Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[CapitalsCupReality]

Our big game hunting season is next offseason. Presumably Ovie retires or signs a small one year deal, Carlson retires or takes a cut, cap jumps 8m. Suddenly we have a lot of space.

I can’t even ponder that…..I’d be shocked if they go to the open market and try to land a superstar level guy.

 

[caps4cup]

One is a Playoff beast, the another is a Playoff ghost. Who is going to get paid more?

Going by this logic you might want to start deducting some points off of Marner too. The guy has played his entire career in the same PP unit as Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly. He has also been the 3rd best forward on that team for a long time.

Call me crazy but i'd rather take the guy who hasn't been below PPG in his Playoff career since his rookie season, instead of the guy whose own fans want him traded after every single Playoff run they've had. It's not like he's damaged goods or anything but it's ridiculous that you point out he's just as good offensively but Rantanen has twice the point totals in the Playoffs. He may have benefit from playing with MacKinnon but like mentioned, Marner does get his fair share of ice with Matthews and Nylander especially in the Playoffs where they load up late and his numbers are still brutal.

Rantanen is going to get paid more. Comfortably more, and it's because of the first sentence. Playoff beast vs. Playoff ghost. I'm sure Marner will get a huge contract from somewhere too because there are plenty of teams and especially owners who just want their team to get into the Playoffs and start building from there. They can afford to pay big on Marner because he can certainly get you there, just likely not further.

Sure he’s a playoff beast but his GF% without Mackinnon in the playoffs the last 3 seasons is 43.5% (59.5% with him) and that’s the whole point. The guy has just not proven to be a 14mil player without Mackinnon, not even close. That playoff beast narrative isn’t there if he isn’t riding shotgun with the 2nd best forward in the league.

Marner for sure benefits from Matthews but not even close to the same extent (his GF% is actually higher without Matthews the last 3 seasons but his xGF% does drop roughly 7%). He’s also one of the best 2 way wingers in the NHL, where Rantanen isn’t contributing much at all defensively.

Marner also has never been out produced by Nylander on a points per game basis and has a higher points per game in the playoffs than both Matthews and Nylander. So not sure where you’re getting the idea he’s worse than Nylander and is the playoff underperformer of that group.

 

[qc14]

Here's one roster with Marner that leaves you with 60k in cap space. It requires sending out TvR and Milano while also running a 20-man roster. Not ideal, but once again possible and not an option I necessarily hate

Spoiler: Roster

A more balanced approach might be grabbing someone like Ehlers. This also leaves you with ~$160k in space but lets you keep TvR and Milano and run a 22 man roster. The not-quite-superstar tier of UFA in Ehlers does scare me though.

Spoiler: Roster

Finally, the trade option. I went with Terry just because we've been talking about him specifically, but this gives you the ability to also go out and get another 3rd liner in UFA. This has $560k in space remaining too so if you can shave a little off of each contract you'd be able to bring back a McIlrath on a vet min too for the 23rd spot.

Spoiler: Roster

There are different guys available for each of the three "paths" -- don't read too much into why I went with Marner instead of Rantanen, the line combos, etc.. Just wanted to give an overview of what the cap actually looks like for them.

TLDR: The Chychrun, LT, Lindgren, Dowd extensions eat into most of the cap increase and we have already spent almost all of the Backstrom and Oshie money this season. However, Mangiapane + Eller + Raddysh + Kuzy retention + Milano + TvR is a lot more room than you think and they have the ability to play for a big name if they want. You could get even more flexibility if you went cheaper at the Dowd and Lindgren spots but I wouldn't do that and I assume the team won't as well.

EDIT:
Wanted to give some context with what a "run it back/do nothing" roster looks like. $8.1M (!!!) in cap space.

Spoiler: Roster

 

[MW6]

With the cap expected to rise so much the next two years (7,5M and then ~9M) I really doubt teams will have any problems re-signing their top UFA’s the summer when Ovie and Carlson’s contracts are up. So even though the offseason ‘26 is where a lot of contracts comes off the books, I think they should be proactive and go big this summer and try to work through it with some cheaper lesser pieces.

So brace yourselves

Trade Deadline
Lapierre, Alexeyev + 1st for McTavish + Leason
Leonard signed and integrated
Chychrun extended 8x8M

Offseason 25/26:
Marner 8x13 (pick traded for his rights)
Bridge deal for McTavish 1x3M
TVR and Milano traded for a pick/picks
Dowd 800k + 1M bonus (35+)
Leason 3x1M
V. Soderstrom (2019 11th OA)
Stevenson backup G
Frank, Iorio extras (Let Miro cook some in HB)
Run 22 players to bank some cap space for TDL

93,6M$

Next trade deadline (2026): “All in”
McMichael, Chesley + 1st for Brady Tkachuck
Sandin + Cristall + 3rd for Rasmus Anderson (w retention + extension 6x9M)
Cole Hutson is signed

Offseason 26/27:
Carlson 2x5M
Rebuild complete (with +7M in cap space)
Could go for more veteran players on the 4th line but this will give the Caps 2 lines where all players are at least 6’4

 

[895]

So basically they've decided Eller was a bust. Better than Laps but not good enough to be 3C on a contender.

