Proposal: Carolina- Colorado

[CanadienShark]

Yeah... this isn't good for Colorado.

Faulk for Duchene is more or less fair.

Barrie is worth more than Stempniak + two 2nds. If a trade has to happen, I'd suggest something like:

Duchene + Barrie for Faulk + Rask

Then again, I'm not sure why either team would actually do that.


I think there might be a potential deal there for these teams. The Canes have a sweet set of d-men. The Avs could go after one of Hanifin or Slavin.

 

[DaveG]

Thing is the return on either of those two isn't Duchene, it's MacKinnon. And that seems like a total non-starter from the Colorado end.

 

[Foppberg]

If we were to deal him to Carolina, I'd rather have Hanifin or Slavin.

 

[RodTheBawd]

And I'd rather have MacKinnon.

 

[CanadienShark]

Thing is the return on either of those two isn't Duchene, it's MacKinnon. And that seems like a total non-starter from the Colorado end.

You talking to me? If so, that's fair. I haven't seen enough of Slavin to form a good enough opinion, but I've thought of Hanifin as a potential #1 for a long time. I've been a big fan of his since his draft year. I think Duchene is in the discussion for either though. He's a proven #1C and not exactly old.

 

[Foppberg]

And I'd rather have MacKinnon.

Who wouldn't? MacKinnon is a more valuable player right now.

 

[SensNation613]

Avs fans understandably want Hanafin in a Duchene trade, but I think there is also some significant dismissal of Faulk and what he could bring. I do think it would be Faulk + for Duchene.

Barrie is not a guy who is reliant on his strong side board play, so moving him to the left probably has little effect on his overall play in either zone (I'd argue it would help him in the O-zone).

There aren't going to many offers, especially in season of DMen the caliber and within the age range of Faulk. If push comes to shove, a Duchene for Faulk + trade wouldn't be that disappointing.

As a neutral observer, I think Faulk would have more value than Duchene.

 

[DaveG]

You talking to me? If so, that's fair. I haven't seen enough of Slavin to form a good enough opinion, but I've thought of Hanifin as a potential #1 for a long time. I've been a big fan of his since his draft year. I think Duchene is in the discussion for either though. He's a proven #1C and not exactly old.

Yep, adding it as an addendum rather then debating.

Slavin's simply unreal for a 22yo dman. Excellent skating, so poised, very active stick defensively. Seemingly any time you see a good offensive chance being broken up and out of the zone easily by the Canes anymore it's Slavin that's doing it. He's not quite the offensive weapon Faulk is but his defensive game is already better IMHO. Only two guys in a redraft from that year that should be in the same conversation at this point are Galchenyuk and Forsberg.

 

[MinJaBen]

Just thinking about Duchene to the Canes without anyone else coming with him....would the Avs be willing to do it for futures? Something like Duchene for Fleury/Bean and a 2017 1st round pick? As some have said before, I think the Canes aren't quite there yet where this trade gets them to a Cup, but it might be close if we aren't sending back a current roster player(s).

 

[JoemAvs]

Just thinking about Duchene to the Canes without anyone else coming with him....would the Avs be willing to do it for futures? Something like Duchene for Fleury/Bean and a 2017 1st round pick? As some have said before, I think the Canes aren't quite there yet where this trade gets them to a Cup, but it might be close if we aren't sending back a current roster player(s).

Nope. Neither Fleury or Bean are good bets to become #1 Ds and that is what we would need in return. We already will be picking high in a draft you don't really want to pick high. Don't want to double down on that by trading Duchene even if the value in general is probably fine. Maybe at the draft if we know who exactly is there but I doubt it.


The ask for Duchene is Hanifin (or maybe Slavin but not sure about that. Don't get me wrong he is great but very much under the radar. Not sure you can get away with trading our old franchise player for him just from a PR standpoint).

I understand why the Canes (fans) would be reluctant to do that but Hanifin is exactly what the Avs need in return if they trade Duchene. (very similar deal as the RyJo - Jones swap).

And we also understand that a guy like Duchene is exactly what Carolina needs (well known #1C who has been a staple for Team Canada over the recent years and won Olympic Gold with them who has a very exciting playstyle and can put butts into seats).

Of course in the end Canes will probably just keep Hanifin (or ask for MacKinnon which is a complete non-starter for the Avs by the way) and hope that he blossoms.

