Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[EroCaps]

The injury situation will not go away. These are old players who aggregate injuries on top of declining performance.

The front office is either totally delusional or just lying about their short term goals.

Chychrun would be a nice addition but it’s the wrong direction to go if you plan on winning a Cup anytime in the next 10 years.

 

[Hivemind]

Them putting Eller at 9 and Gus at 33 says a lot about the quality of their analysis.

I mean, they're including draft picks on the list. It's pretty clearly the list isn't ranked purely in terms of quality, but is some mixture of both quality and likelihood the asset will be traded. Eller is probably the most likely of the four Capitals on the list to be traded, so it makes sense that he's ranked above the rest.

 

[trick9]

like…..as in handsome? Hmmm


I’d like to see @twabby give us a detailed look into all the advanced stats and see what it shows….my eye test….shows a guy treading water at best.

Does that mean I think he’s done? Heck no…..if his hip is indeed ”fixed”……he should recover and get stronger during the off-season. No playoffs will probably help him big time…..

I don't think he's ever going to come close to the level where he was before. That said those comments about him doesn't exactly scream a guy contemplating retirement.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Good stuff thanks…

Backstrom is holding his own defensively. He actually has the 24th best overall defensive impact as measured by GAR/60 this season.

But among forwards who have 300+ minutes of overall ice time, Backstrom has the second worst GAR/60 when it comes to offensive impact in the entire NHL. He's ahead of only Jake Leschyshyn. When combined with his good defensive impact his overall GAR/60 is still the 9th worst among 420 qualified forwards in the NHL.

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Opinion Section:

It's not a tenable situation, and there's no way to sugarcoat it: Backstrom's return is a huge reason why the offense fell off a cliff IMO. There were other factors for sure, but his return is the top of the list in my estimation.

Even if you give Backstrom a full offseason to continue to strengthen his hip and even if there are no setbacks, what's the realistic best outcome next year? I don't think it's much more than an ok 3C and an adequate but not great PP QB. It'd be one thing if he was underperforming because he needs to get his timing back and his legs underneath him. But being at the bottom of the league is much lower than just underperforming, and it leads me to believe his time as an impact player in the NHL is over as sad as it is to conclude.

I think NB assuming a full off-season program, healthy and pain free could return to a 70+ point player/competent 2C next year.

 

[trick9]

Them putting Eller at 9 and Gus at 33 says a lot about the quality of their analysis.

Yeah i don't think the list is in any kind of order. Otherwise Erik Karlsson might just be tad above Nick Seeler.

 

[Langway]

I think NB assuming a full off-season program, healthy and pain free could return to a 70+ point player/competent 2C next year.

With Strome locked up for comparable PP work there's nothing Backstrom provides. I don't think the defense is even all that legit. When they play faster, more determined teams he's just completely out-paced in all areas.

 

[twabby]

I think NB assuming a full off-season program, healthy and pain free could return to a 70+ point player/competent 2C next year.

If his return this year was "meh" or merely below average then sure, I could maybe buy that.

But I don't see a scenario where he goes from almost the worst player in the NHL to a quality 2C after a surgery that no one returns from. I think that's so unlikely that it simply needs to be ignored as a possibility if management is looking to compete in the next season or two.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

wishful thinking yes….do I think he’s washed? No, not like you apparently….

His game has never been about skating….so give him good line-mates and PP1 time and yeah….I’m hopeful.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If his return this year was "meh" or merely below average then sure, I could maybe buy that.

But I don't see a scenario where he goes from almost the worst player in the NHL to a quality 2C after a surgery that no one returns from. I think that's so unlucky that it simply needs to be ignored as a possibility if management is looking to compete in the next season or two.

You undervalue the massive amount of time he missed and how serious the medical issue was is all. You see he’s medically cleared and expect a return to form by now, but to me, that’s like a bottom-level baseline to return to work IMO for athletes.

He might be the first guy to ever successfully come back from this surgery….maybe a little extra patience is warranted? I know he’s f‘ing earned it from Leonsis and company…..but I can’t speak for all fans of course….

If the Caps really believe he’s washed, I expect we’ll see some change in status around NB this summer.

