Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[qc14]

With Backstrom and Oshie coming off the books does it make sense to throw a bunch of money at one of the top UFAs like Rantanen or Marner?

I would do it but I also understand why you wouldn't

 

[trick9]

With Backstrom and Oshie coming off the books does it make sense to throw a bunch of money at one of the top UFAs like Rantanen or Marner?

I'd guess they would be heavily after Rantanen if he makes it to open market. The cap space is there and he checks all the boxes Caps value highly in a winger.

Who knows where he'll actually want to play though. There'll be 32 teams after him.

 

[Lou Sassole]

Or maybe management is dumb -- they didn't choose Carlson either.

Seriously, Caps fans referring to someone as "not a winner" based on international team selection is doubly stupid.

He may or may not be a winner, but there's no evidence of the latter besides the narrative that he's not a winner. His performance in big games has been great.

Regardless of his skill level, he's soft as baby shit and has a low compete level. You don't generally win in the playoffs with a lot of those guys on the roster. Maybe we could insulate his deficiencies playing him with PLD/Protas/Wilson types, maybe not, but it seems pretty risky at this point. I'd love for him to figure it out, because his skill level is sublime, but he could be Kuzy level good or bad.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I'd guess they would be heavily after Rantanen if he makes it to open market. The cap space is there and he checks all the boxes Caps value highly in a winger.

Who knows where he'll actually want to play though. There'll be 32 teams after him.

There won’t be 32 teams with 13 million in cap space to sign him. There will probably be around 7-10 teams to compete with and some of them will be trying to trade for his rights to give him the 8th year. Caps have two seconds this year so they could also be in the mix for his rights

 

[Kazer]

Marchand makes so much sense to me.

It pushes McMichael to the third line instead of Protas or Wilson who should stay in the top 6. Marchand also has the ability to play on a shutdown line with Dubois, while being an offensive option as well.

Ovie-Strome-Protas
Marchand-Dubois-Wilson (that's a lot of hate )
McMichael/Mangi-Eller/McMichael-Mangi/Leonard
Duhaime-Dowd-Raddysh/Mangi

There's a lot of options if you use McMichael at 3C.

I just don't see Boston trading Marchand (period). Maybe if they were completely out of it, but that seems incredibly unlikely with how condensed the East is. They're currently 2 points out of a playoff spot (Note: Ottawa has a game in hand but even if they win they're only 4 back).

Troy Terry would be a stellar addition if we can swing it, and I would happily do the package proposed by Beags.

 

[Misery74]

Troy Terry is under contract until 2030. As far as I know, there is no PLD situation. For $7m.

Little chance Terry goes anywhere, and we shouldn’t be adding $7m wings right now, unless the are a UFA.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Ethan Bear, you are a Duck!

Don't get excited everyone, probably just Bear for Leason. Haha!!

 

[Ridley Simon]

Marchand makes so much sense to me.

It pushes McMichael to the third line instead of Protas or Wilson who should stay in the top 6. Marchand also has the ability to play on a shutdown line with Dubois, while being an offensive option as well.

Ovie-Strome-Protas
Marchand-Dubois-Wilson (that's a lot of hate )
McMichael/Mangi-Eller/McMichael-Mangi/Leonard
Duhaime-Dowd-Raddysh/Mangi

There's a lot of options if you use McMichael at 3C.

I’d be really surprised if the Bruins sent him anywhere. Like at all.

Unless they talk about it, and he is OK w it

They did sent Ray Bourque out, after all

 

[Ridley Simon]

With Backstrom and Oshie coming off the books does it make sense to throw a bunch of money at one of the top UFAs like Rantanen or Marner?

No. People seem to forget that we have mostly *already filled* this cap slots. They are only 3.6m away from the cap, and discounts Backstrom, Oshie AND Milano.

They will have some money because: cap raise, Mangie contract, JC6’s contract and a few lower levels.

JC6 — assuming they can coral him — will take up most of their space. And also Chucky. Those 2 alone will take up at least 65-70% of their space

 

[Kazer]

No. People seem to forget that we have mostly *already filled* this cap slots. They are only 3.6m away from the cap, and discounts Backstrom, Oshie AND Milano.

They will have some money because: cap raise, Mangie contract, JC6’s contract and a few lower levels.

JC6 — assuming they can coral him — will take up most of their space. And also Chucky. Those 2 alone will take up at least 65-70% of their space

This is making a lot of assumptions but if you fill out a logical roster with one kid making it (one of Leonard/Miro/Cristall), cheap 4RW, and moderate replacements at 3C and 4C (I used 4m for 3C and 2m for 4C) and re-signed Charlie at 3 mil flat, that leaves the Caps with 13 F, 6 D, and 2 G with 14.5 mil in cap space.

If the Caps re-sign Chychrun at 8mil, they have 6.5 in cap space left with 13 F, 7 D, and 2 G, but that's not enough to bring in a Marner/Rantanen.

If the Caps don't re-sign Chychrun and go cheap with the 6/7 D spots, then they have about 13.5 mil to play with (which might be enough for a Rantanen/Marner but with little room to spare and no Chychrun).