But sooner or later you will have to trade some of those young Ds for forwards in order to get anywhere.
I mean it is better to be in that spot than it being the other way around for the Avs (high-end forwards , desperate need for Ds) but pulling off a major deal is very hard because guys like Duchene (young, term, no-major red-flags, great resumee, low risk) are not available all that often because teams usually prefer to keep them the same way teams usually hang onto guys like Hanifin or Jones.

So longstory summarized into one sentence:
No, that proposal would not fetch Duchene because that would require Hanifin going the other way.

 

[MinJaBen]

Nope. Neither Fleury or Bean are good bets to become #1 Ds and that is what we would need in return. We already will be picking high in a draft you don't really want to pick high. Don't want to double down on that by trading Duchene even if the value in general is probably fine. Maybe at the draft if we know who exactly is there but I doubt it.


The ask for Duchene is Hanifin (or maybe Slavin but not sure about that. Don't get me wrong he is great but very much under the radar. Not sure you can get away with trading our old franchise player for him just from a PR standpoint).

I understand why the Canes (fans) would be reluctant to do that but Hanifin is exactly what the Avs need in return if they trade Duchene. (very similar deal as the RyJo - Jones swap).

And we also understand that a guy like Duchene is exactly what Carolina needs (well known #1C who has been a staple for Team Canada over the recent years and won Olympic Gold with them who has a very exciting playstyle and can put butts into seats).

Of course in the end Canes will probably just keep Hanifin (or ask for MacKinnon which is a complete non-starter for the Avs by the way) and hope that he blossoms.

But sooner or later you will have to trade some of those young Ds for forwards in order to get anywhere.
I mean it is better to be in that spot than it being the other way around for the Avs (high-end forwards , desperate need for Ds) but pulling off a major deal is very hard because guys like Duchene (young, term, no-major red-flags, great resumee, low risk) are not available all that often because teams usually prefer to keep them the same way teams usually hang onto guys like Hanifin or Jones.

So longstory summarized into one sentence:
No, that proposal would not fetch Duchene because that would require Hanifin going the other way.

Your arguments certainly have merit. I think in the Avs position, I'd push for the same type of return. From the Canes perspective, I'd probably not do the trade if Hanifin or Slavin were the required return and look to other options.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

If Carolina wants Duchene they would need to send Hanifin.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The ask for Duchene is Hanifin (or maybe Slavin but not sure about that. Don't get me wrong he is great but very much under the radar. Not sure you can get away with trading our old franchise player for him just from a PR standpoint).

I understand why the Canes (fans) would be reluctant to do that but Hanifin is exactly what the Avs need in return if they trade Duchene. (very similar deal as the RyJo - Jones swap).

It's not really that similar to the RyJo-Jones swap. Those two are only 2 years apart in age and Johansen was on a contract where he is still an RFA when it expires, so both players would be under each team's control for a long time. Duchene is 6 years older than Hanifin and is a UFA in 2.5 seasons. BIG difference. The move that is closer to a RyJo-Jones deal is MacKinnon for Hanifin. MacKinnon is 2 years older than Hanifin and both players would be under their respective team's control for a long time. I realize why Avs fans wouldn't want to do that, but if you would be looking to get Hanifin, then that's the type of deal it would take IMO.

And we also understand that a guy like Duchene is exactly what Carolina needs (well known #1C who has been a staple for Team Canada over the recent years and won Olympic Gold with them who has a very exciting playstyle and can put butts into seats).

I beg to differ here. 1 player, unless it's Crosby, Ovechkin or McDavid isn't going to put butts in the seats in Carolina. WINNING consistently is the only thing that will. Just having Duchene on the team wouldn't move the needle.

Of course in the end Canes will probably just keep Hanifin (or ask for MacKinnon which is a complete non-starter for the Avs by the way) and hope that he blossoms.

Yep, and I described why above.

But sooner or later you will have to trade some of those young Ds for forwards in order to get anywhere.

Probably right, just don't see the move of trading a 19 year old who is under team's control for many years for a guy that's a UFA in 2.5 years.

 

[JoemAvs]

It's not really that similar to the RyJo-Jones swap. Those two are only 2 years apart in age and Johansen was on a contract where he is still an RFA when it expires, so both players would be under each team's control for a long time. Duchene is 6 years older than Hanifin and is a UFA in 2.5 seasons. BIG difference. The move that is closer to a RyJo-Jones deal is MacKinnon for Hanifin. MacKinnon is 2 years older than Hanifin and both players would be under their respective team's control for a long time. I realize why Avs fans wouldn't want to do that, but if you would be looking to get Hanifin, then that's the type of deal it would take IMO.



