Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

Kalopsia

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Even if it was time to go all in, which I'd disagree with as we just started with this new core, I don't think our needs are great enough to trade a first.

Our only large hole right now is 3C. You could argue 3LW too, but we have Miro and Leonard coming up. I'd be weary spending a first on either of those positions, but I am easily seduced by Stanley Cup dreams.


I love ROR as a player and would be super excited to get him. But I can't help think we'd be falling into the same trap the Kings did with Dubois. Neither Dubois or ROR are 3Cs, It might not be a good fit.

Perhaps if we got someone like ROR the "4th line" would have to be an actual 4th line.
That's my thinking as well. If the Caps go out and spend big to "fix" the 3rd line, I can't imagine they'd keep playing an XXX-ROR-Mangiapane line 10-12 minutes a night like they're doing right now. At that point do you just make the lines 1A-D and give them all even playing time? I guess it'd be a good problem to have, but it seems like an inefficient use of resources.
 
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AlexModvechkin8

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3LW and 3C are the only holes at the moment and the 3LW will be solved when Leonard comes in April and Mangiapane shifts to the left. Given their successes at the moment, there’s not a glaring need to shore up those spots and they have the leeway to let Lappy figure it out.

Not too many UFA centers that make a ton of sense to rent this year at the deadline. Maybe Yanni Gourde if Seattle is out of it. Nick Bjugstad, Alex Kerfoot, and Mikael Granlund could be decent stopgaps though not sure any of them are big upgrades.

Rumor has it that Trent Frederic might be available. Could be interesting to see what a potential Lapierre/Frederic swap could look like if Boston decides they want a player with higher upside and Washington wants a more prototypical bottom six center.
 

Hivemind

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Very much against trading Lapierre.
Very much in favor of dangling the 1st round pick, should the Capitals still be in a good position with favorable underlying metrics approaching the trade deadline.


The 3rd line is the obvious weakness, and is presumably best fixed with a 3C addition. However, I am equally hesitant with the goaltending. Both goalies have been fine, neither is a glaring issue, but nor am I convinced that either is going to step up for a deep playoff run. LT is obviously the more trustworthy of the two, in my opinion. The hard part is that there's real limited options in terms of who I would trust more that are available, and hitting up a team like Carolina for a goalie feels like a likely non-starter.

Beyond that, a low-cost addition of a 7D upgrade would also be beneficial.
 
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Kalopsia

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Anyone willing to bet on Kotkaniemi? Have Carberry working his magic on him!
Absolutely not. His "hot" start this year is just him being along for the ride with Necas's hot start in a super sheltered role. Historically he hasn't produced despite getting sheltered minutes and PP time with pretty good linemates (most frequent in Carolina have been Necas, Teravainen, and Svechnikov) and no PK responsibilities, and he's signed at 4.82M through 2030. He's not a "square peg, round hole" guy, he's been given every opportunity to succeed by the Canes and he just hasn't. Worst thing we could do is bail them out of that albatross of a contract.
 
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ovikovy817

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I'm sure Caps are not the only team with a problem on the 3rd line. Having 9 forwards playing good hockey and knowing their roles (line 1, 2 and 4) is already very good. We all know that basically the 3rd line is the 4th line in minutes. So if we can have a good game from the 3rd line every 4-5 games (where they play a major role, scoring goals, ...) that would be good.

On the other side, if you want to win a Cup, a very good 3rd line is always a key (I suppose?) And our own 2018 3rd line was great.
 

Kalopsia

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The numbering of the lines is so weird. Going strictly by time together at 5 on 5 per game, this is the actual ordering. I'm excluding the first game for the Ovie and Lapierre/Sgarbossa lines because that was before Mangiapane and Protas switched spots.

LineGP5 on 5 TOI5 on 5 TOI/g
McMichael-PLD-Wilson14139:049:56
Duhaime-Dowd-Raddysh14136:349:45
Ovie-Strome-Protas13118:379:07
Vrana/Milano-Lapierre/Sgarbossa-Mangiapane1392:277:07

Our supposed 4th line is actually our co-1st line, and our 1st line is really our 3rd? And it feels wrong to me to talk about the Lapierre/Sgarbossa line as our 3rd line when they're a distant 4th in ice time.
 
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twabby

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More charts:

GAR:
1731450078754.png


xGAR:
1731450121393.png


Note that a 50th percentile player is around 1.0 GAR/xGAR so this chart doesn't mean Nic Dowd is bad. It just means the team has broken the charts so far.

Small sample sizes and these numbers will change, but it's exciting to see the team clicking so far.
 
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Ovechkins Wodka

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I would like to give Lappy a chance at wing. But it seems with recent games on Nacho Duty and this trade he might not in the lineup for a while. I would rather him playing every night in Hershey over the press box.

If back to Hershey is he a Wing or Center?
 