 

[crazy8888]

I mean, they're including draft picks on the list. It's pretty clearly the list isn't ranked purely in terms of quality, but is some mixture of both quality and likelihood the asset will be traded. Eller is probably the most likely of the four Capitals on the list to be traded, so it makes sense that he's ranked above the rest.

I sped and did not see that. I thought this was based on quality alone. Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

I think that Strome's comments have to be considered in the context of his having just signed a $20m contract. I would have lotsa love for my employer and associates right after that kind of payday.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Yeah i don't think the list is in any kind of order. Otherwise Erik Karlsson might just be tad above Nick Seeler.

This from a couple of years ago when Frank Seravalli was the lead:

NHL Rumors: TSN Trade Bait Board released, Bruins in on Jack Eichel, and John Tortorella's future with Blue Jackets - The Daily Goal Horn
According to Seravalli it’s based on the star power of the player along with the likelihood they will be traded at the deadline.

So EK65 is now down to #29 since SJ reportedly is unlikely to move him.

idk what explains Jake the Snake @ #25.

 

[Langway]

Even on the off-hand chance 19 isn't washed they already have two perfectly mediocre top six centers that play a similar enough game. Backstrom is perhaps a bit better defensively but the athletic limitations make me question that. None of them should be killing penalties or be put in shutdown roles. I guess Kuznetsov could kill penalties given his better skating. That better skating is still why I'd hesitate to subtract 92 out mostly for the sake of it. I'm not sure they come out ahead on the exchange. Not that I wouldn't think about moving him but changing it up just to have a big $9.2M science experiment at 2C isn't overly persuasive on its own.

If they're wedded to the idea of letting Backstrom have every chance to find his game then their competitiveness in the near-term shouldn't be considered all that serious. They might as well not sacrifice the future much unless they've drawn certain conclusions about the viability of particular prospects in the system. I don't doubt this experiment becomes one of the main contributing factors of them missing again next season and perhaps netting another fairly high pick. He could certainly put in the work and improve his strength/explosiveness in the off-season but I don't expect a vintage player. If his game doesn't revolve around speed then where's the effective control of the game offensively 5v5? It's been very rarely evident so should that be chalked up to rusty timing? Given his experience? He's producing like a bottom sixer 5v5 and I tend to expect that for the most part. The days of him being an adequate top six center are likely over, esp. on a playoff team.

 

[crazy8888]

You undervalue the massive amount of time he missed and how serious the medical issue was is all. You see he’s medically cleared and expect a return to form by now, but to me, that’s like a bottom-level baseline to return to work IMO for athletes.

He might be the first guy to ever successfully come back from this surgery….maybe a little extra patience is warranted? I know he’s f‘ing earned it from Leonsis and company…..but I can’t speak for all fans of course….

If the Caps really believe he’s washed, I expect we’ll see some change in status around NB this summer.

Nothing has came out from the team or the players to indicate that NB is not planning to stick around. To the contrary so far all i heard was how much better he feels and that he is having fun out there. Baring any further hip complications or another major injury i expect him to play out the remainder of his contract here.

Whether or not he comes back to form is another questions. There have been glimpses of his elite play but overall he has not been much of a difference maker. Either way management already decided that this season is a wash so we all have to just wait to see how he play next year because he will 100% be here next year.

 

[Cappy76]

Is Backstroms lack of offense on him though? He came back and was immediately paired with Willy who had also been off all year and TJ who has been in and out all year. To me it’s a combo of him getting his timing back and the fact that this team has zero secondary scoring.

I’d expect him to be more comfortable next year and hopefully with some secondary pieces to put around him.

 

[Langway]

For the record: 7-12-0 with 19, 22-15-6 without. Still average without him, a borderline playoff team. But they had better timing IMO. Backstrom does notably have a strong expected goals ratio and has been a bit unlucky as far as goals against. But, still, he needs considerable improvement to be a 2C on a playoff team.

Combine that uncertainty with how Carlson will be if and when he returns and I don't think it's too unreasonable to softly punt on next season. They should make good deals if they're there to be made but certainly not go all-in given such uncertainty surrounding over 20% of their salary cap.

