The Caps have been treading water since 2019. Last year, the made the playoffs but didn't really deserve to be there. This year, they took a huge step forward. They kicked ass in the RS, especially early and the won a playoff round. (In retrospect, I think the chase f***ed them up more than I realized. Early on in the season, it was there but it was on parallel track with winning games and being a great team. But as it got closer, it took over, and I think once it happened, they were emotionally spent.)
Carolina on the other hand has made it to the later rounds for several years. So yeah, despite what I've thought at times in this series, they are a more mature playoff team than the Caps right now. It's not over, but the weaknesses in our game have shown through. I think our game style, when at its peak, is better than theirs, but we haven't been able to sustain it sufficiently and obviously have struggled to score.
That said, I don't think the Canes are in the same tier as EDM/DAL/FLA. So, they may not get farther than they have to this point with this roster.
Ultimately if the Caps lose this series, which looks likely, they still made meaningful progress this season. The need for more high-end offensive talent is evident. So, our FO should be making appropriate decisions with prospects/FA/etc. But also, who knew that Fever was our MVP? His absence has totally disrupted their team D structure and thrown the D corps' TOI distributions into chaos. That will need to be addressed with some additional depth.