Tl;dr - Ridley is right. We have space but not as much as you might think (especially if we re-sign Chychrun). If anyone wants to play around with my assumptions, I used PuckGM.

 

[Ridley Simon]

This is making a lot of assumptions but if you fill out a logical roster with one kid making it (one of Leonard/Miro/Cristall), cheap 4RW, and moderate replacements at 3C and 4C (I used 4m for 3C and 2m for 4C) and re-signed Charlie at 3 mil flat, that leaves the Caps with 13 F, 6 D, and 2 G with 14.5 mil in cap space.

If the Caps re-sign Chychrun at 8mil, they have 6.5 in cap space left with 13 F, 7 D, and 2 G, but that's not enough to bring in a Marner/Rantanen.

If the Caps don't re-sign Chychrun and go cheap with the 6/7 D spots, then they have about 13.5 mil to play with (which might be enough for a Rantanen/Marner but with little room to spare and no Chychrun).

Tl;dr - Ridley is right. We have space but not as much as you might think (especially if we re-sign Chychrun). If anyone wants to play around with my assumptions, I used PuckGM.

Nail squarely on head. BAM!

Thompsons contract is getting absorbed. That’s a hit. JC6 @ 8m is a thing. Chucky @ 3m is as well. Both of those could be a tad low (500k, each).

Why about Dowd? We don’t want him back? Why not? 2-2.5m is fair “ish”.

Lose Eller. But who plays 3c? Take back that 4m for a 3C and add the 5m (if resigning all of 6, 26, 79 at 500k over @Kazer’s $$$).

A 9m player. Somewhere. With 3C still open.

It’s decent space. But Not 13-14m space

 

[um]

This is making a lot of assumptions but if you fill out a logical roster with one kid making it (one of Leonard/Miro/Cristall), cheap 4RW, and moderate replacements at 3C and 4C (I used 4m for 3C and 2m for 4C) and re-signed Charlie at 3 mil flat, that leaves the Caps with 13 F, 6 D, and 2 G with 14.5 mil in cap space.

If the Caps re-sign Chychrun at 8mil, they have 6.5 in cap space left with 13 F, 7 D, and 2 G, but that's not enough to bring in a Marner/Rantanen.

If the Caps don't re-sign Chychrun and go cheap with the 6/7 D spots, then they have about 13.5 mil to play with (which might be enough for a Rantanen/Marner but with little room to spare and no Chychrun).

Tl;dr - Ridley is right. We have space but not as much as you might think (especially if we re-sign Chychrun). If anyone wants to play around with my assumptions, I used PuckGM.

I'd much rather give 3C to one of McMichael or Lapierre. I don't want to blow UFA money on depth when we have a pipeline with Leonard, Lappy, Miro and Cristall that close to NHL level. If they're not ready then we can address it during the season. Hell, we did it with Eller this year.

Charlie at 3 isn't bad, but he's likely leaving and making more elsewhere. I'd rather get a standard backup like we did with Lindgren two years ago.

That's an extra 5-6 Million in cap space right there.

Elite talent should be a bigger priority than 3Cs and 2Gs. It's the biggest hole we have on our team, especially once Ovie is gone.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Marner at 14m is dogs balls, I am sorry. He’s not “it”.

Rantanen?

He makes me pause. But what about the McKinnon factor for him??

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Marner at 14m is dogs balls, I am sorry. He’s not “it”.

Rantanen?

He makes me pause. But what about the McKinnon factor for him??

Necas looks all world playing on that Avs line

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

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Dont think that link worked. Its Orlovs IG story at the beach with Ovie. I guess thats the mystery NHL player he was "training" with

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

troy terry YOU are a washington capital.

lapierre + 1st + whatever (daring today i know)

Does Terry have term? Because no way in hell do you give that up for a dude without term.

I'd guess they would be heavily after Rantanen if he makes it to open market. The cap space is there and he checks all the boxes Caps value highly in a winger.

Who knows where he'll actually want to play though. There'll be 32 teams after him.

He is from Finland so it will never happen. Caps seem to hate Finnish players.

 

[caps4cup]

Marner at 14m is dogs balls, I am sorry. He’s not “it”.

Rantanen?

He makes me pause. But what about the McKinnon factor for him??

Rantanen’s numbers away from Mackinnon are scary and what he’s done in Carolina so far isn’t helping things. Marner is just as good offensively and a borderline elite defensive forward as well. He’s also a little bit younger.

Rantanen’s GF% with Mackinnon the last 3 seasons is 60%. Without him it’s 43% (Mackinnon is 61% without Rantanen). His xGF% with Mackinnon in that timeframe is 55% and 42% without him (Mackinnon is 54.50% without him). Unless he goes on a tear in Carolina, there’s no way he should get more money than Marner. He’s obviously very skilled but hard to get past his numbers without Mackinnon (while Mackinnon’s numbers are basically the same without him).

 

[Ridley Simon]

Rantanen’s numbers away from Mackinnon are scary and what he’s done in Carolina so far isn’t helping things. Marner is just as good offensively and a borderline elite defensive forward as well. He’s also a little bit younger.