I beg to differ here. 1 player, unless it's Crosby, Ovechkin or McDavid isn't going to put butts in the seats in Carolina. WINNING consistently is the only thing that will. Just having Duchene on the team wouldn't move the needle.



Yep, and I described why above.



Probably right, just don't see the move of trading a 19 year old who is under team's control for many years for a guy that's a UFA in 2.5 years.

Yeah you are right about the age difference. But lets not forget that RyJo and the CBJ front office had a massive falling out IIRC and there were some serious questions about his future . Also I think RyJo was around 4 years away from UFA . I think taking contract status into account is silly in general if it is >2 years unless there are major concerns with the player (like it was with ROR).
Since the cap circumventing contacts have been outlawed, who was the last top tier player that bolted if his current team was willing to pay him?

Duchene signed for a discount so he is not exactly the type of guy that goes to the highest bidder the first chance he gets. I mean we should probably trade him to Nashville because that is where he fits best with his country music and general style but I really do not see him as a flight risk personally.

And his favorite team would have already traded him away so if you pay him fairly, you probably get a solid #1 C for the next decade out of him.


And no MacKinnon for Hanifin is not close. MacKinnon is worth way more right now than RyJo was back then IMO.

Duchene is way more in the ballpark when it comes to value than Mac is compared to RyJo.

Hanifin and Jones (at the time of the trade) are about the same with probably a slight edge towards Jones (generational hype, American, higher offensive potential, etc.)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yeah you are right about the age difference. But lets not forget that RyJo and the CBJ front office had a massive falling out IIRC and there were some serious questions about his future . Also I think RyJo was around 4 years away from UFA . I think taking contract status into account is silly in general if it is >2 years unless there are major concerns with the player (like it was with ROR).
Since the cap circumventing contacts have been outlawed, who was the last top tier player that bolted if his current team was willing to pay him?

I disagree that taking into account contract status is silly. We're talking about 1 player (Hanifin) who is 6 years younger and will be under the team's control for many years vs. another who will be a UFA in 2.5 years. Of course a GM HAS to take that into consideration and he'd be a ****** GM if he didn't. If the Canes were close to being a contender, that would be a different situation, but they aren't. Canes have not been a hotbed for UFAs and even resigning UFAs. Recently, they traded for Sekera, who played great for them and tried very hard to re-sign him and he bolted. Erik Cole is another and he had/has HUGE ties to Carolina. That's not the first nor the last case so assuming Duchene will re-sign is, well, silly and ignoring the reality. Particularly since Duchene will be 28 at that time and it's his last real chance at a good contract and getting to play where ever he wants.

And no MacKinnon for Hanifin is not close. MacKinnon is worth way more right now than RyJo was back then IMO.

How they are playing today? Yes. Long term potential? IMO...No.

Duchene is way more in the ballpark when it comes to value than Mac is compared to RyJo.

Only if your value ignores age, contract and how long the player is under a teams control.

 

[GoldiFox]

Canes aren't trading 5.5 more guaranteed, cost-controlled years of Hanifin for 2.5 years of Duchene. Simply not happening. If Colorado is sure they can sign him to a nice long, reasonable contract then maybe it is an idea worth revisiting once he is re-signed. Until then, if Colorado wants Hanifin then MacKinnon is the one being sent over.

 

[Chan790]

Canes aren't trading 5.5 more guaranteed, cost-controlled years of Hanifin for 2.5 years of Duchene. Simply not happening. If Colorado is sure they can sign him to a nice long, reasonable contract then maybe it is an idea worth revisiting once he is re-signed. Until then, if Colorado wants Hanifin then MacKinnon is the one being sent over.

That's really the short of it...Duchene isn't the centerpiece of a deal for Hanifin or Slavin from the Canes perspective currently and possibly ever.

 

[JoemAvs]

That would basically mean that players signed for 6 years are generally more valuable than players signed for 3 years which they obviously are not judging by almost everything we know.

It is true that young player under longterm control hold extra value but that is obviously already factored into the whole equation.

Duchene right now is a 25 year old #1 C who is a staple for the best national team in the world and an olympic gold medalist.

Hanifin right now is a very young #3 Dman with a crapload of potential (and a goot bet to reach that but still right now his value comes from his potential and not from what he already is).

This is not two equal players swapped for each other. Same as it wasn't with the RyJo deal. This is an older established player traded for a younger unproven player with higher potential that fills the need of each others organisation.

