

 

[McJedi]

I love Rants, but if he walks away from an 8 x $12.5MM offer from a contender like the Avs or Canes... this is a dude you don't want on your team on a 8 year deal. Because that's a guy playing entirely for money in the back-half of his career when his name is already on the Cup/legacy secure.

That's a contract with the potential to age badly if he's not really motivated beyond cashing paychecks.

Rants is one of those October birthdays so you already lost a year of his career based on being one of the oldest players in his draft. He'll be 29 as his next contract starts. He's 36 by the end of this deal. I don't know... age 33-36 could be not so bueno here... assuming he's lost his drive to compete.

 

[DaveG]

It's one of those weird trades where maybe they got the better player in the deal but Necas seemed like he was okay with leaving. Either he asked for a trade to get first line and PP1 time or he was just understanding he could be moved. While Mikko, for all we have heard, was happy in Colorado and wanted to be part of the Avs long term and was maybe spurned a bit by his agent not representing his true feelings.

I think Mikko could work well in Carolina. I just think he's really not going to like the style. Necas looks like he's having fun finally.

The bolded basically happened last season. He was getting 2nd line/PP 2 usage last year and (via his father) it leaked out into the press and became a bit of a thing with the team. That said his usage and play earlier this season seemed to be mending fences a good bit between the two parties so there was hope that something could have been worked out for an extension. This apparently was a trade idea going back to last years draft though without a hint of publicity outside of some talk around finding Necas a landing spot he'd be willing to sign long-term so it does make sense that the two parties would re-visit if Colorado still had concerns about re-signing Rants.

 

[10YearsAfter]

Hawks offer S.Jones (no retention), 1st (TOR), and Donato (full retention)
for RANT w/ conditional signing of a 7 x 14.5

Canes could use Jones in a big way

 

[Chrispy]

Hawks offer S.Jones (no retention), 1st (TOR), and Donato (full retention)
for RANT w/ conditional signing of a 7 x 14.5

Canes could use Jones in a big way

Change the full retention to Jones and I could see Carolina considering it.

No, Chicago won't do it. But I don't see Carolina having interest in Jones for 5 years at 9.5.

Carolina dealing for Jones would have to look like the Brent Burns deal back in 2022. And Burns was playing better then than Jones is right now.

 

[10YearsAfter]

Change the full retention to Jones and I could see Carolina considering it.

No, Chicago won't do it. But I don't see Carolina having interest in Jones for 5 years at 9.5.

i could argue that Jones is a better fit than Rant for CAR

 

[spockBokk]

i could argue that Jones is a better fit than Rant for CAR

Please make this argument. Also please expand upon the your proposal as to why the Canes should consider taking on Jones at his full cap hit.

 

[10YearsAfter]

Please make this argument. Also please expand upon the your proposal as to why the Canes should consider taking on Jones at his full cap hit.

Jones instantly becomes 1D in CAR. 9.5 not nearly as bad as it was prior to cap increase. He's also playing lights out since inj. return

 

[AvsGuy]

^^ lol

Jones is not better than Slavin

 

[SensontheRush]

Colorado couldn't do $12.5m x 8? He has to be asking for more.

Rantanen would be perfect beside Stutzle... If CAR doesn't have a contract in place before the trade deadline, would they keep him as a "self rental" rental or look to move him?