Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[qc14]

They should absolutely re-sign both Chychrun and LT and not doing so would be a pretty big failure IMO.

That being said ... I would much rather their numbers start with an 8 and a 5 than a 9 and a 6. All of their recent respective comps have been well below those numbers. Yes, the cap is going up, but even if it jumps to say $96M that's only a 9% increase. A 9% increase on Hanifin's deal puts you at exactly $8M. D'Accord and Blackwood signed their deals with the same cap environment and they are at $5M and $5.25M.

 

[Langway]

I would move Lapierre & Miro in the right deal, just not for a rental. They have what may be a rare opportunity here. If they can add a legit top sixer that can help drive the bus for a run or two in exchange futures that don't seemingly profile to do so...they probably should. Not like they don't have numbers behind them coming...

It's more a question of what's out there? Cozens was the closest thing to a smart idea on Seravalli's trade board but isn't quite ideal. They probably need more of a LW anyway. Failing that I'd take a flier on Frederic I guess for the 3LW spot. Nothing great but perhaps another glue guy type.

It may also be that no addition is as consequential as Strome finding his game again. That needs to be the top priority of the staff in the second half somehow some way. I would go as far as trying him between Protas and Wilson instead of loading up PLD's line as though regular season games were the stuff of prime match-up mentality. They need to be able to dictate. Surrendering on that front narrows margins pretty uncomfortably.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

That cultural impact might move the needle more than an older outsider who just parachutes in, even if they have proven production.

Idk, I think at the end of the day these guys are all pro’s and they know it’s a results business. 3rd line has been a weak link all year, can’t see anyone catching feelings if management goes out and addresses that.

If anything I’ve been impressed with the way the team has embraced and rallied around TDL adds in the past. I remember Raffl and/or Johan Larsson taking big hits and guys dropping the gloves for them no hesitation.

I've been reflecting on Leonard at the WJC and he did well on the dot and think his drive will help him if given the chance to transition to C. If it doesn't work shift him to one of the wings and slot Eller back in. But I'm starting to think he may fit as a C long term. Don't know if we don't try.

It’s an interesting thought. When’s the last time he played center with any regularity?

 

[Melkor]

If Chychrun seeks a contract to settle down in one place till the end of his prime years, a good ol' 8x8 is his best bet. They won't offer him more than that and he's not worth more than that. He'a very, very good at what he does but unless he's Cale Makar, I'd rather spend 9+ to stuff that offense with talent as much as possible. Thompson is a more difficult gauge at this point. If he carries on with this level of play and is willing to bet on himself, I'd offer him 4x2 and watch how it plays out. If he wants the money...well 5x5 maybe and even that is pretty risky but I guess they wouldn't have much of a choice anyway.

 

[895]

Chych 8x8

LT 5x5.5

get it done

 

[Langway]

Canucks’ J.T. Miller will remain No. 1 on Trade Targets board until he’s traded

Miller is one of seven new players featured on the latest board, six weeks from the March 7 deadline.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

New trade board. Slim pickings. I suppose Pageau with some retention on the cheap could be somewhat serviceable...

 

[qc14]

I've been reflecting on Leonard at the WJC and he did well on the dot and think his drive will help him if given the chance to transition to C. If it doesn't work shift him to one of the wings and slot Eller back in. But I'm starting to think he may fit as a C long term. Don't know if we don't try.

He hasn't played C at all in his junior career even though he's definitely been in some situations where it wouldn't have been ridiculous to try it (like at BC this year). Not sure I like this idea, and I especially don't like trying it as soon as he gets to the NHL

 

[Misery74]

If Chychrun seeks a contract to settle down in one place till the end of his prime years, a good ol' 8x8 is his best bet. They won't offer him more than that and he's not worth more than that. He'a very, very good at what he does but unless he's Cale Makar, I'd rather spend 9+ to stuff that offense with talent as much as possible. Thompson is a more difficult gauge at this point. If he carries on with this level of play and is willing to bet on himself, I'd offer him 4x2 and watch how it plays out. If he wants the money...well 5x5 maybe and even that is pretty risky but I guess they wouldn't have much of a choice anyway.