 

[Silky mitts]

Maybe not just about Eller but also shielding Strome in the playoffs matchupwise

 

[swansonsays]

With the cap expected to rise so much the next two years (7,5M and then ~9M) I really doubt teams will have any problems re-signing their top UFA’s the summer when Ovie and Carlson’s contracts are up. So even though the offseason ‘26 is where a lot of contracts comes off the books, I think they should be proactive and go big this summer and try to work through it with some cheaper lesser pieces.

So brace yourselves

Trade Deadline
Lapierre, Alexeyev + 1st for McTavish + Leason
Leonard signed and integrated
Chychrun extended 8x8M

Offseason 25/26:
Marner 8x13 (pick traded for his rights)
Bridge deal for McTavish 1x3M
TVR and Milano traded for a pick/picks
Dowd 800k + 1M bonus (35+)
Leason 3x1M
V. Soderstrom (2019 11th OA)
Stevenson backup G
Frank, Iorio extras (Let Miro cook some in HB)
Run 22 players to bank some cap space for TDL

View attachment 977264
93,6M$

Next trade deadline (2026): “All in”
McMichael, Chesley + 1st for Brady Tkachuck
Sandin + Cristall + 3rd for Rasmus Anderson (w retention + extension 6x9M)
Cole Hutson is signed

Offseason 26/27:
Carlson 2x5M
Rebuild complete (with +7M in cap space)
Could go for more veteran players on the 4th line but this will give the Caps 2 lines where all players are at least 6’4

View attachment 977027

The way he's played this year, there is no way they run Ovie's possible last season with Stevenson as the back up. If you're going for it, then the back up next season isn't currently in Hershey. They've both regressed this season, or last year's numbers were a product of Hershey's defense.

 

[um]

The way he's played this year, there is no way they run Ovie's possible last season with Stevenson as the back up. If you're going for it, then the back up next season isn't currently in Hershey. They've both regressed this season, or last year's numbers were a product of Hershey's defense.

You can easily acquire back up goalies, even in season.

Colorado added 2 goalies!

 

[swansonsays]

You can easily acquire back up goalies, even in season.

Colorado added 2 goalies!

Right, the post was using Stevenson next year, though, which is don't think is a great idea.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

You can easily acquire back up goalies, even in season.

Colorado added 2 goalies!

Grubby was just on waivers. I think we could get him back pretty cheap maybe league min.
Getting the band back together

NVM on Grubby https://puckpedia.com/player/philipp-grubauer

He would have to be a buy out 1st.

Also im not very impressed the names Sammi has be dropping we are looking at the deadline.

 

[Kolzilla]

So basically they've decided Eller was a bust. Better than Laps but not good enough to be 3C on a contender.

I suggested this a few days ago...not met with much glee...

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I suggested this a few days ago...not met with much glee...

https://puckpedia.com/player/scott-laughton

Hes does not look like much of an upgrade over Eller. Atleast hes quite pretty cheap at 3 million and 1 year left. I wouldnt trade for him.

Side note its pretty cool puckpedia lists what stick the player uses. Something I never knew I liked knowing lol

 

[Jags]

So basically they've decided Eller was a bust. Better than Laps but not good enough to be 3C on a contender.

I think Eller was exactly what they thought he'd be, but not what they hoped. There's no "bust" in that. He shored up that line, erased Lappy's deficiencies, but couldn't elevate the line over Dowd's.

Wanting the 3rd line to play 3rd line minutes makes sense. Getting a center to do that and improve their versatility doesn't have to cost them Eller, and likely won't. Eller can contribute to a contender. He's just not the guy to anchor a versatile 3rd line.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I useto hate this guy. He was a head hunter when he played for the Pens.

 

[Devil Dancer]

I can’t even ponder that…..I’d be shocked if they go to the open market and try to land a superstar level guy.

Who's the last guy they got that way?

Robert Lang?

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I useto hate this guy. He was a head hunter when he played for the Pens.

I tend to remember him and Bondra getting into it often.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

So basically they've decided Eller was a bust. Better than Laps but not good enough to be 3C on a contender.

laughton sucks this would be a joke of a trade

 

[Holtbyisms]

Good thing this board isn't running the team or we'd be prospectless and tapped out for a decade. We ain't trading for anything big name, why would we? We're in first place in the metro by a mile for most of the season. Were a couple points out of first in the NHL. Sometimes sitting on your hands is more valuable than a big name acquisition. Any speculation they're looking to upgrade 3C again after having already done it this season is just that, purely speculation based on early season rumors. They're not bumping Eller, he's beloved by the core. Hold on to your asses cause all you're getting is a random 4th liner for depth and a Alexeyev upgrade for security.

 

[Ridley Simon]

So basically they've decided Eller was a bust. Better than Laps but not good enough to be 3C on a contender.

Yeah. Do not need as an adder. We have enough bottom 6 players.

We need a top 6, not another 4th liner

 

[Ridley Simon]

Good thing this board isn't running the team or we'd be prospectless and tapped out for a decade. We ain't trading for anything big name, why would we? We're in first place in the metro by a mile for most of the season. We’re a couple points out of first in the NHL. Sometimes sitting on your hands is more valuable than a big name acquisition. Any speculation they're looking to upgrade 3C again after having already done it this season is just that, purely speculation based on early season rumors. They're not bumping Eller, he's beloved by the core. Hold on to your asses cause all you're getting is a random 4th liner for depth and a Alexeyev upgrade for security.

I wouldn’t be so sure. Like at all.

I can easily see a top 6F. We will see