The basic concept of the deal is the same.



And yeah. Those discussions die right there once you mention MacKinnon. We are not trading our recent #1 pick who already is our current #1 C and has close to the same upside as your #3 D (whom again I am very high on but he still has some developing to do ) and is only 1.5 years older for him.


This wouldn't be the RyJo deal, it would be beyond stupid for the Avs.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This wouldn't be the RyJo deal, it would be beyond stupid for the Avs.

And yet you are suggesting that trading a 19 year old, potential franchise Defenseman, who is just 1+ seasons into his professional career (and has done nothing to suggest his high draft selection and potential wasn't warranted) for 2.5 years of a player 6 years older is smart? That's really the crux if the matter.

EDIT: I'm not disagreeing that the Avs woudn't trade MacKinnon for Hanifin, but it's clear that you don't want to see the Canes side of things on this.

 

[JoemAvs]

And yet you are suggesting that trading a 19 year old, potential franchise Defenseman, who is just 1+ seasons into his professional career (and has done nothing to suggest his high draft selection and potential wasn't warranted) for 2.5 years of a player 6 years older is smart?

You are trading a 19 year old kid with a lot of potential who currently is at best a #3 D for a 25 year old #1 C with 0 red flags and still plenty of term left (players don't usually get traded with more than 3-4 years left on their deals unless we are talking players on ELCs).

Duchene was also a #3 overall and so far hasn't really disappointed.

I love Hanifin but potential is only worth so much. Look at our own Erik Johnson and what he turned into. Pretty sure the Blues would have gladly traded him in hindsight after his rookie season for a guy like Duchene.


Hanifin is basically untradeable if you would only trade him for the equivalent value he would have if he would reach his potential.


That is not how trades work. Hanifin might be and probably is not available in a trade in general and that is fine.

But we all know that Carolina will have to make a huge trade for a forward sooner or later with all those Dman they have accumulated. Your attendance is even worse than the Avs one and you absolutely need a top tier forward in the near future to get anywhere.
Of course I see the Carolina side. But the truth is you are one of the few teams that can afford to lose a guy like Hanifin right now with Faulk, Slavin and the myriad of D-prospects you have accumulated over the years.

And make no mistake. If you want a guy like Duchene it will atleast cost you Faulk and probably Hanifin anyways regardless which team you ask.

The price for Duchene would be Hanifin (and a Canes fan early asked about what it would take to get him). If you are unwilling to do that the Avs will probably stay put or shop somewhere else.
Guys like Duchene become available only so often...

 

[GoldiFox]

You are trading a 19 year old kid with a lot of potential who currently is at best a #3 D for a 25 year old #1 C with 0 red flags and still plenty of term left (players don't usually get traded with more than 3-4 years left on their deals unless we are talking players on ELCs).

Duchene was also a #3 overall and so far hasn't really disappointed.

I love Hanifin but potential is only worth so much. Look at our own Erik Johnson and what he turned into. Pretty sure the Blues would have gladly traded him in hindsight after his rookie season for a guy like Duchene.


Hanifin is basically untradeable if you would only trade him for the equivalent value he would have if he would reach his potential.


That is not how trades work. Hanifin might be and probably is not available in a trade in general and that is fine.

But we all know that Carolina will have to make a huge trade for a forward sooner or later with all those Dman they have accumulated. Your attendance is even worse than the Avs one and you absolutely need a top tier forward in the near future to get anywhere.
Of course I see the Carolina side. But the truth is you are one of the few teams that can afford to lose a guy like Hanifin right now with Faulk, Slavin and the myriad of D-prospects you have accumulated over the years.

And make no mistake. If you want a guy like Duchene it will atleast cost you Faulk and probably Hanifin anyways regardless which team you ask.

The price for Duchene would be Hanifin (and a Canes fan early asked about what it would take to get him). If you are unwilling to do that the Avs will probably stay put or shop somewhere else.
Guys like Duchene become available only so often...

If Duchene was signed for 6-7 more years it might be a fit for the Canes. I guess since you state that there is no difference in value between someone signed 2 more seasons or 5+ more seasons that doesn't make sense to you, but for a team building for the future it is important.

As it stands, in 3 years the Canes would have nothing to show for this trade while the Avalanche would have a potential #1 D hitting his prime.

 

[JoemAvs]

If Duchene was signed for 6-7 more years it might be a fit for the Canes. I guess since you state that there is no difference in value between someone signed 2 more seasons or 5+ more seasons that doesn't make sense to you, but for a team building for the future it is important.

