Proposal: CAR-PIT

[Ugene Magic]

The problem is you're dealing with Carolina, the cheapest of cheapskates.

There's nothing wrong with Karlsson, Dubas bought high, then shit the bed with the rest of the roster, and then complains about Karlsson like he was the issue and not the rest of the rejects he acquired/signed.

You want better results from Karlsson, ad better players to the roster, bub.

I'd rather keep Karlsson, especially if you are talking 50% retention and paying the first bonus. That right there is worth a 1st alone. Now add in Karlsson's intangibles worth being a 53 point player on a bottom feeder with little to no depth.

The Pens were a 1-line team. Rakell, Crosby, Rust

 

[DesertPenguin]

Not worthwhile at that price, even if we could make it work... don't want to pair him with Slavin, so it would be literally to replace Ghost or Walker.

I can't think of a better partner for Karlsson than Slavin. It would be poetry.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I mean, Carolina pretty obviously needs a guy like Karlsson? They don't have any offensive drivers from their defense at this point. None of Slavin, Chatfield, Walker or Gostisbehere are good 5v5 producer or 5v5 offensive drivers. Orlov and Burns were their best producers, but both are UFAs and neither had good offensive driving results.

Karlsson obviously has his issues, but he's one of the best offensive producers and offensive drivers among defensemen at 5v5. Considering Carolina couldn't score at 5v5 for shit in these playoffs and Carolina is losing both of their 2 best offensive producers from their defense, there seems to be a pretty obvious fit there.

That’s one consideration. Not dismissing it.

The other is that Carolina will be reliant on the Slavin pair to take on the toughest matchups on a nightly basis next year. Playing Top 4 minutes is enough to ask of a rookie. When Carolina was cycling through Hamilton/DeAngelo/Burns, prime Pesce was underneath to take pressure off. He’s gone.

 

[DesertPenguin]

The problem is you're dealing with Carolina, the cheapest of cheapskates.

That's the beauty here. EK is owed a 5m signing bonus on July 1st. Pens would hold him till then and pay that. After that, in real dollars, he's going to cost Carolina 4m this year and 7.5m next year, minus what the Pens retain on top of that. It's a great real money contract for a team that doesn't like to spend all the way to the cap.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That’s one consideration. Not dismissing it.

The other is that Carolina will be reliant on the Slavin pair to take on the toughest matchups on a nightly basis next year. Playing Top 4 minutes is enough to ask of a rookie. When Carolina was cycling through Hamilton/DeAngelo/Burns, prime Pesce was underneath to take pressure off. He’s gone.

Karlsson is not good defensively but he's been used against top competition for basically his entire career. I don't think Slavin-Karlsson would have any problems running as a pair even against top competition.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Can’t think of a better stylistic fit for EK65 tbh. Think Carolina fans are overthinking it.

 

[Chrispy]

Tbh I wonder if you could make a move with Karlsson that involves them taking back Kotkaniemi to get Morrow back. I don't think Carolina would ever consider Morrow for Karlsson straight up, but would they consider it if it also includes them getting out of Kotkaniemi's deal?

Something like Gostisbehere, Kotkaniemi and Morrow for Karlsson with less retention as the basis. That's about $8 million out for Carolina, so the Penguins could retain less on Karlsson's deal to have it an even cap swap. Morrow is a better individual piece than Karlsson would ever bring back on his own. If Carolina would rather keep Gostisbehere, I wouldn't put up a fight there either.

If Kotkaniemi has negative value in the deal, then Carolina just won't put him in the deal. They can buy him out for $850K a year, or they will find someone who wants to try him for a year. Kotkaniemi could also be bought out for $850K a year next summer, so anyone who wants to try him could still do that buyout if they wanted.

If you are adding Kotkaniemi as a way to increase the prospect return for Pittsburgh? Don't.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If Kotkaniemi has negative value in the deal, then Carolina just won't put him in the deal. They can buy him out for $850K a year, or they will find someone who wants to try him for a year. Kotkaniemi could also be bought out for $850K a year next summer, so anyone who wants to try him could still do that buyout if they wanted.

If you are adding Kotkaniemi as a way to increase the prospect return for Pittsburgh? Don't.