Thompson is gonna get at least $6m IMO. I would be happy with 6x6 now, but who knows.

 

[Misery74]

I would move Lapierre & Miro in the right deal, just not for a rental. They have what may be a rare opportunity here. If they can add a legit top sixer that can help drive the bus for a run or two in exchange futures that don't seemingly profile to do so...they probably should. Not like they don't have numbers behind them coming...

It's more a question of what's out there? Cozens was the closest thing to a smart idea on Seravalli's trade board but isn't quite ideal. They probably need more of a LW anyway. Failing that I'd take a flier on Frederic I guess for the 3LW spot. Nothing great but perhaps another glue guy type.

It may also be that no addition is as consequential as Strome finding his game again. That needs to be the top priority of the staff in the second half somehow some way. I would go as far as trying him between Protas and Wilson instead of loading up PLD's line as though regular season games were the stuff of prime match-up mentality. They need to be able to dictate. Surrendering on that front narrows margins pretty uncomfortably.

Could Carberry save Zegras? Young, fast, talented, but seems like a good change of scenery candidate.

Obviously, that’s a hockey trade. So Jimi/Miro could be on the table.

 

[qc14]

Thompson is gonna get at least $6m IMO. I would be happy with 6x6 now, but who knows.

With the Blackwood and D'Accord contracts recently $6Mx6 would feel like a huge loss for the team to me

 

[Misery74]

With the Blackwood and D'Accord contracts recently $6Mx6 would feel like a huge loss for the team to me

Those actually seem like good comparisons.

Where will Charlie go? Can they sign Thompson, and sit on the news?

 

[Kazer]

I would move Lapierre & Miro in the right deal, just not for a rental. They have what may be a rare opportunity here. If they can add a legit top sixer that can help drive the bus for a run or two in exchange futures that don't seemingly profile to do so...they probably should. Not like they don't have numbers behind them coming...

It's more a question of what's out there? Cozens was the closest thing to a smart idea on Seravalli's trade board but isn't quite ideal. They probably need more of a LW anyway. Failing that I'd take a flier on Frederic I guess for the 3LW spot. Nothing great but perhaps another glue guy type.

It may also be that no addition is as consequential as Strome finding his game again. That needs to be the top priority of the staff in the second half somehow some way. I would go as far as trying him between Protas and Wilson instead of loading up PLD's line as though regular season games were the stuff of prime match-up mentality. They need to be able to dictate. Surrendering on that front narrows margins pretty uncomfortably.

I just don't see trading for a center as a fit (both a mixture of having Eller and Eller not being great on the wing). With two primary focuses (wanting someone who will actually FIT on the 3rd line and someone who doesn't push Eller to wing), the obvious trade target to me is Ryan Donato. Maybe he doesn't move the needle, but I think he's clearly better than Frank/Vrana/Raddysh, would be happy playing 3rd line minutes, and would not push Eller to the wing. My next choice would be Brazeau from Boston.

Feels like one second round pick (we have two) would be sufficient. Note that I looked only at those on Seravalli's trade board.

Other guys I looked at:
Gourde (would push Eller to wing)
Nelson (would push Eller to wing)
Pageau (would push Eller to wing)
Hall (would want to be top 6 IMO)
Palmieri (would want to be top 6 IMO)
Tanev (doesn't move the needle IMO)

 

[MW6]

What about Jason Zucker?

 

[Calicaps]

I would move Lapierre & Miro in the right deal, just not for a rental. They have what may be a rare opportunity here. If they can add a legit top sixer that can help drive the bus for a run or two in exchange futures that don't seemingly profile to do so...they probably should. Not like they don't have numbers behind them coming...

It's more a question of what's out there? Cozens was the closest thing to a smart idea on Seravalli's trade board but isn't quite ideal. They probably need more of a LW anyway. Failing that I'd take a flier on Frederic I guess for the 3LW spot. Nothing great but perhaps another glue guy type.

It may also be that no addition is as consequential as Strome finding his game again. That needs to be the top priority of the staff in the second half somehow some way. I would go as far as trying him between Protas and Wilson instead of loading up PLD's line as though regular season games were the stuff of prime match-up mentality. They need to be able to dictate. Surrendering on that front narrows margins pretty uncomfortably.

