Clay Stevenson could challenge right now if he was given the opportunity. He's got NHL talent and compete. I'm not suggesting he's a bonafide #1 but he's got the size, athleticism and technique to succeed at the NHL level as a 1b or full time backup. In fact he's very similar to Logan Thompson and Phoenix Copley. Underscouted, late bloomer with a ton of size and raw ability that have been shaped in our system. Our scouting staff continually hits on UDFA goalies, he fits the mold.
Disclaimer: I don't want to hear about how he's sharing time with Shepherd and can't beat him out or that he's having a bad year. Hershey isn't playing very well defensively this year and both goaltenders numbers are atrocious. The AHL is also notorious for older, sometimes undersized battlers to be highly successful at that level. I'll use our own beloved Holtby as an example, he never fully took the #1 job from Dany Sabourin and was never the bonafide #1 in Hershey before becoming a legitimate NHL star goaltender. It's actually pretty common that NHL goalies split time with vets at the AHL level before making the jump.
Not to be a Clay hater but he just doesn't strike me as Logan Thompson, and I say that as someone who was pretty high on Clay at this time last year.
Clay turned pro in 22-23, where he put up .916 in 36 ECHL games. He was a bit better than Tyler Wall, who he timeshared with (32 games played) with .912. Tyler Wall is very much not an NHL player, so you would've hoped to see more separation.
He backed up that solid start with 36 games played last year, in a timeshare with Shepard, with .922, below Shepard at .929. The problem is that he has absolutely cratered this year, with .883. Bad defense or not, he has cratered even harder than Shepard (.894).. a 39% drop compared to a 35% drop.
Logan has put up pretty much stellar numbers across the board, made the NHL, and ran with the opportunity so I'll cut this comparison short (.929 ECHL/.943 AHL/.926 AHL and then NHL after that for full seasons).
Copley is a bit more interesting as while he played a smattering of NHL games he did not get his first major chance until 18-19, and that came after a lackluster 17-18 where he put up .896 on the worst Bears team of the decade (.454 points percentage.. you have to go all the way back to 92-93 to find a worse points percentage). And while that was not a great number, it was better than what a very young Vitek Vanecek put up (.888). VV thankfully bounced back as he got older, putting up much better numbers than Samsonov in 18-19.
So, maybe Clay can still have a Pheonix-like story, but it's really not surprising when you deep dive the numbers why they aren't counting on him. He's had one good year, one medium year (the ECHL year), and one bad year. That doesn't scream future NHLer to me. If he bounces back with a strong 25-26, maybe he can play his way into an extension and some NHL games. But that's a big IF for a guy with one of the lowest save percentages in the AHL right now.