I don't know why you're acting like buying out Kotkaniemi for $8.5 million is not negative value.

The Canes got paid a 1st to take on Marleau's buyout and pay him $6 million.

 

[Chan790]

I can't think of a better partner for Karlsson than Slavin. It would be poetry.

Prefer to get back to using Slavin to anchor an elite shutdown pair and use the other pairs for more two-way play.

 

[Chrispy]

I don't know why you're acting like buying out Kotkaniemi for $8.5 million is not negative value.

The Canes got paid a 1st to take on Marleau's buyout and pay him $6 million.

They had to pay $6M on July 1 to buy out Marleau.

Kotkaniemi's buyout is $850K a year. Much easier to budget into the system and fit at less than 1% of the cap. That's carrying 2 healthy extras instead of 3.

 

[Empoleon8771]

They had to pay $6M on July 1 to buy out Marleau.

Kotkaniemi's buyout is $850K a year. Much easier to budget into the system and fit at less than 1% of the cap. That's carrying 2 healthy extras instead of 3.

It's still $8.5 million in real money paid out to Kotkaniemi.

 

[Jared Grayden]

The problem is you're dealing with Carolina, the cheapest of cheapskates.

There's nothing wrong with Karlsson, Dubas bought high, then shit the bed with the rest of the roster, and then complains about Karlsson like he was the issue and not the rest of the rejects he acquired/signed.

You want better results from Karlsson, ad better players to the roster, bub.

I'd rather keep Karlsson, especially if you are talking 50% retention and paying the first bonus. That right there is worth a 1st alone. Now add in Karlsson's intangibles worth being a 53 point player on a bottom feeder with little to no depth.

The Pens were a 1-line team. Rakell, Crosby, Rust

I suspect they want a Burns 2.0 type deal in which case they can drop dead.

 

[Chrispy]

It's still $8.5 million in real money paid out to Kotkaniemi.

Instead of $24M.

I think most owners in the league would pay $850K to get back $4M in cap space.

I think they can unload Kotkaniemi for little or no return. I don't think they would need to add a sweetener, and if they get that response around the league I think they just buy him out first.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Instead of $24M.

I think most owners in the league would pay $850K to get back $4M in cap space.

I think they can unload Kotkaniemi for little or no return. I don't think they would need to add a sweetener, and if they get that response around the league I think they just buy him out first.

For another team, it's $8.5 million or nothing because they don't have to trade for Kotkaniemi.

I just don't think "you can buy him out for a low cap hit" is really an argument for him not having negative value. Even though the cap hit is manageable, it's still $8.5 million in real money.

 

[Chrispy]

For another team, it's $8.5 million or nothing because they don't have to trade for Kotkaniemi.

I just don't think "you can buy him out for a low cap hit" is really an argument for him not having negative value. Even though the cap hit is manageable, it's still $8.5 million in real money.

If another team wants to take a chance on Kotkaniemi, they can for little to no return. If they don't, then Carolina can buy him out.

NHL owners are paying between $70.6M and $95.5M just in payroll. Within that, this would be $850K. Yes, it's $850K a year for a long time, but at the level the salary cap is at it's a minimal part of the payroll.

 

[chethejet]

Dubas doesn't do buyouts. I wanted Morrow in the Jake trade but now with Letang back for maybe 1 or 2 more years and Brunicke, Timmins, St Ivany who really came on when healthy the end of last year and One of the younger RD's drafted last year, Pens need to get a RW in the deal or the draft. I would rather do the Karlsson and Rust to Buffalo for Byram, Helenius and Buffalo's number 1.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

The canes need to add an NHL 2C and NHL 3C

They have a 1C, then 2 4Cs in Staal and Kotka (maybe a 3rd line winger).

I think they use Roslovic as a C as well but he's a good top 9 winger who can play C for stretches.

They should trade for a 2C and then add a EK65 type asset at retained deal

This is a bad overview of what the Canes have and what the Canes need.

Staal and Kotkaniemi are absolutely good as 3C caliber and Roslovic is a UFA so he might not even be back.

We need a 2C and a RHD to play on the first pair with Slavin.