Agree. Strike has been excellent since arriving in DC so these past several weeks are the anomaly. Get him back up to speed and things in the top 6 could look very different.

 

[Melkor]

Thompson is gonna get at least $6m IMO. I would be happy with 6x6 now, but who knows.

Thompson is a good goalie but he didn't have a job after last season. He's currently on a vet minimum. To pay him 6x6...I guess it's not that much more expensive than 5x5 but the optics and the history if this type of contracts are sending a pretty clear message - you'd be a fool if you didnt give him another tryout contract, obviously with a different cap hit. The only case in which I'd consider signing him for more than 5x5 justifiable is if they make the finals and he's one of the main reasons why.

 

[Melkor]

On another note...is it too early to say yet or Frank has become a regular in this lineup going forward? If Leonard signs the contract today, where does he fit into all of this?

 

[qc14]

I just don't see trading for a center as a fit (both a mixture of having Eller and Eller not being great on the wing). With two primary focuses (wanting someone who will actually FIT on the 3rd line and someone who doesn't push Eller to wing), the obvious trade target to me is Ryan Donato. Maybe he doesn't move the needle, but I think he's clearly better than Frank/Vrana/Raddysh, would be happy playing 3rd line minutes, and would not push Eller to the wing. My next choice would be Brazeau from Boston.

Feels like one second round pick (we have two) would be sufficient. Note that I looked only at those on Seravalli's trade board.

Other guys I looked at:
Gourde (would push Eller to wing)
Nelson (would push Eller to wing)
Pageau (would push Eller to wing)
Hall (would want to be top 6 IMO)
Palmieri (would want to be top 6 IMO)
Tanev (doesn't move the needle IMO)

I mean all of the guys you listed here totally could play wing too, as could Strome, as could Eller. I'd rather have too many centers or too many top 6 guys than too few. The entire point of getting a big rental to me is to allow either the rental or McMichael to play "down" a line and dominate, while also giving Carbery more flexibility if someone isn't playing well.

 

[qc14]

On another note...is it too early to say yet or Frank has become a regular in this lineup going forward? If Leonard signs the contract today, where does he fit into all of this?

I think Frank has clearly jumped Lappy and Miro and most likely has jumped Vrana as well. Milano is a big fat question mark to me in every single way. Has he played great? Absolutely. Am I losing sleep taking him out of the lineup if they make a big move for someone else? Not really.

As for Leonard I think he fits in to the same spot he has always fit in this year once it was clear the team is good -- he will probably get into 2 or 3 games that don't matter at the very end of the season (which will probably be all he has time for given the Frozen Four) and then get great experience as a black ace for the playoffs. I would be shocked if they put him in right away ahead of even Miro or Lappy, let alone Frank.

 

[caps4cup]

CMM-Strome-Ovechkin needs to stop.

I get that the current Dubois line has been dominant, but the above line has a 31% xGF% right now. With the current top 6, it’s by far the worst line you could create. If you’re intent on keeping Strome with Ovechkin, both Protas and Wilson have been much better on their wing (and more functional) than CMM. Strome and Ovechkin are both slow with almost no forechecking presence. CMM has speed but isn’t heavy on pucks or along the boards.

If you move Protas with them, CMM worked really well with Dubois-Wilson earlier in the year. If you move Wilson with them, that trio has a 56% xGF% together the last 3 seasons, while Dubois is probably their best player right now and CMM/Protas have played together a ton the last 3 seasons (with a 53% xGF%).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

CMM-Strome-Ovechkin needs to stop.

I get that the current Dubois line has been dominant, but the above line has a 31% xGF% right now. With the current top 6, it’s by far the worst line you could create. If you’re intent on keeping Strome with Ovechkin, both Protas and Wilson have been much better on their wing (and more functional) than CMM. Strome and Ovechkin are both slow with almost no forechecking presence. CMM has speed but isn’t heavy on pucks or along the boards.

If you move Protas with them, CMM worked really well with Dubois-Wilson earlier in the year. If you move Wilson with them, that trio has a 56% xGF% together the last 3 seasons, while Dubois is probably their best player right now and CMM/Protas have played together a ton the last 3 seasons (with a 53% xGF%).