Langway

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Older and slower. No bueno.
Bigger, stronger and better at faceoffs/PK, tho. That's a fine trade-off since it's not like Lapierre has been using his speed to his advantage that often. Sgarbossa has been out-playing him so 3C was the obvious weakness if they were serious about competing. Maybe not their last move, though. Once Milano is ready to return I could see him joining Lapierre in Hershey (assuming he clears waivers).

Have to think Lapierre's path back to DC would have to come at LW in the short-term, albeit while biding his time playing C in the AHL. He's just not strong enough to man center ice against NHL competition...although I'm sure more of a rebuilding team that's center-needy would happily invest through those growing pains...
 

JayBeagleFanAccount

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More charts:

GAR:
View attachment 929695

xGAR:
View attachment 929696

Note that a 50th percentile player is around 1.0 GAR/xGAR so this chart doesn't mean Nic Dowd is bad. It just means the team has broken the charts so far.

Small sample sizes and these numbers will change, but it's exciting to see the team clicking so far.
amazing what happens when kuznetsov and oshie are removed from this team; its saving wilson's career
 
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DWGie26

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Funny… catching up on two days of posts and so many adamantly opposed to Eller and here he is.

In terms of Lapierre at wing… no. I think the caps, going back to last year, said McMichael is going to wing (so embrace it). They also tagged Lapierre as a center. I think they will continue on developing him there.

does he stay in Washington or go to Hershey? they have the space but not the roster spots so he will stay in washington until Milano comes off IR. They won’t move him to LTIR unless they need to so he’ll sit on IR until we need the space since we can’t accrue.
 

wickedwitch

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In terms of Lapierre at wing… no. I think the caps, going back to last year, said McMichael is going to wing (so embrace it). They also tagged Lapierre as a center. I think they will continue on developing him there.
Then why are they keeping him in Washington if they aren't planning on playing him at wing? He's waiver eligible, so if he were literally only going to play in the case of injury, they could send him down in the meantime.
 

DWGie26

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Then why are they keeping him in Washington if they aren't planning on playing him at wing? He's waiver eligible, so if he were literally only going to play in the case of injury, they could send him down in the meantime.
I don’t think he needs games. And i don’t think they want to develop him as anything other than a center. So he hangs around an NHL environment, trains, films, etc. but at any moment when someone goes down he could be in. so you keep him here.
 

Kazer

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View attachment 930043

Yes but how does he look with his shirt off
I remember some freaking out about his pre-preseason injury (he missed like the first day of camp or something). Hilarious in retrospect.


More charts:

GAR:
Would you mind sharing what the GAR and xGAR looks like for our old/returning friend Mr. Eller?
 
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Dr John Carlson

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Very interested in the prospect of a Miro-Eller-Leonard line at the end of the year. Was NOT so interested in the prospect of a Miro-Lapierre-Leonard line at the end of the year, as it would be given like 7 minutes a night.

Eller gives that group a lot more credibility.
 
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HTFN

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Bigger, stronger and better at faceoffs/PK, tho. That's a fine trade-off since it's not like Lapierre has been using his speed to his advantage that often. Sgarbossa has been out-playing him so 3C was the obvious weakness if they were serious about competing. Maybe not their last move, though. Once Milano is ready to return I could see him joining Lapierre in Hershey (assuming he clears waivers).

Have to think Lapierre's path back to DC would have to come at LW in the short-term, albeit while biding his time playing C in the AHL. He's just not strong enough to man center ice against NHL competition...although I'm sure more of a rebuilding team that's center-needy would happily invest through those growing pains...
He just seems like a top 6 or "bust" kind of guy. Not that he'll actually bust out, just be underwhelming, but it's like the lights come on for him when he's being asked to wheel around out there creating what he can and they dim a lot when he takes on these lower roles.

On paper that doesn't suit promotion or anything, but I think the Caps would be flirting with disaster to move him without kicking the tires in a more offensively defined role.
 

Langway

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He just seems like a top 6 or "bust" kind of guy. Not that he'll actually bust out, just be underwhelming, but it's like the lights come on for him when he's being asked to wheel around out there creating what he can and they dim a lot when he takes on these lower roles.

On paper that doesn't suit promotion or anything, but I think the Caps would be flirting with disaster to move him without kicking the tires in a more offensively defined role.
He needs to earn that, though, and it's not like his current role hasn't been super insulated. If he can't show much of a spark in easy minutes he doesn't deserve better linemates. Being outplayed by Sgarbossa isn't a great look. I don't think his struggle are on anything more than him. It's not linemates, it's not the role, it's not the staff. He showed up expecting it to be easy it seems. Who knows what the deal is but I'm confident the staff will make the right call with him.

Maybe they'd regret dealing him. I wouldn't rush to throw him overboard or anything but for the right type of return (ideally a cheap quality RD or goalie prospect) I'd definitely consider it. Unlike with McMichael or Protas it's not like skating is the main issue. His skating is just fine. It's the strength and perhaps also the toolbox in being able to effectively simplify and win just enough battles to be effective. With so many wingers on the way the clock is definitely ticking if he doesn't start becoming a more formidable battler if nothing else.
 
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