Slavin - XXX
Nikishin - Chatfield
Ghost - Walker
Morrow

This is completely fine moving forward and if Morrow needs to be traded for a big piece somewhere then so be it.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

That's the beauty here. EK is owed a 5m signing bonus on July 1st. Pens would hold him till then and pay that. After that, in real dollars, he's going to cost Carolina 4m this year and 7.5m next year, minus what the Pens retain on top of that. It's a great real money contract for a team that doesn't like to spend all the way to the cap.

Canes have spent to the cap for like the past 4 or 5 years. That was the old regime who didn't spend money. Dundon absolutely will open the wallet but wants it spent as wisely as possible and to stretch every last dollar.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Canes have spent to the cap for like the past 4 or 5 years. That was the old regime who didn't spend money. Dundon absolutely will open the wallet but wants it spent as wisely as possible and to stretch every last dollar.

So like I said, this is a situation where the actual dollars are a bargain are less than the cap hit incurred. Sounds like that's still important.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I don't know why you're acting like buying out Kotkaniemi for $8.5 million is not negative value.

The Canes got paid a 1st to take on Marleau's buyout and pay him $6 million.

Not that it makes a ton of difference but the total buyout amount is $7.2m over 10 years and the average cap hit is $808k. 7 years it is $841k and 3 years it is 461k.

https://puckpedia.com/player/jesperi-kotkaniemi/buyout?s=2025-2026

 

[DesertPenguin]

This is a bad overview of what the Canes have and what the Canes need.

Staal and Kotkaniemi are absolutely good as 3C caliber and Roslovic is a UFA so he might not even be back.

We need a 2C and a RHD to play on the first pair with Slavin.

Slavin - XXX
Nikishin - Chatfield
Ghost - Walker
Morrow

This is completely fine moving forward and if Morrow needs to be traded for a big piece somewhere then so be it.

I don't hate the idea of Morrow for Karlsson as the main pieces, but the Pens have way bigger needs on the left side than the right. Ironic since that should be easier to fill than RHD. Even when sending out Karlsson you have Letang - Timmins - St Ivany with Brunicke expected to push i to the lineup this season or next. There's organizational depth behind those as well.

Big brain idea: three way trade with CAR getting Karlsson, Buffalo getting Morrow + and PIT getting Byram? Secondary pieces added to balance.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

So like I said, this is a situation where the actual dollars are a bargain are less than the cap hit incurred. Sounds like that's still important.

Sure, I agree the contract can definitely be advantageous but the retention needs to be there (or balancing out by sending a contract back) as the lowering of the cap hit is important, not just the real dollars. In the old days it was only real dollars that matter, that's not the case anymore.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I don't hate the idea of Morrow for Karlsson as the main pieces, but the Pens have way bigger needs on the left side than the right. Ironic since that should be easier to fill than RHD. Even when sending out Karlsson you have Letang - Timmins - St Ivany with Brunicke expected to push i to the lineup this season or next. There's organizational depth behind those as well.

Big brain idea: three way trade with CAR getting Karlsson, Buffalo getting Morrow + and PIT getting Byram? Secondary pieces added to balance.

Ya - would have to ask Buf fans and I think that + from Carolina would need to be decent since they need retention on the Karlsson contract (not full necessarily) but the framework looks OK to me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm really surprised I'm reading any Canes fans that are okay with moving Morrow for Karlsson. I don't think it's about Morrow having a bad year, I'm just surprised that a guy who was completely untouchable for Guentzel could be available for Karlsson. I just have a tough time believing the Canes would do that.

IMO, there are just too many factors at play against his value here:

1. Full NMC, meaning he can pick his location.
2. High AAV which requires the Penguins to retain at least $3 million to get his deal to be easier to swallow.
3. Very niche skillset that some teams would completely steer clear of if they don't specifically need his talent.

I think Kessel is the same exact situation, he always brought back less than what fans of his team were thinking he'd bring back. Leafs fans thought that Kessel would bring back one of Maatta, Pouliot or Murray, but he only got Kapanen. Penguins fans thought that Kessel would bring back an unprotected Coyotes 1st, but he only got POJ.

Maybe I'm wrong and overrating Morrow, but I'd be shocked if the Canes did him for Karlsson.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

FYI, Dundon spent $21.32 mil on SBs for non-ELC players last Summer.