 

[895]

Carlson for Karlsson swap could happen any time since the trade deadline doesn't apply to us.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Even on the off-hand chance 19 isn't washed they already have two perfectly mediocre top six centers that play a similar enough game. Backstrom is perhaps a bit better defensively but the athletic limitations make me question that. None of them should be killing penalties or be put in shutdown roles. I guess Kuznetsov could kill penalties given his better skating. That better skating is still why I'd hesitate to subtract 92 out mostly for the sake of it. I'm not sure they come out ahead on the exchange. Not that I wouldn't think about moving him but changing it up just to have a big $9.2M science experiment at 2C isn't overly persuasive on its own.

If they're wedded to the idea of letting Backstrom have every chance to find his game then their competitiveness in the near-term shouldn't be considered all that serious. They might as well not sacrifice the future much unless they've drawn certain conclusions about the viability of particular prospects in the system. I don't doubt this experiment becomes one of the main contributing factors of them missing again next season and perhaps netting another fairly high pick. He could certainly put in the work and improve his strength/explosiveness in the off-season but I don't expect a vintage player. If his game doesn't revolve around speed then where's the effective control of the game offensively 5v5? It's been very rarely evident so should that be chalked up to rusty timing? Given his experience? He's producing like a bottom sixer 5v5 and I tend to expect that for the most part. The days of him being an adequate top six center are likely over, esp. on a playoff team.

Ok so paraphrasing, you think he’s likely washed and if the Caps do give him a chance to bounce back next season, they’re not serious about making the playoffs next year.

one guy…ok…I think they can do both.



I think they have to let him play now, he has to be seriously analyzed in video at the end of the year, and involve him and show everyone his numbers, and have a conversation….if he says “hey I feel good, just need more time to get strong, trust my health is good, and get my touch back”……I feel like unless Leonsis suddenly turned ruthless they’re going to believe in him. I think if you involve Ovy, you show him the data and analysis and he probably says give him next year.

However I would not be totally surprised by a sudden Backstrom retirement announcement due to injury this summer. I guess the most shocking would be to see him moved….

 

[HeyMattyB]

However I would not be totally surprised by a sudden Backstrom retirement announcement due to injury this summer.

I, for one, *would* be totally surprised if a long-term employee of the company willingly walked away from $18.4 million dollars in salary in order to give his billionaire boss a financial break.

 

[Langway]

Likely washed when it comes to the standard needed in a 2C on a playoff team in the Eastern Conference, yes. It'll come down to how he feels...and he feels great by all accounts. It's not a pain issue so retirement seems highly unlikely. His quality of life is greatly improved. It's a question of capacity it seems. You'd think they'll craft an off-season training plan and go from there. But as with Kesler you never know if that might not do more harm than good if pushed too far. As-is, though, he's not walking away early. He's not injured...he's just well behind pace.

If they didn't already have Strome extended maybe you'd have more patience allowing him to mostly just be a PP1 type 3C specialist. But that overlap is problematic. It was a strong developing target to add under the circumstances. Now it's a fairly awkward mix 1-2-3.

 

[Hivemind]

If Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Strome could just merge together like Voltron, we'd have a 1C.

 

[JohnCarlsaurus]

If Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Strome could just merge together like Voltron, we'd have a 1C.

Lmao right? I was just thinking if only we could give Kuzy Nick's effort and defensive ability we'd be set

 

[marcel snapshot]

And Backstrom's pt/60 is at 1.7, His career average is about 3.0. Kuzy this year is 2.7, and Strome is 2.4. NB is materially less productive offensively than ever before. It's a bummer

 

[BiPolar Caps]

If Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Strome could just merge together like Voltron, we'd have a 1C.

If only we could transplant Oshie's heart in to Mantha and Sheary's into Kuxnetsov.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

For the record: 7-12-0 with 19, 22-15-6 without. Still average without him, a borderline playoff team. But they had better timing IMO. Backstrom does notably have a strong expected goals ratio and has been a bit unlucky as far as goals against. But, still, he needs considerable improvement to be a 2C on a playoff team.

Combine that uncertainty with how Carlson will be if and when he returns and I don't think it's too unreasonable to softly punt on next season. They should make good deals if they're there to be made but certainly not go all-in given such uncertainty surrounding over 20% of their salary cap.

As if their winning ways were more than a simple hot streak….

I, for one, *would* be totally surprised if a long-term employee of the company willingly walked away from $18.4 million dollars in salary in order to give his billionaire boss a financial break.

Well I was suggesting “due to injury”, so he’d get paid.