Prospect Info: Caps Prospects General Discussion Thread - 2024-25

[Random schmoe]

Given the variability with goalie development and performance (and how decent ones can seemingly be found in later rounds) I generally don't like the idea of using a 1st rounder on one. But I recognize that we lack a high upside prospect at the position. I'm usually BPA, and if Ravensbergen is BPA at that point then I won't complain.

Plus, Ravensburger makes great puzzles, so I'll always think of them when thinking of him.

 

[qc14]

It's not a very good draft so typical rules probably shouldn't apply. IMO a case can be made for Ravensbergen as BPA as soon as around 18ish. Around then it seems like teams may be getting middle of the lineup players at best so I wouldn't count on him being available in the late 20's. But him not having as strong of a season behind a lesser team this year may help push him down. I don't know if there's a long list of alternatives that would manage to stand out from what's already in the system.

Ryabkin could be an upside play if available but there seem to be character concerns. Reschny or Schmidt may be too small. In contrast Wang is likely too much of a project. To categorically avoid a goaltender in some drafts requires going pretty deep in the bag and I'm not sure this one offers up enough quality to rule it out.

Trading up for Lakovic/Spence/Aitcheson would probably be my play if at all manageable but I doubt many GMs will fall for the depth of this class. Cootes and Nesbitt would be strong adds but mid 20's on it seems thin (again, particularly if looking for someone that would manage to rank very high in their system).

Nesbitt intrigues me and I'm sure they've seen quite a bit of him this year with the Little Pro connection. Wang seems like the exact kind of project that they like ... in the second round. I absolutely love Carter Bear but I think he's definitely played himself way out of the range they'll be picking in.

As for Ravensbergen, I'm pretty firmly in the "never take a goalie in the 1st round" camp. The uncertainty and longer development time just makes the opportunity cost not worth it to me.

 

[Silky mitts]

Goalies bust at a higher rate, in particular in the bottom half of the first round (graph from 1st link)

They take longer to develop than other positions, decline earlier, it’s easier to find all stars outside the first round - Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Holtby, etc, and any positive statistics of drafting a goalie in the first round outside the top 5 are driven by Vasi and Oettinger (see 2nd link for numerous other examples of goalies drafted in that range) And the success stories of teams that drafted successful goalies in the top 5 - Penguins paid to get rid of MAF and Price’s deal killed Montreal for years.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities By Position

After the first article about NHL Draft Pick Probabilities (link) was released, there were some asking for something similar but with different player positions being separated to see if there are any differences there. That raised my interest, so I decided to use the same data

dobberprospects.com

Drafting A Goalie In 1st Round Rarely Wise - SinBin.vegas

Before we even get into how good Spencer Knight is (and believe me, we will over the course of the next four weeks), I thought it was a good idea to take a look at highly drafted goalies to even begin to consider whether the match made in heaven should even be considered on June 21st.

sinbin.vegas