Rantanen’s GF% with Mackinnon the last 3 seasons is 60%. Without him it’s 43% (Mackinnon is 61% without Rantanen). His xGF% with Mackinnon in that timeframe is 55% and 42% without him (Mackinnon is 54.50% without him). Unless he goes on a tear in Carolina, there’s no way he should get more money than Marner.

Ok cool. So we don’t want either guy at 14m!

Sold!

 

[Silky mitts]

If Chychrun doesn’t sign the next 2 leading scorers among defensemen this year are Ekblad and Provorov which are unlikely Caps, the 4th guy is Orlov

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

If Chychrun doesn’t sign the next 2 leading scorers among defensemen this year are Ekblad and Provorov which are unlikely Caps, the 4th guy is Orlov

There has been talk that Orlov may go back to play with Kuzy.

 

[um]

Marner at 14m is dogs balls, I am sorry. He’s not “it”.

Rantanen?

He makes me pause. But what about the McKinnon factor for him??

Rantanen is way too one dimensional for me to spend that much.

He's more of a Nylander or Kessel type player to me.

 

[trick9]

Rantanen’s numbers away from Mackinnon are scary and what he’s done in Carolina so far isn’t helping things. Marner is just as good offensively and a borderline elite defensive forward as well. He’s also a little bit younger.

Rantanen’s GF% with Mackinnon the last 3 seasons is 60%. Without him it’s 43% (Mackinnon is 61% without Rantanen). His xGF% with Mackinnon in that timeframe is 55% and 42% without him (Mackinnon is 54.50% without him). Unless he goes on a tear in Carolina, there’s no way he should get more money than Marner. He’s obviously very skilled but hard to get past his numbers without Mackinnon (while Mackinnon’s numbers are basically the same without him).

One is a Playoff beast, the another is a Playoff ghost. Who is going to get paid more?

Going by this logic you might want to start deducting some points off of Marner too. The guy has played his entire career in the same PP unit as Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly. He has also been the 3rd best forward on that team for a long time.

Call me crazy but i'd rather take the guy who hasn't been below PPG in his Playoff career since his rookie season, instead of the guy whose own fans want him traded after every single Playoff run they've had. It's not like he's damaged goods or anything but it's ridiculous that you point out he's just as good offensively but Rantanen has twice the point totals in the Playoffs. He may have benefit from playing with MacKinnon but like mentioned, Marner does get his fair share of ice with Matthews and Nylander especially in the Playoffs where they load up late and his numbers are still brutal.

Rantanen is going to get paid more. Comfortably more, and it's because of the first sentence. Playoff beast vs. Playoff ghost. I'm sure Marner will get a huge contract from somewhere too because there are plenty of teams and especially owners who just want their team to get into the Playoffs and start building from there. They can afford to pay big on Marner because he can certainly get you there, just likely not further.

 

[895]

Our big game hunting season is next offseason. Presumably Ovie retires or signs a small one year deal, Carlson retires or takes a cut, cap jumps 8m. Suddenly we have a lot of space.

 

[Marshall]

@Krieger Bot did some damned fine work in this post as far as cost-controlled "targets" meeting certain criteria here (message #7778):

Post in thread 'The 2024-2025 Roster Thread'

Yesterday at 8:25 AM

For anyone interested here's forwards between 24-27 with no trade protection, 150+ games in past 3 years, and cumulative 5v5+PP goals above replacement over past 3 years. Apologies in advance for the big graphic. combo of puckpedia and evolving hockey

View attachment 976439

Heh - I did something similar the other day. The following is a list of all forwards who:

1) Are between 23 and 32;
2) Have no trade restrictions;
3) Either have some term left after this year or are an RFA;
4) Have been getting top-6 ice time over the past year and a half;
5) Have been scoring at a top-6 rate in terms...

• Krieger Bot

• 

 

[Jags]

Rantanen is going to get paid more. Comfortably more, and it's because of the first sentence. Playoff beast vs. Playoff ghost.

Who knows what affects playoff performance? During Marner's time there, Toronto's coaching has been all over the place, the organization tampers with chemistry constantly, ant the guy's too talented to be reduced to such a narrow classification.

We had a legendary clutch performer famously waffle on a yawning net at the most crucial moment ever. And the one time the postseason DID work out for us, crucial games were won by Andre Burakovsky and Lars Eller. On the one hand, shit happens; and on the other hand, even blind squirrels occasionally find a nut.

We've got a pretty solid front office, and Carbery probably has real insight into Marner. I think we can trust their judgment if they decide Marner's worth pursuing and paying. Your mileage may vary.

Our big game hunting season is next offseason.

Probably, but it depends on what's available. As it looks now, UFAs at that point look to be (assuming McDavid stays put) -- Panarin at 34, Eichel at 29, Laine at 28, Connor at 29, Schmaltz and Tuch at 30...

Marner and Rantanan at 28 look pretty good when you consider most of the alternatives. Maybe we get something via trade, maybe McDavid wants to pull the ripcord. Whatever. You can see why people are interested in maybe making a move this offseason if we can figure it out.