As it stands, in 3 years the Canes would have nothing to show for this trade while the Avalanche would have a potential #1 D hitting his prime.

I just don't see the huge problem with the term to be honest.
I mean we even got a very decent deal for ROR when everyone and their mother told us on hfboards that we would never get a guy like Zadorov just because of term (<1 year left) and behavior (he was clearly a flight risk who signed offersheets and wanted to get paid) of ROR. In the end we got him and more (and still probably lost the deal in the end but that is neither here nor there).

Duchene has 2.75 years left on his deal. Same as Doughty,Karlsson, OEL, Seguin, Couture, Wheeler, Kucherov, McDonagh, Simmonds and your very own Jeff Skinner.

Do you really think teams would worry about flight risk if those guys would be made available? Does Jeff Skinners value suffer because of his current contract status?
Really?


Tavares only has 1.75 years left and I bet that in the end if he were available, no one would give a damn about term. If you are not confident in your teams ability to keep a player who will be there for almost 3 years (how long do you believe your rebuild will take?), you might as well never trade for anyone and just keep stacking those picks. But I personally would have my concerns about the teamname at that point. Carolina might not be in it.

Of course term and longterm control is an issue and something to consider if you are trading a top tier piece like Hanifin but I honestly believe in this context it is way overblown.

Duchene is not a guy like ROR who I might also be worried about leaving. And even he immediately re-signed with a bottom feeder franchise 2 weeks in once they showed him the money.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You are trading a 19 year old kid with a lot of potential who currently is at best a #3 D for a 25 year old #1 C with 0 red flags and still plenty of term left (players don't usually get traded with more than 3-4 years left on their deals unless we are talking players on ELCs).

And unless it's to a contender, players who are 19 and have gobs of potential and the pedigree Hanifin does, usually don't get traded to a team for a player 6 years older. How is that different?

Duchene was also a #3 overall and so far hasn't really disappointed.

I love Hanifin but potential is only worth so much. Look at our own Erik Johnson and what he turned into. Pretty sure the Blues would have gladly traded him in hindsight after his rookie season for a guy like Duchene.

Again, you can't get it through your head. I'm not saying there is ANYTHING wrong with Duchene. I'm simply saying that trading a 19 year old, who has elite top pairing potential and has done nothing in his short NHL career to say he won't achieve that shouldn't get traded for a guy 6 years older who is 2.5 years from UFA. No more, no less.

Hanifin is basically untradeable if you would only trade him for the equivalent value he would have if he would reach his potential.

Fine, we aren't looking to trade Hanifin. There is zero need to trade him unless a similar aged player that has the POTENTIAL (ie...a 19-20 YO that hasn't reached it but looks good) or a guy slightly older who has reached it. Really not that complicated.

But we all know that Carolina will have to make a huge trade for a forward sooner or later with all those Dman they have accumulated. Your attendance is even worse than the Avs one and you absolutely need a top tier forward in the near future to get anywhere.

That's fine. Doesn't mean they need to make the trade you are suggesting. I could make the same statement about Colorado and forwards.

The price for Duchene would be Hanifin (and a Canes fan early asked about what it would take to get him). If you are unwilling to do that the Avs will probably stay put or shop somewhere else.
Guys like Duchene become available only so often...

If the price for Duchene is Hanifin, then the Canes will probably stay put or shop elsewhere. I'm fine with that. 19 YO, 6'3" 205lb, potential top pairing defensemen, who have the skills and skating ability of Hanifin don't become available very often.....

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Of course term and longterm control is an issue and something to consider if you are trading a top tier piece like Hanifin but I honestly believe in this context it is way overblown.

Of course you do, because it fits your argument. Coming from a team that has struggled to attract (and retain) UFAs, I can say that for us, it's not overblown. I've given you examples (Sekera and Cole) in just the past couple of years.

Anyway, I'm not trying, nor do I expect to change your opinion (nor will you change mine). I'm just explain why, as a Canes fan, that move is not as desirable as you are trying to make it. I think my points are reasonable, and backed up by some other Canes fans, even if you disagree with them.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Do you really think teams would worry about flight risk if those guys would be made available? Does Jeff Skinners value suffer because of his current contract status?
Really?

Depending on who he goes to and their situation, yes. If the proposal was Jeff Skinner for Mitch Marner, then yes, the Leafs fans would be very worried about Skinner's contract status. That's the point.