Yep…..CMM can’t do the heavy lifting required to make that line work. He’s only a complimentary player and he’s fallen off a cliff of late. They need to figure out how to get Strome (and CMM) back on track.

 

[caps4cup]

On another note...is it too early to say yet or Frank has become a regular in this lineup going forward? If Leonard signs the contract today, where does he fit into all of this?

I think I’d go with:

Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson
Protas-Dubois-Leonard
xxx-McMichael-Frank
Duhaime-xxx-xxx

As a rough draft for the forwards next season. McMichael could obviously fit into the top 6 as well or slide over to 3LW.

From my estimates, without their UFA’s, RFA’s, and goalies, that would give them about $27mil in cap room with an assumed salary cap of $92.5mil. Assuming they have a 13th forward and 7th defensemen around league minimum, they should have around $25.2mil in space for 3 forwards, 1 defenseman, and 2 goalies.

 

[caps4cup]

Yep…..CMM can’t do the heavy lifting required to make that line work. He’s only a complimentary player and he’s fallen off a cliff of late. They need to figure out how to get Strome (and CMM) back on track.

Yeah he’s still taken a big leap but he just doesn’t complement those two at all. He’s still top 10 in xG but his finishing has regressed and he’s also seeing less PP time than earlier in the year. He’s still really good - that line is just an awful fit for both he and the Strome/Ovechkin duo.

 

[Kazer]

What about Jason Zucker?

Rumor mill is that Buffalo is going to re-sign him.

Pushing McMichael to the 3rd line would open up some options, but I also didn't love McMichael and Eller together either. GMCP/BM have their work cut out for them.

Despite his issues, I would not consider moving Strome to wing. He's actually our best FO guy at 55% (next is Eller). And I really don't like Eller at wing. He's not fast enough.

 

[Melkor]

I think Frank has clearly jumped Lappy and Miro and most likely has jumped Vrana as well. Milano is a big fat question mark to me in every single way. Has he played great? Absolutely. Am I losing sleep taking him out of the lineup if they make a big move for someone else? Not really.

As for Leonard I think he fits in to the same spot he has always fit in this year once it was clear the team is good -- he will probably get into 2 or 3 games that don't matter at the very end of the season (which will probably be all he has time for given the Frozen Four) and then get great experience as a black ace for the playoffs. I would be shocked if they put him in right away ahead of even Miro or Lappy, let alone Frank.

I think if someone like CMM keeps sucking hard, you better try Leonard somewhere in that top-9 and I really don't care if it's CMM or somebody else down the lineup who gets to sit in the press box because of that. If he earns the spot in those games then he should play. He woudn't be the first nor last who would get playing time by just arriving for the playoffs.

I think I’d go with:

Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson
Protas-Dubois-Leonard
xxx-McMichael-Frank
Duhaime-xxx-xxx

As a rough draft for the forwards next season. McMichael could obviously fit into the top 6 as well or slide over to 3LW.

From my estimates, without their UFA’s, RFA’s, and goalies, that would give them about $27mil in cap room with an assumed salary cap of $92.5mil. Assuming they have a 13th forward and 7th defensemen around league minimum, they should have around $25.2mil in space for 3 forwards, 1 defenseman, and 2 goalies.

I think if everything is as it is by the end of the season they should return to the idea of trading CMM. Or Lapierre. Or both and add a pick or two to get better. They need to address the lack of real talent up front and on the right D side.

 

[Langway]

Could Carberry save Zegras? Young, fast, talented, but seems like a good change of scenery candidate.

Obviously, that’s a hockey trade. So Jimi/Miro could be on the table.

It could work but I don't know that the staff would have the time to dedicate to a potential high maintenance player. A more proven, reliable, mature lower maintenance player seems preferable. A change of scenery could perhaps do wonders for him as it has for others. But to fast-track that adjustment is easier for some. That very likely needs to be part of their thinking at that deadline unless the upside is overwhelming (those types rarely seem to switch teams at the deadline).

The Donato idea may be a good one. He scores 5v5. He'd be third on the Caps behind Protas/CMM. Could be decent value anyhow.